Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[WTFMAN99]

Why are you comparing Pastrnak's U19 and U20 seasons to Nylander's U21 and U22 seasons?

Because it is inconvenient for your argument?

Because that is when their contracts came up. Try to keep up.

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander's market value was more than $6m for sure. His cap hit is $6.9. So, at most he could be overpaid by $750k, but that's almost certainly too much. I think $6.6m would have been a really good deal. So, ya, about $300k over. Maybe.

Nylander's cap hit is 6.9 in years 2-6. I believe it was 10ish this year and it did not leave us any cap space to acquire a player or two on trade deadline day. It was money in and money out on TDL and as such Dubas' only trade chip was Brown.

 

[kb]

Speaking of transparency, folks who have been whining about the Leafs cap situation the loudest all of a sudden seem to be fine with the team writing a blank cheque to sign the guy no matter what the cost.

So truthful......and hilarious

 

[4thline]

Nylander's cap hit is 6.9 in years 2-6. I believe it was 10ish this year and it did not leave us any cap space to acquire a player or two on trade deadline day. It was money in and money out on TDL and as such Dubas' only trade chip was Brown.

Nylander's cap hit is 6.96 in all 6 years of the deal, but since he had a shortened season the daily accrual of that 6.96 was bumped up to that of a ~10 million dollar player.

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander's cap hit is 6.96 in all 6 years of the deal, but since he had a shortened season the daily accrual of that 6.96 was bumped up to that of a ~10 million dollar player.

And Dubas had little wiggle room on trade deadline day and thus could not add anything significant.

 

[4thline]

And Dubas had little wiggle room on trade deadline day and thus could not add anything significant.

But that wasn't due to a misrepresented mirage of Nylander's cap weighting, it was due to icing a roster that used up our available budget.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

And Dubas had little wiggle room on trade deadline day and thus could not add anything significant.

I'm guessing it was the lack of 1st round pick due to the Muzzin trade that stopped Dubas acquiring anyone further on deadline day.

 

[MyBudJT]

Because that is when their contracts came up. Try to keep up.

Its makes no sense. None. Zilch. Nada.

What an accomplishment for Nylander to produce more in his U21 and U22 seasons than Pastrnak produced in his U19 and U20 seasons.

 

[ToneDog]

Personally I want Dubas to sign Marner to a club friendly (Kutcherov deal) number but that ship may have sailed. Said it months ago and will say it now, if Marner is not reasonable you have to explore moving him or you have to move Nylander. The big three should have known that one of them might be a cap casualty if they did not leave something on the table. So far Nylander and Matthews have not and Marner is following suit.

 

[MyBudJT]

I'm guessing it was the lack of 1st round pick due to the Muzzin trade that stopped Dubas acquiring anyone further on deadline day.

We had no cap space for it.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm guessing it was the lack of 1st round pick due to the Muzzin trade that stopped Dubas acquiring anyone further on deadline day.

No my understanding is that he did not have much cap space to accommodate a Simmonds or Ferland. Hence why he needed to move Brown in any deal and Brown did not move the needle.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Its makes no sense. None. Zilch. Nada.

What an accomplishment for Nylander to produce more in his U21 and U22 seasons than Pastrnak produced in his U19 and U20 seasons.

Not my fault you can't comprehend how contracts work. Contracts conclude and you negotiate. Nylander was well within his right to use Pastrnak as a comparable. Leafs likely used Ehlers, Dubas blinked.

 

[MyBudJT]

Not my fault you can't comprehend how contracts work. Contracts conclude and you negotiate. Nylander was well within his right to use Pastrnak as a comparable. Leafs likely used Ehlers, Dubas blinked.

I'm saying that you cannot compare Pastrnak to Nylander because they're horrible comparables. Keep up.

Its foolish to compare Pastrnak's U19 and U20 seaons to Nylander's U21 and U22 seasons and say "Look! See!!! Nylander is just as good as Pastrnak and deserves the same contract!!!".

