Player Discussion Marner

[Arzak]

Okay. Didn't realize that they were sharing. Yeah that's fine, I thought Rielly got stripped of it.

If he takes anything around 12 on a contract extension, he will earn back a lot of public good will. Hope that happens.

I'll have what you are smoking

How is a top 30 player (at best) on $12M salary earning back a lot of public good will?

Asking for a friend.

He is not getting 12 on an open market, only the Leafs/Kyle are stupid enough to pay him $11M.

That's before you consider his pathetic playoff performance.

 

[Racer88]

Okay. Didn't realize that they were sharing. Yeah that's fine, I thought Rielly got stripped of it.

If he takes anything around 12 on a contract extension, he will earn back a lot of public good will. Hope that happens.

Whaaaat. If he takes a small pay cut I doubt that would gain any fan good will

 

[thusk]

Hate to break you the news:

26, 27 year old Matthews 5v5 with Marner last two seasons:
2023: 539 mins, 1.33 g/60
2024: 720 mins, 1.55 g/60

27 year old Matthews with Domi:
2024: 206 mins, 3.19 g/60

22 year old Matthews 5v5 with 40 year old Marleau
2018-2019: 432mins, 1.8 g/60

22 year old Matthews 5v5 with Kasperi Kapanen
2018-2019: 591 mins, 1.52 g/60

22 year old Matthews g/60 5v5 was better with Kapanen and 40 year old Marleau than it has been with Marner the past 2 seasons.

Its actually possible an argument could be made that Matthews is actually a better goal scorer without Marner.

Matthews with Domi was producing at pretty high rate, im totally agree but they was also totally trash defensively together. Matthews allowed pretty close of 2x more goal alongside Domi than anyone else... With Domi its like 3,98 goal/60 against, without its like 2,25

But i'm agree statistically that doesn't go as high than it was in the past but at the same time that coincides at the moment Keefe start to use even more Matthews/Marner against exemple kucherov line, mcdavid line, Mckinnon line... It is a result of their play together or just result of challenge becoming stronger when they are together? I don't have the answer but yeah im agree than their stats offensively was not as good last 2 together

 

[Suntouchable13]

Leafs are stupid if they re-sign him before the playoffs are over. 12+ for a soft playmaking winger that won you zip is insanity.

 

[Antropovsky]

Matthews with Domi was producing at pretty high rate, im totally agree but they was also totally trash defensively together. Matthews allowed pretty close of 2x more goal alongside Domi than anyone else... With Domi its like 3,98 goal/60 against, without its like 2,25

But i'm agree statistically that doesn't go as high than it was in the past but at the same time that coincides at the moment Keefe start to use even more Matthews/Marner against exemple kucherov line, mcdavid line, Mckinnon line... It is a result of their play together or just result of challenge becoming stronger when they are together? I don't have the answer but yeah im agree than their stats offensively was not as good last 2 together

Matthews line w/Domi:
Gf/60: 6:67
Ga/60: 3.77
Difference: +2.90

Matthews line w/Marner:
Gf/60: 3.58
Ga/60: 2.33
Difference: +1.25

If you had a choice of line A, + an additional 8 million to spend vs line B without the extra money, which would you take?

If Marner is an 11 million dollar playmaker/defensive player, shouldnt we see a significant improvement of Matthews with Marner vs others? Especially with 3 Million journeyman Domi?

You wont find a goal scorer with Thornton who didnt improve by quite a bit with Thornton vs without. Also Thornton turned lesser players into much more productive goal scorers. Marner isnt and there is no real track record of him ever doing it.

While as ive shown, Matthews is generally scoring the same with or more with numerous players other than Marner, including Kapanen and 40 year old Marleau.

 

[Nineteen67]

Is Mitchy watching the crowd in Utah?

SLC is pretty nice place.

 

[Roo]

Matthews line w/Domi:
Gf/60: 6:67
Ga/60: 3.77
Difference: +2.90

Matthews line w/Marner:
Gf/60: 3.58
Ga/60: 2.33
Difference: +1.25

If you had a choice of line A, + an additional 8 million to spend vs line B without the extra money, which would you take?

If Marner is an 11 million dollar playmaker/defensive player, shouldnt we see a significant improvement of Matthews with Marner vs others? Especially with 3 Million journeyman Domi?

