Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[Gary Nylund]

The best hope is that Marner really does want to stay in Toronto. If he wants to maximize his salary, it really leaves the
Leafs in a bind.

I don't see it happening myself because if he gets more salary elsewhere, he'll lose more than that in missed endorsement opportunities. The Leafs simply have to understand and use this leverage. I don't mean that they have to treat him unfairly, just that whatever the fair salary range is for Marner, they shouldn't have go to the top of it.

If Marner's ego isn't happy with the offer and is willing to lose money in order to leave, so be it.

 

[4thline]

Kane is the best comparable, but that was a while ago now too. I think RFAs have been getting paid more money in recent years, which is another reason why we'll probably see Marner sign higher than any "comprable" out there. Marner's comparables are outdated, and there are none in recent years.

Kane would be the highest recent winger, the rest got dinged by backdiving deals compressing the market and things haven't fully reset yet.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Well we had to overpay to get Matthews done. Also had to give Nylander a bit more than what management probably wanted to do. Not surprised Marner, who has led this team in points for the past two years, wants a massive pay day.

Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 

[MyBudJT]

Kane would be the highest recent winger, the rest got dinged by backdiving deals compressing the market and things haven't fully reset yet.

Yes, but even the Kane contract was 9 years ago. Post-ELC RFAs have started to get paid even more than they would have ten years ago.

 

[Mess]

I agree. Marner is an astonishing talent which to me makes the rare offer sheet scenario more plausible.

With the young stars around the league getting elite money (@ UFA rates) coming out of their ELC contracts as opposed to the former bridge 2nd contract deals and then big money, it makes OS stealing more likely because the changing world..

If Buffalo resigns Eichel at $10 mil X 8 years (@ PPG rate) coming out of his ELC, and McDavid gets $12.5 mil X 8 (for 100-120 points) is an offersheet steal for Marner at $11-$11.5 mil X 7 years (@ 90-100 points) really all that much out of wack $ and contract wise?

Smart GMs are locking up their young studs for 8 years coming out of ELC, so a 7 year attempted OS steal putting that young player right in the bang for your contract buck price range makes an offersheet more likely nowadays as your not breaking the market your following its trending.

PS. Any offersheet includes an overpayment factor as you don't want the current team to match.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Ten years ago (wow it's already been ten years) the Bruins were in the same situation with Kessel. The summer dragged on without any news and the longer it went the more it became clear he wasn't staying in Boston. Frankly, Chiarelli got lucky with how that turned out because they got caught with their pants down. He got lucky because Burke was willing to negotiate in good faith. Similar situation with Hamilton, Edmonton was considering the offer sheet so he was moved to Calgary. The return was poor for a player with his pedigree and upside. The RFA and the acquiring team have the upper hand. It sucks when it's the player that your organization drafted and developed.

Regarding Marner, I think the biggest risk comes from the Islanders and Flyers. Both teams have cap room, are on the upswing, and have strong farm systems so they will have young ELC talent coming up. It's possible but doesn't seem likely that either team will have a Top 10 pick in the near future, especially with a player like Marner in the fold. Even if you get a Top 10 pick, say #7 overall, what are the odds that you get a Marner-level talent? If I were Lamoriello, I'd certainly be willing to move the four 1st rounders for Marner. The Islanders could even pay him McDavid money if they wanted and still have space for Barzal.

The best hope is that Marner really does want to stay in Toronto. If he wants to maximize his salary, it really leaves the
Leafs in a bind.

I dont see Marner leaving Toronto to go to LI.... I think this is just a negotiation tactic and if we play chicken he wont sign an offer sheet.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I mean, right here you've shown why offer sheets are out and provided the basis for a number of trades. Some of those players, or other young talent already contract that'd making signing them + Marner hard, could be part of a trade for Marner. Any team (or at least some teams) willing to sign him for over $10.56m probably values him enough that they'd part with such assets to get his rights.




I'd take all those firsts, yes. But I'd also see look to see if there's mutual advantage in getting ahead of the offer sheet and trading Marner for a couple of 1sts and, say, Pateryn + Zucker (MIN), Kravtsov/Chytil + Skjei (NYR), or Konecny + Gudas (PHL).