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm saying that you cannot compare Pastrnak to Nylander because they're horrible comparables. Keep up.

Its foolish to compare Pastrnak's U19 and U20 seaons to Nylander's U21 and U22 seasons and say "Look! See!!! Nylander is just as good as Pastrnak and deserves the same contract!!!".

Someone else with more patience then me might be able to break it down more simply for you.

 

[MyBudJT]

Someone else with more patience then me might be able to break it down more simply for you.

Its a pretty simple concept man.

Nylander was OLDER than Pastrnak for two of his three ELC years.

U20 Pastrnak > U20 Nylander
U20 Pastrnak > U21 Nylander
U20 Pastrnak > U22 Nylander
U20 Pastrnak > U23 Nylander

U21 Pastrnak > U20 Pastrnak
U22 Pastrnak > U21 Pastrnak
U23 Pastrnak > U22 Pastrnak

In NO WAY are Pastrnak and Nylander good comparables.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Its a pretty simple concept man.

Nylander was OLDER than Pastrnak for two of his three ELC years.

U20 Pastrnak > U20 Nylander
U20 Pastrnak > U21 Nylander
U20 Pastrnak > U22 Nylander
U20 Pastrnak > U23 Nylander

U21 Pastrnak > U20 Pastrnak
U22 Pastrnak > U21 Pastrnak
U23 Pastrnak > U22 Pastrnak

In NO WAY are Pastrnak and Nylander good comparables.

And then he caught up in age? they were in the same draft.

 

[MyBudJT]

And then he caught up in age? they were in the same draft.

Yes, but you cannot compare their ELC production because Nylander was two years older.

This is why they are bad comparables.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm saying that you cannot compare Pastrnak to Nylander because they're horrible comparables. Keep up.

Its foolish to compare Pastrnak's U19 and U20 seaons to Nylander's U21 and U22 seasons and say "Look! See!!! Nylander is just as good as Pastrnak and deserves the same contract!!!".

Regardless on how you feel, ELC production is the only metric GMs can use to determine the first RFA contract, and Nylander had the better ppg, and better p/60, and had more higher scoring seasons. You cant dismiss that because each player entered the NHL at a different age. It was the Leafs choice to keep Nylander in the AHL an extra season.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yes, but you cannot compare their ELC production because Nylander was two years older.

This is why they are bad comparables.

14-15 Pasta produced 20ish pts in the NHL/Dominates the AHL and Nylander dominates the AHL/SHL
15/16 - Pasta puts up approx .5 pts/game in the NHL and Nylander dominates the AHL, receives a late call up and posts around .5 pts/game in a limited sample size
16/17 - Nylander puts up 61 pts in 81GP and Pasta puts up 70 pts in 75GP

That is their 3 years.

Pastrnak signs Sept 15 before training camp, produces 80 pts in 82GP. Nylander produces another year of 61 pts in 82GP and Nylander signs for more $ but with a higher salary cap in place.

Production on their ELC was pretty close and Nylander likely expected to get better, he unfortunately didn't do well this year. As far as I am concerned he's available in a good trade for the Leafs but his negotiations were fine.

Again, time to move on, you sound like someone that is dwelling on Nylander and looking to shit on him wherever possible.

 

[MyBudJT]

Regardless on how you feel, ELC production is the only metric GMs can use to determine the first RFA contract, and Nylander had the better ppg, and better p/60, and had more higher scoring seasons. You cant dismiss that because each player entered the NHL at a different age. It was the Leafs choice to keep Nylander in the AHL an extra season.

I have yet to see proof of this by the way. People around here think that ELC production is what determines their next contract. Can someone provide me a source behind this? Has this actually been studied?

I would think that GMs would hold a lot more weight in 3rd year ELC performances than rookie performances. GM's care about projecting what they will become. Why would a GM compare U19 and U20 seasons to U21 and U22 seasons? It makes no sense.

