Player Discussion Marner

[ACC1224]

I don’t think he picked Nylander over Marner. Lmao Nylander was expiring last year. So he resigned him. I don’t think Nylander signing has any influence whatsoever on what happens with Marner. If they want to retain all 3 they have the cap space now to do so. If anything it’s looking more and more like that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

The thought that he picked Nylander over Marner has been right up there with the dumber thoughts of the summer.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don’t think he picked Nylander over Marner. Lmao Nylander was expiring last year. So he resigned him. I don’t think Nylander signing has any influence whatsoever on what happens with Marner. If they want to retain all 3 they have the cap space now to do so. If anything it’s looking more and more like that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

I really hope not. I dislike Marner's game a lot. It's not a fit for playoff hockey, sorry. Huge mistake to sign him to an obscene contract. Why do we need 2 wingers making so much money anyway? I really don't get it. There are teams out there winning cups, winning divisions who don't have that much money tied up in 2 soft wingers.

 

[francis246]

That isn't smart.

You build teams. You don't "Keep your best players wherever possible" when the core doesn't work.

I hold out some hope that the big reason why the Leafs have sucked so bad in the post season is Keefe, Dubas, and borderline goaltending like Sammy.

I agree, I think the original plan of the team would have worked if they just stuck to it. But they got greedy with the Tavares signing and a potential cap rise.

I do think Berube will help us have better results and I really like the roster Brad has built. Defense and goaltending looks stable.

 

[francis246]

I really hope not. I dislike Marner's game a lot. It's not a fit for playoff hockey, sorry. Huge mistake to sign him to an obscene contract. Why do we need 2 wingers making so much money anyway? I really don't get it. There are teams out there winning cups, winning divisions who don't have that much money tied up in 2 soft wingers.

It really has nothing to do with soft wingers and has everything to do with talent. It is so HARD to acquire talent. A GM cannot reasonably bank on replacing a Marner type guy through UFA which is what the fanbase is asking Treliving to do. You are more than likely going to make bigger mistakes throwing money around in UFA. There is obviously a chance you hit, but more times than not GM’s shit the bed on July 1st. That is why the leafs probably won’t take that risk.

The leafs are in a spot where they are not bad enough to draft a legitimate top RW replacement with size and skill and they need to win now. I’m not saying doing nothing or staying status quo is the right decision but people acting like replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out and turn us into instant contenders are being a bit delusional. Your best bet is a trade, but that’s not really on the table right now. (Maybe you convince Marner to sign with limited trade protection). The time was after Montreal or TB series 1.

 

[Suntouchable13]

It really has nothing to do with soft wingers and has everything to do with talent. It is so HARD to acquire talent. A GM cannot reasonably bank on replacing a Marner type guy through UFA which is what the fanbase is asking Treliving to do. You are more than likely going to make bigger mistakes throwing money around in UFA. There is obviously a chance you hit, but more times than not GM’s shit the bed on July 1st. That is why the leafs probably won’t take that risk.

The leafs are in a spot where they are not bad enough to draft a legitimate top RW replacement with size and skill and they need to win now. I’m not saying doing nothing or staying status quo is the right decision but people acting like replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out and turn us into instant contenders are being a bit delusional. Your best bet is a trade, but that’s not really on the table right now. (Maybe you convince Marner to sign with limited trade protection). The time was after Montreal or TB series 1.

Well, if they re-sign Marner before the playoffs and they lose in round 1 or 2 again, then what? You have no flexibility to move on in a different direction. They have tried everything to get this core to get it done over the years. So what, are we gonna be stuck with this non winning core till they age out?

 

[francis246]

Well, if they re-sign Marner before the playoffs and they lose in round 1 or 2 again, then what? You have no flexibility to move on in a different direction. They have tried everything to get this core to get it done over the years. So what, are we gonna be stuck with this non winning core till they age out?

I don’t know what the right answer is. There’s risk all around. Marner could also have a dynamite playoffs and drive up his price. Then we either overpay or lose him for nothing after a good playoffs.

I think it comes down to two things. If they believe in this core and want to sign him. I think you have to sign him now before he goes on a tear. Get him under 12. If you don’t believe in this core, let Marner walk at the end of the year and start fresh. Graduate Cowan and Greb and let’s focus on drafting well. I do think the leafs are gonna be in the market for a 2C like O’Reilly. Him not resigning honestly fcked everything up. Had we resigned him I think we probably are more comfortable to move Marner for a similar aged forward who’s more hard-nosed.

I personally believe in the core. They will make a run. This my favourite iteration of the team since 16/17. Or 18/19.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don’t know what the right answer is. There’s risk all around. Marner could also have a dynamite playoffs and drive up his price. Then we either overpay or lose him for nothing after a good playoffs.

