Value of: Marner

[AleksandarN]

Nurse plus a first

 

[John Mandalorian]

I'm predicting: Marner for Askarov + what

I can't figure out the 'what' that would balance some value and some cap. But it's not as bonkers as it seems. Askarov wants to move, Leafs fans want Marner gone, and ROR has pushed management in NSH to look at Marner.

Something should be possible.

Askarov + cap space?

 

[T_Cage]

Nurse plus a first

This thread is 'value of Marner', not 'value of Future Considerations'

 

[AvStock]

A decade ago. & Then signed 2 players to a couple of monster contracts. How many series wins & playoff game wins since? Any guesses?

You guys are still exempt from criticism

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

I’ll reverse it. Likely more than the conditional third and middling AHLer you think.

Lay off the Brew!

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Didn’t you guys recently win 2 cups lol…

They didn't pay anyone that much, and that was a while back.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

I think his repeated playoff performances make it challenging for a team to commit 11+M to him, and he doesn't seem like the guy that's going to take a discount to play somewhere.

He's incredibly talented and makes a team better, but I'd have a hard time swallowing that contract even if he was signed as a free agent, which obviously reduces my willingness to pay up significant assets to acquire him in the first place.

I don't really see a trade from Toronto playing out. Management either loves him and extends him to something rich or he walks and looks for it elsewhere as a FA.

 

[saintunspecified]

I think his repeated playoff performances make it challenging for a team to commit 11+M to him, and he doesn't seem like the guy that's going to take a discount to play somewhere.

He's incredibly talented and makes a team better, but I'd have a hard time swallowing that contract even if he was signed as a free agent, which obviously reduces my willingness to pay up significant assets to acquire him in the first place.

I don't really see a trade from Toronto playing out. Management either loves him and extends him to something rich or he walks and looks for it elsewhere as a FA.

Regardless of willingness, he's in a position to make the call about what he will take.

If he's going to take a trade, it'd have to be an NBA style sign-and-trade. So, (i) the destination will have been agreed upon, (ii) the deal will be based on cap considerations for both organizations involved, and (iii) the return is mostly based upon the value of those cap considerations + (iv) there being multiple teams to whom Marner is willing to do a sign and trade.

I think it's pretty unlikely that TOR is going to get a player back that's going to be as positively influential as Marner. Assuming that TOR is well in playoffs position throughout the season, I think the incentive to make a run will be a bigger motivator than recouping something for Marner.

NYI have always been one of the rumored landing spots for Marner, because of Lou and Marner's friendships with Islanders players. And, of course, a Dobson for Marner sign & trade is exactly the sort of move that would suit Toronto's needs 100%. The problem is such a deal would replicate TOR's roster construction problems in New York. It's not going to happen, and If it was going to happen, it would have happened already. But this illustrates how difficult a sign and trade scenario is. Unlike the NBA, the NHL's hard cap is simpler in a way that does not incentivize the arcane deals that occur in the NBA.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

This thread is 'value of Marner', not 'value of Future Considerations'

Future considerations is overpayment for Nurse + a 1st

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

Could LA be a trading partner? PLD and an RD type of basis?

PLD converted to winger/C in a pinch and can be Tavares replacement long term. PLD also there to try and get salaries to match as close as possible. Toronto also secures a better RD option on a better contract than what might be available on the market to them? Or acquires an RD from LA while still chasing a premiere top 4 UFA option?

LA upgrades their RW, has excess RW they could consider flipping to contribute towards a goalie? Opens space for Byfield to play C?

Maybe this trade doesn't work, but I can't imagine a Marner trade without a huge 8AAV + contract going the other way.

Sure. That would work. All LA has to do is trade with WSH for PLD and then they can trade him to TO.

 

[FerrisRox]

With a 20 man roster, Nashville is presently less than one league minimum salary from the cap ceiling. There would have to be heroic cap solutions to try to add a 10.9 million dollar body to that roster.

Nevermind that it's financially impossible, I can't imagine Barry Trotz, of all people, would want Mitch Marner on his team.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Claude Giroux returned a first, a third and Owen Tippet. So start there if it’s a rental. Marner has a NMC but Leafs aren’t desperate to trade him for a lowball offer like the Hawks were with Kane. We can use him as an own rental.

For an extended Marner, I’d look at the Eichel deal as a comparison.

Hawks weren't desperate to trade Kane. They were doing a franchise cornerstone a solid by trading him to a potential contender so he could take another run at a Cup.

Marner's a tough player to value IMO. Certainly an elite winger that on a reasonable contract would have significant value. The issue is that he hasn't been on a reasonable contract for a winger in a long time, and he's likely to want raise. The second part that makes it tough to value is his NMC. If MM limits the teams he's willing to waive for, that reduces the chances he gets traded for value. Lastly - he's a winger with an "uneven" play-off history, and doesn't play a heavy game. A contending team is unlikely to have the cap space for MM, and might not see him as a solution to their problems to push the team over the top. Additionally, MM has total control of the process with his NMC and preliminary indication are that he doesn't want to leave.

On the other hand - he does play a strong 2-way game, in the aggregate his play-off production isn't bad, and his 2024/25 salary has already essentailly been paid via signing bonus.

 

[mydnyte]

Nevermind that it's financially impossible, I can't imagine Barry Trotz, of all people, would want Mitch Marner on his team.

