Player Discussion Marner

[Antropovsky]

I have dealt with this guy many times.

He is promoting misinformation by providing stats that don't have enough samples.
A 5v5 GF/60 of 6:67 is impossible over an entire season. He's using only 200 minute TOI. Even McDavid and Draisaitl together only have GF/60 of 4.25 with 1200 minutes. If he doesn't know that then he shouldn't be posting.

How's that for stats? If you don't understand stats then don't listen to people who spew them with no context.

Nice strawman fallacy....taking one point from my post and attacking it and ignoring all the rest.

As I also posted Matthews has only a 1.55 and 1.35 g/60 with Marner over the last two full seasons. Which is very low for Matthews historically with all linemates (which I showed I provided examples). Shouldnt we expect Matthews to score more with Marner, rather than less?

Also...weve heard for years from Marner fans that Marner boosted Kadris stats. Guess what thst "sample size" a whole 420 mins.

Cant wait for you to flex your expert data analysis in your response.

 

[666]

Nice strawman fallacy....taking one point from my post and attacking it and ignoring all the rest.

As I also posted Matthews has only a 1.55 and 1.35 g/60 with Marner over the last two full seasons. Which is very low for Matthews historically with all linemates (which I showed I provided examples). Shouldnt we expect Matthews to score more with Marner, rather than less?

Also...weve heard for years from Marner fans that Marner boosted Kadris stats. Guess what that "sample size" is...a whole 420 mins.

Cant wait for you to flex your expert data analysis in your response. Try to avoid the strawman fallacy next time.

You clearly don't know what a strawman is when you post nonsense like 6.67 GF/60 which is impossible over any serious sample size.

 

[Antropovsky]

You clearly don't know what a strawman is when you post nonsense like 6.67 GF/60 which is impossible over any serious sample size.

Lol... first set of questions your asked and you duck? Can’t back up your claims? Can’t argue the rest of my data? Glad we can show everyone you’re all talk.

The point isn’t the 6.67 g/60 over 200 mins, it’s that Matthews was far more productive with two players making a combined $8 million versus Marner alone making $11 million. Recall the argument by Marner fans has long been that "Marner boosts Matthews scoring because of his incredible playmaking".

Even if it wasn’t sustainable, it’s unlikely that it would have dropped to the 3.5 g/60 Matthews had with Marner. That says a lot about Marner. And those terrible g/60 numbers aren’t just a small blipthey come from a significant sample size over two years (theres your sample size!)
No surprise that you Marner fans don’t want to talk about Matthews 1.33 and 1.57 g/60 over the past two seasons.

As I showed... Marner had a 1.8 with 40 year old Marleau. He had a 1.72 with Hyman. Over 2 g/60 with C.Brown.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner should comfortably move into the top 5 in points after this season.
Pretty incredible accomplishment when you consider most are secondary assists in blowouts.

 

[stickty111]

Some games will determine if he's changed. Even in regular season games against good physical teams, he struggles while others carry him. If he just learns to compete like Nylander, Marner would be more effective.

 

[666]

Lol... ducking out? Can’t back up your claims? Can’t argue the rest of my data? Glad we can show everyone you’re all talk.

You posted:
Matthews line w/Domi:

Gf/60: 6:67
Ga/60: 3.77
Difference: +2.90

Matthews line w/Marner:
Gf/60: 3.58
Ga/60: 2.33
Difference: +1.25

I told you it was nonsense and it is.

Here's some real simple stats that you ignored that last time I presented them to you. 5v5 over the last 3 seasons to get the sample acceptable:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	205​	1808​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	215​	889​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	227​	829​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1559​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

Matthews is a superstar and does well with everyone.
Marner is a superstar. Marner with Tavares is as good as Nylander is with Matthews. Think about that.
Nylander is horrible with Tavares.

Why are you obsessed with Marner when you should be questioning Nylander?

Stop posting small sample sizes without context!!