I think it comes down to two things. If they believe in this core and want to sign him. I think you have to sign him now before he goes on a tear. Get him under 12. If you don’t believe in this core, let Marner walk at the end of the year and start fresh. Graduate Cowan and Greb and let’s focus on drafting well. I do think the leafs are gonna be in the market for a 2C like O’Reilly. Him not resigning honestly fcked everything up. Had we resigned him I think we probably are more comfortable to move Marner for a similar aged forward who’s more hard-nosed.

I personally believe in the core. They will make a run. This my favourite iteration of the team since 16/17. Or 18/19.

I guess it’s just a matter of opinion. I don’t believe in them whatsoever. We disagree, and that’s ok. But at the end of the day, we all would be very happy with a long playoff run next spring. That we can agree on.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The year before last he finished 3rd in voting... thinking he can win a Selke is not far-fetched or people getting carried away.

I think Matthews is better defensively, but I also think he is one of the best defensive forwards and the best complete forward.

Marner could definitely have a year where he is the best defensively in the league, I don't think it is likely, but definitely not far-fetched.

It's mostly a reputation award anyway, so I think it likely gets rotated around 3-4 players like it usually does because voters have no clue what to look for.

Agree to disagree. Marner may get some votes here and there but thinking he will ever actually win the Selke is a pipe dream.

The thought that he picked Nylander over Marner has been right up there with the dumber thoughts of the summer.

I've seen you make comments like this countless times - label people's opinions as dumb. FYI, just because an opinion differs from yours, doesn't mean it's dumb. This team has millions of fans, what's the point of constantly insulting people who disagree with you?

It really has nothing to do with soft wingers and has everything to do with talent. It is so HARD to acquire talent. A GM cannot reasonably bank on replacing a Marner type guy through UFA which is what the fanbase is asking Treliving to do. You are more than likely going to make bigger mistakes throwing money around in UFA. There is obviously a chance you hit, but more times than not GM’s shit the bed on July 1st. That is why the leafs probably won’t take that risk.

The leafs are in a spot where they are not bad enough to draft a legitimate top RW replacement with size and skill and they need to win now. I’m not saying doing nothing or staying status quo is the right decision but people acting like replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out and turn us into instant contenders are being a bit delusional. Your best bet is a trade, but that’s not really on the table right now. (Maybe you convince Marner to sign with limited trade protection). The time was after Montreal or TB series 1.

Disagree. It's not about acquiring talent, if about winning. And yes, of course the two are closely related but our playoff history shows that we've won a lot less than you'd expect with our talent level, therefore something is wrong with the mix, how it all fits together.

I don't think anyone is saying that "replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out", this is a pointless strawman argument. I could just easily say that people thinking we're going to win a cup after extending Marner for 12+ million are delusional but I won't say that. What I will say is that whatever we do will be a gamble, and considering how Marner's level of play dips in the playoffs and how his last 2 playoff series were absolutely terrible, I'd rather gamble on going in another direction.

Finally, I would add that even without Marner, we still have a ton of talent. Maybe having just a little bit less talent but having that talent spread more evenly through the lineup will end up with better results. Considering the way the last 8 years have gone, it's hard to see how things could be much worse.

 

[IPS]

I've seen you make comments like this countless times - label people's opinions as dumb. FYI, just because an opinion differs from yours, doesn't mean it's dumb. This team has millions of fans, what's the point of constantly insulting people who disagree with you?

What the f*** is even the point of contributing zero to the discussion except calling other people's opinions dumb.

Seems dumb and childish. Just get off the board if other's opinions trigger you that much.

 

[666]

With Nylander as the comparable and producing as well in a lesser role, the upper limit for Marner should be about $11M.

I think the best argument for keeping him, even at that amount, would be if Nylander becomes the 2C, so we only have one overpaid RW.

Nylander is NOT producing as well. He's a defensive zone disaster. 95 points on a top team and he only breaks even on goals against.

 

[666]

And you have again used "cognitive dissonance" incorrectly.

Cognitive dissonance is described as the mental disturbance people feel when they realize their cognitions and actions are inconsistent or contradictory. This may ultimately result in some change in their cognitions or actions to cause greater alignment between them so as to reduce this dissonance.

Some people irrationally hate Marner.
When he does something brilliant it contradicts their false hate.
They then reject legitimate facts / stats, fabricate mis-informational stats and exaggerate the emphasis on Marners mistakes to reduce the discomfort that they have when they see him playing like a superstar most of the time.
This creates a feedback loop and when you guys circle-jerk about his "flaws" it only makes it worse.

Here are some clear signs that you are probably suffering from CD.
- you don't think that Marner is a superstar
- you try to justify it by comparing him to Nylander but you ignore the very simple facts that Nylander is a much worse overall player
- when you watch the games you get some satisfaction when Marner messes up
- you bring up topics like Marners family and other non on-ice issues to justify your hate
- you repeat the same few mis-leading or plain false talking points that you've learned from your fellow haters to justify your hate

You guys are text book examples.

