Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[Sypher04]

Do you not believe you should get what your worth in your own work??

Except Marner, as a winger, according to the NHL market, isn't worth Matthews money...

 

[robertmac43]

What if your sense of self-worth is whacked?

I mean in terms of Marner I would agree with the sentiment; however with Matthews, Tavares, and Willie I think they got about what they deserve.

 

[robertmac43]

Except Marner isn't worth Matthews money...

I was talking about the Matthews and Tavares contracts.

 

[Nithoniniel]

It's weird to me that so many of the same posters who were livid that Nylander got arguably around $500K too much for his comparables, and Matthews got $1M too much compared to his, are somehow fine with Marner getting $2M more than his comparables.

Personally, I think all of these players are worth more than people seem to think. I mean, it's important to differentiate what players are worth and what they can make a case for. In terms of the former, I think all of these could live up to their contracts and more if they were given the kind of minutes, especially on the PP, that other top players get.

We're going to be leaning more on them going forward, and I expect them to blow most of those comparables out of the water.

 

[Sypher04]

I was talking about the Matthews and Tavares contracts.

Ah. Well, Tavares took less money to sign here, and Matthews is better than Tavares, so I think both contracts are at least fine.

 

[Sypher04]

It's weird to me that so many of the same posters who were livid that Nylander got arguably around $500K too much for his comparables, and Matthews got $1M too much compared to his, are somehow fine with Marner getting $2M more than his comparables.

I think calling Matthews contract 1M overpaid is extremely generous too tbh. The only reason it looks even slightly bad is that it's 5 years.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I think calling Matthews contract 1M overpaid is extremely generous too tbh. The only reason it looks even slightly bad is that it's 5 years.

Oh totally agree. I'm of the opinion that Nylander was at most a bit overpaid at the time, and that Matthews ridiculous goalscoring and production with context in mind is worth about that much. I like to judge contracts based on a larger group of comparables, and in both cases they end up close.

Can't really say that if Marner ends up getting $11M+. I don't think he will though. I'm guessing $9.5-10M.

 

[C77]

Ten years ago (wow it's already been ten years) the Bruins were in the same situation with Kessel. The summer dragged on without any news and the longer it went the more it became clear he wasn't staying in Boston. Frankly, Chiarelli got lucky with how that turned out because they got caught with their pants down. He got lucky because Burke was willing to negotiate in good faith. Similar situation with Hamilton, Edmonton was considering the offer sheet so he was moved to Calgary. The return was poor for a player with his pedigree and upside. The RFA and the acquiring team have the upper hand. It sucks when it's the player that your organization drafted and developed.

Regarding Marner, I think the biggest risk comes from the Islanders and Flyers. Both teams have cap room, are on the upswing, and have strong farm systems so they will have young ELC talent coming up. It's possible but doesn't seem likely that either team will have a Top 10 pick in the near future, especially with a player like Marner in the fold. Even if you get a Top 10 pick, say #7 overall, what are the odds that you get a Marner-level talent? If I were Lamoriello, I'd certainly be willing to move the four 1st rounders for Marner. The Islanders could even pay him McDavid money if they wanted and still have space for Barzal.

The best hope is that Marner really does want to stay in Toronto. If he wants to maximize his salary, it really leaves the
Leafs in a bind.

 

[Erndog]

Oh, well if "someone" said it then it must be true. How could I dismiss that?

Because if I told you who that someone was (has been in the game 30+ years in numerous capacities) you'd just dismiss it anyways because you probably dont like the guy.

 

[Sypher04]

Because if I told you who that someone was (has been in the game 30+ years in numerous capacities) you'd just dismiss it anyways because you probably dont like the guy.

Sometimes it's not about dislike. Sometimes it's more that their reporting just hasn't proven credible.
Not sure who you are talking about, but without a name, why even bother posting it. Better chance people believe it with a name than without one.

 

[MyBudJT]

Ten years ago (wow it's already been ten years) the Bruins were in the same situation with Kessel. The summer dragged on without any news and the longer it went the more it became clear he wasn't staying in Boston. Frankly, Chiarelli got lucky with how that turned out because they got caught with their pants down. He got lucky because Burke was willing to negotiate in good faith. Similar situation with Hamilton, Edmonton was considering the offer sheet so he was moved to Calgary. The return was poor for a player with his pedigree and upside. The RFA and the acquiring team have the upper hand. It sucks when it's the player that your organization drafted and developed.

