Value of: Marner to NSH at the draft

[beardawg]

Apples and potatoes. If Marner was a free agent and electing to sign a contract with us it's not a discussion. But trading our youth/draft assets for a player at that stage of their career that can walk in 2 years (and probably will from a relatively uncompetitive team) would be pretty poor asset management. Doesn't mean we have to jettison all veteran players.

He has 2 years and can be flipped at the 2025 deadline for probably at least what is paid for him now if it didnt work out. If we're not trying to win with Josi/Forsberg/Saros then we're going to continue to be a middle of the pack team that is never bad enough to get a top 5 pick, so the only other way to get proven talent is to trade for it. Prospect pool would still be one of the best in the league

 

[beardawg]

When you're talking about the quantity and value of assets being asked for in a Marner trade, that's not the sort of risk that is prudent to take unless you're already in contender mode and just need that one extra guy. The Preds are not and Marner isn't that guy.

It appears I'm in the minority of Preds fans, but I think it's absurd to think a 90 point Selke nominee in the prime of his career wouldn't make this roster an instant contender. Like I said above, if it didn't work out, he could be flipped at the 2025 deadline - no harm, no foul. If the goal is that we're not gonna be ready to contend in the next 2 or 3 years then it doesn't make sense to keep Josi or Saros around any longer to keep just being barely good enough. They finished with the same record as the Panthers this year. They can win

 

[herzausstein]

It appears I'm in the minority of Preds fans, but I think it's absurd to think a 90 point Selke nominee in the prime of his career wouldn't make this roster an instant contender. Like I said above, if it didn't work out, he could be flipped at the 2025 deadline - no harm, no foul. If the goal is that we're not gonna be ready to contend in the next 2 or 3 years then it doesn't make sense to keep Josi or Saros around any longer to keep just being barely good enough. They finished with the same record as the Panthers this year. They can win

I personally look at our center group and ask "is this what a competitor looks like? Are Glass, Novak, Parssinen, Joey, and Sissons good enough? Maybe if Parssinen and Glass take large strides and Novak doesnt regress too much or if Joey comes back better from injury than before he left or if Duchene figures out how to be a center but even then our top center would be 60-70 points which puts us solidly in the bottom quarter of the nhl.

None of that says double down on the team as currently constructed. Then you ruin your teams cap sctructure and set a rebuild back by years.... by the time you trade marner to recoup assets lost the assets lost will be NHL contributors or close to vs the picks prospects you get in a marner trade that will take a couple more years to develop. So thats atleast 2 years of rebuild lost on a gamble i personally see having pretty bad odds of paying off

 

[Guffman]

Lets start with the fact that he would be the best player on that team

OK, now continue your train of thought.

Here, let me help you out. After adding Marner, Nashville is now down to $4.5M cap space. How are you filling out the rest of the team? I am particularly interested if Cody Glass will now be the centre for Marner to really get good performance from Marner.

I hope the “Lets start with the fact…” had a bit more to it than that… right?

 

[Armourboy]

It appears I'm in the minority of Preds fans, but I think it's absurd to think a 90 point Selke nominee in the prime of his career wouldn't make this roster an instant contender. Like I said above, if it didn't work out, he could be flipped at the 2025 deadline - no harm, no foul. If the goal is that we're not gonna be ready to contend in the next 2 or 3 years then it doesn't make sense to keep Josi or Saros around any longer to keep just being barely good enough. They finished with the same record as the Panthers this year. They can win

As has been said a million times, it's not up to us if we keep Josi or not, he has all the control so if he wants to stay in Nashville there isn't a thing we can do. We can't even waive him.

Saros isn't going anywhere this year unless someone just makes an offer so over the top Trotz/Poile have no choice but to take the deal. That's not going to happen, so Saros will continue to be here if for no other reason as protection both for and from Askarov. Saros is here to be his mentor, just like Pekka was for Saros or we resign him if Askarov busts but either way he isn't going anywhere. I've been following the Preds from the start, Barry Trotz is going to keep a good goalie around if he has that option.

