Prospect Info: Marner Magic about to take OHL by kNight -All purpose thread

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I don't think you understand hockey.

When you're drafting top five in the NHL Entry Draft, what you want is to walk away with the a Dale Hawerchuk, Steve Yzerman, John Tavares, Ron Francis, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane etc. who can hit the ground running from day one and be the cornerstone of your team, showing improvement every year on the road to stardom and Stanley Cup contention. It's as simple as that.

Barring those ideal results, teams will pick a player with some ratio of potential upside and NHL readiness. You pick a guy like Marner who is long on potential but short on maturity, you have to wait. You pick a guy like Luke Schenn who is physically mature but has no upside, then he makes the NHL early but has no room for growth.

But to suggest that an NHL team doesn't want an NHL ready impact player and would rather develop them slowly is a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes this league work.

Leafs are going to have to be patient with Marner. He's paper-thin, like Nugent-Hopkins, but both have a lot of skill. RNH hasn't eclipsed 60 points yet but I'd argue he's still very valuable.

Wait and see, wait and see..

 

[Semantics]

Also putting on 30 pounds of muscle is nearly impossible for an ectomorph in a high demand sport

This is pretty funny from a Leafs fan since Nylander, who already put on 21 lbs over the past year, is a counter-example staring you right in the face.

 

[hotpaws]

This is pretty funny from a Leafs fan since Nylander, who already put on 21 lbs over the past year, is a counter-example staring you right in the face.

yea especially since they had Marner listed as already gaining 10 lbs since the nhl combines

 

[Pilky01]

I don't think you understand hockey.

When you're drafting top five in the NHL Entry Draft, what you want is to walk away with the a Dale Hawerchuk, Steve Yzerman, John Tavares, Ron Francis, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane etc. who can hit the ground running from day one and be the cornerstone of your team, showing improvement every year on the road to stardom and Stanley Cup contention. It's as simple as that.

Barring those ideal results, teams will pick a player with some ratio of potential upside and NHL readiness. You pick a guy like Marner who is long on potential but short on maturity, you have to wait. You pick a guy like Luke Schenn who is physically mature but has no upside, then he makes the NHL early but has no room for growth.

But to suggest that an NHL team doesn't want an NHL ready impact player and would rather develop them slowly is a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes this league work.

It is almost like you are arguing Marner should stay with the team because you wish he was good enough to make it.

Considering I share the same opinion of the entire Leafs brass I think I have at least some understanding of the game.

 

[Semantics]

Kadri was only 10 pounds heavier than marner in his first preaeason and it was his first time playing against men.

Kadri also was also 7 months older and had a bigger gap than that in strength and physical maturity. Plus, during Kadri's first camp Wilson just threw the kids out on the ice and let them play run and gun. Vastly different than under Babcock where camp has been all about learning his systems rather than a talent show.

 

[Durrr]

Kadri was only 10 pounds heavier than marner in his first preaeason and it was his first time playing against men. Kadri dominated, marner didn't do Jack squat.

Its not just physical maturity, marner has quite a few other issues at this point.

Also putting on 30 pounds of muscle is nearly impossible for an ectomorph in a high demand sport

Kadri was given top minutes and played a ton of games, not one game on the 3rd/4th line wing. Such typical crap from fans who have no idea what they are talking about (not directed at you). Marner has the same issues that face a lot of prospects, even elite ones.

He's not physically mature enough to be thrown into the NHL, unless you want him to turn into Nugent-Hopkins. Skilled player who wasn't able to develop properly due to his draft ranking and have likley been developmentally harmed in the process.

 

[Stephen]

It is almost like you are arguing Marner should stay with the team because you wish he was good enough to make it.

Considering I share the same opinion of the entire Leafs brass I think I have at least some understanding of the game.

No, I'm arguing that in an ideal world you draft a top five pick who can be successful right away. The extra seasoning is fine because it's necessary but hardly the perfect scenario.

 

[Durrr]

No, I'm arguing that in an ideal world you draft a top five pick who can be successful right away. The extra seasoning is fine because it's necessary but hardly the perfect scenario.

All you did was single out some extreme cases where a prospect jumped in right away, and your pretending it's some how not ideal or negative to have him develop longer

Fact is, most top 5 draft picks (not 1st overall) take extra development, and it's really not an indication of where they will end up.

 

[JSn0w93]

Marner has already missed two games and is likely to miss a few more due to the World Juniors. However hypothetically if Marner stayed healthy all season and plays 55 games for London. 130 points, are you taking the over or under?

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Marner has already missed two games and is likely to miss a few more due to the World Juniors. However hypothetically if Marner stayed healthy all season and plays 55 games for London. 130, points are you taking the over or under?