You wont find a goal scorer with Thornton who didnt improve by quite a bit with Thornton vs without. Also Thornton turned lesser players into much more productive goal scorers. Marner isnt and there is no real track record of him ever doing it.

While as ive shown, Matthews is generally scoring the same with or more with numerous players other than Marner, including Kapanen and 40 year old Marleau.

Very interesting... what is the sample size for games with Matthews-Domi and Matthews-Marner?

And didn't Tavares hit his career high in goals his first season with us, playing with Marner?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Tre shopping him huge.

 

[Antropovsky]

Very interesting... what is the sample size for games with Matthews-Domi and Matthews-Marner?

And didn't Tavares hit his career high in goals his first season with us, playing with Marner?

206 mins with Domi

720 mins with Marner

But as I said, the most gf/60 Matthews has hit with Marner was 1.94. Which is only marginally better than what Matthews hit at 22 years old (1.8) with 40 year old Marleau as his winger.

In his Rookie season, Matthews has 1.72 g/60 in nearly 1000 mins with Hyman

..in hindisight Marner hasnt helped him score more at all. An argument can be made that Marner actually hinders Matthews goal scoring. Especially looking at the last 2 seasons.

 

[Racer88]

Tre shopping him huge.

View attachment 913621

Ya but he hasn’t seen him in the playoffs or whining on the bench yet

 

[Roo]

206 mins with Domi

720 mins with Marner

But as I said, the most gf/60 Matthews has hit with Marner was 1.94. Which is only marginally better than what Matthews hit at 22 years old (1.8) with 40 year old Marleau as his winger.

In his Rookie season, Matthews has 1.72 g/60 in nearly 1000 mins with Hyman

..in hindisight Marner hasnt helped him score more at all. An argument can be made that Marner actually hinders Matthews goal scoring. Especially looking at the last 2 seasons.

Where do you find these numbers? Just curious, I have no idea.

Back to the topic though, I think taking numbers from last season when Matthews was trying to hit 70 is a bit misleading. 206 minutes with Domi is effectively 10 games or so, and we know he is a streaky scorer. In his rookie year, it's interesting you mention him playing with Hyman when his other winger was Nylander. But I certainly buy the argument that Matthews can be just as effective with other playmakers. Maybe even more effective. To me though, that isn't a slight on Marner, that is just how good Matthews is.

Going back to those first couple of years when Matthews was playing with Hyman and Nylander.... Who was Marner playing with? I mentioned Tavares' biggest year in my prior post. I believe he did the exact same thing with Kadri, his top two goal-scoring campaigns came with Marner, prior to Tavares arriving in Toronto.

We've seen it both ways with Babcock and Keefe, I am 100% in the camp of splitting up Matthews and Marner. But that is because Marner has clearly elevated the play of others. I just don't think Matthews needs that support, where others do.

 

[Evilhomer]

Only question is whether the Leafs give him $12 or $12.5, so it will probably be $12.25. I'll guess that they give him the full 8 years.

 

[leafs in five]

Hate to break you the news:

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I'll have what you are smoking

How is a top 30 player (at best) on $12M salary earning back a lot of public good will?

Asking for a friend.

He is not getting 12 on an open market, only the Leafs/Kyle are stupid enough to pay him $11M.

That's before you consider his pathetic playoff performance.

THIS^.

 

[Antropovsky]

Where do you find these numbers? Just curious, I have no idea.

Back to the topic though, I think taking numbers from last season when Matthews was trying to hit 70 is a bit misleading. 206 minutes with Domi is effectively 10 games or so, and we know he is a streaky scorer. In his rookie year, it's interesting you mention him playing with Hyman when his other winger was Nylander. But I certainly buy the argument that Matthews can be just as effective with other playmakers. Maybe even more effective. To me though, that isn't a slight on Marner, that is just how good Matthews is.

Going back to those first couple of years when Matthews was playing with Hyman and Nylander.... Who was Marner playing with? I mentioned Tavares' biggest year in my prior post. I believe he did the exact same thing with Kadri, his top two goal-scoring campaigns came with Marner, prior to Tavares arriving in Toronto.