 

[Menzinger]

Willy signed for 11.5/88 cap
Which is exactly 13% of this years cap.

Basically superstar not generational forwards
(Matthews/drai/kane/malkin/mackinnon ….toews ugh. Remember when he was the second best player in the world supposedly?)

Sign for 15% of the cap

Top players ovy/2nd contract Crosby/mcdavid

Signed for 16-17 percent.

Star players but not superstar forwards (doughty/panarin/pasta/karlson/tavares/price/pre hart matthews etc) signed for 14% approximately… there is a range but it’s around 14%.
Marner should be around there on the lower end.

Before the cap jumps. So Marner is in the 14% range. But who knows now that the cap is going up 1% of 100 million is more than 1% of 57 million so maybe it’s trending to 13%

His range by market should be 12.02-12.93 which is 13-14% aav. His comparable should be rantanen who probably would come in below 12.6 which is mackinon

So I think 11.93 (12.89% of cap low) or 12.16 (13.14% of the cap) is probably fair/realistic plus he really wants that jersey number right?

I bet he is looking at 12.93 which id 13.97% aav


Remember this is not no state tax markets.
They get less

I think this is all fair. 13-14% is roughly what I'd expect Marner to get from any team.

The issue is does this team want to base it's cap structure with 2 RWs making similar amounts of that level of capspace moving forward.

A deep playoff run makes 'yes' and easier option than 'no'. An early exit indicates that deeper changes to the team are further required

 

[Legion34]

I think this is all fair. 13-14% is roughly what I'd expect Marner to get from any team.

The issue is does this team want to base it's cap structure with 2 RWs making similar amounts of that level of capspace moving forward.

A deep playoff run makes 'yes' and easier option than 'no'. An early exit indicates that deeper changes to the team are further required

I fully agree. I personally thought they would have re allocated his money to a centre and defense.

If Willy can’t play C.

I don’t think this is the best allocation

Knies. Matthews. Domi
Robbie. Xxxxxxx. Nylander
Max. Tavares. Mcmann
Lorentz. Kampf. Jarnkrok

Is a much better allocation we have wing depth especially with grebs Cowan in the minors.

But here we are. All signs point to us keeping him.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Knies. Matthews. Domi
Robbie. Xxxxxxx. Nylander
Max. Tavares. Mcmann
Lorentz. Kampf. Jarnkrok

Marner 14AAV x 1. Line Up McDavid and Marner as UFAs.

McDavid probably won't come.

But sometime you gotta dream big.

 

[GoonieFace]

Well, if they re-sign Marner before the playoffs and they lose in round 1 or 2 again, then what? You have no flexibility to move on in a different direction. They have tried everything to get this core to get it done over the years. So what, are we gonna be stuck with this non winning core till they age out?

People fail to realize although Uber talented, Marner does not skate well, doesn’t have a great shot and isn’t physically strong. Without these attributes, it’s hard to excel in tight checking playoff games. And it’s magnified by his contract.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

People fail to realize although Uber talented, Marner does not skate well, doesn’t have a great shot and isn’t physically strong. Without these attributes, it’s hard to excel in tight checking playoff games. And it’s magnified by his contract.

That's why he gets you to the playoffs, but doesn't have the playoff toolset.

Marner may help a team move to their next level, but that team is not the Maple Leafs.

His buddy Dubas overpaid him, likely in part because Babs was mean to him.

Dubas should have walked away at Marner's last contract. Not worth it.

Tre will have no choice. Paul thinks Marner needs 13 AAV and the team can't afford that once you factor in the costs associated with filling major gaps.

 

[francis246]

Agree to disagree. Marner may get some votes here and there but thinking he will ever actually win the Selke is a pipe dream.


I've seen you make comments like this countless times - label people's opinions as dumb. FYI, just because an opinion differs from yours, doesn't mean it's dumb. This team has millions of fans, what's the point of constantly insulting people who disagree with you?


Disagree. It's not about acquiring talent, if about winning. And yes, of course the two are closely related but our playoff history shows that we've won a lot less than you'd expect with our talent level, therefore something is wrong with the mix, how it all fits together.

I don't think anyone is saying that "replacing Marner’s production with workhorses from UFA is going to immediately pan out", this is a pointless strawman argument. I could just easily say that people thinking we're going to win a cup after extending Marner for 12+ million are delusional but I won't say that. What I will say is that whatever we do will be a gamble, and considering how Marner's level of play dips in the playoffs and how his last 2 playoff series were absolutely terrible, I'd rather gamble on going in another direction.

Finally, I would add that even without Marner, we still have a ton of talent. Maybe having just a little bit less talent but having that talent spread more evenly through the lineup will end up with better results. Considering the way the last 8 years have gone, it's hard to see how things could be much worse.

