Marner's Next Contract

[therealkoho]

WTF?

hello LeaFlander

Auston Matthews talks Babcock, Tavares, contract, new lines - Sportsnet.ca

In light of the Tavares addition (and, perhaps, the Arizona summit), Babcock will start camp with a rejigged top six. Matthews is penciled in to centre Nylander and Patrick Marleau, who replaces Zach Hyman on his left side.

“I’m excited about it. Me and Patty are really close. He’s been in the league for so long. He such a smart player. For his age, he still skates like the wind. He put up really good numbers [27 goals] last year—a guy that can finish,” Matthews says. “To play with a guy of his calibre, what he can on the ice, it’s pretty exciting for myself.”

Slated to join the Tavares-Marner duo, Hyman—known more for hard work than soft hands—shrugs off the switch.

“We have so many great players, whoever you play with, you’re going to have a good linemate.” Hyman says. “Every year you start fresh.”

Feels a little extra fresh this year, doesn’t it, Toronto?

this was arranged when Babs and his wife went down to spend some time with the Matthews family

 

[PromisedLand]

hello LeaFlander

Auston Matthews talks Babcock, Tavares, contract, new lines - Sportsnet.ca



this was arranged when Babs and his wife went down to spend some time with the Matthews family

My WTF reply was more to the the text where you said Tavares handpicked to play with Marner and Hyman

Tavares' pick was to play with Marner had nothing to do with Hyman.

 

[therealkoho]

My WTF reply was more to the the text where you said Tavares handpicked to play with Marner and Hyman

Tavares' pick was to play with Marner had nothing to do with Hyman.

if you want to think that...then OK

 

[Notsince67]

it really doesn't matter what other teams offered him more of offered him less

Babcock offered him something he wanted that other teams couldn't match and that is "pick your linemates"

JT took Hyman and Marner

so all the LeaFlanders can finally stop whining about Babcock playing favourites and holding Matty back, so yes an NHL top 10 NHL centre knows how to butter his bread just like a an NHL knows how to put together an NHL line.

Mitch however many of you think it's crazy, needs to be signed for 8 years sooner rather then later, 8.5 sounds like the right number, in 3 years it's all going to be about "how in the world did we ever get this guy to sign so cheaply?"

Bump. How f***ing prescient is this?

 

[therealkoho]

Bump. How f***ing prescient is this?

That's some fine digging, that said if they had gotten Mitch signed to that we'd all be in hog heaven right now in possession of the NHLs best contract. From some of the scuttlebutt didn't Dubas try to get him for 9, right before Dubas gave 34 the walk away deal.

 

[TheRumble]

That's some fine digging, that said if they had gotten Mitch signed to that we'd all be in hog heaven right now in possession of the NHLs best contract. From some of the scuttlebutt didn't Dubas try to get him for 9, right before Dubas gave 34 the walk away deal.

Dubas actually did try to negotiate with the Marner camp before Tavares.

Marner scored 69 points in 82 games that year and led the team in scoring but the majority of his points came in the second half of the year where he was scoring at a 90 point pace - a pace that he's been scoring at ever since. The first half was largely spent in Babcock's doghouse.

After the year was done, the Marner camp reportedly asked for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 8-9 million for 7-8 years for an extension. They were betting on the fact that Marner was more the player he showed in the second half of that year than the first half, and wanted to be paid a premium based on his potential. Otherwise, that'd be a pretty significant overpay. The Leafs said no and the next season he put up 94 points and was able to command much more. This story would have been much bigger news but the Tavares signing completely overshadowed everything else that summer.

If you also recall, that was the year that Point and Rantanen also were negotiating for new deals and like Marner both guys chose to wait until the following year to extend.

Since that contract, you'll notice that most NHL teams now will elect to overpay a player a year early and bet on potential rather than wait and have to pay more for results later or go through a protracted contract dispute.

Examples:

Clayton Keller - Got a $7x8, coming off a 47 point season. He is now putting up a point per game, deal is a bargain now.

Nick Suzuki - Got an $7.8x8 coming off a 41 point in 56 game campaign, though he did have a good playoff. He still hasn't earned his AAV yet but he's show significant improvement since.

