Prospect Info: Marner Magic about to take OHL by kNight -All purpose thread

[Faltorvo]

Speak ill of Marner all you want. It's the constant mentioning of Hanifin that's getting old. He's NHL ready his first year, Marner isn't. This doesn't mean Noah is guaranteed to have a better career than Marner. Constantly lamenting the fact that the Leafs didn't pick your guy and giving us daily updates on Hanifin is annoying.

It takes years for prospects to truly show what they are. Some come in immediately and dominate but then fade into obscurity. Some start slow but go on to be great. Give it time before posting such absolutes like "Hunter screwed up."

it's a no win thing tommy

someone speaks their mind now and they are told, "sheesh shut up and wait, you don't know, you can't see into the future"

and when they wait to see how things flush out (say like the first kessel trade) , they are told "sheesh, shut up, that was so 4 years ago and hind sight is 20/20 blah blah.

hell, folks around here are told to shut up and have threads closed about things and players 1 or 2 weeks after the event, ( like it's soooo yesterdays news and not worthy)


hehe even the mods get into it , they lock up season prediction threads when they are brought up near the end of the year, then I have to ask WTH is the point of those threads to begin with?

 

[ULF_55]

So what if Kadri lit up his rookie training camp? Look where he is now, it's not like he's lit up the league entirely since then .. Yeesh.

We knew Marner wasn't ready .. He showed that he needs more physical development to compete in the NHL. End of story

Exactly.

He wasn't ready and it was obvious.

That doesn't mean he won't be ready in a couple years, but he wasn't good this preseason.

No he wasn't good.

 

[Faltorvo]

It's just mindblowing.
like "well, Nylander dominated his camp, and Kadri dominated his camp, therefore, because Marner didn't, Hunter made a mistake, so, boohoo sky is over."

because. you know. that's totally how development, and life goes. call me when it's his +2 year, and he's actually bigger and stronger. and as some Knights fans said to me, he's a slow starter. maybe he's the kind of person who won't get going the first two weeks of camp (or the season), then completely lights it up. who knows?

I would have been happy with Hanifin too but this constant "well, Hunter made a mistake." needs to freaking stop. you can't qualify that so soon. Or rather. you can, but anyone worth their salt, would give you an amazing side-eye, and tell you to get out.

this isn't about talking negative about Marner and that it's not allowed. if there was something legitimately to talk about his play in the negative that's one thing. to have such an arbitratry complaint is another.






we'll see how he does.

I'm sorry DJ but I can't fully agree with the bolded.

The truth is, some folks have already made that call, laid out a definitive opinion on that matter.

That would be the people responsible for drafting marn over hanif.

 

[Daisy Jane]

So what if Kadri lit up his rookie training camp? Look where he is now, it's not like he's lit up the league entirely since then .. Yeesh.

We knew Marner wasn't ready .. He showed that he needs more physical development to compete in the NHL. End of story

liar. it means that Hunter made a massive mistake. he should have said "we draft McDavid. ignore Chia."

 

[Daisy Jane]

I'm sorry DJ but I can't fully agree with the bolded.

The truth is, some folks have already made that call, laid out a definitive opinion on that matter.

That would be the people responsible for drafting marn over hanif.

based on what?

a small rookie tournament and two NHL preseason games, after everyone involved (Leafs, Marner) said he needs to get bigger/stronger? like it's one thing to say this after a year. or something but literally? 6 games? (and I don't think he played all of the tournament) so correction: 4 games. we're calling drafting this kid a mistake after 4 pro-esque games.

golly.

 

[FlareKnight]

Any chance we're going to talk about Marner as a prospect in the Marner prospect thread? Seems we've gotten so sidetracked the discussion is either bashing people about patience (ironic since we don't seem to be patient with each other on this forum), the career of Hanifin, or Leafs drafting in general.

He didn't have a mindblowing camp, that happened. There are reasons that happened that shouldn't have shocked anyone. Key now is seeing how his season goes in junior. Hopefully he can light up the league, have a great world junior, and be a lot stronger for the next camp. If he can just get strong enough then that talent will be able to shine a lot more clearly.

Always a chance things don't work out, but we can't know that now. I just can't wait for him to get in the lineup and get going. Have something more interesting to talk about at that point.

 

[Faltorvo]

based on what?

a small rookie tournament and two NHL preseason games, after everyone involved (Leafs, Marner) said he needs to get bigger/stronger? like it's one thing to say this after a year. or something but literally? 6 games? (and I don't think he played all of the tournament) so correction: 4 games. we're calling drafting this kid a mistake after 4 pro-esque games.

golly.

maybe I did not word or phrase it properly.


Our scouts, our GM have already made a definitive call/ choice / decision on the Marn, Hanif debate

They did indeed draft marn over hanif, of that there is little doubt.

They (scouts,GM) have already made their crystal ball call on the two.

There is no reasonable reason for others not to make their own call.

