Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[WTFMAN99]

You're cherry picking big time by assessing "ELC production" rather than actual production.

U19:
Pastrnak: 46GP 10G 27P
Nylander: Not good enough for the NHL

U20:
Pastrnak: 51GP 15G 26P 0.50 pt/game
Nylander: 22GP 6G 13P 0.59 pt/game

U21:
Pastrnak: 75GP 34G 70P
Nylander: 81GP 22G 61P with significantly less PP Time

U22:
Pastrnak: 82GP 35G 80P
Nylander: 82GP 20G 61P

In no logical way can you compare Pastrnak to Nylander. Its silly. Pastrnak has been, is, and will always be the better player. Horrible comparables.

False

Leafs chose to hold him back which delayed his arrival to the NHL, which delayed his next contract, Leafs also failed to negotiate an extension prior to it expiring. That lead to Nylander negotiating a contract against a higher salary cap then what Pastrnak negotiated against which of course results in a higher cap hit.

Leafs basically botched it by not negotiating sooner to get a more favourable cap hit like the Jets did with Ehlers. The Leafs waited until his deal expired and didn't handle the negotiations well.

U22 season, Pastrnak was already under contract, if he wasn't, he'd have been closer to 7.5-8M per season, so Pastrnak only has himself to blame.

You're literally the only person I have spoke with that doesn't understand how this all happened and are disputing David Pastrnak as a comparable for Nylander.

 

[The CyNick]

False

Leafs chose to hold him back which delayed his arrival to the NHL, which delayed his next contract, Leafs also failed to negotiate an extension prior to it expiring. That lead to Nylander negotiating a contract against a higher salary cap then what Pastrnak negotiated against which of course results in a higher cap hit.

Leafs basically botched it by not negotiating sooner to get a more favourable cap hit like the Jets did with Ehlers. The Leafs waited until his deal expired and didn't handle the negotiations well.

U22 season, Pastrnak was already under contract, if he wasn't, he'd have been closer to 7.5-8M per season, so Pastrnak only has himself to blame.

You're literally the only person I have spoke with that doesn't understand how this all happened and are disputing David Pastrnak as a comparable for Nylander.

So the Leafs held back a player that could have produced in the NHL? I'm sure that makes sense in your mind.

 

[DarkKnight]

Speaking of transparency, folks who have been whining about the Leafs cap situation the loudest all of a sudden seem to be fine with the team writing a blank cheque to sign the guy no matter what the cost.

Point to one post where I said that, or shut it.

 

[DarkKnight]

Tavares did not "destroy" his 5v5 production. in 2014/15, he was 5th in 5v5 points and 3rd in 5v5 primary points with Okposo and Bailey as his most common linemates. This year Tavares was 4th in 5v5 points and 3rd in 5v5 primary points. Scoring is way up, so his totals look better than they actually are

Meanwhile, Marner went from 65th and 75th to 7th and 1st. Now that's a massive improvement courtesy of a guy who's elevated his wingers for his whole career. It's definitely a mutually beneficial relationship, but I think Marner benefits more than people will admit

Ya, a whopping 12 more even strength goals on a ten year career isn't eye popping, a full 14 more even strength points. He was also only had 2 seasons with less PP production, a further testament to his even strength prowess with Marner. But, you conveniently don't cite this with your rather feeble retort. Ciao.

 

[Martin Skoula]

So the Leafs held back a player that could have produced in the NHL? I'm sure that makes sense in your mind.

What exactly is the benefit of playing a young player with a bunch of no-name 4th liners in low minutes on a bad team under a coach focused on winning and not his development? Compared to playing top minutes on a top AHL team and getting playoff experience with a dedicated coaching staff focused on developing him as a player.

 

[Sypher04]

You can do more with 12mill in Canada than 9.5 mill in the US. I know. its my job.

How do you not understand yet that was never the argument I was making?

 

[Nooodles]

What an amazing way to say f*** you Dreger you dont know shit!

I love Dubas

 

[Menzinger]

So the Leafs held back a player that could have produced in the NHL? I'm sure that makes sense in your mind.