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner should comfortably move into the top 5 in points after this season.
Pretty incredible accomplishment when you consider most are secondary assists in blowouts.

View attachment 914012

Yup..incredible. Just imagine if Marner played in the dead puck era with Mats Sundin, with the linemates Mats had! Truthfully its doubtful Marner wouldve even made the NHL in that era, especially conzidering his playoff struggles.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner should comfortably move into the top 5 in points after this season.
Pretty incredible accomplishment when you consider most are secondary assists in blowouts.

View attachment 914012

More likely 6th I think.

Matty and Mitch at 5 and 6 and Willy at 9 after a reasonable year for each.

Sad in a way - they're blowing by all the great players who played in the era of low scoring games before expansion.

Barring injury, by next Saturday Nylander will be in the top 20 of games played in a Leafs uniform.

 

[ACC1224]

You posted:
Matthews line w/Domi:


I told you it was nonsense and it is.

Here's some real simple stats that you ignored that last time I presented them to you. 5v5 over the last 3 seasons to get the sample acceptable:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	205​	1808​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	215​	889​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	227​	829​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1559​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

Matthews is a superstar and does well with everyone.
Marner is a superstar. Marner with Tavares is as good as Nylander is with Matthews. Think about that.
Nylander is horrible with Tavares.

Why are you obsessed with Marner when you should be questioning Nylander?

Stop posting small sample sizes without context!!

Could you imagine if he showed up half the time like Nylander does.
Guessing that would be like Christmas for some.

 

[666]

Could you imagine if he showed up half the time like Nylander does.
Guessing that would be like Christmas for some.

What I find fascinating is people twisting around regular season stats to somehow imply that Marner is bad in the regular season. The cognitive dissonance in these people must be incredible. But even more surprising is how these people don't see how soft and bad defensively Nylander is especially compared to Marner. You don't need the fancy stats. The eye test is very clear. I don't understand how people that actually watch the games don't see it.

 

[666]

Sad in a way - they're blowing by all the great players who played in the era of low scoring games before expansion.

Who smoked and had a couple of beers between periods.

 

[ACC1224]

What I find fascinating is people twisting around regular season stats to somehow imply that Marner is bad in the regular season. The cognitive dissonance in these people must be incredible. But even more surprising is how these people don't see how soft and bad defensively Nylander is especially compared to Marner. You don't need the fancy stats. The eye test is very clear. I don't understand how people that actually watch the games don't see it.

It's always been so weird, pretty funny though.

 

[Roo]

i use this website: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pl...sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8479318

In Matthews rookie year, Hyman played the most mins with Matthews.

Taking Matthews off Marners line is what allowed Matthews to hit 70. They couldnt score together and Keefe specifically called out Marner (not Matthews) in the season for not playing good. Additionally, Marner also admitted that as Matthews linemates, they need to utilize space better because teams are double teaming Matthews. Obviously, Matthews being teamed up on was something the coaches knew.

2016
Hyman: 972 mins 1.72 g/60
Nylander: 624 mins 1.34 g/60
C.Brown: 411 mins 2.19 g/60

In 2023:
Bunting: 735mins 1.55 g/60
Marner: 539 mins 1.33 g/60
Nylander: 504 mins 1.54 g/60

2024
Marner: 720 mins 1.58 g/60
Knies 563 mins 1.6 g/60
Bertuzzi: 322 mins 2.42 g/60

Thank you for sharing, I will definitely take a look.

That said, I apologize, but I have to challenge a number of things you've noted, and your general reasoning here. Your argument is that since Matthews scored at a clip as high or higher with Domi, that Domi is an equivalent player to Marner. This is completely flawed thinking, in my opinion.

First off, your sample size is too small. Matthews is streaky goal scorer. He wasn't scoring 1g per game. He had a number of 2 goal games and hat tricks, and a bunch of games where he didnt score. For all we know, he was on a heater when Domi played alongside him. This is why sample size matters.

