LeafingTheWay
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- May 31, 2014
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I'll take Matthews over Marner.
Haven't you learned anything from Kawhi Leonard for regular season vs playoffs? Load management
Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part III
- Thread starter Frenchy
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I'll take Matthews over Marner.
Haven't you learned anything from Kawhi Leonard for regular season vs playoffs? Load management
I think we’re into semantics at this point but would Malkin’s contract not show a percentage of 2 years before the start date? Depends maybe on when they release the cap numbers and when capfriendly flips the switch to the new season, but my 8-9% is based on cap% the season the contract starts. I’m sure both parties predict the cap goes up etc etc.
If not Matthews made 8-9% less, I may have calculated that Malkin made 8-9% more than Matthews. I put up a table in the previous Marner thread showing production and cap%
So on capfriendly it says "cap hit percentage of the cap ceiling when the contract was signed"
I've done the math on it so what happened with Matthews for example is they used this year 2018/19 because he signed after this seasons UFA period started. So 11.64/79.5 = 14.63% while in fact a more realistic number would include the cap ceiling next year because a prediction of the increase would have been incorporated into the contract.
So for guys like Patrick Kane it is even worse. He signed his first post ELC in December 2009, so the 2008/09 season. The contract doesnt kick in until the 2010/11 season so when you look at the cap% they used the cap ceiling in 2008/2009 (56.7 million) to calculate Kane's cap hit % (6.3 / 56.7 =~ 11.11%) when the cap hit % of the first year of the contract 2010/11 was actually 10.6% due to a 59.4 million dollar ceiling.
Edit: for guys signed after UFA opens in the summer (like JT) they use the upcoming seasons cap hit ceiling.
Yea, I know how capfriendly calculates the %’s. What I’m saying is that I think I used the year the contract kicks in to calculate the difference in %-value between Matthews and Malkin.
Thanks. I guess cap figures for a season are set in stone by July 1, which makes sense and CF rolls over the year well before that.
*sigh*
Matthews - 212 GP 111 G 94 A 205 PTS
Marner - 241 GP 67 G 157 A 224 PTS
Marner 29 more games played with 44 less goals.
2018-2019 season:
Matthews 12 PP goals
Marner 3 PP goals
Goals/60
Matthews 1.759 (Ovi 1.806)
Marner 0.960
ESG/60
Matthews 1.382 (Ovi 1.481)
Marner 1.014
This is all you need to know.
so you think a guy who has scored 19, 22 and 26 goals is better than the player who score 40, 34, and 37 goals in less games played???
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Tavares has been a line driver every year hes been in the NHL since he was drafted. Hes also easily a top 10 centre in the league.
The suggestion that he isnt the most important player on his line or is not even a line driver on the Leafs is laughable.
BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Why do goals only count though? Particularly because Marner is known as a playmaker while Matthews is more of a goal scorer...
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
I'm a huge supporter of the importance of playmakers but theres no denying the rarity of goal scoring centres in today's NHL. And with tha comes a price premium
BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Matthews cap hit % if you used the year it kicked in and say a 83 million dollar ceiling would be around 14.02% while Malkin with the cap ceiling at 56.8 million in the 2009/10 season (when his contract kicked it) had a cap% of 15.31%.
All I'm saying is there was no way to calculate as much as an 8% difference.
You get paid a premium for goals, just like which position you play
So they count a lot and if your a goalscorer scoring franchise level #1C its going to rain come contract time, not so great if your a playmaking winger though no matter how good you are (and Marner is ******* good)
because GM's for goals. If you are a facilitator of goals then you get a piece of the pie too as playmakers are necessary. But if you cant score then you will never make super star money.
Ah I see where the confusion is now. I don’t mean 8% less than the entire cap, I mean 8% less relative to their salaries. Like 2 is 33% less than 3. 14.02 is 8.4% less than 15.31. I think for cap%’s it kind of better reflects the difference given all somewhat good players tend to sign between 8-16% of the cap, so a seemingly small scalar differential of 1% of cap is a non trivial bump in 8-9% of pay.
Okay now I see what your saying, fair enough. I was confused as we were already talking about percentages in reference to the cap ceiling. Your talking about a perfect difference.
Probably something to do with the merger of Ferris with that other firm, but was reported not to affect anything with Marner. Click bait I suspect, though I never actually clicked.
MyBudJT
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- Mar 5, 2018
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Why are you looking at 3yr averages?
You show Matthews scoring more PP goals, doesn’t that mean Marner scored more EV goals?
MyBudJT
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Exactly, French media going full click bait. “Superstar has Quebec management........ because his managers company has merged with a Quebec one”
Myopic
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I agree with JR. I would NOT pay Marner more than 9.5M/YR. He's not a center and he's not a goal scoring winger. It would be insane to pay a play-making winger the same as the Leafs franchise centers.
I agree although, nylander is maybe $500k overpaid so by that marner could get $10m exactly it wouldn’t be a good deal but palatable at least. Anywhere near matthews and it’s an overpay for a winger
nuck
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Two assists per goal and you can score a goal unassisted, but there are no ungoaled assists, those would just be "good plays" that never amounted to anything. There are always a whole bunch of highlight reel playmakers that do all the work and the shooter reaps the easy score but with the majority of goals it is always going to be the shooter that beats the goalie so a primary assist is still less valuable than a goal. Only the 4 goals put in the net count towards a win, not the 8 assists.
I can't see how you could measure exactly how much more valuable a goal is because except for breakaways there is a lot of moving parts in any possession leading up to a score and more than one smart play is usually required every night to make a 180pt tandem. I would say 45-55 is definitely more valuable than 25-75 as a 55 assist play maker is still top 20 in the league but a 25g scorer isn't in the top 70. As a defender you want to make Mitch shoot, you don't want it to be JT right? Once Marner gets a bit more comfortable he won't throw it back to Tavares on all the iffy chances and his goals and Tavares assists will increase.
And all things being equal a winger is always less valuable than a center and the best UFAs available are always the wingers. Kucherov's last deal didn't happen in a vacuum, one of the reasons he took $9.5 was because he was a winger, and he is a much better shooter than Mitch. I am not anti-Marner, I am just anti RFAs demanding UFA money and pushing that ppg matters more than the position and the goals you actually score. I want Mitch to become the Adam Oates of wingers but elevating Tavares from 84 to 88 pts doesn't prove he is there, just that they bought him an $11M center that meshes perfectly with him. A year from now I could well be eating these words but being paid more than the scoring champion should be enough shouldn't it? If he thinks he's Gretzky 2.0 then lets do the short bridge and see it happen.
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