It was clear as day to even a casual observer that thee Leafs were keeping the best Marlies players away from the big club as long as possible to insure the tank job for Matthew's in 2016

Edit: typo

 

[Menzinger]

I'm not going to throw out suggestions on how its done. I don't know. I asked you for a source since you seem so adamant on it, but you can't seem to do that, eh?

I would think an NHL GM would put more weight in the most recent season (year 3 of an ELC) than they would in year 1. Seems logical, doesn't it?




Hey! We agree with something! I never suggested otherwise! What doesn't make sense is using 3 year averages, especially when analyzing different age classes.

Compare a U22 player to a U22 player
Compare a U21 player to a U21 player.
etc, etc

If you Google "how are NHL contracts determined" you're brought to an variety of articles, almost all of them refernece prodution as being a main determinant. If you look at he league rules for RFA arbitration, younger production and other stats play a major role https://www.lawinsport.com/blog/rya...ation-works-in-the-national-hockey-league-nhl

The fact remains, if a player has multiple higher scoring seasons (Nylander) they have a better case than somebody with only one season of high scoring (Pasta, Elhers). I don't know why this seems so controversial to you.

 

[Fogelhund]

Sometimes data can be mislead you. Especially when you are working with small sample sizes. I watched virtually every game this past year, and I can confirm Tavares scored a boat load of empty net goals of sick plays by marner.

They obviously help each other, but I don't think you can plug anyone into marners spot and maintain the success of the line.

Marner also contributes in other areas like the PK.

It's comforting to see that you disagree with me. It's kind of like that contrarian indicator, that helps you know you are right.

 

[TheShape]

What an amazing way to say **** you Dreger you dont know ****!

I love Dubas

I LOVE this

 

[MyBudJT]

If you Google "how are NHL contracts determined" you're brought to an variety of articles, almost all of them refernece prodution as being a main determinant. If you look at he league rules for RFA arbitration, younger production and other stats play a major role https://www.lawinsport.com/blog/rya...ation-works-in-the-national-hockey-league-nhl

The fact remains, if a player has multiple higher scoring seasons (Nylander) they have a better case than somebody with only one season of high scoring (Pasta, Elhers). I don't know why this seems so controversial to you.

ELC players aren't arbitration elligible, and typically have less NHL years under their belt than players that go to arbitration.

Since when is 60 points considered a "higher" scoring season. Regardless... Pastrnak is a horrible comparable.

If you're asking me to chose between a guy that has two 20G 60P seasons, and a guy that has one 36G 75P season, I know who I chose... quite easily.

 

[diceman934]

This is an excellent argument for why Marner may be/become a better player than Tavares. It is not, however, an excellent argument for determining who saw the most benefit from Tavares and Marner playing together.

48 goal. No need to say more he never came close to 50 before. He is our best player now period.

 

[Cor]

I love how Dubas took a shot at Dreger

 

[IBeL34f]

48 goal. No need to say more he never came close to 50 before. He is our best player now period.

There's plenty more can be said there.

I'll stick with this, though - Matthews is better, but Marner's a solid #2.

 

[The CyNick]

What exactly is the benefit of playing a young player with a bunch of no-name 4th liners in low minutes on a bad team under a coach focused on winning and not his development? Compared to playing top minutes on a top AHL team and getting playoff experience with a dedicated coaching staff focused on developing him as a player.

Seemed to work for Pasta.

 

[Menzinger]

ELC players aren't arbitration elligible, and typically have less NHL years under their belt than players that go to arbitration.

Since when is 60 points considered a "higher" scoring season. Regardless... Pastrnak is a horrible comparable.

If you're asking me to chose between a guy that has two 20G 60P seasons, and a guy that has one 36G 75P season, I know who I chose... quite easily.

60 points is first line level production....

Again, YOU may choose that player who had the single scoring season, but a negotiation in involves two parties each with their own sets of evidence.

 

[The CyNick]

It was clear as day to even a casual observer that thee Leafs were keeping the best Marlies players away from the big club as long as possible to insure the tank job for Matthew's in 2016

Edit: typo

Do you think nylander was going to dummy the league right away? Another poster says he would struggle on the 4th line. Maybe you guys should get together and align on narratives.

 

[The CyNick]

It's comforting to see that you disagree with me. It's kind of like that contrarian indicator, that helps you know you are right.

