Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part III

[MyBudJT]

Mtthews has more even strength everything.

They each only have 3 years worth of stats to work off of in the NHL. 3 year average is all there is.

So you're looking at three year stats because why exactly? Because it better fits your narrative? What does three year stats tell you that is important in this conversation/debate?

Let me direct you to a post I made in the Nylander thread.

I agree.

I don't get this 3 year average stats that people keep posting around here. You don't see anyone using it for Marner comparisons. Or Matthews comparisons.

Lets compare a hypothetical scenerio where 3 players all scored 180 points in 3 full ELC seasons, how can you suggest that these players should get similar salaries:

Player A:
Year 1: 20 Points
Year 2: 50 Points
Year 3: 110 Points

Player B:
Year 1: 60 Points
Year 2: 60 Points
Year 3: 60 Points

Player C:
Year 1: 80 Points
Year 2: 60 Points
Year 3: 40 Points

How can anyone suggest that these players are deserving the same dollar value based on their ELC prodcution??

I would think that Player A >> Player B > Player C

Really, it's too LARGE a sample size, when comparing young players that are (or should) constantly develop. What either of them did three years ago doesn't matter.

 

[kb]

Its the Matthews overpayment and term that is effecting Marner's contract more than Nylander is.

Matthews' is not a comparable. A year younger, better, and plays a premium position.

D+1

Marner: Not good enough for the NHL
Matthews 40 goals, 69 points, Calder Trophy

D+2

Marner: 77 Games, 19 goals, 61 points
Matthews: 62 Games, 34 goals, 63 Points

D+3

Marner: 82 Games, 22 goals, 69 points
Matthews: 68 Games, 37 goals, 73 points

If some people can use that criteria for the Nylander argument, they should be consistent in the application. According to this, Marner is nowhere near Matthews.

 

[Mess]

im not sure Matthews is overpaid in terms of actual money, only the term makes it look bad. Marner should be laughed out of the office asking for Matthews contract

The problem is the rate $$ and the term are directly connected and you can't look at only 1/2 the equation without the other to draw that conclusion.

McDavid and Eichel each surrendered 4 X UFA years on 8 year terms to get their $12.5 and $10 mil rates averaged out over 8 years.

Eichel's contract (Matthews closest comparable) would essentially be something like this $8 mil + $8 mil + $9 mil + $9 mil (4 X RFA years) & $10 mil +$11 mil + $12 mil + $13 mil (4 X UFA years)

Which = $ 80 mil total over 8 years = $10 mil AAV over the full term. Its the last 3 UFA years that drive up the RFA years on average .. If it was only 5 years it would be $44 mil /5 = $8.8 mil AAV.

I agree with you IF Matthews deal was $11.634 X 8 years instead of just 5 the contract would align between the two comparables above.

If you follow this same structure for AM (+cap increase) = $9 mil + $9 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil (4 X RFA years) + $20.17 mil (1 X UFA years) = $58.17/5 = $11.634 mil AAV. Leafs bought only a single UFA year for about $20 mil in order for Auston to get his actual money and the average to be $11.634 mil.

Now Marner as the teams leading scorer wants the Matthews structure on 5-6 years as the precedence just set that is why the $$ is being reported at $10-$11 mil for limited term.

If Marner signs for 5 years and gets ~ $11 mil AAV that makes his contract something like $9 mil +$9 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil + $17 mil (UFA year) = $55 mil / 5 = $11 AAV or $52.5 mil /5 = $10.5 mil AAV (with the UFA costing $14.5 mil)..

 

[MyBudJT]

Matthews' is not a comparable. A year younger, better, and plays a premium position.

D+1

Marner: Not good enough for the NHL
Matthews 40 goals, 69 points, Calder Trophy

D+2

Marner: 77 Games, 19 goals, 61 points
Matthews: 62 Games, 34 goals, 63 Points

D+3

Marner: 82 Games, 22 goals, 69 points
Matthews: 68 Games, 37 goals, 73 points

If some people can use that criteria for the Nylander argument, they should be consistent in the application. According to this, Marner is nowhere near Matthews.