Regarding Marner, I think the biggest risk comes from the Islanders and Flyers. Both teams have cap room, are on the upswing, and have strong farm systems so they will have young ELC talent coming up. It's possible but doesn't seem likely that either team will have a Top 10 pick in the near future, especially with a player like Marner in the fold. Even if you get a Top 10 pick, say #7 overall, what are the odds that you get a Marner-level talent? If I were Lamoriello, I'd certainly be willing to move the four 1st rounders for Marner. The Islanders could even pay him McDavid money if they wanted and still have space for Barzal.

The best hope is that Marner really does want to stay in Toronto. If he wants to maximize his salary, it really leaves the
Leafs in a bind.

Marner is on a higher tier than Kessel and Hamilton though. So if this happens, it would be much more painful.

That said, I think more often than not, its not worth matching an offersheet. It didn't work out for Thomas Vanek, Dustin Penner, and arguably Shea Weber.

 

[Mess]

Senators make more sense to me.

Do they have their 1st. rounders in 22 and 23?

Sure the return for the Leafs could be good, but the return for the Senators would be Marner.

And it would be "putting it to the Leafs."

If you grew up a diehard Leaf fan could you see yourself in a Sens or Habs jersey?

I suppose money talks, and it would still be close to home, but joining an arch rival takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to stomach.

Now say Edmonton puts out a promo video with McDavid in the summer as recruiting tool to say "come play wing for me in Oil country and get rich".. This identical strategy worked to recruit JT to TO, so Mitch would be familiar with the tactics. The story almost sells itself .. Might even splice in some Gretzky/Kurri footage magic of past.

 

[Erndog]

Sometimes it's not about dislike. Sometimes it's more that their reporting just hasn't proven credible.
Not sure who you are talking about, but without a name, why even bother posting it. Better chance people believe it with a name than without one.

Pierre McGuire.

(awaits the "Pierres doesn't know anything" comments...)

 

[ShaneFalco]

Pierre McGuire.

(awaits the "Pierres doesn't know anything" comments...)

That guy is an idiot! J/K he's annoying but generally has some valid info

 

[Nithoniniel]

Ten years ago (wow it's already been ten years) the Bruins were in the same situation with Kessel. The summer dragged on without any news and the longer it went the more it became clear he wasn't staying in Boston. Frankly, Chiarelli got lucky with how that turned out because they got caught with their pants down. He got lucky because Burke was willing to negotiate in good faith. Similar situation with Hamilton, Edmonton was considering the offer sheet so he was moved to Calgary. The return was poor for a player with his pedigree and upside. The RFA and the acquiring team have the upper hand. It sucks when it's the player that your organization drafted and developed.

Regarding Marner, I think the biggest risk comes from the Islanders and Flyers. Both teams have cap room, are on the upswing, and have strong farm systems so they will have young ELC talent coming up. It's possible but doesn't seem likely that either team will have a Top 10 pick in the near future, especially with a player like Marner in the fold. Even if you get a Top 10 pick, say #7 overall, what are the odds that you get a Marner-level talent? If I were Lamoriello, I'd certainly be willing to move the four 1st rounders for Marner. The Islanders could even pay him McDavid money if they wanted and still have space for Barzal.

The best hope is that Marner really does want to stay in Toronto. If he wants to maximize his salary, it really leaves the
Leafs in a bind.

Thanks for the outside perspective. Much appreciated. It is a rather bleak outlook though, but you make a good case for it.

Much has been said about Marner's connection with the Leafs. I guess we'll have to hope it's actually true, like you said.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Pierre McGuire.

(awaits the "Pierres doesn't know anything" comments...)

Pierre knows stuff, but this is still just an opinion. I don't see a reason why he deserves that much more than any player with a similar case does.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Marner for Werenski & Anderson

Add a winger via Free agency

Love Marner, but if he wants to be greedy and is willing to throw away his life long dream of being a Maple Leaf, Dubas needs to grow a pair and show him the door

The Crest on the Front > the name on the back

 

[Sypher04]

Pierre McGuire.

(awaits the "Pierres doesn't know anything" comments...)

I actually have no qualms with Pierre. He gets carried away at times, but overall I think he's pretty reasonable. I will say that Marner IS worth 4 first round picks - in fact, 4 1sts for us would likely end up a crap deal for someone of Marner's calibre. He can't just be replaced. This all said, I still don't think Marner is worth 11M as per the market.