I don't disagree with you. I just think you're taking a hardline position with very little to go by. You probably read some flawed stat and now you're gonna run with it. Meanwhile if you just pull up tape of every JT goal this year, you'll see a ton of goals that were the direct result of marner making it easy for him.

Now the flip side to that is JT attracts attention, so that gives marner more space, but I don't think there's any sane person who actually watched games that thinks JT carried Marner all season. You do however.

But hey, if trying to hurl insults at me helps you fill up space in a post vs backing up your wild claims, all the more power to you. I guess we're just different like that.

 

[The CyNick]

What an amazing way to say **** you Dreger you dont know ****!

I love Dubas

Really strange eyeglass riding going on there.

How does this refute Dregger's report, which was simply the longer this goes the more likely Marner's camp is threatening to make the rounds during the negotiation period.

If you were in charge of maximizing Marner's contact, wouldn't you do the same? And if you're the young GM would you really come out and go "even though I promised to get this deal done by July, I'm failing again"?

 

[diceman934]

Nylander got 200-300K more than he should have, but that the end of the day no one at MLSE is sweating 300K on the cap. Nylander signed a decent deal. 6 x 6.5 is what the Leafs wanted originally.



Matthews is getting paid #1 C, franchise player money. 40 goals in his rookie season. A season where Marner had 61pts.

Marner is not a franchise player. His stats were identical to Nylander for 2 seasons until the 40 goal guy showed up and padded Marners stats.

If Marner was a true super star then we would have seen more than a 4 goal increase based on his previous season. Going from 22 goals to 26 goals is not superstar level. Marners production is just the Tavares affect.

Anders Lee in NY scored 40 with Tavares and 28 this season without him.

Leafs have allocated their money properly. They have paid the top 2 C's and Nylander appropriately.

IF Marner wants franchise money then he should go somewhere where he can be a franchise player.

Like it or not Marner is our franchise player. Sadly it is people like you who have no idea of what they are watching. JT was a big time hog I’m the playoffs and hurt us a lot with his one man attempt at offence.

Marner never had the same stats as Nylander. Comparing year for year it is a clear advantage for Marner before last year. If they were the same age you could compare them if they had the same usage. They are not the same age and usage has been no where near the same since 2017-2018 season. One played at a 90 point pace the last 40 which included the playoffs the no where near him.

JT just scored 48 goals far more then he ever has and that is with less pp time and total minutes. His points per 60 was way up. As was his Goals per 60. That did not happen by mistake it was him playing with a player who is better then him who carried his line offensively as JT became the scorer on the line and not the player who created offensive for his line that was all Marner.,

 

[diceman934]

What an amazing way to say **** you Dreger you dont know ****!

I love Dubas

Dubas needs to shut his pie hole. What a stupid thing to say. Why is he insinuating that Marners camp is talking with the media. It serves no purpose other then to piss off Marners camp. Can he learn to stop giving stupid sound bites.

 

[Menzinger]

Dubas needs to shut his pie hole. What a stupid thing to say. Why is he insinuating that Marners camp is talking with the media. It serves no purpose other then to piss off Marners camp. Can he learn to stop giving stupid sound bites.

Letting folks know they're just getting one side of the story...

Marner is vulnerable to bad PR - Dubas positioning himself well here against any future leaks by the agent. Smart move.

 

[Menzinger]

Really strange eyeglass riding going on there.

How does this refute Dregger's report, which was simply the longer this goes the more likely Marner's camp is threatening to make the rounds during the negotiation period.

If you were in charge of maximizing Marner's contact, wouldn't you do the same? And if you're the young GM would you really come out and go "even though I promised to get this deal done by July, I'm failing again"?

You think a guy like Marner is ready for the public onslaught related to him looking at an offersheet? I'm not.

The most uncomfortable I've ever seen Marner was him trying to dodge questions from the press in the locker room after his agent gave that stupid radio interview a few months ago

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Dubas needs to shut his pie hole. What a stupid thing to say. Why is he insinuating that Marners camp is talking with the media. It serves no purpose other then to piss off Marners camp. Can he learn to stop giving stupid sound bites.

Maybe Marner's camp shouldn't negotiate in a totally unprofessional manner then