Marner

[Antropovsky]

It makes it very difficult for him. So far he’s a 95 point guy but he’s getting paid like he’s Kucherov putting up 130 points.

With a better linemate than kucherov. Imagine Matthews and Kucherov?

 

[666]

You had better check on how you are using the term.

By the way, I am not ignoring facts - at most I am looking at them from a different viewpoint, and in fact I am looking at them in a greater context, and thereby arriving at a different conclusion. I'm not saying mpy conclusions are any better or worse than yours, just different.

But there is no cognitive dissonance.

And there it is. Right there.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think this is all fair. 13-14% is roughly what I'd expect Marner to get from any team.

The issue is does this team want to base it's cap structure with 2 RWs making similar amounts of that level of capspace moving forward.

A deep playoff run makes 'yes' and easier option than 'no'. An early exit indicates that deeper changes to the team are further required

That's one issue. Another issue (and I would say this is an even bigger issue), is that playoff Marner <<< regular season Marner and considering how poorly he played in our last two playoff series, betting on him turning things around seems like a longshot.

Brad Treliving admitted it’s about talent. He has said in multiple interviews when asked about this topic. “It’s extremely hard to acquire talent” that tells us everything we need to know. How is it a strawman argument? It’s the truth. Name me a Stanley cup team that has let a star player go to UFA and then replace him with multiple free agents and won a cup. Its never happened. Any team that has changed their core has done it through trade. That option is not available for the maple leafs anymore. They are not going to build a winner through UFA if they let Marner go. They are going to overpay some very average players and the leafs management knows it. That’s why it’s not even a real consideration.

I do believe management was open to changing up the core if one of the guys would waive. It’s the only way to get as close to value back as possible for these guys. As it makes sense to do so via trade. But thinking you’re going to do that via free agency is a losing bet.

It's hard to acquire talent, but winning is even harder so no it's not about talent, it's about winning. If you were to ask Berube what he would like to accomplish in Toronto, do he think he's going say acquire talent? I think you and I both know that what he would say, it's that he wants to win the cup. It's always been about winning and it always will be.

You said that:
people acting like replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out and turn us into instant contenders are being a bit delusional

I don't think anyone has said that, and that's what I was referring to as being a strawman argument.

I admire your optimism I really do. I hope Marner turns into a playoff monster and you're proven to be right in the end that he's worth committing to for another mega contract. Based on his career so far though (especially the last few years), he looks like a regular season superstar who's game doesn't translate to playoff hockey. He might have all the talent in the world but when the checking gets tighter, the games get more physical and Marner doesn't have the time and space to "work his magic", he's just hasn't been nearly as effective.

 

[Nineteen67]

With a better linemate than kucherov. Imagine Matthews and Kucherov?

Or what if Matthews became as good as Kucherov?

 

[TMLAM34]

Hope this Matthews - Marner duo comes to an end soon.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Hope this Matthews - Marner duo comes to an end soon.

Domi back on the first line please.

 

[keonsbitterness]

You had better check on how you are using the term.

It is my thoughts and my actions being in conflict. If my thoughts are that Marner is a good but not great player, and my actions are that I post that, there is no conflict, and no "cognitive dissonance".

If I ignore facts, that is ignoring facts, not cognitive dissonance.

If, for example, someone looks at all the evidence and believes that acquiring Tavares was a bad idea, but continues to post that it was a brilliant move, they are experiencing cognitive dissonance.

By the way, I am not ignoring facts - at most I am looking at them from a different viewpoint, and in fact I am looking at them in a greater context, and thereby arriving at a different conclusion. I'm not saying mpy conclusions are any better or worse than yours, just different.

But there is no cognitive dissonance.

I was told there would be no math on this site.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hope this Matthews - Marner duo comes to an end soon.

Amen brother.

Domi back on the first line please.

Yes please.

 

[Mess]

Marner should be put on a system to earn his next contract based entirely on the merits of his performance and statistical contribution.

For every goal he scores +$100k and for every assist earned +$75k

ie. A 100 point regular season based on 30 goals @ $100k & 75 assists @ $75k = $8,625,000 AAV

Kucherov the best RW in the game put up 81 games 44 goals 100 assists 144 points and makes $9.5 mil AAV , So based on the same reward scale as Marner above his actual contract would be $11,900,000. [Adjusted down for Tax Free State].

 

[sunstersun]

He's been an absolute disaster in the last two playoff series the Leafs played.

