Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[WTFMAN99]

Tavares jump in goals can be attributed to playing with Marner?

Keeping me hanging man

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Have we considered the fact that maybe Marner's game is improving each year?

Or are you suggesting that he's the same player now as he was his rookie/sophomore seasons?

According to Nylander fans marner can’t get any better than 94 points but willy is just getting started and his deal will look great because he has so much more room to improve. They were ok overpaying willy because we are paying for his future but don’t sign marner for any more than 9 because he will have reached his limit
At 94 with no room to succeed because he doesn’t score enough goals.

 

[Deebo]

Several of the prospects that are the most likely to make the leap this year to the big club have performance bonuses in their contracts. e.g., Liljegren, Bracco.

Yes, there are some rookies that have some bonuses available in their contracts, but I said "attainable" bonuses.

Here is the breakdown:

Bracco (82.5k)
Marchment (132.5k)
Brooks(132.5k)
Timashov (70k)
Liljegren (400k)
Kivihalme (132.5k)
Lindgren (132.5k)
Scott (182.5k)
Total : 1.265M

They'd to reach at least one and up to 3 or 4 of the following:

Forwards:

Top 6 is TOI or ATOI (minimum 42 games played) among the teams forwards
20 goals
35 assists
60 points
.73 PPG (minimum 42 games played)
top 3 in +/- on the team among forwards (minimum 42 games played)
All rookie team
NHL all star game
All star MVP

Defense:
Top 4 is TOI or ATOI (minimum 42 games played) among the teams defensemen
10 goals
25 assists
40 points
.49 PPG (minimum 42 games played)
top 3 in +/- on the team among D (minimum 42 games played)
Top 2 in blocked shots among D on team
All rookie team
NHL all star game
All star MVP

Goalies:

Doesn't matter, because Scott is most likely not going to see any NHL time

To me, Liljegren getting top 4 minutes is the only that has a realistic chance of being met and if it is met, there would be only a 400k carry over if they used LTIR during the season. I don't think any of those other guys have any chance of attaining those bonuses.

A possible, but still unlikely, 400k carry over isn't going to dissuade the Leafs from using LTIR as the cap crunch subsides a little next season and without it, they would be in an even tighter spot.

Matthews and Marner had 3.7M in bonuses that were attained, 3.7M in dead cap room for 19/20 would have been a disaster so they made they had enough cap room to cover them.

 

[diceman934]

I don't like speaking for other posters, but I'm 99.9% sure you did not get that right.

Not sure how you get "The highest producer is never the best player on a line" out of "The highest producer isn't always the best player on a line", but you managed to make it happen.

Tavares' Career Highs, pre-Marner: 38G, 50A, 86P
Tavares' Career Highs, post-Marner: 47G (+9), 50A (-), 88P (+2)

Marner's Career Highs, pre-Tavares: 22G, 47A, 69P
Marner's Career Highs, post-Tavares: 26G (+4), 68A (+21), 94P (+25)

I won't say that Marner would never hit those totals without playing with a Center like Tavares (he's young, ridiculously talented, and was pacing in that direction during the latter-half of last year), but it's quite clear that Tavares is gonna Tavares, regardless of whether or not he's got a Marner on his line.

For what it's worth, I do believe that Marner was our best forward this year, but it's undeniable fact which of he or Tavares had a greater impact on the other's scoring.

Lol now compare their first 3 years in the nhl and see who comes out ahead. Then compare best seasons and again see who comes out ahead. Look at JT he never had more goals then assist other then the lock out year when he had played in the Swiss for 25 games until this year if that does not show who is influencing one over the other nothing does. He had never scored over 38 goals and he finished at 48 goals. Marner best him by 6 points not one or two. JT has yet to reach 90 points and Marner did so on his ELC. Most pointed by a Leaf most points per game as well in top 5 in nhl at even strength production.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

According to Nylander fans marner can’t get any better than 94 points but willy is just getting started and his deal will look great because he has so much more room to improve. They were ok overpaying willy because we are paying for his future but don’t sign marner for any more than 9 because he will have reached his limit
At 94 with no room to succeed because he doesn’t score enough goals.

Why is it Nylander vs Marner? No ones bringing up Nylander, why bring it up?

Don't let this be like the Nylander threads where people rip on one side or the other.

 

[IBeL34f]

Lol now compare their first 3 years in the nhl and see who comes out ahead. Then compare best seasons and again see who comes out ahead. Look at JT he never had more goals then assist other then the lock out year when he had played in the Swiss for 25 games until this year if that does not show who is influencing one over the other nothing does. He had never scored over 38 goals and he finished at 48 goals. Marner best him by 6 points not one or two. JT has yet to reach 90 points and Marner did so on his ELC. Most pointed by a Leaf most points per game as well in top 5 in nhl at even strength production.

This is an excellent argument for why Marner may be/become a better player than Tavares. It is not, however, an excellent argument for determining who saw the most benefit from Tavares and Marner playing together.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Yes, there are some rookies that have some bonuses available in their contracts, but I said "attainable" bonuses.

