Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[MyBudJT]

Why are people so bothered with a 22 year old signing a deal that he has. He is still growing into a player, and his contract will be an after thought and bargain in not too long.

Leave Nylander alone. His cap hit is a bargain already when you compare him to 11.34 million dollar players and what they are producing.

Give me a break.

Had Nylander showed more improvement from his rookie season, I’d be much less concerned. Also the heavy he hasn’t been able to produce more more than a 50 pt pace away from Matthews’ wing.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

Do you not believe you should get what your worth in your own work??

I'm not sure what I'm like in my personal life is relevant to the conversation/thread but I will say that I feel there is nothing wrong with prioritizing other elements (such as personal growth, family wants, team needs etc.) over money.

 

[Erndog]

The issue is that the existing comparables are based on lower salary cap figures in past years. We don't know what the comparables are for the other RFAs in Marner's class because no one has signed with their respective clubs yet.

Not to mention, we already know Marner's camp is hell bent on using Matthews' contract as a comparable based on the Leafs internal salary structure.

It seems outrageous, but I can't see this getting done for under a 11 million dollar AAV unless it's a short term deal.

I had this vision last night of a 3 year deal. Something in the 7's.

Kucherov did a 3 year one.

I doubt it happens but I wouldn't be absolutely shocked.

 

[Gary Nylund]

They're great comparables. Poor equivalents. Those are different words. Too many people on this board think that to be comparable things need to be equal.

Very well put!

 

[MyBudJT]

They're great comparables. Poor equivalents. Those are different words. Too many people on this board think that to be comparable things need to be equal.

Fair enough, but the comparables you used justifies the point I was making. They all had better Production prior to signing their contract, and a couple of them even cane at a cheaper price tag than Willy.

 

[mr grieves]

Oh I agree that if a team is really thinking about an offer sheet that trade talks are almost inevitable before they go the offer sheet route, and that we should look at that. I'm just of the opinion that the sky isn't falling and we shouldn't cave to baseless demands from Marner, we should play hardball to get him on a Kucherov-esque deal (which to me is still higher than he should get by merit, he isn't as good of a player as Kucherov was when he signed that and has a lot less leverage with 4 RFA years rather than the 1 that Kuch had, and there's no cap inflation to apply because Kuch's deal takes effect next season)

I think it's death by a handful of cuts if you pay all of your RFA's at-or-above the peak of their comparable fields when you have RFA's that are as good as the Leafs. No matter how good the core guys are, they need a supporting cast, and I don't want to end up being Edmonton so if we need to downgrade on Marner to make sure that we have talent around the roster, that's ok with me.

I also think that the extra cap space to shop for a replacement now (Skinner maybe?) plus a handful of high picks will keep the team almost as good now (and we just lost to one of the best 2 teams in the NHL without playing our best, we're very good), while making the team better in the 4-9 years from now window when those picks turn into high-ceiling ELC assets. I'd be fine with this if it comes to pass, despite Marner being a very, very good player.

so, I'm optimistic regardless of this particular outcome

This is more or less what I think. I'm pretty optimistic here, more than with Nylander, because if the Leafs don't get Marner for something sane (i.e. ~$9.5m on a long-term deal or an inflated but manageable bridge -- $8m?), they can trade him. And, if there are teams willing to sign him for what his side is demanding, the return on Marner would be a LOT higher than what was considered with Nylander.

Instead of a comparably talented and aged defenseman, negotiations start there. Or high-end forward prospect, decent defensive upgrade, and picks, one of which would be a first. That, imo, isn't a bad outcome for the Leafs in the short or longterm.

The difference this time, I think, is that the Leafs have to be serious about holding a line -- whatever it is they calculate it must be (I'd guess $9.5m)--and willing to trade him if that won't work for his side.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

You tell people taxes don't matter then try to justify it using canadian vs us dollars as your basis? What kind of nonsense is this...

