Marner Predictions - What Happens Now

[Hellcat]

Sorry but I have to stop you here.

We had a GM literally come out and say criticism of Marner was "idiotic" when Marner put up a horrendous series against the Blue Jackets. Management literally guards players from pressure.

I really don't buy this pressure angle at all - never once has management shown to hold the star players to any real standard of accountability.

Just throwing this out there but perhaps, just perhaps the GM might have more insight into his players than some rando idiot fan..... Nahhhhhhh

 

[IPS]

Just throwing this out there but perhaps, just perhaps the GM might have more insight into his players than some rando idiot fan..... Nahhhhhhh

Dubas had so much insight that Marner proceeded to throw up an even stinkier series against Montreal. Seemed to be some kind of merit to that criticism.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

In virtually identical ice time Pastrnak had more ES goals and points (playing on the top line) than Nylander (playing on the second line), but Nylander had more PP goals, more PK goals and assists, more OT goals and more GWGs, with a better shooting % and faceoff %.

I disagree with alot of assumptions I think are made based on this and how the reasonings are presented

Firstly, lets examine linemates
Pastrnak plays/ed mostly with: Coyle, Zacha, Marchand, Debrusk, Bergeron
Coyle - 60 points this season, 45 the season before
Zacha - 59 points this season, 57 the season before
Marchand - 67 points this season, 67 the season before
Debrusk - 40 points this season, 50 the season before
Bergeron - N/A this season, 58 the season before

Nylander plays/ed mostly with: Tavares, Matthews, Knies, Bertuzzi, Kerfoot
Tavares - 65 points this season, 80 the season before
Matthews - 107 points this season, 85 the season before
Knies - 35 points this season, N/A the season before
Bertuzzi - 43 points this season, N/A before
Kerfoot N/A this season, 32 the season before

So it's identical linemates, maybe slight edge to pastrnak, but its going against the top lines and shutdown pairings of the league vs the second wave for nylander.

Next statistics
since 19-20
Nylander
363GP 162G 204A 366P +10
113EVG 46PPG 3SHG 28GWG 1195S 13.6%
127EVA 76 PPA 1SHA
90 Hits 114Blocks

Noticeable Point/Award finishes: Points(10th)

Pastrnak
354GP 216G 227A 445P +99
145EVG 71PPG 0SHG 40 GWG 1556S 13.9%
148EVA 71PPA 0SHA
306! Hits 101Blocks

Noticeable Point/Award finishes:
Hart: 4th, 2nd, 8th
Richard: 1st, 2nd
Points: 3rd, 3rd, 5th

Since 21-22
Nylander
245GP 114G 151A 265P +2
78EVG 33PPG 3SHG 19GWG 865Shots 13.2%
89EVA 61PPA 1SHA
69Hits 85Blocks

Pastrnak
236GP 148G 152A 300P +68
103EVG 45PPPG 0SHG 27GWG 1101Shots 13.4%
99EVA 53PPA 0SHA
224Hits 66Blocks

So he has less PP goals more PP assists, more PK goals and assists, less GWG', lower shooting percentage, lower award finishes and less of any notable point finishes. Why does faceoff percentage dictate a winger being better than another winger.

I don't see how this shows nylander is an equivalent player to Pastrnak

 

[Antropovsky]

Beats what others want or are predicting. $12.5 million x 8 for a guy who slowly disappears the deeper a series goes. #LetHimWalk.

I've been rewatching the Bruins series, and the more I watch, the more I'm blown away by Marner's incredibly soft play. That's saying a lot because my expectations for him were already low. Nylander looks like Peter Forsberg by comparison. Attached is a screengrab of Marner making himself really small and covering his face as the Bruins defender Carlo receives a pass at the point. For context, Carlo never appears even ready to take a heavy shot and he his wind up isnt much higher than his ankles. Carlo harmlessly directs the puck into the corner, right by Marner. I gave Marner the benefit of the doubt and watched for other players doing the same, but not once did I see anyone covering their faces.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I disagree with alot of assumptions I think are made based on this and how the reasonings are presented

Firstly, lets examine linemates
Pastrnak plays/ed mostly with: Coyle, Zacha, Marchand, Debrusk, Bergeron
Coyle - 60 points this season, 45 the season before
Zacha - 59 points this season, 57 the season before
Marchand - 67 points this season, 67 the season before
Debrusk - 40 points this season, 50 the season before
Bergeron - N/A this season, 58 the season before

Nylander plays/ed mostly with: Tavares, Matthews, Knies, Bertuzzi, Kerfoot
Tavares - 65 points this season, 80 the season before
Matthews - 107 points this season, 85 the season before
Knies - 35 points this season, N/A the season before
Bertuzzi - 43 points this season, N/A before
Kerfoot N/A this season, 32 the season before

So it's identical linemates, maybe slight edge to pastrnak, but its going against the top lines and shutdown pairings of the league vs the second wave for nylander.