 

[mcleex]

Didn't impress me and didn't disappoint me either.

I just wish he could play for the Marlies instead of going back to the OHL

 

[Bullseye]

I don't know how anyone can have any doubt that Marner will someday be a skilled impactful probably dominant player in the NHL. He isn't now and that's allowed - he's just a kid. Let him be. Let him grow and show his stuff - he's got it.

My only problem is how quickly and viciously peeps react to any kind of matter-of-fact statements about one of the untouchables. If you makes the same statements about Matt Frattin everyone ignores it and shrugs but say it about Marner and it's "et tu, Brute". My one and only comment on this player til I see him in Feb. here vs. the IceDogs.

 

[TheProspector]

Marner's production verses his 1st year draft eligible peers is impressive, no question.

But, "TheProspector!", what are the top seasons ever by OHL players entering the season <=19yo by points per game?

That list will shrink significantly (from above) because many didn't return to junior for their <=19 year old seasons as their NHL careers began after being drafted. That seems to be biggest control variable that will change the new list at the end of this upcoming year.

London is a powerhouse offensive team with 3 potential players in their lineup that might go top 10 in 2016 draft in addition to returning players like Marner and Dvorak both top OHL scorers last year. So piling up the points is what we should logically expect.

If Marner does put up another 125+ points this current year matching last year in the OHL what has changed statistically as he is only 1 year older then but with the similar stats?.. Would we need to see improvement in his PPG% to measure progress?

Yup. This is also the way I think.

What I'll do to make this a reasonable comparison is show the top seasons of players who started the season 18.4, +/- 0.5 years.

1. Jason Spezza, 2.3ppg
2. Corey Locke, 2.29
3. Sam Bennett, 2.18
4. John Tavares, 2.08
5. Brett MacLean, 1.95
6. Sheldon Keefe, 1.95
7. Peter Sarno, 1.92
8. Bryan Little, 1.88
9. Alex Galchenyuk, 1.85
10. Jason Ward, 1.77
11. Norm Milley, 1.76

Also close to the top:

1. Cody Hodgson, 1.74ppg
2. Josh Ho-Sang, 1.73
3. Corey Perry, 1.71
4. Robby Fabbri, 1.7
5. Michael Dal Colle, 1.66
6. Matt Stajan, 1.65
7. Nail Yakupov, 1.64
8. Bobby Ryan, 1.61
9. Mike Zigomanis, 1.59
10. Tyler Toffoli, 1.59

There is actually very limited precedent for a 4th overall pick with that kind of production to go back to the OHL. So, it's hard to really know what level of scoring would be required of him this year to maintain a development curve steep enough to become a top player. Given his near-historic draft year, I think it's safe to say that he needs to probably be 2.2ppg or higher. Finishing the season with less than that as a 19 year-old doesn't put him in particularly great company.

 

[thewave]

Back to business after my Hockey vacation (much needed).

I stand by Hanifin being the correct choice for us. I think he'll be the better OA player.

I don't understand comparisons of Marner to other top drafts over the years-as you can see Wellwood and Gagne are right there in the mix too.

The vote saying if not for McDavid etc Marner would be 1st... This seems outlandish as most top 2-3 picks are ready to go next season, Marner is not.

Nylander is still our best prospect as I stated long ago. Nylander has better potential (maybe).

Not an impressive showing at camp for Marner... Certainly not a good omen but the kids scrawny so we can just hope he bulks and translates next year.

This concludes my take on Marner for the next 6mths. Show me the goods Mitch.

 

[Faltorvo]

Didn't impress me and didn't disappoint me either.

I just wish he could play for the Marlies instead of going back to the OHL

I fully agree with that

with one caveat

those players like marn should be mandatorily available for the world juniors

 

[hotpaws]

If Marner wasn't so physically immature i'd be very concerned considering his meh camp , as it is we'll just have to wait to see how he develops physically the next year or two before we can make an accurate evaluation on whether we should have taken Hanifin instead .

Also crapping on Hanifin doesn't make Marner's light shine brighter nor does the few earlier idiotic comments about how we had him rated above Eichel and would have taken him 2nd if we were picking in that spot .

 

[Mess]

Yup. This is also the way I think.

What I'll do to make this a reasonable comparison is show the top seasons of players who started the season 18.4, +/- 0.5 years.

1. Jason Spezza, 2.3ppg
2. Corey Locke, 2.29
3. Sam Bennett, 2.18
4. John Tavares, 2.08
5. Brett MacLean, 1.95
6. Sheldon Keefe, 1.95
7. Peter Sarno, 1.92
8. Bryan Little, 1.88
9. Alex Galchenyuk, 1.85
10. Jason Ward, 1.77
11. Norm Milley, 1.76

Also close to the top:

1. Cody Hodgson, 1.74ppg
2. Josh Ho-Sang, 1.73
3. Corey Perry, 1.71
4. Robby Fabbri, 1.7
5. Michael Dal Colle, 1.66
6. Matt Stajan, 1.65
7. Nail Yakupov, 1.64
8. Bobby Ryan, 1.61
9. Mike Zigomanis, 1.59
10. Tyler Toffoli, 1.59

There is actually very limited precedent for a 4th overall pick with that kind of production to go back to the OHL. So, it's hard to really know what level of scoring would be required of him this year to maintain a development curve steep enough to become a top player. Given his near-historic draft year, I think it's safe to say that he needs to probably be 2.2ppg or higher. Finishing the season with less than that as a 19 year-old doesn't put him in particularly great company.