Here is the breakdown:

Bracco (82.5k)
Marchment (132.5k)
Brooks(132.5k)
Timashov (70k)
Liljegren (400k)
Kivihalme (132.5k)
Lindgren (132.5k)
Scott (182.5k)
Total : 1.265M

They'd to reach at least one and up to 3 or 4 of the following:

Forwards:

Top 6 is TOI or ATOI (minimum 42 games played) among the teams forwards
20 goals
35 assists
60 points
.73 PPG (minimum 42 games played)
top 3 in +/- on the team among forwards (minimum 42 games played)
All rookie team
NHL all star game
All star MVP

Defense:
Top 4 is TOI or ATOI (minimum 42 games played) among the teams defensemen
10 goals
25 assists
40 points
.49 PPG (minimum 42 games played)
top 3 in +/- on the team among D (minimum 42 games played)
Top 2 in blocked shots among D on team
All rookie team
NHL all star game
All star MVP

Goalies:

Doesn't matter, because Scott is most likely not going to see any NHL time

To me, Liljegren getting top 4 minutes is the only that has a realistic chance of being met and if it is met, there would be only a 400k carry over if they used LTIR during the season. I don't think any of those other guys have any chance of attaining those bonuses.

A possible, but still unlikely, 400k carry over isn't going to dissuade the Leafs from using LTIR as the cap crunch subsides a little next season and without it, they would be in an even tighter spot.

Matthews and Marner had 3.7M in bonuses that were attained, 3.7M in dead cap room for 19/20 would have been a disaster so they made they had enough cap room to cover them.

Very good info & thorough.

Is it not likely though that we'll need to use Horton's LTIR because we'll be right up against the total cap number? If so, those bonuses would have to carried forward to the following year. Just thinking out loud and seeing if I'm adding things up correctly.

 

[IBeL34f]

Why is it Nylander vs Marner? No ones bringing up Nylander, why bring it up?

Don't let this be like the Nylander threads where people rip on one side or the other.

You are too late. Like Thanos, Leafs fans needlessly pitting their players against each other is inevitable.

 

[4thline]

Very good info & thorough.

Is it not likely though that we'll need to use Horton's LTIR because we'll be right up against the total cap number? If so, those bonuses would have to carried forward to the following year. Just thinking out loud and seeing if I'm adding things up correctly.

Any that are awarded, but not many are likely.

 

[CelticDruid]

I saw people saying the only person you trade Marner for is a Seth Jones type defenceman. Who would this be? Only guy I can think of is Ekblad but why would Florida do that?[/QUOTE

It would be Ekblad plus a first going the other way.

 

[moon111]

True - and if you go back to last summer in the thread about how many points Tavares would get during his first season with the Leafs, playing with Marner on his wing, how many posters expected Tavares' point production to go up by less than 5?

I honestly think, despite the time he's been in the league, Tavares hasn't learned playoff hockey. He's an awesome regular season player who despite not putting up much more in points, was also more successful in defense with the presence of Hyman. He had no adjustment to his game, no respect for playoff hockey. The opposition is just waiting in ambush for you to make one mistake.
And if you look at the players on the Leafs that took risks, they ended up minus players during the series. Players who never over-extended their offense were the player who ended up plus players.
Tavares, Marner, and Johnsson played hockey the way they've been success at it. And why not? Guys like these have dominated their entire hockey lives on their offense. But now the opposition is just as good offensively. And if you don't learn to respect that, you'll get burnt. Boston simply counter-striked against them for more goals they they scored. Personally, it's the respect to play right that makes me believe Matthews is worth much more then either Tavares or Marner. He might not be there yet, but you can see further development in him trying to be the best two-way player he can. Maybe you don't try to change Tavares or Marner, but perhaps the two players are not suited to be together, especially in the playoffs. It's fun in the regular season, especially v.s. non-playoff teams, but when it's time to respect the opposition, only having one winger doing so it's enough.

 

[Deebo]

Very good info & thorough.

Is it not likely though that we'll need to use Horton's LTIR because we'll be right up against the total cap number? If so, those bonuses would have to carried forward to the following year. Just thinking out loud and seeing if I'm adding things up correctly.

They'll need to use LTIR on Horton because they'll need to squeeze every penny they can get to ice their roster but LTIR room can't be used to cover performance bonuses so if they use any LTIR room, the whole amount of performance bonuses attained will carryover to next year.

But a carryover won't matter nearly as much for 2020/21 as it would have for 2019/20.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Any that are awarded, but not many are likely.

I understood that point i.e., bonuses that are actually achieved versus those stated in the contract that might be achieved.

The point I was making is that IF we are right up against the cap (pretty reasonable chance that occurs) this season, then those bonuses (whatever amount) will carry forward to the following season.

I'm also thinking about the future and that the Leafs tend to spend to the maximum versus sit on unused cap. So, if that were the case, it would have an impact in 2 years (seasons) from now.

 

[4thline]

I understood that point i.e., bonuses that are actually achieved versus those stated in the contract that might be achieved.

The point I was making is that IF we are right up against the cap (pretty reasonable chance that occurs) this season, then those bonuses (whatever amount) will carry forward to the following season.