Next statistics
since 19-20
Nylander
363GP 162G 204A 366P +10
113EVG 46PPG 3SHG 28GWG 1195S 13.6%
127EVA 76 PPA 1SHA
90 Hits 114Blocks

Noticeable Point/Award finishes: Points(10th)

Pastrnak
354GP 216G 227A 445P +99
145EVG 71PPG 0SHG 40 GWG 1556S 13.9%
148EVA 71PPA 0SHA
306! Hits 101Blocks

Noticeable Point/Award finishes:
Hart: 4th, 2nd, 8th
Richard: 1st, 2nd
Points: 3rd, 3rd, 5th

Since 21-22
Nylander
245GP 114G 151A 265P +2
78EVG 33PPG 3SHG 19GWG 865Shots 13.2%
89EVA 61PPA 1SHA
69Hits 85Blocks

Pastrnak
236GP 148G 152A 300P +68
103EVG 45PPPG 0SHG 27GWG 1101Shots 13.4%
99EVA 53PPA 0SHA
224Hits 66Blocks

So he has less PP goals more PP assists, more PK goals and assists, less GWG', lower shooting percentage, lower award finishes and less of any notable point finishes. Why does faceoff percentage dictate a winger being better than another winger.

I don't see how this shows nylander is an equivalent player to Pastrnak

If you ignore the fact that he plays a lot more with Tavares than Matthews....

So you have to go back five years to give Pasternak the edge? That kind of proves my point. All you've shown is that Pasternak hits more. I might point out the Nylander had more blocks and more takeways and a lot fewer giveaways last year.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

If you ignore the fact that he plays a lot more with Tavares than Matthews....

So you have to go back five years to give Pasternak the edge? That kind of proves my point. All you've shown is that Pasternak hits more. I might point out the Nylander had more blocks and more takeways and a lot fewer giveaways last year.

And tavares is still better than Coyle or Zacha, so It doesn't matter either way

I went back 5 years because that's when nylander broke out properly, that's when he changed his style and learned how to score goals, and it gives a large sample size to see both players

I was being lazy, but you could do any sample, and Pastrnak comes out on top. in the past three years pastrnak has a much better resume than nylander. As for the blocks, both block almost nothing so it doesn't matter, I can agree to say that nylander is a better transition player, especially with how he takes care of the puck compared to pastrnak.

Last two years its 87 and 98 vs 113 and 110. 40 and 40 vs 61 and 47, You can't really cover that gap through....block takeaways or even linemates.

pastrnak has scored more goals, assists, points, hits, gwg, etc.etc

How does one guy get outproduced by 20 points and be worse in the above categories, and still be a better player?

 

[egd27]

last year Matthews played with 3 playmaker style linemates. Domi, Nylander and Marner. Nylander being also a scoring threat, while the other two not so much. Here there primary assist rate on Matthews goals/60.

Primary assists per/60 on Matthew goals
11 million Marner: 0.83
7 million Nylander: 0.89
3 million Domi: 1.45

Time on Ice with Matthews
Marner - 1035:22
Nylander - 619:46
Domi - 239:31

oh look, sample size may play a factor in a "pace type" stat.....shocking

 

[notDatsyuk]

And tavares is still better than Coyle or Zacha, so It doesn't matter either way

I went back 5 years because that's when nylander broke out properly, that's when he changed his style and learned how to score goals, and it gives a large sample size to see both players

I was being lazy, but you could do any sample, and Pastrnak comes out on top. in the past three years pastrnak has a much better resume than nylander. As for the blocks, both block almost nothing so it doesn't matter, I can agree to say that nylander is a better transition player, especially with how he takes care of the puck compared to pastrnak.

Last two years its 87 and 98 vs 113 and 110. 40 and 40 vs 61 and 47, You can't really cover that gap through....block takeaways or even linemates.

pastrnak has scored more goals, assists, points, hits, gwg, etc.etc

How does one guy get outproduced by 20 points and be worse in the above categories, and still be a better player?