Under sounds like a safer bet

 

[hotpaws]

Marners jr production this year will not determine whether he can make the step to the pros next year . He needs to get much stronger and develop a more **** you attitude that small successful players seem to have when playing against bigger opponents.

as pleasantly surprised as i was with Dermott's camp i was equally disappointed with Marner's showing

I didn't expect him to make the team but i did expect him to have a similar if not better showing than Nylander/Kadri had . He didn't show any spark/jump out there and looked very intimidated . Hopefully he fills out a little by next year and comes in with much more confidence and shows why we took him with the 4th o/a pick .

 

[Menzinger]

Yzerman was a 4th overall, Ron Francis was a 4th overall and Marner put up offense comparable to first overall picks in some instances and was compared to Patrick Kane, so maybe I do know what I'm talking about.

I don't dispute the rest of what you're saying and I'm pretty sure Marner will benefit tremendously in the OHL this year, but let's not pretend that the purpose of picking in the top 5 is to have a guy who isn't ready right away.

I don't quite agree with this narrative. He purpose of a top five pick is to get the best possible NHLer that you can. Everyone has a unique development path.

Just because one plays in the NHl earlier does not mean they will be the better player.

 

[TLeafsFan]

Good luck trying to break every OHL record imaginable Marner.

 

[burpsalot]

Kadri was only 10 pounds heavier than marner in his first preaeason and it was his first time playing against men. Kadri dominated, marner didn't do Jack squat.

Its not just physical maturity, marner has quite a few other issues at this point.

Also putting on 30 pounds of muscle is nearly impossible for an ectomorph in a high demand sport

Kadri has been shaving since he was 4. When Lamoriello gave everyone a pre-season gift of a razor, he gave Marner clearasil.

 

[Semantics]

Marner has already missed two games and is likely to miss a few more due to the World Juniors. However hypothetically if Marner stayed healthy all season and plays 55 games for London. 130 points, are you taking the over or under?

I don't expect a big jump in production for the simple reason that a lot of his focus is going to be on things other than his point totals: time in the gym getting stronger, the WJC, and becoming the two way center the Leafs want to groom him as. He doesn't have to worry about proving himself and padding stats for the draft this year, and the time away at the WJC may make a scoring title unrealistic to chase. I think he'll spend more time in the gym and eating, even if it makes him a big sluggish during games, just like what Reinhart did last year.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Marner is a human highlight-reel player in the OHL, explosive and dynamic, and a point producing machine. We didn't see any of that take you out of your seat moments that created buzz around his play. He didn't record any points and had just a few offensive moments with a nice pass or chance, but nothing more than we saw from Timashov.

We all knew/expected he would struggle physically based on where he is size wise, but something else seemed to be off. If someone didn't know he was a 2.0 PPG player last year you wouldn't based on his play in camp this year as expectation would have been higher impact as a top 5 pick overall. The timing is likely the more surprising aspect in that he didn't show more to deserve a longer look.

His stature shouldn't have effected his decision making or playmaking or confidence level as Marner claimed he didn't feel intimidated by bigger more physical players. No question he will go back and tear the cover off OHL scoring race, but we already know he is capable of that as he just did it.

Perhaps it was just nerves that got the best of him and that mentally effected him and next year that will no longer play as big a factor.

Needing to develop physically isn't all about getting stronger though. You mention his explosiveness, it was very obvious in camp that he wasn't explosive enough. When that happens he can't cause separation and create space, so he gets players all over him. When that happens he gets outmuscled and dominated physically, which makes it pretty impossible for him to actually do much with the puck.

It all connects back to his physical development.

Yzerman was a 4th overall, Ron Francis was a 4th overall and Marner put up offense comparable to first overall picks in some instances and was compared to Patrick Kane, so maybe I do know what I'm talking about.

I don't dispute the rest of what you're saying and I'm pretty sure Marner will benefit tremendously in the OHL this year, but let's not pretend that the purpose of picking in the top 5 is to have a guy who isn't ready right away.

Plenty of top 5 picks need extra development. Whether they are ready now or later isn't why they get picked there. It's because they project to be the best players down the line.

Anyone that wasn't sleeping the last year or so knows that Marner was always going to need at least a year of development, so I'm not sure why you are arguing like this.