Jack Hughes - Got $8x8 coming off a year where he put up 31 points in 56 games, worse than Suzuki but his underlying numbers were far better. This deal paid off almost immediately. He might be on one of the best contracts in the league now.

One that might be a backfire could be Barzal - extended at 9.1x8 years and he hasn't been a point per game player since his rookie season but that deal doesn't kick in until next year so who knows.

Lesson to be learned here? Extend your young players a year early rather than having to pay them a year later when they are likely going to be much better.

 

[ACC1224]

That's some fine digging, that said if they had gotten Mitch signed to that we'd all be in hog heaven right now in possession of the NHLs best contract. From some of the scuttlebutt didn't Dubas try to get him for 9, right before Dubas gave 34 the walk away deal.

Marner offered to sign for 8.5x8 initially and Dubas turned him down. Mitch then played the season out and negotiations started again the next off season and we know how that ended

 

[Notsince67]

Dubas actually did try to negotiate with the Marner camp before Tavares.

Marner scored 69 points in 82 games that year and led the team in scoring but the majority of his points came in the second half of the year where he was scoring at a 90 point pace - a pace that he's been scoring at ever since. The first half was largely spent in Babcock's doghouse.

After the year was done, the Marner camp reportedly asked for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 8-9 million for 7-8 years for an extension. They were betting on the fact that Marner was more the player he showed in the second half of that year than the first half, and wanted to be paid a premium based on his potential. Otherwise, that'd be a pretty significant overpay. The Leafs said no and the next season he put up 94 points and was able to command much more. This story would have been much bigger news but the Tavares signing completely overshadowed everything else that summer.

If you also recall, that was the year that Point and Rantanen also were negotiating for new deals and like Marner both guys chose to wait until the following year to extend.

Since that contract, you'll notice that most NHL teams now will elect to overpay a player a year early and bet on potential rather than wait and have to pay more for results later or go through a protracted contract dispute.

Examples:

Clayton Keller - Got a $7x8, coming off a 47 point season. He is now putting up a point per game, deal is a bargain now.

Nick Suzuki - Got an $7.8x8 coming off a 41 point in 56 game campaign, though he did have a good playoff. He still hasn't earned his AAV yet but he's show significant improvement since.

Jack Hughes - Got $8x8 coming off a year where he put up 31 points in 56 games, worse than Suzuki but his underlying numbers were far better. This deal paid off almost immediately. He might be on one of the best contracts in the league now.

One that might be a backfire could be Barzal - extended at 9.1x8 years and he hasn't been a point per game player since his rookie season but that deal doesn't kick in until next year so who knows.

Lesson to be learned here? Extend your young players a year early rather than having to pay them a year later when they are likely going to be much better.

I thought 8.5 was a reasonable deal. Marner was scoring 1.13 ppg from Mid December until the end of the year without JT and everyone knew JT was coming to town and would play with him. All the indicators were there and was the price to pay to get an early contract in order to mitigate risk. McDavid was offered 15mm and gave 2.5mm back after completing seasons of 100 and 108 pts, a year before his contract was up for renewal. That kind of money was insane for those point totals but everyone knew it was the tip of the iceberg.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Still wouldve been manageable if not for the extended flat cap. Unfortunate circumstances to say it lightly.

 

[TheRumble]

I thought 8.5 was a reasonable deal. Marner was scoring 1.13 ppg from Mid December until the end of the year without JT and everyone knew JT was coming to town and would play with him. All the indicators were there and was the price to pay to get an early contract in order to mitigate risk. McDavid was offered 15mm and gave 2.5mm back after completing seasons of 100 and 108 pts, a year before his contract was up for renewal. That kind of money was insane for those point totals but everyone knew it was the tip of the iceberg.

At the time, the NHL was OBSESSED with getting players to sign with big discounts coming out of their ELCs ala the Pastrnak's $6.8x6 extension. Draisatl signed an $8.5 million dollar deal shortly after that and the Oilers were laughed out of the room for it. The next year he went supernova and that deal has been a bargain ever since.

I think what was happening was that around the same time a lot of players realized the cap was going up quite significantly every year and they didn't want to screw over themselves by being locked into crappy deals. Hence the amount of hold outs in the summer of 2018 and 2019.

Teams eventually came to realize after the Marner situation that if you have a stud prospect on your team coming of an ELC, you re-sign them early and pay them a premium to lock them down for term.