Tavares had virtually identical numbers at both ES and overall as both Coyle and Zacha, so I'm not sure why you think he's still better. Or why going back five years is best when discussing new contracts.

I don't suppose it would be fair to consider left wingers?

As I said earlier, last year Nylander had more PP goals, more PK goals and assists, more OT goals and more GWGs, with a better shooting % and faceoff %.

What I did not say was that Nylander was a better player. I said they were comparable. I also said many times, although not specifically in this current discussion, that Nylander is overpaid - not 'hugely' as some posters have said, but overpaid.

Matthews got outscored by almost 40 points last year but got paid more.

 

[IPS]

I've been rewatching the Bruins series, and the more I watch, the more I'm blown away by Marner's incredibly soft play.

I usually rewatch a few weeks after when the disappointment dissipates and I can be a bit more objective and yeah, Marner's play was utterly disgraceful. They got this guy wearing an A in a leadership role playing like this too.

I really don't take any of the short memories around here very seriously,

And tavares is still better than Coyle or Zacha, so It doesn't matter either way

I went back 5 years because that's when nylander broke out properly, that's when he changed his style and learned how to score goals, and it gives a large sample size to see both players

I was being lazy, but you could do any sample, and Pastrnak comes out on top. in the past three years pastrnak has a much better resume than nylander. As for the blocks, both block almost nothing so it doesn't matter, I can agree to say that nylander is a better transition player, especially with how he takes care of the puck compared to pastrnak.

Last two years its 87 and 98 vs 113 and 110. 40 and 40 vs 61 and 47, You can't really cover that gap through....block takeaways or even linemates.

pastrnak has scored more goals, assists, points, hits, gwg, etc.etc

How does one guy get outproduced by 20 points and be worse in the above categories, and still be a better player?

Maybe we could get some loyal faithfuls in here to police this saying the threads about Marner and not Nylander.

I think that only counts when people are bad mouthing Marner in other threads though.

 

[WTFMAN99]

With the whole salary deferral revelation thing that came out of the Jarvis contract extension, I do wonder about a pathway for Marner to completely 180 the entire fan base?

If he signed for 8 years 9M per and deferred a bunch of signing bonuses to year "9" of a contract...he'd look like a bloody hero.

Do I think this will happen? No but it actually slightly inched the door open in my eyes on a very specific scenario that could endear him to fans.

 

[Mess]

With the whole salary deferral revelation thing that came out of the Jarvis contract extension, I do wonder about a pathway for Marner to completely 180 the entire fan base?

If he signed for 8 years 9M per and deferred a bunch of signing bonuses to year "9" of a contract...he'd look like a bloody hero.

Do I think this will happen? No but it actually slightly inched the door open in my eyes on a very specific scenario that could endear him to fans.

 

[ACC1224]

With the whole salary deferral revelation thing that came out of the Jarvis contract extension, I do wonder about a pathway for Marner to completely 180 the entire fan base?

If he signed for 8 years 9M per and deferred a bunch of signing bonuses to year "9" of a contract...he'd look like a bloody hero.

Do I think this will happen? No but it actually slightly inched the door open in my eyes on a very specific scenario that could endear him to fans.

Did it apply to Draisaitl's new contract?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Did it apply to Draisaitl's new contract?

Centre
Edmonton (cold weather tax)
Underpaid on previous contract
Playoff performer

Just the differences that came to mind in about 5 seconds.

 

[ACC1224]

Centre
Edmonton (cold weather tax)
Underpaid on previous contract
Playoff performer

Just the differences that came to mind in about 5 seconds.

I guess I'm not following . Would he have not been eligible for a deferral? You'd think any player would be happy to keep the cap hit down as long as they're getting their money.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I guess I'm not following . Would he have not been eligible for a deferral? You'd think any player would be happy to keep the cap hit down as long as they're getting their money.

Frontloaded from the tweet I have seen.

I miss capfriendly's breakdown

This mechanism of deferral isn't popular, only Slavin and Jarvis have done it so far because players want their money now not later.

 

[seanlinden]

I dont think as black and white as you're saying. Why did Phoenix pack up and move to a university then? Why didnt they just enjoy being irrelevent?