The exchange is completely irrelevant. Converting US money to Canadian is the exact same amount of wealth just in a different currency. And all nhl players are paid in USD

Leafs also pay on a % wise the largest portion of the contracts to their stars as bonuses. There’s a non inconsequential advantage of being paid a large sum of money July 1 vs salary just from simple time value of money. 28 other teams can’t do that, but you’re completely ignoring that factor.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Leafs also pay on a % wise the largest portion of the contracts to their stars as bonuses. There’s a non inconsequential advantage of being paid a large sum of money July 1 vs salary just from simple time value of money. 28 other teams can’t do that, but you’re completely ignoring that factor.

Correct. Who wouldn't want their money up front?

We have lots of advantages that you'd expect from having a wealthy team with deep pockets. The whining and playing the victim card is unwarranted.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

WHY GOD WHY??? WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP REFERRING TO OTHER CONTRACTS AND REPEAT OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER ..... this and that state dont have any tax. "calculate the net".

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE WORLD TODAY.

Can no one do simple math?

simple as pie....

Mark Stone AAV $9,500,000 USD
No state tax in Nevada (TRUE)
Federal tax for someone living in Nevada (Effective Tax Rate) 36.59%

SO Mark Stone pays $3,476,250 in FEDERAL TAXES = $5,794,340 USD TAKE HOME PAY.

IN ONTARIO
Mark Stone AAV $9,500,000 USD (is $12,856,682.50 CAD)
Salary $12,856,682
Federal tax deduction - $4,219,979
Provincial tax deduction - $2,624,960
CPP deductions - $2,594
EI deductions - $858
Total tax - $6,848,391
Net pay * $6,008,287 CAD

NOW the comparison:
$5,794,340 USD
$6,008,287 CAD

its a difference of $1,833,396.12 if both values are converted to CAD.

Please stop talking about no tax states. Its NOT a huge seller when you make USD and live in Canada. Plus players have all sorts of ways to save on taxes and save millions over their careers. Agents, lawyers, and accountants, are very very smart people.

I personally hope the Leafs let Marner sign an offer sheet or trade him. Offer sheet gets you 4 1sts and a trade gets you 4 pieces.

After that the Leafs can use the money saved on Marner to sign Panarin or Karlsson or Trouba.

WIN-WIN for Leafs.

What happens if Marner doesn't sign before July 1st (Marner has until Dec. 1)? How many of those good free agents will still be available on July 2nd (or even late afternoon on July 1st)?

 

[CDN24]

I think some of you in this thread severely underappreciate how rare Auston Matthews actually is as a hockey player.

How many players go #1 overall, come into the league very next season, and then over the course of their ELC go on to be the most productive goal scorer in the entire league. Then consider how few of those near him got less powerplay opportunity or predominantly played 2nd powerplay unit, OR played on a regular line for their first 2 years with no linemate more experienced than themself, or how many of the players in question were centers, who are far more commonly playmakers instead of shooters... even fewer of which 6'3" 220lbs.

To be honest, Matthews is a player who doesn't exactly have a real comparable.

Matthews has been good but what he has done is not unheard of.

Matthews on ELC 212 Gp 111G 94A 205 pts. .52 goals per game.
Ovechkin No 1 overall as well ELC 245 GP 163goals 147 assists 310 points 0.67 Goals per game Entry to NHL delayed by a year because of 2004 lockout
Mc david ELC 209Gp 87G 169A 256 pts 0.42 goals per game but 1.22 pts per game
jack eichel ELC 209 GP 73G 104A 177 pts 0.35 goals per game
Crosby ELC 213 GP 99G 195A 294 pts 0.47 goals game
Rick NasH 208 GP 89G 61A 150 pts

And the man of the hour Marner

241 GP 67G 157A and 224pts

Personally, I think Matthews is a great player but at 11.6 M coming off ELC he is overpaid on a 5 yr contract. Marner is pretty close to him in point per game production. yes Marner came into league a year after is draft year but he is not a year older than Matthews. Remember matthews missed the 2015 draft by 2 days on his date of birth. born a week earlier and he is the youngest player in the 2015 draft as opposed to the oldest in the 2016. Marner is only 4 months older.