 

[13pacheco31]

Wow you're saying a 160 pound 18 year old didnt rack up points in his first 3 NHL games in his life and playing against men for the first time in his life?!?!?! WOW!!!! WHO woulda thought

I'd love to see these boards if we had a guy like D. Pouliot who still hasn't made the NHL since being drafted back in 2012, or a guy like Draisatl/Nurse/S.Reinhart. This board is filled with people that dont know **** about hockey thats why TML fans get ripped on on HF more than any fan base

My objection is not that he can't make the team as a 160 lbs 18 year old, it's that he didn't impress in the rookie camp (in fact some later picks in this year's draft looked better), he didn't impress much in the main camp and IMO he was just okay at the world Jr camp this summer. This isn't to say he's a bust but it's a bit of a red flag when your top flight prospect who was taken 4th overall and is suppose to have franchise potentially isn't looking like an elite prospect. I guess we'll see in a year from now how he looks.

 

[mikebel111*]

Hanifin hasnt looked good either
Let me guess, I am sure Canes managment should be worried about him
Man we have impatience fans

 

[burpsalot]

My objection is not that he can't make the team as a 160 lbs 18 year old, it's that he didn't impress in the rookie camp (in fact some later picks in this year's draft looked better), he didn't impress much in the main camp and IMO he was just okay at the world Jr camp this summer. This isn't to say he's a bust but it's a bit of a red flag when your top flight prospect who was taken 4th overall and is suppose to have franchise potentially isn't looking like an elite prospect. I guess we'll see in a year from now how he looks.

I considered him at another level above most at the World Junior Camp.

I doubt management sees any red flag, they drafted an elite prospect that they all knew was at least 1 year away from making the team & probably at least 3 years before he starts to make an impact with the big club.

 

[snizzbone*]

Definitely don't think Marner will score as much this year. I think he'll be focused on his overall game more so that will lead to less offensive output but he'll be better because of it.

 

[X66]

People are wrongly pointing out that size is what held Marner back IMHO.

I love Marner as a prospect and will continue to believe he was the right pick, but more than size, what made him like meh was his decision making. He didn't make the best decisions with the puck, whether it be over thinking and/or nerves, he just needed to play a simpler game, if that makes any sense.

There were many times he would get the puck and quickly dish it off, sometimes missing the player. That can be a combination of the players he's passing it to not knowing just how talented/quick his moves are but it is also on him to slow it down as well.

 

[hotpaws]

Hanifin hasnt looked good either
Let me guess, I am sure Canes managment should be worried about him
Man we have impatience fans

I heard he's having a very good camp , where did you here he hasn't looked good ?

 

[orbiter11]

Shannahan has made some good moves to earn a pass for a couple of years. Signing Babcock was great. But I hope we dont put blinders on at the moves management has made especially before Lou got here. The Kessel trade could have been a bit premature and got nothing back for value. And had Burke drafted Marner and passed on Hanafin I dont know if this would be hyped as much. Hanafin is slotted in on the second pairing this year and I think it would have been the more prudent move considering our history on defense(I said this before the draft) Gardiner isnt going to magically change his game and after Reilly we have nothing special coming in on our back end. It woukd be a huge dissapointment if Marner takes the path of Drouin and Hanafin turns into Jones

 

[Stephen]

The calculation on Marner is he's a special talent and over the long run a more impactful player than Hanifin is likely to be.

I think Patrick Kane, Claude Giroux and Kyle Turris are good examples of the likely range we see with this guy. Patrick Kane is your best case scenario, who jumped in right away despite being ridiculously small and hit the ground running towards helping a franchise find its way back to greatness. Next is Claude Giroux, who was a small guy who spent a few years maturing and evolving into a high end scorer. The worst case scenario is Turris. He was a very skilled prospect who took a few years to get going, but didn't have the ceiling that people hoped he would have.

Marner likely has the higher ceiling between he and Hanifin, but Hanifin probably has a better floor, and if they both reach about 80% of their potential, Hanifin likely is a more impactful player because of his position, skating and frame.

 

[orbiter11]

The calculation on Marner is he's a special talent and over the long run a more impactful player than Hanifin is likely to be.

I think Patrick Kane, Claude Giroux and Kyle Turris are good examples of the likely range we see with this guy. Patrick Kane is your best case scenario, who jumped in right away despite being ridiculously small and hit the ground running towards helping a franchise find its way back to greatness. Next is Claude Giroux, who was a small guy who spent a few years maturing and evolving into a high end scorer. The worst case scenario is Turris. He was a very skilled prospect who took a few years to get going, but didn't have the ceiling that people hoped he would have.

Marner likely has the higher ceiling between he and Hanifin, but Hanifin probably has a better floor, and if they both reach about 80% of their potential, Hanifin likely is a more impactful player because of his position, skating and frame.

Completely agree with your analysis. Didnt we just do this with Kessel(because I dont see why Marner will be a center over winger). The whole you cant build a team on a smallish winger? Anyway I guess i have to buy in to this draft. A Nylander ,Marner combo would be nice. And i have to give Hunter and Dubas credit for influencing the drafting of Nylander.