Player Discussion Marner

[666]

My guess is that you're right - he'll fall somewhere between Nylander and Matthews.

Unfortunately, that'll just be further proof that the organization doesn't consider playoff success to be a priority because if they did, Marner would be behind Nylander in the pecking order.

The last part is wrong as the entire team hasn't produced and blaming Marner is stupid but there's no point in debating it.

 

[Evilhomer]

The average in high tax markets has been 14% cap so that would be generally 12.95.

I wonder if that softens with higher cap. So 12.25 would be about 13.2% so that does seem reasonable.

If he really wants his numbers. 12.16 or 11.93 are the most likely.

I think you say. Rantanen contract. He is slightly better but his taxes are better so call it a wash.

I will be surprised if it starts with an 11.

 

[666]

My guess is that you're right - he'll fall somewhere between Nylander and Matthews.

Unfortunately, that'll just be further proof that the organization doesn't consider playoff success to be a priority because if they did, Marner would be behind Nylander in the pecking order.

On second thought, while we're being cordial, I'll take a shot at it.

When Matthews only has one PP goal in the last 3 playoffs (you don't want to too far back) and Nylander only 3, blaming Marner is dumb.
When Matthews only has only 7 5v5 goals in his last 25 playoff games and Nylander only 4, blaming Marner is even dumber.
When Matthews only has a 10.2 sh% in his last 25 playoff games and Nylander only 11.4%, blaming Marner is now absurd.

That's as simple as I can splain it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

On second thought, while we're being cordial, I'll take a shot at it.

When Matthews only has one PP goal in the last 3 playoffs ( you don't want to too far back) and Nylander only 3, blaming Marner is dumb.
When Matthews only has only 7 5v5 goals in his last 25 playoff games and Nylander only 4, blaming Marner is even dumber.
When Matthews only has a 10.2 sh% in his last 25 playoff games and Nylander only 11.4%, blaming Marner is now absurd.

That's as simple as I can splain it.

Nobody's "blaming Marner" and posting a bunch of Nylander/Matthews stats is a pretty weird way of pumping up Marner. Are you having reading comprehension issues, or do you like going off on nonsensical tangents?

Regular season, Marner>Nylander
Playoffs, Nylander>Marner

I'll put that in your language - "That's as simple as I can splain it."

I will be surprised if it starts with an 11.

It'll almost certainly start with 12. And unless Marner kills it next spring, I can only hope that someone else will be paying him.

 

[666]

Regular season, Marner>Nylander
Playoffs, Nylander>Marner

But this isn't true. You don't watch defensive hockey properly so your opinions are invalid.
People have tried to show you stats but you reject them. Your myth is simply not true if you understand both sides of the rink in hockey.
If Nylander is so great then explain the basic stats that you were just shown. But of course, you will reject them.
The best you can do for the playoffs is:
offensively Nylander sucks >= Marner
defensively Marner >>>> Nylander

 

[Legion34]

I will be surprised if it starts with an 11.

I agree. I do wonder if the symbolic 11.93 to keep it under 12 might try to be an olive branch for the fans. But

He should come in between 12-13 based on history.

Willy took 13% aav

 

[666]

I agree. I do wonder if the symbolic 11.93 to keep it under 12 might try to be an olive branch for the fans. But

He should come in between 12-13 based on history.

Willy took 13% aav

Was that 13% of the year he signed or the first year of the contract because it's wrong to use the signing year.

 

[darrylsittler27]

The last part is wrong as the entire team hasn't produced and blaming Marner is stupid but there's no point in debating it.

It isn't about blaming Marner. In musical chairs there is always one odd man out. You can't trade Mathews. Nylander eat his lunch. He isn't worth what he wants to us . If we lose first round again we don't even need him. The Leafs already committed.

 

[666]

It isn't about blaming Marner. In musical chairs there is always one odd man out. You can't trade Mathews. Nylander eat his lunch. He isn't worth what he wants to us . If we lose first round again we don't even need him. The Leafs already committed.

Tavares is that guy, not Marner.

 

[ACC1224]

Good to see this group finally discussing the next contract. It's hard to compare him to Rantanen but we don't really have to. The comparable is Nylander, same team, same position, so it's going to be more than $11.5x8. With Matthews at $13.25x4 we now also have an upper limit. Matthews and Marner tend to bet on themselves and take shorter contracts. I wonder if Marner will do a three or four year deal to get the AAV up and take one more kick at it after that.