I'm also thinking about the future and that the Leafs tend to spend to the maximum versus sit on unused cap. So, if there were the case, it would have an impact in 2 years (seasons) from now.

Yup, that is correct if we're capped out (as using Horton would have us) it would have to carry over. But the odds of a material impact are quite small

 

[Menzinger]

If that offer was real, it certainly looks like it would have been the right choice. But at the time, it was a contract significantly higher than he had a case for. Similar in that way to this situation. It would require quite a bet on Marner's potential, and he'd likely get roasted for it at the time.

I believe the rumored deal was for about 9 mil a season. Assuming that's true, that's barely less than what hes worth after putting up a 90 point season (most projection models seem to have him earning 9.2-9.7mil a season).

Id admit in retrospect it would have been fine, but this place would have rioted if he got that after a 69 point season

 

[Deebo]

I understood that point i.e., bonuses that are actually achieved versus those stated in the contract that might be achieved.

The point I was making is that IF we are right up against the cap (pretty reasonable chance that occurs) this season, then those bonuses (whatever amount) will carry forward to the following season.

I'm also thinking about the future and that the Leafs tend to spend to the maximum versus sit on unused cap. So, if there were the case, it would have an impact in 2 years (seasons) from now.

It'd be such negligible amount coming carrying over that they wouldn't worry about it.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Yup, that is correct if we're capped out (as using Horton would have us) it would have to carry over. But the odds of a material impact are quite small

Probably but hard to predict exactly what will happen 2 years from now. I do know that our tendency is to spend to the maximum cap limit versus sitting on unused cap space.

 

[Bomber0104]

According to Nylander fans marner can’t get any better than 94 points but willy is just getting started and his deal will look great because he has so much more room to improve. They were ok overpaying willy because we are paying for his future but don’t sign marner for any more than 9 because he will have reached his limit
At 94 with no room to succeed because he doesn’t score enough goals.

Luckily for Marner supporters, they won't need to blame the coach, make excuses, and go digging for obscure, irrelevant hockey blog stats to demonstrate his worth.

 

[Deebo]

Probably but hard to predict exactly what will happen 2 years from now. I do know that our tendency is to spend to maximum cap limit versus sitting on unused cap space.

being able to use 5.3M of cap room this year outweighs the remote possibility of being out 400k next year.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

being able to use 5.3M of cap room this year outweighs the remote possibility of being out 400k next year.

Most likely yes.

I guess I keep thinking about how quickly we got to having cap issues after embarking upon our rebuild. Its good to understand history as it so often repeats itself.

Just an aside re: Liljegren - given our cap crunch and the paucity of our signed resources at D, is it possible (or how likely) that Liljegren will play 42 games possibly as a top 4 defender?

 

[Menzinger]

You are too late. Like Thanos, Leafs fans needlessly pitting their players against each other is inevitable.

Almost as if folks dont understand that liking a player doesnt stop you from being a fan of the team.

 

[81Leafs50]

My point is that they are still being paid the same equivalent amount of money regardless of whether it's in USD or CAD. Whereas taxes actually change the bottom line takehome amount.

Youre also making a big assumption in that the player in question ever converts the bulk of their money into Canadian Dollars. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. End of the day it's still the same amount of money, just in a different currency.

Also you'd be best not to presume others people's knowledge level on subjects. You don't know me.

I've softened on the tax issue over time, though I still see some degree of legitimacy do it, I don't think it's a huge issue as I once did. The living in Canada paid in USD thing though doesn't come to same though.

For context. I worked for 3 years for a US company, from home in Canada, paid in USD. The fact that I made my dollar in USD and then converted it to CAD didn't ever stop me from wanting be paid the samr USD as my peers. Exchange doesn't suddenly make you have more money. It's pretty simple math.

You can do more with 12mill in Canada than 9.5 mill in the US. I know. its my job.

 

[IPS]

Luckily for Marner supporters, they won't need to blame the coach, make excuses, and go digging for obscure, irrelevant hockey blog stats to demonstrate his worth.

???

I do quite the opposite actually. I think Marner could have easily gotten 100+ points with fully optimized offensive usage.

 

[Menzinger]

Actually, the fact Tavares has been in this league for 10 years, and only this year did he destroy his 5 v 5 production is a testament to Marner. He scored a eye popping 12 more goals even strength than he has in his elite career, his points equally impressive.

Its really amusing to me the full time Nylander tire pumpers always seem to be the Marner detractors. Its just so transparent.

Marner has benefitted Tavares, period. Tavares has benefitted Marner period. The fact a 10 year pro just obliterated his career highs even strength wasn't an accident.

Speaking of transparency, folks who have been whining about the Leafs cap situation the loudest all of a sudden seem to be fine with the team writing a blank cheque to sign the guy no matter what the cost.

 

[LeafSteel]

Not going through the whole thread and all the numbers, but wondering: along with Marner benefiting from Tavares and Tavares benefiting from Tavares, are we considering BOTH benefited from our forward depth, and didn’t automatically draw top defences and other teams top lines?

I think that might also have some impact.