Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part III

[BoredBrandonPridham]

So we're paying for expected performance now? I thought that was a no-no.

Pens paid for expected performance with Malkin I’m told. They say you’re only worth a contract like that if you’ve won a cup or Art Ross or Hart etc...

 

[Maplebeasts]

The fact that is being used as some type of attack just makes you come across as silly

It's a tad hypocritical to use that language while also excusing Marner for his playoffs performance this year, blaming JT for everything.

 

[Gabriel426]

Ask yourself. Who would you take Kane or Marner?

The answer is why Marner is not a 10M player.

That depends how much Point, Aho, Laine, and Rantanen are going to sign. If none of them sign anywhere near 10mil, is Marner a 10mil player?

 

[kb]

Its not just me saying it.

Then list all the NHL awards this "one of the best players in the league" has won, along with all the NHL allstar teams he has made?

 

[MyBudJT]

I LOVE HOW PEOPLE TALK WIHTOUT ANY RESEARCH OR INFO TO BACK UP THEIR BULL****.

Ovechkin SIGNING DATE: January 10, 2008 $9,538,462
Ovechkin (2 years prior to signing):
2006-2007 - 46 goals 92 pts - 82 games (0.56 goals per game)
(Matthews - 34 goals 63 pts - 62 games (0.54 goals per game)

2007-2008 - 65 goals 112 pts - 82 games (0.79 goals per game)
(Matthews - 37 goals 73 pts - 68 games (0.54 goals per gmae)

Backstrom SIGNING DATE: May 17, 2010 $6,700,000
Backstrom(2 years prior to signing):
2008-2009 - 22 goals 88pts (Marner 22 goals 69 pts - 82 games)
2009-2010 - 33 pts 101 pts (Marner 26 goals 94 pts - 82 games)

this situation the Leafs have looks pretty similar to what the Caps were facing. Plus Backstrom plays C which is a premier position.

Backstrom got $2,838,462 less!!!!!

SO WHEN I SAY YOU PEOPLE DONT KNOW, they simply dont. there is a president. there is history. Leafs management including Dubas and Shanahan both SPECIFICALLY referred to CROSBY and his cap percentage in the post Auston Matthews press conference scrums in justifying the new contract.

Marner will sign or be moved. Its not really all that complicated.

My bullshit? What did I say wrong...?

You can't look at these stats without context if you'd like. Backstrom had Ovechkin as his linemate in his ELC years. Who did Ovechkin have exactly?

Ovechkin had THREE 100+ point seasons when Backstrom finished his ELC, AND Ovechkin finished ahead of Backstrom in points each Backstrom's seasons. Marner has outproduced Matthews the last two seasons, and could have possibly out produced him in his rookie season had he not had Mono.

Ovechkin proved to be much greater than Backstrom. Matthews hasn't proven to be much greater than Marner.

You seem to like twisting's people's words to fit your narrative though. I'll just keep calling you out on it, because its really cheap and an immature approach to having a debate.

 

[MyBudJT]

Then list all the NHL awards this "one of the best players in the league" has won, along with all the NHL allstar teams he has made?

Matthews outright said it was wrong that he was at the All-star game and that Rielly and Marner shuold have been there. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

 

[kb]

Matthews outright said it was wrong that he was at the All-star game and that Rielly and Marner shuold have been there. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

Link to where Matthews said he shouldn't be there?

The point is, only Leaf fans can overvalue a 20 goal winger who hasn't picked up a trophy or made an all-star team (plus doesn't make his linemates any better) to the degree they have.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I LOVE HOW PEOPLE TALK WIHTOUT ANY RESEARCH OR INFO TO BACK UP THEIR BULL****.

Ovechkin SIGNING DATE: January 10, 2008 $9,538,462
Ovechkin (2 years prior to signing):
2006-2007 - 46 goals 92 pts - 82 games (0.56 goals per game)
(Matthews - 34 goals 63 pts - 62 games (0.54 goals per game)

2007-2008 - 65 goals 112 pts - 82 games (0.79 goals per game)
(Matthews - 37 goals 73 pts - 68 games (0.54 goals per gmae)

Backstrom SIGNING DATE: May 17, 2010 $6,700,000
Backstrom(2 years prior to signing):
2008-2009 - 22 goals 88pts (Marner 22 goals 69 pts - 82 games)
2009-2010 - 33 pts 101 pts (Marner 26 goals 94 pts - 82 games)

this situation the Leafs have looks pretty similar to what the Caps were facing. Plus Backstrom plays C which is a premier position.

Backstrom got $2,838,462 less!!!!!

SO WHEN I SAY YOU PEOPLE DONT KNOW, they simply dont. there is a president. there is history. Leafs management including Dubas and Shanahan both SPECIFICALLY referred to CROSBY and his cap percentage in the post Auston Matthews press conference scrums in justifying the new contract.

Marner will sign or be moved. Its not really all that complicated.