And no Marner does not make us an instant contender. You have an injured Forsberg, Josi, Joey, and Duchene coming back and no clue how good or bad any of them will be. They weren't exactly tearing things up before the injuries to start with. We have no clue what the kids are going to do outside of that either. Even with Marner we are a bubble team at best, cause he ain't putting up 90 points here.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It appears I'm in the minority of Preds fans, but I think it's absurd to think a 90 point Selke nominee in the prime of his career wouldn't make this roster an instant contender. Like I said above, if it didn't work out, he could be flipped at the 2025 deadline - no harm, no foul. If the goal is that we're not gonna be ready to contend in the next 2 or 3 years then it doesn't make sense to keep Josi or Saros around any longer to keep just being barely good enough. They finished with the same record as the Panthers this year. They can win

Hockey is a team game. Marner wouldn't have all the Leafs firepower around him if he was in Nashville, and he certainly would never have garnered even a single Selke vote. He'd be a very nice 70-80 point winger, sort of like a healthier Forsberg, but paid $11M. For only 2 years. That doesn't make a team an "instant contender". A hockey team needs a lot of things, and needs them all clicking together and functioning well to be a contender. We're not going to have that with John Hynes as head coach no matter who you add. And who knows what the team will look like under a different head coach.

The team was actually better late in the season when all of Forsberg, Duchene, Josi, and Johansen were injured and replaced by young players. That tells you the value of highly-paid "stars". Adding Marner doesn't change a thing until everything else is fixed first. That's why every other Preds fan here is saying "no thanks" to Marner.

 

[Viqsi]

It appears I'm in the minority of Preds fans, but I think it's absurd to think a 90 point Selke nominee in the prime of his career wouldn't make this roster an instant contender. Like I said above, if it didn't work out, he could be flipped at the 2025 deadline - no harm, no foul. If the goal is that we're not gonna be ready to contend in the next 2 or 3 years then it doesn't make sense to keep Josi or Saros around any longer to keep just being barely good enough. They finished with the same record as the Panthers this year. They can win

I'm not going to claim something absurd like Marner actually being bad defensively or something because that's blatantly untrue. But I will say that I think most of the credit for his Selkie nomination - i.e. that which suggests he might actually be exceptional at it - comes from his wearing blue and white. Good, not great.

In any case, our center depth is very much in question. I like the kids, but I don't think we can yet lean on them to the extent that would be necessary to take that gamble. Let them grow more first.

 

[PredsV82]

It appears I'm in the minority of Preds fans, but I think it's absurd to think a 90 point Selke nominee in the prime of his career wouldn't make this roster an instant contender. Like I said above, if it didn't work out, he could be flipped at the 2025 deadline - no harm, no foul. If the goal is that we're not gonna be ready to contend in the next 2 or 3 years then it doesn't make sense to keep Josi or Saros around any longer to keep just being barely good enough. They finished with the same record as the Panthers this year. They can win

You are very much in the minority and "flipping him at the deadline in 2025" is absolutely not ""no harm no foul" if it cost us substantial assets to get him. It sets any rebuild/retool back by two years and there is no way we get as much for him as a rental as we would have to pay to get him now.

Plus what happens if he makes us just good enough to eke into the playoffs and then he leaves after we lose in round 1??

It's a colossally unwise idea.

 

[beardawg]

As has been said a million times, it's not up to us if we keep Josi or not, he has all the control so if he wants to stay in Nashville there isn't a thing we can do. We can't even waive him.

Saros isn't going anywhere this year unless someone just makes an offer so over the top Trotz/Poile have no choice but to take the deal. That's not going to happen, so Saros will continue to be here if for no other reason as protection both for and from Askarov. Saros is here to be his mentor, just like Pekka was for Saros or we resign him if Askarov busts but either way he isn't going anywhere. I've been following the Preds from the start, Barry Trotz is going to keep a good goalie around if he has that option.

And no Marner does not make us an instant contender. You have an injured Forsberg, Josi, Joey, and Duchene coming back and no clue how good or bad any of them will be. They weren't exactly tearing things up before the injuries to start with. We have no clue what the kids are going to do outside of that either. Even with Marner we are a bubble team at best, cause he ain't putting up 90 points here.

Whether it's Josi's decision to stay or not, it's just a complete waste of time to not try to building a competitive team around the best player (Josi) your team has ever had while he is still a top player. The name of the game is to win the Stanley Cup, and it's only gonna be more unlikely when he's pushing 35 years old, no matter how good the prospects develop on that short time frame

Edit: to add, you need to capitalize on Saros's value now if that's the case as well, or let him walk for nothing

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Whether it's Josi's decision to stay or not, it's just a complete waste of time to not try to building a competitive team around the best player (Josi) your team has ever had while he is still a top player. The name of the game is to win the Stanley Cup, and it's only gonna be more unlikely when he's pushing 35 years old, no matter how good the prospects develop on that short time frame

Edit: to add, you need to capitalize on Saros's value now if that's the case as well, or let him walk for nothing

I'm not worried about Saros walking. "Capitalizing on his value" to me means, yes, keeping him as our #1 goalie for the next 8+ years. That's the best value we can ever get out of him: having a top-5 NHL goalie in the prime of his career. That value cannot be topped in any realistic trade.