 

[4thline]

Oh totally agree. I'm of the opinion that Nylander was at most a bit overpaid at the time, and that Matthews ridiculous goalscoring and production with context in mind is worth about that much. I like to judge contracts based on a larger group of comparables, and in both cases they end up close.

Can't really say that if Marner ends up getting $11M+. I don't think he will though. I'm guessing $9.5-10M.

Really depends on the comparables. There's a strong case to be made for Kane's 2nd contract being the best at 9.2x 5, which would put him at 10.1-10.7 x8 (300k-500k per UFA year)

But if the market speaks and decides he's worth more than that it is what it is.

 

[C77]

Marner is on a higher tier than Kessel and Hamilton though. So if this happens, it would be much more painful.

That said, I think more often than not, its not worth matching an offersheet. It didn't work out for Thomas Vanek, Dustin Penner, and arguably Shea Weber.

I agree. Marner is an astonishing talent which to me makes the rare offer sheet scenario more plausible.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Really depends on the comparables. There's a strong case to be made for Kane's 2nd contract being the best at 9.2x 5, which would put him at 10.1-10.7 x8 (300k-500k per UFA year)

But if the market speaks and decides he's worth more than that it is what it is.

It sure is. But I would be profoundly disappointed if it went that far.

 

[MyBudJT]

Really depends on the comparables. There's a strong case to be made for Kane's 2nd contract being the best at 9.2x 5, which would put him at 10.1-10.7 x8 (300k-500k per UFA year)

But if the market speaks and decides he's worth more than that it is what it is.

It sure is. But I would be profoundly disappointed if it went that far.

Kane is the best comparable, but that was a while ago now too. I think RFAs have been getting paid more money in recent years, which is another reason why we'll probably see Marner sign higher than any "comprable" out there. Marner's comparables are outdated, and there are none in recent years.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Because if I told you who that someone was (has been in the game 30+ years in numerous capacities) you'd just dismiss it anyways because you probably dont like the guy.

Yet you expect me to believe this unnamed source that I wouldn't trust?

 

[mr grieves]

Kane is the best comparable, but that was a while ago now too. I think RFAs have been getting paid more money in recent years, which is another reason why we'll probably see Marner sign higher than any "comprable" out there. Marner's comparables are outdated, and there are none in recent years.

I doubt the other similar players up this year will all be setting new standards for second contract compensation, but, even if there is a new normal, that's a separate issue from whether the Leafs should sign Marner at the new market rate. They cannot afford a team that can contend with him at 12%+ of the cap. So, that's when you look for other things to do with the $9.5m (or whatever) you've got earmarked for him.

sorry if this has been done already, what teams could realistically make an offer sheet that are good enough that you're worried about not getting at least a couple of top 10 picks as compensation?

[...]

Colorado - who will have to deal with both Makar & whoever they select with the 4OA to deal with in a couple of years, so they may be weary of an offer sheet war
Florida - where whatever Marner makes in endorsements drops dramatically
Buffalo - who will have Dahlin to deal with in a couple of years, so they may be weary of starting an offer sheet war
maybe Dallas? - who will have to be weary of offer sheets for Heiskanen in a couple of years
NYI - with Barzal & Pulock to deal with next year and a slough of good prospects after, so may be weary of the offer sheet war, and honestly
Carolina - with Aho this year and Svechnikov in 2, ditto

I mean, right here you've shown why offer sheets are out and provided the basis for a number of trades. Some of those players, or other young talent already contract that'd making signing them + Marner hard, could be part of a trade for Marner. Any team (or at least some teams) willing to sign him for over $10.56m probably values him enough that they'd part with such assets to get his rights.

but personally, if any of Ottawa, NJ, Philly, Vancouver, Minnesota, NYR, Arizona want to try, their 4 x 1st should be a hell of a bounty especially with fitting in a Marner contract that we think is too much to match

I'd take all those firsts, yes. But I'd also see look to see if there's mutual advantage in getting ahead of the offer sheet and trading Marner for a couple of 1sts and, say, Pateryn + Zucker (MIN), Kravtsov/Chytil + Skjei (NYR), or Konecny + Gudas (PHL).

 

[Mess]

Maybe Mitch offers Dubas the same deal Matthews did to help keep the team together with a $9 mil X 3 year bridge deal.