Not sure why they brought up the Crosby contract, maybe to show precedent for shortish term on elite players. But Matthews compares well to Malkin (Matthews scores primary points at a higher rate than Malkin did during his ELC, and slightly less including secondary assists), and Matthews took ~8-9% less than him.

FWIW Matthews scores goals at a higher rate than Ovy did during his ELC and plays a more favourable position.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Thats not the same chart...

The original visual only tracks 20 games into the 2018-2019 season.

Use the new visual I provided, or use the original visual.

 

[MyBudJT]

There aren't really any good comparables for Marner in recent years, Draisatl may be the closest.

Keep in mind that Draisatl played on McDavid's wing for most of his ELC production, too.

U20:
LD: 37GP 2G 9P
MM: 77GP 19G 61P

U21:
LD: 72GP 19G 52P
MM: 82GP 22G 69G

U22:
LD: 82GP 29G 77P
MM: 82GP 26G 94P

If Leon Draisatyl got 8 yrs at 11.33%, Marner should get 8 years at 13.33% at LEAST, no?

That would be approximately 8 x 11M

He's probably also looking at Eichel and saying "Hey, why should I get less than that guy?".

 

[MyBudJT]

Link to where Matthews said he shouldn't be there?

The point is, only Leaf fans can overvalue a 20 goal winger who hasn't picked up a trophy or made an all-star team (plus doesn't make his linemates any better) to the degree they have.

WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH! This is so wrong!

Marner make Kadri a near P/GP player when they were linemates.

Marner brought Tavares to career highs, while T was getting adjusted to a new city/systems, etc.

This is just so wrong.


Anyways, here is the Matthews quote

"In my opinion, having missed the time I did, seeing those three guys, the way they played - Johnny (Tavares), Mitch, and Mo - I think I'd give up my spot for them any day of the week because they've had unbelievable seasons,

Matthews: I'd give up All-Star Game spot for snubbed Leafs Marner, Rielly

 

[Mr Hockey]

Please stay and sign with the Leafs Marner. I plan to buy your jersey on my birthday.

He will be signed and people will cry about it as if they are directly paying him or it may cost us signing a 3rd line forward in a couple of years, etc

 

[81Leafs50]

That depends how much Point, Aho, Laine, and Rantanen are going to sign. If none of them sign anywhere near 10mil, is Marner a 10mil player?

exactly.

 

[kb]

WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH! This is so wrong!

Marner make Kadri a near P/GP player when they were linemates.

Marner brought Tavares to career highs, while T was getting adjusted to a new city/systems, etc.

This is just so wrong.


Anyways, here is the Matthews quote

You mean Tavares brought Marner up 25 points, Marner brought him up 4. 2 more than his career high, and oddly, Tavares is currently in his prime.

Kadri had 6 more points the season before with Connor Brown and Leo Komarov on his wings. Bozak and JVR picked things up after Brown was put on their line in place of Marner. Much better line without Marner.

He's worth 9-9.5 tops. He's no Kucherov.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Not sure why they brought up the Crosby contract, maybe to show precedent for shortish term on elite players. But Matthews compares well to Malkin (Matthews scores primary points at a higher rate than Malkin did during his ELC, and slightly less including secondary assists), and Matthews took ~8-9% less than him.

FWIW Matthews scores goals at a higher rate than Ovy did during his ELC and plays a more favourable position.

Agreed that Malkin contract seems to have been used as the comparable but from what I can see Matthews didnt take 8-9% less than Malkin.

Capfriendly calculates cap% based on the date the contract was signed not the first year the contract starts so it is misleading for both Matthews and Malkin.

For example, Mathews cap% is using the 2018/19 cap ceiling not next years when the contract actually kicks in. Makes the cap% seem higher especially when there is a big increase. there was only like a $100 000 increase for Malkin.

 

[81Leafs50]

My bull****? What did I say wrong...?

You can't look at these stats without context if you'd like. Backstrom had Ovechkin as his linemate in his ELC years. Who did Ovechkin have exactly?

Ovechkin had THREE 100+ point seasons when Backstrom finished his ELC, AND Ovechkin finished ahead of Backstrom in points each Backstrom's seasons. Marner has outproduced Matthews the last two seasons, and could have possibly out produced him in his rookie season had he not had Mono.

Ovechkin proved to be much greater than Backstrom. Matthews hasn't proven to be much greater than Marner.

You seem to like twisting's people's words to fit your narrative though. I'll just keep calling you out on it, because its really cheap and an immature approach to having a debate.

Just like Ovie proved to be better. Matthews has done the same. Marner has no leg to stand on. Whether it be points and goals or it be the precedent used to sign Matthews in terms of contracts for super stars.

I understand the context just fine. Matthews has played with lesser players all along and hes putting up ridiculous stats.

If anyone even thinks that Matthews and Marner are on the same level, let alone think Marner is better, they are flat out wrong and lose any debate they enter. These guys are not on the same level.