We've seen it both ways with Babcock and Keefe, I am 100% in the camp of splitting up Matthews and Marner. But that is because Marner has clearly elevated the play of others. I just don't think Matthews needs that support, where others do.

i use this website: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pl...sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8479318

In Matthews rookie year, Hyman played the most mins with Matthews.

Taking Matthews off Marners line is what allowed Matthews to hit 70. They couldnt score together and Keefe specifically called out Marner (not Matthews) in the season for not playing good. Additionally, Marner also admitted that as Matthews linemates, they need to utilize space better because teams are double teaming Matthews. Obviously, Matthews being teamed up on was something the coaches knew.

2016
Hyman: 972 mins 1.72 g/60
Nylander: 624 mins 1.34 g/60
C.Brown: 411 mins 2.19 g/60

In 2023:
Bunting: 735mins 1.55 g/60
Marner: 539 mins 1.33 g/60
Nylander: 504 mins 1.54 g/60

2024
Marner: 720 mins 1.58 g/60
Knies 563 mins 1.6 g/60
Bertuzzi: 322 mins 2.42 g/60

 

[tuckerintensity]

206 mins with Domi

720 mins with Marner

But as I said, the most gf/60 Matthews has hit with Marner was 1.94. Which is only marginally better than what Matthews hit at 22 years old (1.8) with 40 year old Marleau as his winger.

In his Rookie season, Matthews has 1.72 g/60 in nearly 1000 mins with Hyman

..in hindisight Marner hasnt helped him score more at all. An argument can be made that Marner actually hinders Matthews goal scoring. Especially looking at the last 2 seasons.

He played roughly 60% of his time last year with Mitch, 13% with Max, and 1% with both... and scored 69 damn goals. But ya, Maxy boy is the wonder who gets him all his chances.

Look, I'm here for the we should split those two up more (AM/MM), if not the majority of their ES time, just don't be completely ridiculous about the whole thing out of emotion. AM/MD isn't the long term solution either, that run and gun that produces more chances for also creates far more chances against and that bullkaka doesn't help us at all when the games matter. Like I said, just don't be completely ridiculous about the whole thing out of emotion.

 

[Antropovsky]

He played roughly 60% of his time last year with Mitch, 13% with Max, and 1% with both... and scored 69 damn goals. But ya, Maxy boy is the wonder who gets him all his chances.

Look, I'm here for the we should split those two up more (AM/MM), if not the majority of their ES time, just don't be completely ridiculous about the whole thing out of emotion. AM/MD isn't the long term solution either, that run and gun that produces more chances for also creates far more chances against and that bullkaka doesn't help us at all when the games matter. Like I said, just don't be completely ridiculous about the whole thing out of emotion.

The point isnt Max. Its Matthews scoring at a 1.8 G/60 rate at 22 with 40 year old Marleau or with Hyman. Marner, for being this Elite playmaker isnt moving the needle for Matthews g/60. In fact it has been lower than Matthews average with Marner the past couple years. It peaked at 1.9 together, which is not much better than when 22 year old Matthews was with 40 year old Marleau.

Probably because Marner was known to actually decrease shot advantages for his line when he was on them, however, he did increase scoring. Meaning lines with him on them would shoot less with him but tend to score more (though sample size was small). Tavares the first year was good, but that fizzled quickly by year 2. Matthews and him were good (Matthews g/60 only marginally invreasing initially) but that fizzled and now Matthews g/60 with Matthews has been low or average with Marner the past 2 years.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

TRADE MARNER

Just getting in my daily rep, like this savage.

 

[666]

Matthews line w/Domi:
Gf/60: 6:67
Ga/60: 3.77
Difference: +2.90

Matthews line w/Marner:
Gf/60: 3.58
Ga/60: 2.33
Difference: +1.25

If you had a choice of line A, + an additional 8 million to spend vs line B without the extra money, which would you take?

If Marner is an 11 million dollar playmaker/defensive player, shouldnt we see a significant improvement of Matthews with Marner vs others? Especially with 3 Million journeyman Domi?

You wont find a goal scorer with Thornton who didnt improve by quite a bit with Thornton vs without. Also Thornton turned lesser players into much more productive goal scorers. Marner isnt and there is no real track record of him ever doing it.

While as ive shown, Matthews is generally scoring the same with or more with numerous players other than Marner, including Kapanen and 40 year old Marleau.