Brad Treliving admitted it’s about talent. He has said in multiple interviews when asked about this topic. “It’s extremely hard to acquire talent” that tells us everything we need to know. How is it a strawman argument? It’s the truth. Name me a Stanley cup team that has let a star player go to UFA and then replace him with multiple free agents and won a cup. Its never happened. Any team that has changed their core has done it through trade. That option is not available for the maple leafs anymore. They are not going to build a winner through UFA if they let Marner go. They are going to overpay some very average players and the leafs management knows it. That’s why it’s not even a real consideration.

I do believe management was open to changing up the core if one of the guys would waive. It’s the only way to get as close to value back as possible for these guys. As it makes sense to do so via trade. But thinking you’re going to do that via free agency is a losing bet.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Brad Treliving admitted it’s about (playoff) talent.

playoff talent.

Marner ain't it.

why is this so hard for people ?

We are moving away from East West people like Marner.
That's the new direction.

Only a loser GM would sign Big AAV for the wrong guy.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander is NOT producing as well. He's a defensive zone disaster. 95 points on a top team and he only breaks even on goals against.

He's producing better offensively despite being on the second line. Not quite as good defensively, but the real difference is between Matthews and JT, both offensively and defensively.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner 14AAV x 1. Line Up McDavid and Marner as UFAs.

McDavid probably won't come.

But sometime you gotta dream big.

Mcdavid is obsessed with Toronto. I think he might come here.

 

[notDatsyuk]

We only have one spot for butter soft winger making too much AAV.
That spot has been filled with Nylander.
TRE PICKED NYLANDER over MARNER.

No team wins anything with 2 wingers making > 10 AAV.

It's just stupid construction.

Signing Marner puts us in cap hell forever. What gong show of a GM would do that to himself.

Marner will block all trades. So he's walking.

As I said earlier (which got ignored by the poster I was responding to) the best argument for keeping Marner, even at $10M, would be for Nylander to switch to centre.

 

[francis246]

playoff talent.

Marner ain't it.

why is this so hard for people ?

We are moving away from East West people like Marner.
That's the new direction.

Only a loser GM would sign Big AAV for the wrong guy.

I don’t really care what they do just put together a winning team.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Cognitive dissonance is described as the mental disturbance people feel when they realize their cognitions and actions are inconsistent or contradictory. This may ultimately result in some change in their cognitions or actions to cause greater alignment between them so as to reduce this dissonance.

Some people irrationally hate Marner.
When he does something brilliant it contradicts their false hate.
They then reject legitimate facts / stats, fabricate mis-informational stats and exaggerate the emphasis on Marners mistakes to reduce the discomfort that they have when they see him playing like a superstar most of the time.
This creates a feedback loop and when you guys circle-jerk about his "flaws" it only makes it worse.

Here are some clear signs that you are probably suffering from CD.
- you don't think that Marner is a superstar
- you try to justify it by comparing him to Nylander but you ignore the very simple facts that Nylander is a much worse overall player
- when you watch the games you get some satisfaction when Marner messes up
- you bring up topics like Marners family and other non on-ice issues to justify your hate
- you repeat the same few mis-leading or plain false talking points that you've learned from your fellow haters to justify your hate

You guys are text book examples.

You had better check on how you are using the term.

It is my thoughts and my actions being in conflict. If my thoughts are that Marner is a good but not great player, and my actions are that I post that, there is no conflict, and no "cognitive dissonance".

If I ignore facts, that is ignoring facts, not cognitive dissonance.

If, for example, someone looks at all the evidence and believes that acquiring Tavares was a bad idea, but continues to post that it was a brilliant move, they are experiencing cognitive dissonance.

By the way, I am not ignoring facts - at most I am looking at them from a different viewpoint, and in fact I am looking at them in a greater context, and thereby arriving at a different conclusion. I'm not saying mpy conclusions are any better or worse than yours, just different.

But there is no cognitive dissonance.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I'm familiar with ACC's routine and if you're aware that he's one of Marner's biggest fanboys posting here, then my response should make complete sense. It's sweet of you to stick up for him though.

The longer Marner stays here this season, the more frequent and fervent the Marner Publicity Group's™ postings will get.

You thought it was frantic before? You ain't seen nothin' yet. All of it will create a toxic atmosphere for the team and drag them down.

TRADE MARNER NOW. He's NOT going to buy in.

 

[Nineteen67]

People fail to realize although Uber talented, Marner does not skate well, doesn’t have a great shot and isn’t physically strong. Without these attributes, it’s hard to excel in tight checking playoff games. And it’s magnified by his contract.

It makes it very difficult for him. So far he’s a 95 point guy but he’s getting paid like he’s Kucherov putting up 130 points.