Matthews is not a year younger than Marner. Not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

So you're looking at three year stats because why exactly? Because it better fits your narrative? What does three year stats tell you that is important in this conversation/debate?

Let me direct you to a post I made in the Nylander thread.



Really, it's too LARGE a sample size, when comparing young players that are (or should) constantly develop. What either of them did three years ago doesn't matter.

Yeah, let’s forget the last 3 years and consider the year where one played with Tavares and the other played with Marleau and Kapanen

 

[MyBudJT]

Yeah, let’s forget the last 3 years and consider the year where one played with Tavares and the other played with Marleau and Kapanen

Okay, are you going to bring up an actual logical reason as to why 3 year averages hold any weight for a 22 year old? I mean, a 22 year old should be much improved over their 19 year old self, no?

 

[Walshy7]

Matthews is not a year younger than Marner. Not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.

he is in terms of drafting. hence Matthews being drafted you know 1 year later? otherwise you are implying Matthews was overlooked in the 2015 draft

 

[MyBudJT]

he is in terms of drafting. hence Matthews being drafted you know 1 year later? otherwise you are implying Matthews was overlooked in the 2015 draft

He isn't in terms of development... which really is the only thing that matters here.

 

[kb]

Matthews is not a year younger than Marner. Not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.

Well, I can safely say you would be the lone person on this board not to get it.

It's all spelled out for you in the rest of the post. Compare their production for the first 3 years post draft.

 

[MyBudJT]

Well, I can safely say you would be the lone person on this board not to get it.

It's all spelled out for you in the rest of the post. Compare their production for the first 3 years post draft.

Three year averages make no sense, especially for players in their ELC.

Let me direct you to another post I've made:

I agree.

I don't get this 3 year average stats that people keep posting around here. You don't see anyone using it for Marner comparisons. Or Matthews comparisons.

Lets compare a hypothetical scenerio where 3 players all scored 180 points in 3 full ELC seasons, how can you suggest that these players should get similar salaries:

Player A:
Year 1: 20 Points
Year 2: 50 Points
Year 3: 110 Points

Player B:
Year 1: 60 Points
Year 2: 60 Points
Year 3: 60 Points

Player C:
Year 1: 80 Points
Year 2: 60 Points
Year 3: 40 Points

How can anyone suggest that these players are deserving the same dollar value based on their ELC prodcution??

I would think that Player A >> Player B > Player C

Really, it's too LARGE a sample size, when comparing young players that are (or should) constantly develop. What either of them did three years ago doesn't matter.

 

[kb]

He isn't in terms of development... which really is the only thing that matters here.

But he is. Rules don't change because you want them to.

While Marner wasn't good enough to stick in the NHL in his D+1, Matthews was scoring 40 goals and pulling in the Calder. Fact.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Okay, are you going to bring up an actual logical reason as to why 3 year averages hold any weight for a 22 year old? I mean, a 22 year old should be much improved over their 19 year old self, no?

Yes and they both improved significantly. I am a big fan of both, and was excited to see the growth in their games. However, I don’t think we should be ignoring their linemates.

 

[MyBudJT]

But he is. Rules don't change because you want them to.

While Marner wasn't good enough to stick in the NHL in his D+1, Matthews was scoring 40 goals and pulling in the Calder. Fact.

There is no rule changing here on my part. When comparing prospects and young players, you compare them at the same age. Not based on draft year.

Draft year DOESN'T matter, because they're the same freaking age! They came to the NHL at the SAME AGE!

Do you get it yet?

 

[MyBudJT]

Yes and they both improved significantly. I am a big fan of both, and was excited to see the growth in their games. However, I don’t think we should be ignoring their linemates.

Thats fair. I agree. But I'd also say you shouldn't ignore quality of competition. Tavares and Marner were facing other team's top lines and toughest competition. So, if you're asking me, I'd say it washes out.