Not entirely correct. Marner wanted 8 years, Dubas didn’t. I’d be willing to bet he’ll take 8 this time.

 

[Madap]

Tavares is that guy, not Marner.

It’s both. Except for whatever reason Marner fanboys have blinders on and can’t see that. We’ll fail again this year in the playoffs, blame Tavares and resign Marner, run it back with an overpaid Nylander and Marner, and fail yet again next year. Except now we’ve wasted two years and won’t be able to get rid of Marner or Nylander.

It’s so clear what will happen.

 

[ACC1224]

The last part is wrong as the entire team hasn't produced and blaming Marner is stupid but there's no point in debating it.

Nope the stupidity has always been pretty obvious, best to ignore it.

 

[Legion34]

Was that 13% of the year he signed or the first year of the contract because it's wrong to use the signing year.

Willy signed for 11.5/88 cap
Which is exactly 13% of this years cap.

Basically superstar not generational forwards
(Matthews/drai/kane/malkin/mackinnon ….toews ugh. Remember when he was the second best player in the world supposedly?)

Sign for 15% of the cap

Top players ovy/2nd contract Crosby/mcdavid

Signed for 16-17 percent.

Star players but not superstar forwards (doughty/panarin/pasta/karlson/tavares/price/pre hart matthews etc) signed for 14% approximately… there is a range but it’s around 14%.
Marner should be around there on the lower end.

Before the cap jumps. So Marner is in the 14% range. But who knows now that the cap is going up 1% of 100 million is more than 1% of 57 million so maybe it’s trending to 13%

His range by market should be 12.02-12.93 which is 13-14% aav. His comparable should be rantanen who probably would come in below 12.6 which is mackinon

So I think 11.93 (12.89% of cap low) or 12.16 (13.14% of the cap) is probably fair/realistic plus he really wants that jersey number right?

I bet he is looking at 12.93 which id 13.97% aav


Remember this is not no state tax markets.
They get less

 

[666]

It’s both. Except for whatever reason Marner fanboys have blinders on and can’t see that. We’ll fail again this year in the playoffs, blame Tavares and resign Marner, run it back with an overpaid Nylander and Marner, and fail yet again next year. Except now we’ve wasted two years and won’t be able to get rid of Marner or Nylander.

It’s so clear what will happen.

You gotta have someone on the second line. Guys like Marner don't grow on trees. Maybe if you could trade him for something we need but that's happening. A new coach, freeing up Tavares' cap with an increasing post Covid cap and having Marner and Nylander signed long term should leave us with some optimism for the future.

Nope the stupidity has always been pretty obvious, best to ignore it.

You're right. I will soon.

 

[Gary Nylund]

But this isn't true. You don't watch defensive hockey properly so your opinions are invalid.
People have tried to show you stats but you reject them. Your myth is simply not true if you understand both sides of the rink in hockey.
If Nylander is so great then explain the basic stats that you were just shown. But of course, you will reject them.
The best you can do for the playoffs is:
offensively Nylander sucks >= Marner
defensively Marner >>>> Nylander

 

[ULF_55]

He'll between Nylander and Matthews.

Only unknown is term.

If he commits to Toronto it will be 8 years, otherwise it will be 4.

If 4 years, he may not retire as a Leafs player.

 

[Madap]

You gotta have someone on the second line. Guys like Marner don't grow on trees. Maybe if you could trade him for something we need but that's happening. A new coach, freeing up Tavares' cap with an increasing post Covid cap and having Marner and Nylander signed long term should leave us with some optimism for the future.


You're right. I will soon.

I really hope you’re right man. Every year we go on I get more and more cynical. Just a ton of evidence now that these guys crack under pressure and can’t get it done, under multiple coaches and GMs too.

 

[francis246]

This isnt the real point.

Marner is great at some things. But it doesn't give us a playoff worthy team.

Change.Is.Needed.

And that change IS Marner.

It's inescapable.

I don’t understand this line of thinking, changing Marner isn’t going to magically help this team win a cup. The issues are deeper than one player. It’s the style of play. I’m watching the team this week and every line is driving the net. They are getting goals by doing so. The stars of the team HAVE to buy in.