 

[therealkoho]

Dubas actually did try to negotiate with the Marner camp before Tavares.

Marner scored 69 points in 82 games that year and led the team in scoring but the majority of his points came in the second half of the year where he was scoring at a 90 point pace - a pace that he's been scoring at ever since. The first half was largely spent in Babcock's doghouse.

After the year was done, the Marner camp reportedly asked for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 8-9 million for 7-8 years for an extension. They were betting on the fact that Marner was more the player he showed in the second half of that year than the first half, and wanted to be paid a premium based on his potential. Otherwise, that'd be a pretty significant overpay. The Leafs said no and the next season he put up 94 points and was able to command much more. This story would have been much bigger news but the Tavares signing completely overshadowed everything else that summer.

If you also recall, that was the year that Point and Rantanen also were negotiating for new deals and like Marner both guys chose to wait until the following year to extend.

Since that contract, you'll notice that most NHL teams now will elect to overpay a player a year early and bet on potential rather than wait and have to pay more for results later or go through a protracted contract dispute.

Examples:

Clayton Keller - Got a $7x8, coming off a 47 point season. He is now putting up a point per game, deal is a bargain now.

Nick Suzuki - Got an $7.8x8 coming off a 41 point in 56 game campaign, though he did have a good playoff. He still hasn't earned his AAV yet but he's show significant improvement since.

Jack Hughes - Got $8x8 coming off a year where he put up 31 points in 56 games, worse than Suzuki but his underlying numbers were far better. This deal paid off almost immediately. He might be on one of the best contracts in the league now.

One that might be a backfire could be Barzal - extended at 9.1x8 years and he hasn't been a point per game player since his rookie season but that deal doesn't kick in until next year so who knows.

Lesson to be learned here? Extend your young players a year early rather than having to pay them a year later when they are likely going to be much better.

You can add Tim Stutzle to that bunch, his contract is excellent value presently. I see a lot of Dale Hawerchuk in his play.

 

[DarkKnight]

All I know, he’s worth every penny now.

 

[Drytoast]

Yup, he's earned his pay.

 

[ToneDog]

He should reach 100 points. Tkachuk will reach 100 for the second year on a row and signed for 9.5x8. What does Mitch command?

My guess is the Pasta deal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He should reach 100 points. Tkachuk will reach 100 for the second year on a row and signed for 9.5x8. What does Mitch command?

My guess is the Pasta deal.

Shoot, he's making almost that much now. If he was worth almost 11M last time around, he should be worth a lot more now, no? 1st team all-star, smartest player in hockey history and kills penalties to boot, I figure discussions start in the 13-14M range.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Shoot, he's making almost that much now. If he was worth almost 11M last time around, he should be worth a lot more now, no? 1st team all-star, smartest player in hockey history and kills penalties to boot, I figure discussions start in the 13-14M range.

That would be outside literally any comparable in the entire league. He isn't going to get a massive raise, that comes with the territory when they maximized value coming off of their entry level deals. There isn't like an infinite scaling to contracts in the NHL. He is making 11 now his cap is probably in the 12 range. Matthews is at 11.6 he probably is looking at the Mackinnon contract(roughly likely a bit more).

 

[Byron Bitz]

That would be outside literally any comparable in the entire league. He isn't going to get a massive raise, that comes with the territory when they maximized value coming off of their entry level deals. There isn't like an infinite scaling to contracts in the NHL. He is making 11 now his cap is probably in the 12 range. Matthews is at 11.6 he probably is looking at the Mackinnon contract(roughly likely a bit more).

Ya we only have to pay Marner what other contending teams would be willing to pay him, he’s not gonna sign with a rebuilding team and not many contending teams are in a position to clear 13 million in cap space to sign Marner. I think 12.5 x 8 gets it done.

 

[Gary Nylund]

That would be outside literally any comparable in the entire league. He isn't going to get a massive raise, that comes with the territory when they maximized value coming off of their entry level deals. There isn't like an infinite scaling to contracts in the NHL. He is making 11 now his cap is probably in the 12 range. Matthews is at 11.6 he probably is looking at the Mackinnon contract(roughly likely a bit more).