Josi's case is more down to his health. He's either going to be what he is now - a productive offensive-oriented top-10 NHL defenseman, or he's going to have to shut down early because of the accumulated concussions. If the latter happens, he's LTIRetiring, so that would be sad, but it doesn't mean we have to trade him now based on that as-yet unsubstantiated fear.

They key is to build around those assets.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'm not going to claim something absurd like Marner actually being bad defensively or something because that's blatantly untrue. But I will say that I think most of the credit for his Selkie nomination - i.e. that which suggests he might actually be exceptional at it - comes from his wearing blue and white. Good, not great.

In any case, our center depth is very much in question. I like the kids, but I don't think we can yet lean on them to the extent that would be necessary to take that gamble. Let them grow more first.

Although per the last paragraph, I do think we saw last year that the kids are ready to at least have the opportunity to be "leaned on". They may or may not prove capable of sustaining that. But I think it's ok to give them a try, given the state of the team overall.

Unless you mean in the context of "What We Need To Contend", in which case, sure, a true #1 center is needed... along with so many other things, it's basically not practical to talk about things in the singular.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Whether it's Josi's decision to stay or not, it's just a complete waste of time to not try to building a competitive team around the best player (Josi) your team has ever had while he is still a top player. The name of the game is to win the Stanley Cup, and it's only gonna be more unlikely when he's pushing 35 years old, no matter how good the prospects develop on that short time frame

Edit: to add, you need to capitalize on Saros's value now if that's the case as well, or let him walk for nothing

I was for either going for it or selling in the past but there are so many viables now. For one marner would not be the one that I would go for IF we were going for it and trading futures. I get marner is an exceptional player but I just don’t see him signing with the preds after 2 years. Plus as stated how good would he be without the superstars around him?

 

[beardawg]

I was for either going for it or selling in the past but there are so many viables now. For one marner would not be the one that I would go for IF we were going for it and trading futures. I get marner is an exceptional player but I just don’t see him signing with the preds after 2 years. Plus as stated how good would he be without the superstars around him?

Those are fair arguments, and I get the concerns around the center depth that others have brought up. Maybe Marner is or isn't the right piece, but I think the sentiment needs to be to make this team competitive right now. Maybe you start the season to see if Novak can replicate last year and if Johansen can rebound to form before making any moves, but to waste Josi's career and Saros' prime years would be a very Nashville move. Content with mediocrity

 

[beardawg]

I'm not worried about Saros walking. "Capitalizing on his value" to me means, yes, keeping him as our #1 goalie for the next 8+ years. That's the best value we can ever get out of him: having a top-5 NHL goalie in the prime of his career. That value cannot be topped in any realistic trade.

Josi's case is more down to his health. He's either going to be what he is now - a productive offensive-oriented top-10 NHL defenseman, or he's going to have to shut down early because of the accumulated concussions. If the latter happens, he's LTIRetiring, so that would be sad, but it doesn't mean we have to trade him now based on that as-yet unsubstantiated fear.

They key is to build around those assets.

Exactly. And they have the assets and cap space to build a competitive team while they are still in the primes of their careers, and Saros is only making $5m. I'm sure he'll be thrilled to resign with the team when he's almost 30 and they've missed the playoffs for 3 straight years

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Those are fair arguments, and I get the concerns around the center depth that others have brought up. Maybe Marner is or isn't the right piece, but I think the sentiment needs to be to make this team competitive right now. Maybe you start the season to see if Novak can replicate last year and if Johansen can rebound to form before making any moves, but to waste Josi's career and Saros' prime years would be a very Nashville move. Content with mediocrity

Any team not an immediate Cup contender is always going to "waste" some players' prime years, should all non-competitive teams just jettison their best players to prevent that? Seems a silly notion. I would dispute Josi's career has been "wasted" in any sense--at the very least there he was a key cog in 3 division titles, a President's Trophy, and a Western Conference Championship. If Saros is concerned about wasting any of his prime years, he is free to exercise his option to move to another organization in 2 years time.

 

[Viqsi]

Content with mediocrity

Every time I see this phrase used, it is always inevitably used as rationalization for high-risk gambles. Doesn't matter what team or what state they're in. It's a thought-terminating cliche, not an argument.