Centre vs Wing means something most times but not in this case. Marner other than taking draws plays more like a centre as a puck distributer and defensively responsible. His assist to goals ratio at a bit over 2 to one compares to centres like crosby 1.73 to one or Mcdavid 1.75 to one.

Matthews the centre plays more like a goal scoring winger like Ovi. his goals to assist ratio is 1.18 to one, Ovi is 1.19 to one, Rick nash is 1.19 to one. While AM34 is the centre he is the scorer not playmaker. MM is theplaymaker. I want to see them on the same line.

They way out of this is to give MM similar money to AM. say 10.5 to 11M on more term- full 8 years and move someone else- nylander?? to make room. Over the next 5 years MM will be as valuable or more valuable than AM34.

 

[A1LeafNation]

The difference between Nylander and Marner isn't 3+ million a year.

Nylander coming off a terrible season. Marner coming off a perfect season for him.

Both are closer to what they did their first two years in the league.

 

[The CyNick]

Seems like players want to double dip. Getting a five year deal allows them to reset their cap percentage number and take advantage of the increased cap that will come after the new TV contact.

 

[IBeL34f]

Matthews has been good but what he has done is not unheard of.

Matthews on ELC 212 Gp 111G 94A 205 pts. .52 goals per game.
Ovechkin No 1 overall as well ELC 245 GP 163goals 147 assists 310 points 0.67 Goals per game Entry to NHL delayed by a year because of 2004 lockout
Mc david ELC 209Gp 87G 169A 256 pts 0.42 goals per game but 1.22 pts per game
jack eichel ELC 209 GP 73G 104A 177 pts 0.35 goals per game
Crosby ELC 213 GP 99G 195A 294 pts 0.47 goals game
Rick NasH 208 GP 89G 61A 150 pts

And the man of the hour Marner

241 GP 67G 157A and 224pts

Personally, I think Matthews is a great player but at 11.6 M coming off ELC he is overpaid on a 5 yr contract. Marner is pretty close to him in point per game production. yes Marner came into league a year after is draft year but he is not a year older than Matthews. Remember matthews missed the 2015 draft by 2 days on his date of birth. born a week earlier and he is the youngest player in the 2015 draft as opposed to the oldest in the 2016. Marner is only 4 months older.

Centre vs Wing means something most times but not in this case. Marner other than taking draws plays more like a centre as a puck distributer and defensively responsible. His assist to goals ratio at a bit over 2 to one compares to centres like crosby 1.73 to one or Mcdavid 1.75 to one.

Matthews the centre plays more like a goal scoring winger like Ovi. his goals to assist ratio is 1.18 to one, Ovi is 1.19 to one, Rick nash is 1.19 to one. While AM34 is the centre he is the scorer not playmaker. MM is theplaymaker. I want to see them on the same line.

They way out of this is to give MM similar money to AM. say 10.5 to 11M on more term- full 8 years and move someone else- nylander?? to make room. Over the next 5 years MM will be as valuable or more valuable than AM34.

What Matthews has done over his ELC actually is pretty much unheard of - Since they started recording the stat, he's literally the only player in the League to lead the NHL in G/60 over the course of their ELC.

Also, the notion that Matthews plays more like a winger just because he scores more goals than assists is ridiculous - The guy is great on the draws, and, up until this injury-maligned season, has always been a 2-way beast in addition to his insane offensive production.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

The difference between Nylander and Marner isn't 3+ million a year. Nylander coming off a terrible season. Marner coming off a perfect season for him. Both are closer to what they did their first two years in the league.

 

[CDN24]

What Matthews has done over his ELC actually is pretty much unheard of - Since they started recording the stat, he's literally the only player in the League to lead the NHL in G/60 over the course of their ELC.

Also, the notion that Matthews plays more like a winger just because he scores more goals than assists is ridiculous - The guy is great on the draws, and, up until this injury-maligned season, has always been a 2-way beast in addition to his insane offensive production.

When did they start recording the stat? who had more G/60 than ovechkin from 2005-6 through 2007-8? I don't have a stat for G/60 from back then but I know Ovi had 20+ goaLs more than anyone else over his elc.