Trotz would love Marner, a guy who plays a 200 foot game and still puts up about 100 points every year, those type of players are very rare.
Trotz is a take care of the D-zone first guy and always has been. He loves his defensively responsible forwards.

 

[Djp]

I think his value depends on whether he comes with an extension or not

But most likely your looking at a 1st, Roster Player, Prospect kind of deal

I think the return would be simmiliar to what the Horvat return was 2 years ago maybe a little more

I just don't see a lot of teams having the room to take him with out the Leafs taking back Salary, which defeats the purpose of trading him

I think with an extension you could get a top 6 forward, Top 4 dman and a 1st

I always thought the Kraken would be the perfect trade Partner for them

something like

Wright, Borgen and a 1st for an extended Marner I think that would be his top value

Horvat is a center. He came at 50%
Marner returns less

 

[mydnyte]

Hawks weren't desperate to trade Kane. They were doing a franchise cornerstone a solid by trading him to a potential contender so he could take another run at a Cup.

Marner's a tough player to value IMO. Certainly an elite winger that on a reasonable contract would have significant value. The issue is that he hasn't been on a reasonable contract for a winger in a long time, and he's likely to want raise. The second part that makes it tough to value is his NMC. If MM limits the teams he's willing to waive for, that reduces the chances he gets traded for value. Lastly - he's a winger with an "uneven" play-off history, and doesn't play a heavy game. A contending team is unlikely to have the cap space for MM, and might not see him as a solution to their problems to push the team over the top. Additionally, MM has total control of the process with his NMC and preliminary indication are that he doesn't want to leave.

On the other hand - he does play a strong 2-way game, in the aggregate his play-off production isn't bad, and his 2024/25 salary has already essentailly been paid via signing bonus.

Hawks needed a full rebuild, and Kane was too good a player to cause them to fail bad enough to get Bedard. Trading Kane was about getting value AND, getting worse in the short term.
Leafs are not comparable to Chicago when they dealt Kane, so, dont understand the correlation.

 

[mydnyte]

Horvat is a center. He came at 50%
Marner returns less

LOL... before Horvat was dealt, his career high was 61 points, the same as Marner's rookie season, and Marner is a better player at every aspect of the game ...but, of course, playing C compensates for all that and then some too
you would need to add a 1st and a good prospect to Horvat to get Marner.

 

[sensfan4lifee]

Horvat is a center. He came at 50%
Marner returns less

Marner with an extension in place would cost much more than Horvat

Its just two different levels of player.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Marner with an extension in place would cost much more than Horvat

Its just two different levels of player.

That depends for how much and how long that extension is.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Hawks needed a full rebuild, and Kane was too good a player to cause them to fail bad enough to get Bedard. Trading Kane was about getting value AND, getting worse in the short term.
Leafs are not comparable to Chicago when they dealt Kane, so, dont understand the correlation.

100% agreed the 2022/23 Hawks were in a very different position to the 2024/25 Maple Leafs. With his hip, the Hawks could have shut Kane down if they wanted to "get worse in the short term".

Because the Hawks were rebuilding - they weren't going to resign Kane. They obviously would have liked to have gotten more for PK, but the story I heard is that when the team approached PK, he said he'd like to go the Rangers, so the Rangers knew they had the leverage in the negotiations which limited the return.

Maple Leafs are obviously in a different position. They're contending this year, and if they don't want to commit to the "big 3" long term, they'd be better off making a run and then letting MM walk and re-allocate the cap $'s next off-season rather than bend-over and take a bad deal in a trade. If they do decide to sign MM long term, they're obviously comfortable paying the big 3 the $37M'ish and filling the other holes cheaply. Either way - there is likely to be a lot of angst and second guessing amongst the fan-base.

 

[dgibb10]

LOL... before Horvat was dealt, his career high was 61 points, the same as Marner's rookie season, and Marner is a better player at every aspect of the game ...but, of course, playing C compensates for all that and then some too
you would need to add a 1st and a good prospect to Horvat to get Marner.

The 8 million dollar difference in salary makes up for it.

Is mitch marner 8 million dollars better than Horvat?

 

[AslanRH]

Sure. That would work. All LA has to do is trade with WSH for PLD and then they can trade him to TO.

when one wants to be witty but ignores dates on posts

 

[mydnyte]

The 8 million dollar difference in salary makes up for it.

Is mitch marner 8 million dollars better than Horvat?

Horvat is at 8.5 and Marner 10.9 which is a teeny bit less than 8 mil difference, and Horvat wasnt getting paid 2.9mil when he was traded either.
Marner is a much better player than Horvat

 

[dgibb10]

Horvat is at 8.5 and Marner 10.9 which is a teeny bit less than 8 mil difference, and Horvat wasnt getting paid 2.9mil when he was traded either.
Marner is a much better player than Horvat

Horvat was acquired with 1 year 5.5 mill on his deal and came with retention to I believe around 4 mill. 7 mill difference my mistake.

 

[Ulysses31]

jus hoping leafs extend marner 13x8

 

[crowi]

Leafs have been overpaying every "CORE" player since Dubas f***ed it up.

No other team will give Marner even $10M/Year. His comparables make way less as is and he is probably looking for a raise from his $10.9M.

Leafs are the only team that "WE CAN AND WE WILL" pay him anything starting with 10. Then again, he has an ego, probably thinks he deserves more than the now overpaid Nylander.

Good luck to Leafs.