 

[beardawg]

Every time I see this phrase used, it is always inevitably used as rationalization for high-risk gambles. Doesn't matter what team or what state they're in. It's a thought-terminating cliche, not an argument.

Everything in hockey is a gamble. There is never a guarantee for a prospect to pan out or a trade to work out

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Every time I see this phrase used, it is always inevitably used as rationalization for high-risk gambles. Doesn't matter what team or what state they're in. It's a thought-terminating cliche, not an argument.

It's in the same ilk as:
"fine, we don't want your trash player anyway" (when declining poor value trades)
and
"we'll just sign him for free next summer anyway" (when, again, declining poor value trades)

I'm not "content with mediocrity" but I also don't see the sport as something to min/max (e.g. "all in" or "hoist your petard for Bedard"). I actually see a deal like this would ensure more mediocrity than not making the trade--we rent a player that will keep us a playoff bubble team for 2 seasons and then lose him at the cost of all the draft/prospect assets we paid to get him.

The "trade him as a rental" scenario makes it more asinine, so we're basically going to rent Marner for 1.5 seasons with a center depth of Glass/Parssinen/Novak/Sissons and then hope we can recoup the same assets we spent on him (as Doc says, now with an additional 2-year delay til they are ready to play for us)? Why?

 

[Armourboy]

Whether it's Josi's decision to stay or not, it's just a complete waste of time to not try to building a competitive team around the best player (Josi) your team has ever had while he is still a top player. The name of the game is to win the Stanley Cup, and it's only gonna be more unlikely when he's pushing 35 years old, no matter how good the prospects develop on that short time frame

Edit: to add, you need to capitalize on Saros's value now if that's the case as well, or let him walk for nothing

Stop trying to build a team around Josi, you don't build a team around a 32 year old aging defenseman with concussion issues. Josi is the captain, and a veteran presence to help the younger guys coming up. Trotz has already stated that the organization is in a " restart " or we fans refer to it as a " rebuild ".

Marner is the kind of trade you make after you are coming out and need that last boost to get over the top. We haven't even gotten to the bottom let alone get back to a spot where his addition would make a lick of sense.

 

[Viqsi]

Everything in hockey is a gamble. There is never a guarantee for a prospect to pan out or a trade to work out

Responding with more thought-terminating cliches does not bolster your argument.

 

[herzausstein]

Everything in hockey is a gamble. There is never a guarantee for a prospect to pan out or a trade to work out

Marner is a gamble if your team is already most of the way there. Nashville is a team that has been in decline. We havent made it past the first round since 17-18 season. We barely snuck into the playoffs last season and missed this season. If we were on the rise and getting better each year, then maybe this is a gamble you take. But not one that you make when your team is on the outside looking in and every core player is coming back from injury related issues. Josi with his 10th+ concussion, Duchene losing part of his finger, Johansen getting his Achilles cut and requiring surgery when he was already too slow, forsberg with a concussion he has had a hard time coming back from, etc.

 

[beardawg]

Responding with more thought-terminating cliches does not bolster your argument.

You're strawmaning my entire argument off one 3 words that I said while disregarding the paragraphs I've written in favor of my point. You don't have to agree with me, it's okay, but don't be a d bag about it

 

[beardawg]

Stop trying to build a team around Josi, you don't build a team around a 32 year old aging defenseman with concussion issues. Josi is the captain, and a veteran presence to help the younger guys coming up. Trotz has already stated that the organization is in a " restart " or we fans refer to it as a " rebuild ".

Marner is the kind of trade you make after you are coming out and need that last boost to get over the top. We haven't even gotten to the bottom let alone get back to a spot where his addition would make a lick of sense.

He's 32. Could you imagine if every team decided to stop building around their star players when they reached that age?

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Those are fair arguments, and I get the concerns around the center depth that others have brought up. Maybe Marner is or isn't the right piece, but I think the sentiment needs to be to make this team competitive right now. Maybe you start the season to see if Novak can replicate last year and if Johansen can rebound to form before making any moves, but to waste Josi's career and Saros' prime years would be a very Nashville move. Content with mediocrity

I’m not completely against going for players that help our chances next year. As I said marner wouldn’t be that guy for me.( Keller, Konecny) would be players I’d go for over marner. We don’t have the players to make up an elite top line. That’s why I’m completely for going for 3 scoring lines.

 

[Viqsi]

You're strawmaning my entire argument off one 3 words that I said while disregarding the paragraphs I've written in favor of my point. You don't have to agree with me, it's okay, but don't be a d bag about it

Post #82.