Stop posting your nonsense statistics. If you don't understand stats don't use them. Your sample size is too small which you don't even provide. Stop posting nonsense to boost your nonsense agenda.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Very interesting... what is the sample size for games with Matthews-Domi and Matthews-Marner?

Matthews and Domi played 14 games together at the end of the year, so a tiny sample size. Instead of attempting to use it to argue the offensive superiority of a middle-six forward over a superstar, most people would see a 5v5 GF/60 of 6.67 and immediately have alarm bells ringing, and investigate further. They would know that that is not sustainable. They would see a wildly unsustainable 5v5 OISH%, and a wildly unsustainable GF-xGF differential fueling that. They might notice that the line was sheltered more when Domi was there, and that the line let in a let of goals. They would probably notice that during this time, the line was scoring a lot, but Matthews was doubling the production of everybody else on the line; which kind of hurts claims that Domi was the one causing this. Then we might look a bit deeper and notice that 70% of the goals that combination got together during that time, came in a handful of games against New Jersey and Washington in the last few weeks of the season.

That's not to say that there wasn't some offensive chemistry with Matthews and Domi, and there may even be good arguments for using them together at times to maximize Domi's strengths and shelter his weaknesses, but somebody using line GF numbers in a tiny sample to argue that he's on the level of Marner, or to use it to put down one of the most effective player combinations in the league over the last decade, is just ridiculous.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Stop posting your nonsense statistics. If you don't understand stats don't use them. Your sample size is too small which you don't even provide. Stop posting nonsense to boost your nonsense agenda.

Can you post statistics ? To back up your posts ? And don't tell other people what to do.
K ?

 

[666]

Can you post statistics ? To back up your posts ? And don't tell other people what to do.
K ?

I have dealt with this guy many times.

He is promoting misinformation by providing stats that don't have enough samples.
A 5v5 GF/60 of 6:67 is impossible over an entire season. He's using only 200 minute TOI. Even McDavid and Draisaitl together only have GF/60 of 4.25 with 1200 minutes. If he doesn't know that then he shouldn't be posting.

How's that for stats? If you don't understand stats then don't listen to people who spew them with no context.

 

[francis246]

I have dealt with this guy many times.

He is promoting misinformation by providing stats that don't have enough samples.
A 5v5 GF/60 of 6:67 is impossible over an entire season. He's using at 200 minute TOI. Even McDavid and Draisaitl together only have GF/60 of 4.25 with 1200 minutes. If he doesn't know that then he shouldn't be posting.

How's that for stats? If you don't understand stats then don't listen to people who spew them with no context.

I also don’t know how you can ignore the MD/AM GA/60. Way too high in a small sample size. That should tell you right away that they would leak goals the entire season. Because they would chase more offensive opportunities. Probably not something you want for an extended period of time but should be something Berube has in his back pocket if the offense dries up or we need to change it up.

 

[666]

I also don’t know how you can ignore the MD/AM GA/60. Way too high in a small sample size. That should tell you right away that they would leak goals the entire season. Because they would chase more offensive opportunities. Probably not something you want for an extended period of time but should be something Berube has in his back pocket if the offense dries up or we need to change it up.

I know, these guys figure out how to find w/wo stats and just looks for crap that satisfies their agenda without understanding anything about what they are spewing. Unfortunately there are people around here who believe them.

 

[Antropovsky]

I have dealt with this guy many times.

He is promoting misinformation by providing stats that don't have enough samples.
A 5v5 GF/60 of 6:67 is impossible over an entire season. He's using only 200 minute TOI. Even McDavid and Draisaitl together only have GF/60 of 4.25 with 1200 minutes. If he doesn't know that then he shouldn't be posting.

How's that for stats? If you don't understand stats then don't listen to people who spew them with no context.

Nice strawman fallacy....taking one point from my post and attacking it and ignoring all the rest.

As I also posted Matthews has only a 1.55 and 1.35 g/60 with Marner over the last two full seasons. Which is very low for Matthews historically with all linemates (which I showed I provided examples). Shouldnt we expect Matthews to score more with Marner, rather than less?

Also...weve heard for years from Marner fans that Marner boosted Kadris stats. Guess what that "sample size" is...a whole 420 mins.

Cant wait for you to flex your expert data analysis in your response. Try to avoid the strawman fallacy next time.