Ya we only have to pay Marner what other contending teams would be willing to pay him, he’s not gonna sign with a rebuilding team and not many contending teams are in a position to clear 13 million in cap space to sign Marner. I think 12.5 x 8 gets it done.

My post was made tongue in cheek but still, IMO he should have got 9-9.5 based on comparables last time but his agent asked for a lot more, even more than he eventually settled for and IIRC, that was only after the ask was leaked to the media prompting outrage from Leaf fans. And let's not forget that he only signed for 6 years at that price, those negotiations were as hardball as it gets. So if he's worth say 12M today, who's to stop his agent from asking for 13.8 or WE because the cap's maybe going up and so on? Another question is Marner's ego - how big a factor will that be? If his ego becomes a part of this then whatever Matthews signs for becomes very relevant - maybe he'd be willing to take a fair deal in principle but his ego won't allow him to take X dollars less than Matthews, we'll see. How this shakes out in the end is anyone's guess.

I guess it all comes down to attitude. With UFA status approaching, he can ask for the moon so does he let his agent negotiate for whatever he can get or sign for a reasonable price the way Rielly did?

 

[ACC1224]

He should reach 100 points. Tkachuk will reach 100 for the second year on a row and signed for 9.5x8. What does Mitch command?

My guess is the Pasta deal.

Matthews will sign first, no?
Marner will again use that as his comparable.

 

[Arzak]

My post was made tongue in cheek but still, IMO he should have got 9-9.5 based on comparables last time but his agent asked for a lot more, even more than he eventually settled for and IIRC, that was only after the ask was leaked to the media prompting outrage from Leaf fans. And let's not forget that he only signed for 6 years at that price, those negotiations were as hardball as it gets. So if he's worth say 12M today, who's to stop his agent from asking for 13.8 or WE because the cap's maybe going up and so on? Another question is Marner's ego - how big a factor will that be? If his ego becomes a part of this then whatever Matthews signs for becomes very relevant - maybe he'd be willing to take a fair deal in principle but his ego won't allow him to take X dollars less than Matthews, we'll see. How this shakes out in the end is anyone's guess.

I guess it all comes down to attitude. With UFA status approaching, he can ask for the moon so does he let his agent negotiate for whatever he can get or sign for a reasonable price the way Rielly did?

What I'm worried about is the fact that you have to negotiate with all three at the same time, since their NTC/NMC starts at the same time. They basically got their own little union going on.

They got the max contract for the least possible term on signing-bonus-heavy deals the last time around. Mind you they had close to no negotiation powers as RFAs.

But hey, I like the optimism on this board, we somehow assume they will sign reasonable contracts now, with UFA status pending and NMCs lined up.

 

[Petrus]

Give Both Matthews and Marner the McKinnon contract at 12.5 x 8.

 

[Notsince67]

That would be outside literally any comparable in the entire league. He isn't going to get a massive raise, that comes with the territory when they maximized value coming off of their entry level deals. There isn't like an infinite scaling to contracts in the NHL. He is making 11 now his cap is probably in the 12 range. Matthews is at 11.6 he probably is looking at the Mackinnon contract(roughly likely a bit more).

Panarin got 14.28% of the cap.
Cap goes up 4mm and you are looking at 12.4MM for an inferior player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

What I'm worried about is the fact that you have to negotiate with all three at the same time, since their NTC/NMC starts at the same time. They basically got their own little union going on.

They got the max contract for the least possible term on signing-bonus-heavy deals the last time around. Mind you they had close to no negotiation powers as RFAs.

But hey, I like the optimism on this board, we somehow assume they will sign reasonable contracts now, with UFA status pending and NMCs lined up.

Yup. Optimism is a beautiful thing but not sure how much optimism can be justified when M&M both got absolute sweetheart deal last time without the leverage they have now. We better have some playoff success this spring is all I can say, if we disappoint once again in the playoffs and the players start asking for megabucks it's going to be hard to take and the summer will be as unpleasant as it was after losing to MTL, if not worse even.

 

[Notsince67]

Matthews will sign first, no?
Marner will again use that as his comparable.

Or not sign first. Always a possibility.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Panarin got 14.28% of the cap.
Cap goes up 4mm and you are looking at 12.4MM for an inferior player.

Pasternak is a more recent comparable and got 13.64% of the cap, what's your reasoning for using Panarin instead?