We easily win the Boston series if he's a PPG player instead of a total scrub.

Turnovers, giveaways, being a softie on the puck.

I'm not interested in 100 point seasons. If he gets 110 great. Lets see it in the postseason.

 

[666]

Marner should be put on a system to earn his next contract based entirely on the merits of his performance and statistical contribution.

For every goal he scores +$100k and for every assist earned +$75k

Again. Goals and points that's all some people see. They simply do not understand the defensive game. Fascinating how one dimensional some of you watch and understand the game.

 

[HellasLEAF]

He's basically at or near his prime. There is perhaps more ceiling as he further matures but how much more it's hard to say.

He's a very smart player. You can see that on the pk. He's so smart and talented it makes up for his lack of speed, shot and physicality.

Anyway you slice it this player at 11 or 13 is a luxury when you probably can't afford it. Unless you can.

 

[BM14]

Hypothetical to the Marner fans:

Marner’s next contract $ goes to Shesty…do you think this team is better?

 

[666]

He's producing better offensively despite being on the second line. Not quite as good defensively, but the real difference is between Matthews and JT, both offensively and defensively.

No, go back and read my posts from yesterday. Marner produces with JT as well as Nylander produces with Matthews. Look it up. You are wrong.

 

[IPS]

Again. Goals and points that's all some people see. They simply do not understand the defensive game. Fascinating how one dimensional some of you watch and understand the game.

Agreed 100%. He's literally the best defensive player in NHL history.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Matthews-Marner chemistry has been dead for a while. It's getting irritating to watch.

Matthews and Nylander should be given at least half a season to find their chemistry from their rookie year (Hyman-Matthews-Nylander was a top 3 5on5 line in the entire league!) and put Marner with JT. Marner and JT have natural chemistry together.

 

[francis246]

Hypothetical to the Marner fans:

Marner’s next contract $ goes to Shesty…do you think this team is better?

No, at least invest that money in a different style of forward or forwards. Goaltending isn’t the issue.

Matthews-Marner chemistry has been dead for a while. It's getting irritating to watch.

Matthews and Nylander should be given at least half a season to find their chemistry from their rookie year (Hyman-Matthews-Nylander was a top 3 5on5 line in the entire league!) and put Marner with JT. Marner and JT have natural chemistry together.

I actually agree with this. I think it’s time to break them up

 

[thewave]

Marner should be put on a system to earn his next contract based entirely on the merits of his performance and statistical contribution.

For every goal he scores +$100k and for every assist earned +$75k

ie. A 100 point regular season based on 30 goals @ $100k & 75 assists @ $75k = $8,625,000 AAV

Kucherov the best RW in the game put up 81 games 44 goals 100 assists 144 points and makes $9.5 mil AAV , So based on the same reward scale as Marner above his actual contract would be $11,900,000.

We talked about this year's ago here. It was the greasy way of pricing players and tbh is the best way. The only thing I would say is that we used to use the same 75k 100k and since then it may be a bit more. 90k and 120k? I think we also factored league scoring going up about 15% or so when equipment changes for tenders was introduced etc


Regardless baseline price per point is the way to go. Advanced stats is a narrative driven by agents to justify undeserved compensation.

If you really want to see them play hard. Put it at 60k 90k for the contract portion and tripple that for playoff points. So in this I am saying the bonus is allowed to exist outside the cap and is yearly for everyone. 270k a PO goal and 180k per playoff assist.


Marner has been as undwhelming as Nylander so far for the money they make. It's early though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner should be put on a system to earn his next contract based entirely on the merits of his performance and statistical contribution.

Players are given contracts based on the merits of their performance and statistical contributions.

For every goal he scores +$100k and for every assist earned +$75k

But certainly not like this. That's just assigning some arbitrary dollar amount to different points, instead of actually looking at their performance and statistical contributions.

For the record, if we used your system and ignored everything a player did outside of points, and looked at only their best season instead of a more representative sample, Nylander's career high at time of signing (40 goals, 47 assists) would only be worth 7.525m. Even last year would only be worth 8.35m.

Do you think Treliving overpaid Nylander by 3-4m?

 

[darrylsittler27]

Tavares is that guy, not Marner.

Not really. If Leafs lose first round again the issue is far deeper than Tavares.