Oh I agree that if a team is really thinking about an offer sheet that trade talks are almost inevitable before they go the offer sheet route, and that we should look at that. I'm just of the opinion that the sky isn't falling and we shouldn't cave to baseless demands from Marner, we should play hardball to get him on a Kucherov-esque deal (which to me is still higher than he should get by merit, he isn't as good of a player as Kucherov was when he signed that and has a lot less leverage with 4 RFA years rather than the 1 that Kuch had, and there's no cap inflation to apply because Kuch's deal takes effect next season)

I think it's death by a handful of cuts if you pay all of your RFA's at-or-above the peak of their comparable fields when you have RFA's that are as good as the Leafs. No matter how good the core guys are, they need a supporting cast, and I don't want to end up being Edmonton so if we need to downgrade on Marner to make sure that we have talent around the roster, that's ok with me.

I also think that the extra cap space to shop for a replacement now (Skinner maybe?) plus a handful of high picks will keep the team almost as good now (and we just lost to one of the best 2 teams in the NHL without playing our best, we're very good), while making the team better in the 4-9 years from now window when those picks turn into high-ceiling ELC assets. I'd be fine with this if it comes to pass, despite Marner being a very, very good player.

so, I'm optimistic regardless of this particular outcome

 

[4thline]

Yes, but even the Kane contract was 9 years ago. Post-ELC RFAs have started to get paid even more than they would have ten years ago.

We're predicting it too, but it hasn't happened yet. Matthews was really the 1st major reversion to legacy cap percentages for given term.

 

[MyBudJT]

We're predicting it too, but it hasn't happened yet. Matthews was really the 1st major reversion to legacy cap percentages for given term.

I would put Draisatl and Nylander in that category too.

 

[Erndog]

Yet you expect me to believe this unnamed source that I wouldn't trust?

I'm not saying that its "Joe from Woodbridge" who thinks he has connections because he played ball hockey against some dude who works with Marner's cousin in insurance restoration.

I'm saying it's a guy who has been in the NHL involved in many capacities (coach, front office, tv, radio) with 30+ years experience who speaks to players/GM's daily and has been up for several front office positions in the last couple years.

A lot of people on this site have predisposed biases against certain hockey people. If it was Bob Mckenzie that said it, its "omg!", if its Pierre McGuire its "well Pierre doesn't know anything." I was doing my best to eliminate the biases and just say its a guy who's actually connected.

 

[BlueForever75]

Did Marner camp or Leafs organization that is actually involved in the negotiations stated their price?

Not as far as I know.

Pure speculation from media, just them doing their jobs. But until someone involved in either camp states what is going on. I am going based on what has been said, Marner will be signed prior to July 1st, Marner wants to remain a Leaf, and talks are ongoing and positive right now.

Anyone reporting otherwise doesn't have a clue. Like all of us on this board. Even "Joe from Woodbridge"!!!! Lol

 

[4thline]

I would put Draisatl and Nylander in that category too.

Nylander 8.75% x 6 2x60 points seasons

10ish years ago

Kessel 9.51 x5
Perry 9.39x 5
Ryan 8.59 x 5
Michalek 8.62x 5

 

[Ziggdiezan]

We're predicting it too, but it hasn't happened yet. Matthews was really the 1st major reversion to legacy cap percentages for given term.

Matthews got given very close to the Malkin contract (15.31% x 5 years). Although Malkin gave up far more UFA years as he played in Russia for 2 years after being drafted.

 

[Mess]

I would put Draisatl and Nylander in that category too.

Draistail deal is for 8 years including 4 UFA years, its Matthews deal that is a massive overpayment for just 1 X UFA year.

Now Marner started at wanting the Draisaitl deal last summer of $8.5-9 mil X 8 years, and now since the Matthews contract broke the mold and changed the market by offering top dollar for RFA years without giving up UFA years to get that average its now $10-$11 mil for 5-6 years for Marner the expectation.

 

[BlueForever75]

I don't get why the NHL does not allow team control of drafted players like the MLB or NFL.

MLB has arbitration years after their entry level contract is complete, and keeps players in the organization for 7 years.

NFL has options that can be picked up on rookie deals and then the ability to franchise tag a player for 3 seasons keeping players in organization for 7 years as well.

But the NHL allows rookie contracts run out after 3 years making them a RFA. Hold a team hostage, and possibly sit until they get what they want.

In a cap era, there definitely should be the ability to hold on to drafted players longer. This NHLPA contract needs to be revisited. They either need to increase the spending allowed for teams (Cap), or they need to put rules in place that allow teams to keep their own drafted players longer. No team drafting 1st overall can become a contender in 3 years. Teams need to be given the ability to build a contender.

NHL is broken, lockout solved nothing in the past. If your going to have a cap then change rules. Or else have no cap, and let the teams fend for themselves. Personally I think the NHL would be a better game if we go back to 21 teams like we once had.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I think they'll go either 4 years or 7 years for Marner. 4 years would put him as the only big contract that year, with Rielly extended the year before. A 7 year deal brings him to 2 years after Nylander and Matthews, 1 year after Tavares. Though of course, they could go six years if they think that Tavares will either be gone at that point or have declined enough that he can be available cheap.