 

[The CyNick]

What Matthews has done over his ELC actually is pretty much unheard of - Since they started recording the stat, he's literally the only player in the League to lead the NHL in G/60 over the course of their ELC.

Also, the notion that Matthews plays more like a winger just because he scores more goals than assists is ridiculous - The guy is great on the draws, and, up until this injury-maligned season, has always been a 2-way beast in addition to his insane offensive production.

He's not a two way beast. Bergeron is a two way beast. Matthews needs a ton of work in his own zone. Ask a pro scout if you don't believe me.

 

[TML1967]

Wouldn't that take him straight to UFA? If EvolvingWild got the price curve right (independent of actual AAV) in their model (), then it would look like 4yrs is the worst option, but obviously it could be wrong. Is there really any precedent for that kind of contract for a player of Marner's caliber?

My guess would be that if the sticking point in negotiations is Marner claiming he produces like his final ELC year, and management claiming he produces like his body of work, we'd see a 3yr. If Marner is too expensive on 7-8yr and won't budge, then we'll see a 5 year. But IMO I don't think we'd see a 4 yr contract.

If Marneres 3 year cost is under 8m, sign me up. Still is an RFA at the end of the deal, we have Matthews/Nylander for an additonal 2 seasons, and Tavares for 4 more before we need to worry about contracts.

I think the most important thing we can do is stagger the big contracts. The newest one will be at value, and the ones half way done will be either good value or regualr value depending on the cap increases.
If Everyone is up at once (like now) than every contract is just the regular value, and 3 years in they should be good deals, 5 years really good, and going into the final years steals.

 

[diceman934]

Outproduced Matthews????? By what measure......total points when paying 30 more games??

Or maybe its him playing with all-stars?

Ppg. I guess you never knew that Marner out produced Mathews I guess you now know. Your welcome

 

[diceman934]

Senators make more sense to me.

Do they have their 1st. rounders in 22 and 23?

Sure the return for the Leafs could be good, but the return for the Senators would be Marner.

And it would be "putting it to the Leafs."

Lol. Senators are not spending 11m per on any player. They are going to spend to the floor for the next few years as the owner himself said. They are likely the team that warehouse Marleau contract this year for a price.

 

[MyBudJT]

The difference between Nylander and Marner isn't 3+ million a year.

Nylander coming off a terrible season. Marner coming off a perfect season for him.

Both are closer to what they did their first two years in the league.

What a ridiculous take. Marner is easily 3M better than Willy

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[diceman934]

Because if I told you who that someone was (has been in the game 30+ years in numerous capacities) you'd just dismiss it anyways because you probably dont like the guy.

Was he a former assistant GM of the Leafs as he told me the same thing. He is a lawyer am I correct

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Because Marner is looking for 10-12 on a team already cap strapped. If they sign him, they need to drop a couple players. An offer sheet to Marner could really really hamstring Toronto or be an interesting test case. All or almost all of those other guys are insta-matches or are looking at 4m+ less than Marner

 

[IBeL34f]

When did they start recording the stat? who had more G/60 than ovechkin from 2005-6 through 2007-8? I don't have a stat for G/60 from back then but I know Ovi had 20+ goaLs more than anyone else over his elc.

The stats don't go far back enough to include Ovechkin's ELC, so I also assume he's the last player to achieve the feat. Makes Matthews the only player in the last decade, and the only Center since Who Knows?

He's not a two way beast. Bergeron is a two way beast. Matthews needs a ton of work in his own zone. Ask a pro scout if you don't believe me.

He is a two-way beast, when he wants to be. There was something real wrong with his motor this year, which I attribute mostly to his injuries and lingering pains, given everything I've seen over his entire (albeit short) career.
I assume a pro scout told you Rielly was nothing more than a #4-6 D?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Because Marner is looking for 10-12 on a team already cap strapped. If they sign him, they need to drop a couple players. An offer sheet to Marner could really really hamstring Toronto or be an interesting test case. All or almost all of those other guys are insta-matches or are looking at 4m+ less than Marner

Where are the Point threads? Tampa is in a similar cap situation and Point had a much better season than Marner.