Second, is Matthews approaching 70 goals because of his wingers, or because he is a generational talent? I am inclined to believe the latter. Mats Sundin was a model of consistency with us, pretty much always a PPG player regardless of his linemates. He played with Mogilny and he played with Hoglund. Based on your logic, Hoglund was just as good as Mogilny. Sorry, not buying it.

Feels like you are cherry-picking stats to prove your argument, as opposed to digging into the data a bit deeper to really understand the numbers and what they mean.

 

[666]

It's always been so weird, pretty funny though.

I'm convinced that a small but very vocal minority of the fans here snapped during the Habs series and the exact moment was when Marner flipped it over the boards. They just snapped. They needed to blame someone, anyone, and it might as well be Marner because it couldn't be Matthews. After that, every game they watch they hope for Marner to have a bad game, make excuses if he has a good game and are just miserable most of the time because Marner is a superstar. I used to feel sorry for them because as you say, it REALLY is pretty funny, but now they're just wasting my time posting the same 5 talking points over and over.

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm convinced that a small but very vocal minority of the fans here snapped during the Habs series and the exact moment was when Marner flipped it over the boards. They just snapped. They needed to blame someone, anyone, and it might as well be Marner because it couldn't be Matthews. After that, every game they watch they hope for Marner to have a bad game, make excuses if he has a good game and are just miserable most of the time because Marner is a superstar. I used to feel sorry for them because as you say, it REALLY is pretty funny, but now they're just wasting my time posting the same 5 talking points over and over.

You're in a fantasy world, if you think its a small but vocal group of fans.

Its a very large group of fans, and guess you have somehow missed the large group of media too, including many former players saying hes been bad. Not just bad, so bad, some former players have gotten angry while discussing his play.

 

[666]

You're in a fantasy world, if you think its a small but vocal group of fans.

Guess you have somehow missed the media's countless articles, including many former players saying hes been bad. Not just bad, so bad former players get angry.

He'll be re-signed soon enough. Just stop posting stats that you don't understand. That's all we ask.

 

[Antropovsky]

He'll be re-signed soon enough. Just stop posting stats that you don't understand. That's all we ask.

No response again? You seem to have a history of making statements that you cant back up amd then ducking when people ask you questions regarding your statements. Lol

All we ask is you take the Marner glasses off and quit making statements you clearly know you cant back up.

 

[GoonieFace]

Can’t we all just get along. Some don’t like Mitch, some despise Mitch. Some are madly in love with Mitch.

I find it hard to believe any Leaf fan would be hoping for him to fail. Most Marner critics would gladly eat crow if he shows up in the playoffs. Please don’t throw his playoff stats on here and pretend he has been nothing more than a disappointment in the postseason.

 

[francis246]

Nice strawman fallacy....taking one point from my post and attacking it and ignoring all the rest.

As I also posted Matthews has only a 1.55 and 1.35 g/60 with Marner over the last two full seasons. Which is very low for Matthews historically with all linemates (which I showed I provided examples). Shouldnt we expect Matthews to score more with Marner, rather than less?

Also...weve heard for years from Marner fans that Marner boosted Kadris stats. Guess what that "sample size" is...a whole 420 mins.

Cant wait for you to flex your expert data analysis in your response. Try to avoid the strawman fallacy next time.

You’re completely ignoring match up factors the last two seasons and didn’t even bring up o zone vs d zone starts. I don’t have those numbers in front of me but I’m sure there are many factors that have led to that.

Are the numbers you provided just 5v5 gf/60? Or do they include PP?

 

[666]

No response again? You seem to have a history of making statements that you cant back up amd then ducking when people ask you questions regarding your statements. Lol

All we ask is you take the Marner glasses off and quit making statements you clearly know you cant back up.