The Leafs market being too high pressure... that part is difficult to assess too. Are the Leafs failing because of pressure or is it because one of these factors?:

- a young inexperienced coach
- core dont want to pay the price
- bad goaltending

What are people seeing on the ice that looks like failures as a result of pressure?

Ive watched the games back...its coaching, subpar goaltending, and expensive players not wanting to play playoff hockey. Its actually the opposite of pressure... no pressure from management. Which also supports CJs theory.

Now compare that to a Team such as Dallas, whose very frustrated CEO said this a few years ago:

Dallas Stars management and ownership are not being shy about venting their frustration over the play of their two top scorers.

Per The Athletic's Sean Shapiro, Stars CEO Jim Lites described Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn as "f--king horses--t" for their performances during Thursday's 2-0 win against the Nashville Predators.

We are a stars-driven league, and our stars aren't getting it done," Lites said. "It's embarrassing, and no one writes it. Write it! These guys are not good enough. They're not good enough for me, they're not good enough for the owner and they're certainly not good enough for the general manager, whom I can't speak for, but it's not good enough for the job he's done."

There are two, opposing factors when comparing teams like Florida and Phoenix to Toronto and Montreal.

At an ownership / general manager level - there is a greater financial incentive to win in these small markets than there is in the big markets. Not neccessarily in total quantum (the Leafs would make more money on a 4-round cup run than the Panthers did), but rather, winning determines how your season ticket sales go next year, going deep in the playoffs might be the difference between saying "this was a good use of the billion $ I have tied up in the team", versus not.

At a player level, the pressure to win in the smaller markets is much, much less. There's just a lot less scrutiny. Guys can walk into a Starbucks or Chipotle without feeling like every single person in the restaurant is staring at him. When the team isn't going well, they don't have a mob of reporters shoving a microphone in their face. It's a couple of guys that develop much stronger relationships with each individual player, and know, to a degree, when to lay off as they're not needing to "compete" for the scoop.

Players in Toronto feel pressure constantly, so management has to focus their efforts on "coddling", "trying to tune out the noise", rather than having the ability to occasionally have a CEO go on a tirade as a wakeup call.


The other challenge is -- look at the makeup of this team -- specifically at the top -- it's skill players. Skill players are at their best when they have the confidence to "play their game". This isn't the 1993 Pat Burns Maple Leafs, who'd happily show you their skill in the parking lot, and who thrived on the pressure that Toronto brang to boost their "run through a brick wall" attitude. This isn't the 2002-2004 Pat Quinn Maple Leafs with Gary Roberts, Owen Nolan, Darcy Tucker, Bryan McCabe, Travis Green, and Shayne Corson. Even Mats Sundin, was far from afraid to play below the goal lines.

This is a team led by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner -- three players who are supremely skilled... but not the "run through a brick wall" kind of players.

 

[Antropovsky]

There are two, opposing factors when comparing teams like Florida and Phoenix to Toronto and Montreal.

At an ownership / general manager level - there is a greater financial incentive to win in these small markets than there is in the big markets. Not neccessarily in total quantum (the Leafs would make more money on a 4-round cup run than the Panthers did), but rather, winning determines how your season ticket sales go next year, going deep in the playoffs might be the difference between saying "this was a good use of the billion $ I have tied up in the team", versus not.

At a player level, the pressure to win in the smaller markets is much, much less. There's just a lot less scrutiny. Guys can walk into a Starbucks or Chipotle without feeling like every single person in the restaurant is staring at him. When the team isn't going well, they don't have a mob of reporters shoving a microphone in their face. It's a couple of guys that develop much stronger relationships with each individual player, and know, to a degree, when to lay off as they're not needing to "compete" for the scoop.

Players in Toronto feel pressure constantly, so management has to focus their efforts on "coddling", "trying to tune out the noise", rather than having the ability to occasionally have a CEO go on a tirade as a wakeup call.


The other challenge is -- look at the makeup of this team -- specifically at the top -- it's skill players. Skill players are at their best when they have the confidence to "play their game". This isn't the 1993 Pat Burns Maple Leafs, who'd happily show you their skill in the parking lot, and who thrived on the pressure that Toronto brang to boost their "run through a brick wall" attitude. This isn't the 2002-2004 Pat Quinn Maple Leafs with Gary Roberts, Owen Nolan, Darcy Tucker, Bryan McCabe, Travis Green, and Shayne Corson. Even Mats Sundin, was far from afraid to play below the goal lines.