 

[kb]

Three year averages make no sense, especially for players in their ELC.

Let me direct you to another post I've made:



Really, it's too LARGE a sample size, when comparing young players that are (or should) constantly develop. What either of them did three years ago doesn't matter.

Let's just look at D+2 or D+3. Pick either, or both. That is draft age production. Marner is still older by one draft year, and playing with an allstar. Matthews plays with garbage cans. And still gets them each 20 goals.

 

[MyBudJT]

Let's just look at D+2 or D+3. Pick either, or both. That is draft age production. Marner is still older by one draft year, and playing with an allstar. Matthews plays with garbage cans. And still gets them each 20 goals.

LOL, you're being silly man.

Why are you comparing Matthews' U21 and U22 production to Marner's U20 and U21 production?

 

[hotpaws]

Yes and they both improved significantly. I am a big fan of both, and was excited to see the growth in their games. However, I don’t think we should be ignoring their linemates.

MM paced at a 90 pt pace the last half of the previous season which was just his 2nd in the league so i wouldn't put his improved production on playing with JT .

MM also came into the league with a history of producing at a high rate and he was the one driving the play the majority of the time on his line this year so while all players benefit with playing with skilled players i believe they both benefited by playing together .

 

[kb]

There is no rule changing here on my part. When comparing prospects and young players, you compare them at the same age. Not based on draft year.

Draft year DOESN'T matter, because they're the same freaking age! They came to the NHL at the SAME AGE!

Do you get it yet?

You don't get it. Marner was drafted ONE YEAR BEFORE Matthews. And couldn't make the NHL.
They weren't drafted the same year. Sorry if you don't understand the simplest concepts.

Which is, Marner is older. Matthews was winning the Calder in his D+1. Marner was still in junior.

Do you get it now??

 

[kb]

LOL, you're being silly man.

Why are you comparing Matthews' U21 and U22 production to Marner's U20 and U21 production?

I'm not. You just are clueless as to how ages work.

 

[Legion34]

Marner helps our team win in just as many ways as Matthews.

And field goal kickers score as many points as some quarterbacks.

The market is the market. Centres get more. Goal scorers get more.

Things that are valuable don’t necessarily translate into money

 

[ACC1224]

You don't get it. Marner was drafted ONE YEAR BEFORE Matthews. And couldn't make the NHL.
They weren't drafted the same year. Sorry if you don't understand the simplest concepts.

Which is, Marner is older. Matthews was winning the Calder in his D+1. Marner was still in junior.

Do you get it now??

Going to regret this but the bolded isn't true.
They were tanking for Matthews that year.

 

[Legion34]

He isn't in terms of development... which really is the only thing that matters here.

Ummmm ya I would say that skating on plastic ice til you were 15 compared to being in the best development leagues in the world would probably be different developments

 

[kb]

Going to regret this but the bolded isn't true.
They were tanking for Matthews that year.

Same reason Nylander wasn't playing all year either.

 

[CDN24]

he is in terms of drafting. hence Matthews being drafted you know 1 year later? otherwise you are implying Matthews was overlooked in the 2015 draft

He wasn't overloo0ked but if he was born a week earlier he would have been in the same draft class as Marner and probably drafted by the Coyotes at 3rd oA. Marner is about 4 months older than AM34

 

[Stephen]

Matthews' is not a comparable. A year younger, better, and plays a premium position.

D+1

Marner: Not good enough for the NHL
Matthews 40 goals, 69 points, Calder Trophy

D+2

Marner: 77 Games, 19 goals, 61 points
Matthews: 62 Games, 34 goals, 63 Points

D+3

Marner: 82 Games, 22 goals, 69 points
Matthews: 68 Games, 37 goals, 73 points

If some people can use that criteria for the Nylander argument, they should be consistent in the application. According to this, Marner is nowhere near Matthews.

I agree with what you’re saying in principle but Matthews is actually only 4 months younger.