Wouldn't that take him straight to UFA? If EvolvingWild got the price curve right (independent of actual AAV) in their model (), then it would look like 4yrs is the worst option, but obviously it could be wrong. Is there really any precedent for that kind of contract for a player of Marner's caliber?

My guess would be that if the sticking point in negotiations is Marner claiming he produces like his final ELC year, and management claiming he produces like his body of work, we'd see a 3yr. If Marner is too expensive on 7-8yr and won't budge, then we'll see a 5 year. But IMO I don't think we'd see a 4 yr contract.

 

[4thline]

Draistail deal is for 8 years including 4 UFA years, its Matthews deal that is a massive overpayment for just 1 X UFA year.

Now Marner started at wanting the Draisaitl deal last summer of $8.5-9 mil X 8 years, and now since the Matthews contract broke the mold and changed the market by offering top dollar for RFA years without giving up UFA years to get that average its now $10-$11 mil for 5-6 years for Marner.

Proven upper echelon stars seeing massive cap percentage jumps from 2nd to 3rd contract isn't really a thing.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander 8.75% x 6 2x60 points seasons

10ish years ago

Kessel 9.51 x5
Perry 9.39x 5
Ryan 8.59 x 5
Michalek 8.62x 5

Wouldn't you say goals count more than points? Why are you using a 2 year point sample? Player peaks count more than 2 year averages. Poor comparables imo.

Nylander U22: 82GP 20G 41P 61GP

Kessel U22: 70GP 36G 60P (42G 70P pace) + signed his contract on a new team because the team he produced for didn't want to sign him to that much.
Perry: U23: 70GP 29G 52P (34G 61P pace) + is a much more physical player and had played an important role on a cup winning team.
Ryan U23: 81GP 35G 71P
Michalek U22: 78GP 26G 66P (27G 69P pace)

Overall, poor comparables IMO.

 

[BlueForever75]

Wouldn't you say goals count more than points? Why are you using a 2 year point sample? Player peaks count more than 2 year averages. Poor comparables imo.

Nylander U22: 82GP 20G 41P 61GP

Kessel U22: 70GP 36G 60P (42G 70P pace) + signed his contract on a new team because the team he produced for didn't want to sign him to that much.
Perry: U23: 70GP 29G 52P (34G 61P pace) + is a much more physical player and had played an important role on a cup winning team.
Ryan U23: 81GP 35G 71P
Michalek U22: 78GP 26G 66P (27G 69P pace)

Overall, poor comparables IMO.

Why are people so bothered with a 22 year old signing a deal that he has. He is still growing into a player, and his contract will be an after thought and bargain in not too long.

Leave Nylander alone. His cap hit is a bargain already when you compare him to 11.34 million dollar players and what they are producing.

Give me a break.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

I don't get why the NHL does not allow team control of drafted players like the MLB or NFL.

MLB has arbitration years after their entry level contract is complete, and keeps players in the organization for 7 years.

NFL has options that can be picked up on rookie deals and then the ability to franchise tag a player for 3 seasons keeping players in organization for 7 years as well.

But the NHL allows rookie contracts run out after 3 years making them a RFA. Hold a team hostage, and possibly sit until they get what they want.

In a cap era, there definitely should be the ability to hold on to drafted players longer. This NHLPA contract needs to be revisited. They either need to increase the spending allowed for teams (Cap), or they need to put rules in place that allow teams to keep their own drafted players longer. No team drafting 1st overall can become a contender in 3 years. Teams need to be given the ability to build a contender.

NHL is broken, lockout solved nothing in the past. If your going to have a cap then change rules. Or else have no cap, and let the teams fend for themselves. Personally I think the NHL would be a better game if we go back to 21 teams like we once had.

The nhl wanted ufa to be 30 years old like it used to be. The NHL wanted something ELC to be five years or six. The problem is when the NHL locked out in 05 for a cap and roll back they came up with new contract rules. In 2012 they wanted those changes but the NHLPA held firm and was able to get Seven year deals instead of Five the NHL wanted. The NHLPA said f*** no to 5 year elc as well.

I think the system is fine. If you look At the MLB those players play for peanuts during team control. This past ufa season was a shit show as GMS figured out paying ufas big bucks was dumb when the league was trending younger. If anything MLB needs a cap and contract rules similar to the NHL

 

[81Leafs50]

WHY GOD WHY??? WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP REFERRING TO OTHER CONTRACTS AND REPEAT OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER ..... this and that state dont have any tax. "calculate the net".