Nylander and Marner both still refuse to. Matthews to a lesser extent. Nylander gets so upset he takes a penalty. I’m not one that’s going to pretend that Marner isn’t a part of the problem. But I don’t see a difference between the two stylistically. Nylander has been out to the perimeter so has Marner. If the stars don’t change it doesn’t matter if you remove just one. You have two others who would still be here refusing to adapt/change their game

 

[egd27]

Nylander is better at preventing goals on PK/60 for years now.

i know you think that using the /60 stat levels the playing field, but when one player averages over 2 min SH a game and the other is around 20 seconds a game, the chances of the being scored on significantly differs.

 

[notDatsyuk]

A one game sample size is irrelevant to anything, that's the point.
You responded to a post in a thread about long term facts with a one game example.
That's where the cognitive dissonance comes in. The people that don't appreciate Marner, especially compared to Nylander refuse to accept facts and use single games examples to justify their flawed realIty.

You gave an example, I responded with an example - is it my fault yours was abstract and mine was concrete?

Again, as people do who don't have a valid argument, you extract one small item and ignore the gist of the post.

And you have again used "cognitive dissonance" incorrectly.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Good to see this group finally discussing the next contract. It's hard to compare him to Rantanen but we don't really have to. The comparable is Nylander, same team, same position, so it's going to be more than $11.5x8. With Matthews at $13.25x4 we now also have an upper limit. Matthews and Marner tend to bet on themselves and take shorter contracts. I wonder if Marner will do a three or four year deal to get the AAV up and take one more kick at it after that.

With Nylander as the comparable and producing as well in a lesser role, the upper limit for Marner should be about $11M.

I think the best argument for keeping him, even at that amount, would be if Nylander becomes the 2C, so we only have one overpaid RW.

 

[notbias]

100% this. Last season, Matthews got 512 Selke votes and Marner got 23. I'll bet that came as a shock to a few people here but that's what happened.

To be clear, that's not at all a knock on Marner, IMO he's a very good defensive player. But talk of him winning a Selke, that's just people getting carried away for no good reason. JMHO.

The year before last he finished 3rd in voting... thinking he can win a Selke is not far-fetched or people getting carried away.

I think Matthews is better defensively, but I also think he is one of the best defensive forwards and the best complete forward.

Marner could definitely have a year where he is the best defensively in the league, I don't think it is likely, but definitely not far-fetched.

It's mostly a reputation award anyway, so I think it likely gets rotated around 3-4 players like it usually does because voters have no clue what to look for.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I don’t understand this line of thinking, changing Marner isn’t going to magically help this team win a cup. The issues are deeper than one player. It’s the style of play. I’m watching the team this week and every line is driving the net. They are getting goals by doing so. The stars of the team HAVE to buy in.

Nylander and Marner both still refuse to. Matthews to a lesser extent. Nylander gets so upset he takes a penalty. I’m not one that’s going to pretend that Marner isn’t a part of the problem. But I don’t see a difference between the two stylistically. Nylander has been out to the perimeter so has Marner. If the stars don’t change it doesn’t matter if you remove just one. You have two others who would still be here refusing to adapt/change their game

We only have one spot for butter soft winger making too much AAV.
That spot has been filled with Nylander.
TRE PICKED NYLANDER over MARNER.

No team wins anything with 2 wingers making > 10 AAV.

It's just stupid construction.

Signing Marner puts us in cap hell forever. What gong show of a GM would do that to himself.

Marner will block all trades. So he's walking.

 

[francis246]

We only have one spot for butter soft winger making too much AAV.
That spot has been filled with Nylander.
TRE PICKED NYLANDER over MARNER.

No team wins anything with 2 wingers making > 10 AAV.

It's just stupid construction.

I don’t think he picked Nylander over Marner. Lmao Nylander was expiring last year. So he resigned him. I don’t think Nylander signing has any influence whatsoever on what happens with Marner. If they want to retain all 3 they have the cap space now to do so. If anything it’s looking more and more like that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I don’t think Nylander signing has any influence whatsoever on what happens with Marner.

That isn't smart.

You build teams. You don't "Keep your best players wherever possible" when the core doesn't work.

I hold out some hope that the big reason why the Leafs have sucked so bad in the post season is Keefe, Dubas, and borderline goaltending like Sammy.