AI don’t think he picked Nylander over Marner. Lmao Nylander was expiring last year. So he resigned him. I don’t think Nylander signing has any influence whatsoever on what happens with Marner. If they want to retain all 3 they have the cap space now to do so. If anything it’s looking more and more like that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

Again, lose first round and play back one more time...really!?

Players are given contracts based on the merits of their performance and statistical contributions.

But certainly not like this. That's just assigning some arbitrary dollar amount to different points, instead of actually looking at their performance and statistical contributions.

For the record, if we used your system and ignored everything a player did outside of points, and looked at only their best season instead of a more representative sample, Nylander's career high at time of signing (40 goals, 47 assists) would only be worth 7.525m. Even last year would only be worth 8.35m.

Do you think Treliving overpaid Nylander by 3-4m?

Tre. We aren't paying Nylander $10m! We are paying him 11.5 mill with NMC.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Not really. If Leafs lose first round again the issue is far deeper than Tavares.

Again, lose first round and play back one more time...really!?


Tre. We aren't paying Nylander $10m! We are paying him 11.5 mill with NMC.

Yes, he overpaid. Tanev 6 years. Kampf overpay, Lily at 3 m! Reaves 3 years. The Leafs as an organization have a bad habit of getting spanked then saying we can't afford what we need. This team needs a good 2/3 C who can put up 60 pts and pk but have no cap.

 

[Gary Nylund]

No, go back and read my posts from yesterday. Marner produces with JT as well as Nylander produces with Matthews. Look it up. You are wrong.

This is a nonsensical comparison to make for a number of reasons, this was already explained to you. Your response was to ramble on about cognitive dissonance.

You use statistics like a drunken man uses lampposts, that's the problem in a nutshell.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Hard agree that I'd like to see Domi - Matthews and Marner - Tavares

 

[Roo]

Marner should be put on a system to earn his next contract based entirely on the merits of his performance and statistical contribution.

For every goal he scores +$100k and for every assist earned +$75k

ie. A 100 point regular season based on 30 goals @ $100k & 75 assists @ $75k = $8,625,000 AAV

Kucherov the best RW in the game put up 81 games 44 goals 100 assists 144 points and makes $9.5 mil AAV , So based on the same reward scale as Marner above his actual contract would be $11,900,000. [Adjusted down for Tax Free State].

Kucherov signed that deal in 2018, after he put up his first 100pt campaign. His prior seasons were much lower. We don't know what Marner will do this year, but he has had more productive seasons under his belt than Kuch at the time. But add the projected cap growth to the $9.5M, and adjust for lower tax and Marner's number starts with a 12. Given this is right in between Nylander and Matthews, it makes sense. Those two are really the only two comparables that matter.

But it would be nice to see them split up the duo, and have Marner prove his worth on another line. Nylander-Tavares doesn't work, but Nylander played with him all last season. If Marner puts up a big year with him, reward him.

 

[thusk]

That's one issue. Another issue (and I would say this is an even bigger issue), is that playoff Marner <<< regular season Marner and considering how poorly he played in our last two playoff series, betting on him turning things around seems like a longshot.


It's hard to acquire talent, but winning is even harder so no it's not about talent, it's about winning. If you were to ask Berube what he would like to accomplish in Toronto, do he think he's going say acquire talent? I think you and I both know that what he would say, it's that he wants to win the cup. It's always been about winning and it always will be.

You said that:
people acting like replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out and turn us into instant contenders are being a bit delusional

I don't think anyone has said that, and that's what I was referring to as being a strawman argument.

I admire your optimism I really do. I hope Marner turns into a playoff monster and you're proven to be right in the end that he's worth committing to for another mega contract. Based on his career so far though (especially the last few years), he looks like a regular season superstar who's game doesn't translate to playoff hockey. He might have all the talent in the world but when the checking gets tighter, the games get more physical and Marner doesn't have the time and space to "work his magic", he's just hasn't been nearly as effective.

You can say the same exact thing about Matthews and Nylander too

Nylander had 1 great series last 2 ( vs Boston) and not be good enough on 2 of last 3

marner had been great on one series( vs tampa) and not good enough on 2 of last 3...

Same with Matthews and know the Matthews line was not good at all vs Boston. They helped to win gm 2 but probably the line who hurt the leafs negatively the most. They cost 6 of 12 goal allowed because of their game and all those penalties they took because they had been outplayed by marchand line most of the time

Simple if Toronto was more succes in playoff EVERYONE need to raise their game.