 

[MyBudJT]

You mean Tavares brought Marner up 25 points, Marner brought him up 4. 2 more than his career high, and oddly, Tavares is currently in his prime.

Kadri had 6 more points the season before with Connor Brown and Leo Komarov on his wings. Bozak and JVR picked things up after Brown was put on their line in place of Marner. Much better line without Marner.

He's worth 9-9.5 tops. He's no Kucherov.

No, I don't mean that at all.

Marner produced at a 95 point pace with Nazem Kadri the season prior. Marner only continued his success with Tavares.

Marner is worth much more than:
Nylander + 2-2.5M
Matthews - 2.25M

Marner will in all likelihood get more than 10M.

 

[MyBudJT]

Just like Ovie proved to be better. Matthews has done the same. Marner has no leg to stand on. Whether it be points and goals or it be the precedent used to sign Matthews in terms of contracts for super stars.

I understand the context just fine. Matthews has played with lesser players all along and hes putting up ridiculous stats.

If anyone even thinks that Matthews and Marner are on the same level, let alone think Marner is better, they are flat out wrong and lose any debate they enter. These guys are not on the same level.

Matthews has NOT proven to be better than Marner. Marner has outproduced Matthews in the last two seasons.

It was Marner that played with lesser players prior to this past season, so not sure what you're talking about there. And last season, Marner palyed with Tavares, but they also played against other teams top competition. It washes out.

 

[81Leafs50]

No, I don't mean that at all.

Marner produced at a 95 point pace with Nazem Kadri the season prior. Marner only continued his success with Tavares.

Marner is worth much more than:
Nylander + 2-2.5M
Matthews - 2.25M

Marner will in all likelihood get more than 10M.

So let me get this straight....

One guy scores 40 goals his rookie year and the other guy scores 61 pts his rookie year.....

and you think the guy with 61 pts is better than the 40 goal guy?

 

[MyBudJT]

So let me get this straight....

One guy scores 40 goals his rookie year and the other guy scores 61 pts his rookie year.....

and you think the guy with 61 pts is better than the 40 goal guy?

Why are you looking at their Rookie seasons now to prove a point? Rookie seasons don't matter much... what they did last season matters much more.

2018/2019:
MM: 26G 94P
AM: 37G 73P

2017/2018:
MM: 22G 69P
AM: 34G 63P

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Why are you looking at their Rookie seasons now to prove a point? Rookie seasons don't matter much... what they did last season matters much more.

2018/2019:
MM: 26G 94P
AM: 37G 73P

2017/2018:
MM: 22G 69P
AM: 34G 63P

Dude the fact you didn't put the amount of games played in there ... Come'on man. Matthews injury-proneness worries me, but the dude's amazing.

2018-2019:

• AM: 3.47 pts/60
  
• MM: 3.47 pts/60
• JT: 3.37 pts/60

2017-2018:

• AM: 3.36 pts/60
  
• MM: 3.08 pts/60

2016-2017:

• AM: 2.86 pts/60
  
• MM: 2.83 pts/60

 

[MyBudJT]

Dude the fact you didn't put the amount of games played in there ... Come'on man. Matthews injury-proneness worries me, but the dude's amazing.

2018-2019:

• AM: 3.47 pts/60
  
• MM: 3.47 pts/60
• JT: 3.37 pts/60

2017-2018:

• AM: 3.36 pts/60
  
• MM: 3.08 pts/60

2016-2017:

• AM: 2.86 pts/60
  
• MM: 2.83 pts/60

Well, now you're talking about something different...

Of course, Matthews produced more / game, but its a moot point if he can't stay healthy. There is a value in being able to stay healthy.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Well, now you're talking about something different...

Of course, Matthews produced more / game, but its a moot point if he can't stay healthy. There is a value in being able to stay healthy.

It's the same topic. Matthews can produce more than any other Leaf and that's a fact. You shouldn't post the raw stats comparing Marner to Matthews without context.

Missing 30ish games out of 240ish games doesn't decrease Matthews's value. Do I want him healthy and playing 82 games? Of course, no doubt. Does not being an ironman lower his value? Nope.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

So we're paying for expected performance now? I thought that was a no-no.

Well we have already done that with Matthews and Nylander

We paid 7 million for a guy who has two 61 point seasons. We paid a premium for future performance

We paid 11.6 for a guy who hasn’t played a full season and has a career high 73 points. Again we paid for future performance

Now according to you we can’t do that with marner or do you think this is as good as he gets

 

[MyBudJT]

It's the same topic. Matthews can produce more than any other Leaf and that's a fact. You shouldn't post the raw stats comparing Marner to Matthews without context.

Missing 30ish games out of 240ish games doesn't decrease Matthews's value. Do I want him healthy and playing 82 games? Of course, no doubt. Does not being an ironman lower his value? Nope.

I stated that Marner outproduced Matthews each of the last two seasons. I didn't say that he's the more efficient producer.

Give me 82 games of Marner over 70 games of Matthews, any day of the week!