 

[Menzinger]

I have yet to see proof of this by the way. People around here think that ELC production is what determines their next contract. Can someone provide me a source behind this? Has this actually been studied?

I would think that GMs would hold a lot more weight in 3rd year ELC performances than rookie performances. GM's care about projecting what they will become. Why would a GM compare U19 and U20 seasons to U21 and U22 seasons? It makes no sense.

How do you think contracts are determined if not for production?

Players with similar production get similar rfa deals across the league.....

 

[MyBudJT]

14-15 Pasta produced 20ish pts in the NHL/Dominates the AHL and Nylander dominates the AHL/SHL
15/16 - Pasta puts up approx .5 pts/game in the NHL and Nylander dominates the AHL, receives a late call up and posts around .5 pts/game in a limited sample size
16/17 - Nylander puts up 61 pts in 81GP and Pasta puts up 70 pts in 75GP

That is their 3 years.

Pastrnak signs Sept 15 before training camp, produces 80 pts in 82GP. Nylander produces another year of 61 pts in 82GP and Nylander signs for more $ but with a higher salary cap in place.

Production on their ELC was pretty close and Nylander likely expected to get better, he unfortunately didn't do well this year. As far as I am concerned he's available in a good trade for the Leafs but his negotiations were fine.

Again, time to move on, you sound like someone that is dwelling on Nylander and looking to **** on him wherever possible.

You're cherry picking big time by assessing "ELC production" rather than actual production.

U19:
Pastrnak: 46GP 10G 27P
Nylander: Not good enough for the NHL

U20:
Pastrnak: 51GP 15G 26P
Nylander: 22GP 6G 13P

U21:
Pastrnak: 75GP 34G 70P
Nylander: 81GP 22G 61P

U22:
Pastrnak: 82GP 35G 80P
Nylander: 82GP 20G 61P

In no logical way can you compare Pastrnak to Nylander. Its silly. Pastrnak has been, is, and will always be the better player. Horrible comparables.

 

[The CyNick]

Tavares is the line driver there, and is the main reason for Marner having such a good season. Yes, Tavares has had some benefit too, but not near the degree to which Mitch has. It isn't a degradation either, just simple facts and data. Marner is a very good player, but if you are going to analyze both, you can easily come to such conclusions as well.

Sometimes data can be mislead you. Especially when you are working with small sample sizes. I watched virtually every game this past year, and I can confirm Tavares scored a boat load of empty net goals of sick plays by marner.

They obviously help each other, but I don't think you can plug anyone into marners spot and maintain the success of the line.

Marner also contributes in other areas like the PK.

 

[The CyNick]

You're cherry picking big time by assessing "ELC production" rather than actual production.

U19:
Pastrnak: 46GP 10G 27P
Nylander: Not good enough for the NHL

U20:
Pastrnak: 51GP 15G 26P
Nylander: 22GP 6G 13P

U21:
Pastrnak: 75GP 34G 70P
Nylander: 81GP 22G 61P

U22:
Pastrnak: 82GP 35G 80P
Nylander: 82GP 20G 61P

In no logical way can you compare Pastrnak to Nylander. Its silly. Pastrnak has been, is, and will always be the better player. Horrible comparables.

Good post that understands player development cycles. A good GM would not allow an agent to use that comparison. Unfortunately we don't have a good GM, ours is still learning.

 

[MyBudJT]

How do you think contracts are determined if not for production?

I'm not going to throw out suggestions on how its done. I don't know. I asked you for a source since you seem so adamant on it, but you can't seem to do that, eh?

I would think an NHL GM would put more weight in the most recent season (year 3 of an ELC) than they would in year 1. Seems logical, doesn't it?

Players with similar production get similar rfa deals across the league.....

Hey! We agree with something! I never suggested otherwise! What doesn't make sense is using 3 year averages, especially when analyzing different age classes.

Compare a U22 player to a U22 player
Compare a U21 player to a U21 player.
etc, etc