Thanks for the work.

Yup that was my point exactly, that while he was in great company this past year as his PPG numbers in comparison to his peers was impressive by saying he did as well or better than Stamkos, Tavares, Hall or Seguin etc in their draft year which warranted the high draft pick in a strong draft year.

However being sent back the 18-19 year old post draft +1 year crew drops significantly in talent level of those not good enough to make it their 1st year. So next year in comparison Corey Locke, Sheldon Keefe, Peter Sarno, Brett MacLean PPG ect. will have a different value in comparing to the past statistically. Generally now falling into a group of smaller skilled players that tore up the OHL in the past.

The drop off is now significant in talent comparison to the past (rather unimpressive comparison class in general) and I was wondering what kind of performance he would need to show progress. The fact he was sent back to junior already changed the dynamics of the stats comparison and the merit of what is signifies.

Marner almost has to improve on his PPG% from last year to this year in the OHL or the story looks a lot different (on paper) to the past particularly when you factor in the strong team he is going to play on.

 

[meefer]

@Daisy, "golly", hey try to keep it civil in here, would ya ;-)

 

[morph]

Heh yeah. I find it funny that patience was the key word on this board since the talk of rebuild began, but very few seem capable of actually following through. Hunwick, Polak, Marner, Kapanen, Komarov and others have already been thrown under the bus, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a movement turn on Babcock 10 games into the season because "nothing has changed."

Most posters on this board are capable of patience.

The impatient people just tend to be more vocal.

 

[Fogelhund]

Most posters on this board are capable of patience.

The impatient people just tend to be more vocal.

Agreed. I am one of the patient ones, and I doubt many of us wish to continually state our point that we are happy with letting the prospects grow in the minors... all of them, and it doesn't really reflect on their future at all. I can't seem to recall any prospects that were ruined from being overly developed in the minors.

Anyway, let the impatient people continue to complain.

 

[Stephen]

I said I was completely open minded about Marner coming up to the NHL if he surprised and being sent down to the OHL if he wasn't ready, and he's not, so this is completely within the spectrum of what was likely to go down. That said, I don't think you ever want a first round pick to come in and not impress. I get that we're still on a honeymoon period with Shanahan and Dubas and Hunter, but Marner is still a boom prospect with a certain amount of risk, given his physical build, his peak potential vs his likely potential vs his floor. All that said, he has a good role model to follow in Nylander on how to prepare physically and how to carry himself in his second camp.

 

[hotpaws]

Agreed. I am one of the patient ones, and I doubt many of us wish to continually state our point that we are happy with letting the prospects grow in the minors... all of them, and it doesn't really reflect on their future at all. I can't seem to recall any prospects that were ruined from being overly developed in the minors.

Anyway, let the impatient people continue to complain.

we can be as patient as we like , it Still doesn't mean a prospect will pan out

we were patient with Biggs/Ryan/Blacker/Ross among many others and they all busted so playing the patient card every time a prospect under performs means nothing

Marner needs to fill out and get stronger , if he doesn't this pick won't look good in a couple of years .

and no not every 18 year old grows enough to gain the adequate strength to play at a high level in the NHL

 

[Menzinger]

2014 top five pick Michael Dal Colle has been returned to juniors today.

 

[mikebel111*]

2014 top five pick Michael Dal Colle has been returned to juniors today.

Its obvious the Islanders made a huge mistake picking him........

 

[Stephen]

Its obvious the Islanders made a huge mistake picking him........

It's not impossible.

Anyway, criticisms about any pick any time is valid. It's a work in progress and you comment on what's happened to date. Is patience required? Of course. But at the end of the day Marner becomes a great NHL player by taking the necessary steps. It's up to him to proove Hunter and Dubad and Shanahan right.

 

[hotpaws]

2014 top five pick Michael Dal Colle has been returned to juniors today.

this must mean Marner is the 2nd best player in his draft class

 

[WTFMAN99]

Its obvious the Islanders made a huge mistake picking him........

No, just very patient with prospects. Ryan Strome was in Jr the entire time, and after that they still made him play half a season in the AHL before letting him come up to the NHL level.

It isn't a bad thing, it means their prospects come to the NHL when they are ready. 50 Pts for Ryan Strome in his first full NHL season is pretty impressive, also followed it up with 4 points in 7GP in the NHL.

 

[WTFMAN99]

4 pts in 7GP in the NHL *playoffs