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE WORLD TODAY.

Can no one do simple math?

simple as pie....

Mark Stone AAV $9,500,000 USD
No state tax in Nevada (TRUE)
Federal tax for someone living in Nevada (Effective Tax Rate) 36.59%

SO Mark Stone pays $3,476,250 in FEDERAL TAXES = $5,794,340 USD TAKE HOME PAY.

IN ONTARIO
Mark Stone AAV $9,500,000 USD (is $12,856,682.50 CAD)
Salary $12,856,682
Federal tax deduction - $4,219,979
Provincial tax deduction - $2,624,960
CPP deductions - $2,594
EI deductions - $858
Total tax - $6,848,391
Net pay * $6,008,287 CAD

NOW the comparison:
$5,794,340 USD
$6,008,287 CAD

its a difference of $1,833,396.12 if both values are converted to CAD.

Please stop talking about no tax states. Its NOT a huge seller when you make USD and live in Canada. Plus players have all sorts of ways to save on taxes and save millions over their careers. Agents, lawyers, and accountants, are very very smart people.

I personally hope the Leafs let Marner sign an offer sheet or trade him. Offer sheet gets you 4 1sts and a trade gets you 4 pieces.

After that the Leafs can use the money saved on Marner to sign Panarin or Karlsson or Trouba.

WIN-WIN for Leafs.

 

[Sypher04]

Draistail deal is for 8 years including 4 UFA years, its Matthews deal that is a massive overpayment for just 1 X UFA year.

Now Marner started at wanting the Draisaitl deal last summer of $8.5-9 mil X 8 years, and now since the Matthews contract broke the mold and changed the market by offering top dollar for RFA years without giving up UFA years to get that average its now $10-$11 mil for 5-6 years for Marner the expectation.

There was never any actual credible news of the 8x9 thing. Pure hearsay

 

[4thline]

Wouldn't you say goals count more than points? Why are you using a 2 year point sample? Player peaks count more than 2 year averages. Poor comparables imo.



Overall, poor comparables IMO.

They're great comparables. Poor equivalents. Those are different words. Too many people on this board think that to be comparable things need to be equal.

 

[Sypher04]

WHY GOD WHY??? WHY DO PEOPLE KEEP REFERRING TO OTHER CONTRACTS AND REPEAT OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER ..... this and that state dont have any tax. "calculate the net".

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE WORLD TODAY.

Can no one do simple math?

simple as pie....

Mark Stone AAV $9,500,000 USD
No state tax in Nevada (TRUE)
Federal tax for someone living in Nevada (Effective Tax Rate) 36.59%

SO Mark Stone pays $3,476,250 in FEDERAL TAXES = $5,794,340 USD TAKE HOME PAY.

IN ONTARIO
Mark Stone AAV $9,500,000 USD (is $12,856,682.50 CAD)
Salary $12,856,682
Federal tax deduction - $4,219,979
Provincial tax deduction - $2,624,960
CPP deductions - $2,594
EI deductions - $858
Total tax - $6,848,391
Net pay * $6,008,287 CAD

NOW the comparison:
$5,794,340 USD
$6,008,287 CAD

its a difference of $1,833,396.12 if both values are converted to CAD.

Please stop talking about no tax states. Its NOT a huge seller when you make USD and live in Canada. Plus players have all sorts of ways to save on taxes and save millions over their careers. Agents, lawyers, and accountants, are very very smart people.

I personally hope the Leafs let Marner sign an offer sheet or trade him. Offer sheet gets you 4 1sts and a trade gets you 4 pieces.

After that the Leafs can use the money saved on Marner to sign Panarin or Karlsson or Trouba.

WIN-WIN for Leafs.

You tell people taxes don't matter then try to justify it using canadian vs us dollars as your basis? What kind of nonsense is this...

The exchange is completely irrelevant. Converting US money to Canadian is the exact same amount of wealth just in a different currency. And all nhl players are paid in USD

 

[Clark4Ever]

Pierre knows stuff, but this is still just an opinion. I don't see a reason why he deserves that much more than any player with a similar case does.

The issue is that the existing comparables are based on lower salary cap figures in past years. We don't know what the comparables are for the other RFAs in Marner's class because no one has signed with their respective clubs yet.

Not to mention, we already know Marner's camp is hell bent on using Matthews' contract as a comparable based on the Leafs internal salary structure.

It seems outrageous, but I can't see this getting done for under a 11 million dollar AAV unless it's a short term deal.