Dude, c'mon. You have spent a ton of time trying to use stats to prove that Marner is not a superstar in the regular season. Think about that. Very very few people don't recognize Marners brilliance in the regular season. The worst thing that happened to you was learning how to find the with / without stats and now you spend a bunch of time sifting through them trying to find anything to make Marner look bad. But as I've mansplained to you many times before, you're not using them correctly. Remember, context and sample size. As for anything else you say, I'm not ducking you, I just don't care. Why would anyone care when your opinion is that Marner sucks in the regular season? The only thing that I care about is your misuse of stats because you might provide mis-information to people on here that don't know any better.

 

[francis246]

Yup..incredible. Just imagine if Marner played in the dead puck era with Mats Sundin, with the linemates Mats had! Truthfully its doubtful Marner wouldve even made the NHL in that era, especially conzidering his playoff struggles.

Gonna use a quote you like to use, who cares? Marner isn’t going to play in the dead puck era, so why are you bringing that up. It’s irrelevant.

 

[Roo]

5v5 over the last 3 seasons to get the sample acceptable:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	205​	1808​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	215​	889​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	227​	829​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1559​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

Matthews is a superstar and does well with everyone.
Marner is a superstar. Marner with Tavares is as good as Nylander is with Matthews. Think about that.
Nylander is horrible with Tavares.

This makes much more sense. Also when you consider how Tavares has declined the last couple years, it's even more impressive for Marner.

I suspect posters here think I am some kind of Marner fanboy. I am not. He can frustrate me too at times. But let's get real and give the kid the credit he deserves. He's not some scrub, and our team will be worse if he is gone. Some people think his cap dollars are best suited on other players. Debrusk signed for just under $7m aav (40 pt player). Would I rather have 2 Debrusks over Marner? Hellz no. Quality > Quantity every time.

 

[stickty111]

The fact of the matter is Marner shows up when he wants. It's usually against lower end teams. While Nylander's production stays the same no matter the situation. His compete amd willing to engage physically is much higher. The later has been a problem for Marner throughout. Until he learns to pass that test, it won't matter how many cool passes he makes.

 

[666]

Please don’t throw his playoff stats on here and pretend he has been nothing more than a disappointment in the postseason.

Warning these stats have little value because the sample size is too low but anything longer than three years loses its value as well.
As it turns out the playoff stats are similar to the regular season stats I posted above. playoffs 5v5 last three seasons:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	23​	196.3​	11​	7​	4​	3.36​	2.14​	61.11​
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	22​	174.8​	6​	7​	-1​	2.06​	2.40​	46.15​
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	25​	78.5​	4​	2​	2​	3.06​	1.53​	66.67​
Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	20​	50.8​	1​	3​	-2​	1.18​	3.55​	25.00​

Nylander is bad 5v5 in the playoffs.
Marner and Matthews are pretty good.
Marner even does fine with Tavares.
They all play on the same PP and it hasn't been great.
In general it's certainly not exclusively Marners fault that these guys can't get it done in the playoffs.

 

[Antropovsky]

You’re completely ignoring match up factors the last two seasons and didn’t even bring up o zone vs d zone starts. I don’t have those numbers in front of me but I’m sure there are many factors that have led to that.

Are the numbers you provided just 5v5 gf/60? Or do they include PP?

Just 5v5. Show the matchup infoif you don’t know what they are, you can’t argue they’re bad. They might even make him worse.

I’ve said it many times, we can’t account for every variable, but the overwhelming evidence against Marner stands out compared to other star players.

His lack of key skills (speed, shot speed, strength, and mental toughness), inability to drive playoff goals, frequent giveaways leading to goals against, and his streakiness (100 games without a PP goal, 18 playoff games without scoring) are all red flags. Coaches (Keefe, Babs) have acknowledged his streaky play, and even Marner admitted Matthews gets double teamed, leaving him space to operate...which should benefit him, but he cant capitalize on it.

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. It’s not a conspiracy, no matter what Marner fans say.