This is a team led by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner -- three players who are supremely skilled... but not the "run through a brick wall" kind of players.

I Agree there is more pressure in Toronto. However, this also can be a driving force for players. huge turning our for a parade, treated like "gods". There is motivating factors to a huge fan base too. Many many former players and coaches have indicated how playing in Toronto was incredible (Cujo, Quinn, Sundin etc).

Before I pin any series loss on pressure, i need to see the Leafs actually look like the harder working, more desperare team. A player making 12% of the cap, and playing nearly 50% of the game, leaving a puck in the corner that hes 10' closer too than the opposition or covering his face with his glove while getting really skinny when he suspects a point shot certainly isnt gonna help any team win. Thats practice level effort... in a playoff series.

 

[Ulysses31]

drai set the print for marners next contract

 

[hullsy47]

drai set the print for marners next contract

I think the blue jackets sign marner . Unless he takes under 12 in Toronto.
He'd be an instant hit in Columbus

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I think the blue jackets sign marner . Unless he takes under 12 in Toronto.
He'd be an instant hit in Columbus

I'll drive him to the airport.

 

[Antropovsky]

I usually rewatch a few weeks after when the disappointment dissipates and I can be a bit more objective and yeah, Marner's play was utterly disgraceful. They got this guy wearing an A in a leadership role playing like this too.

Yeah, its pretty incredible watching it back and seeing how physically checked out he is. Leafs lost 3-1 in game 4, but Marners finger prints were all over the loss.

For example:
The 2-0 pp goal against:
Marners stick is never in the passing lane, and his check easily makes a reverse pass to the point. Everyone is way out of position after the pass and Boston easily scores. Marner throughout the game is just kinda coasting with one hand on the stick with no urgency to his game.

Huge passing lane to Marners right

Pass is directly in front of Marner

Boston easily scores

 

[Mess]

drai set the print for marners next contract

As long as you don't compare stats and productivity to determine contract price.

Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl are (closer) in comparables in terms of contracts. not Mitch Marner despite Marner making +$2.4 mil more than Leon the past 5 years.

Who would believe that these 2 are comparable ? How many 50 goal or 100 point seasons has Marner had during their 2nd contracts,

Only in Toronto would these 2 players be considered equals or comparbles.

 

[ACC1224]

As long as you don't compare stats and productivity to determine contract price.

Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl are (closer) in comparables in terms of contracts. not Mitch Marner despite Marner making +$2.4 mil more than Leon the past 5 years.

Who would believe that these 2 are comparable ? How many 50 goal or 100 point seasons has Marner had during their 2nd contracts,

View attachment 904781

View attachment 904783

Only in Toronto would these 2 players be considered equals or comparbles.

Only those that willfully show their ignorance would consider them comparable.

Who in Toronto is considering this or was that made up(like many things in this thread) for dramatic effect?

 

[seanlinden]

I Agree there is more pressure in Toronto. However, this also can be a driving force for players. huge turning our for a parade, treated like "gods". There is motivating factors to a huge fan base too. Many many former players and coaches have indicated how playing in Toronto was incredible (Cujo, Quinn, Sundin etc).

Before I pin any series loss on pressure, i need to see the Leafs actually look like the harder working, more desperare team. A player making 12% of the cap, and playing nearly 50% of the game, leaving a puck in the corner that hes 10' closer too than the opposition or covering his face with his glove while getting really skinny when he suspects a point shot certainly isnt gonna help any team win. Thats practice level effort... in a playoff series.

Correct... but it depends on the type of player that you're talking about.

If you're talking about a guy like Darcy Tucker, or Mats Sundin, forcing their way through that pile with 80 seconds left in game 6 to force overtime against the Canes, then yes, that "pressure" might just be the push you need.

However, we also likely need to relaize that Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner aren't neccessarily the types of players that "benefit" from additional pressure. Nylander I think is -- just given his propensity to go on vacation at times. Matthews might be -- given how successful he can be in the corners. Marner -- probably not, where that pressure gets to his head, afraid to make the confident (and potentially dangerous) pass that makes him so effective, and kind of turns him into a little bit of a useless player where he's not doing what makes him great, and not really equipped to go win a board battle; because he's never in that position all season.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Only in Toronto would these 2 players be considered equals or comparbles.

Comparable accepted. This is kind to Mitch, who is incapable of playing playoff hockey.