Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[ACC1224]

Marner has no desire to leave, the offer sheet stuff is not an issue.
Everyone knows this. A deal will be done once they can figure out how everyone can save face.

 

[Erndog]

Was he a former assistant GM of the Leafs as he told me the same thing. He is a lawyer am I correct

no.

It was Pierre McGuire.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Where are the Point threads? Tampa is in a similar cap situation and Point had a much better season than Marner.

Point is a PPG C who is an insta match for Tampa. Marner is a PPG W on a team with multiple other Cs making big bucks. If kucherov were the one for contract instead of Point, you’d see a topic

 

[diceman934]

no.

It was Pierre McGuire.

Well he would know and he is not the only one stating the same things. Pierre talks with many GM anyone dismisses what he says is a fool. Especially about players and teams that want players.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Point is a PPG C who is an insta match for Tampa. Marner is a PPG W on a team with multiple other Cs making big bucks. If kucherov were the one for contract instead of Point, you’d see a topic

Tampa can't afford to match a 11-12 million dollar offer sheet straight up, and that's ignoring the fact that they'd still need money for 2F and 2D.

 

[mr grieves]

When did they start recording the stat? who had more G/60 than ovechkin from 2005-6 through 2007-8? I don't have a stat for G/60 from back then but I know Ovi had 20+ goaLs more than anyone else over his elc.

They've been recording even-strength goals separate from powerplay goals for a good long time now. What Matthews did over the course of his ELC is damn-near unprecedented (Ovi beats his per-game rate by a hair and had no injuries). He's certainly the best goal scorer of his generation and will likely end up among the greats, after adjusting for era.

 

[A1LeafNation]

What a ridiculous take. Marner is easily 3M better than Willy

I don't agree. Not over the next 5 years.

Seems like most takes on this are recency bias takes.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Tampa can't afford to match a 11-12 million dollar offer sheet straight up, and that's ignoring the fact that they'd still need money for 2F and 2D.

Again, Point is a #1C and teams are going to go balls to the wall to keep those guys. Marner is a 1W and those guys are routinely viewed as less important and potentially able to pry away from a team because they might not want to pay a wing that much money given their other needs.

Basically, there is the potential that Toronto might not want to match Marner's offer so they can get the picks. That is why everyone is laser focused on him. Also, Toronto needs badly to re-balance their top heavy lineup.

But hey, the real answer you want to get is everyone hates Toronto, so there you go.

 

[mr grieves]

The stats don't go far back enough to include Ovechkin's ELC, so I also assume he's the last player to achieve the feat. Makes Matthews the only player in the last decade, and the only Center since Who Knows?

They don't record the G/60 stat as such, but you can figure out, since the NHL has been recording EV/PP/PK ice-time since the 90s.

Ovi had 101 EV goals in 3840 5v5 minutes (from NHL). That's 1.58 G/60.

Matthew had 86 goals in 3317 min., or 1.56 G/60.

 

[Menzinger]

A few thoughts:

Yes, it has felt like Dreger is the biggest cheerleader for a Marner overpayment by far. His reporting has had a little odour to it where Marner is concerned.

If the quote above was about an unsigned Matthews I would be worried. Whew. Glad we locked up that guy because he WOULD have been offered the moon.

If the quote above is true:

Ferris and Paul Marner have misjudged how fragile Leaf-fan love is. This could poison the mood for Mitch here.

Ferris and Paul Marner Amaya also have misjudged where Mitch fits on the scale of RFAs this year. I love the kid but if you were giving up 4 firsts as a GM, you may pick someone else, or not do it at all.

Ferris and Paul Marner May have misjudged the will of Brendan Shanahan. Kyle or on Kyle, if they go on a publicity tour I believe he will be out of Toronto.

But in reality:

The kid will get signed and this planted Dreger trial balloon will forgotten. (Except for how it impacts his term on this deal, as management wont want him getting to UFA soon with that attitude.)

Its interesting there does seem to be a divide between Marners father/Agent vs Marner.

After the dad was quoted while venting to the media he promptly deleted his Twitter account. And after Ferris ran his mouth during that radio interview he was forced the very next day, tail between his legs to walk back exactly what he said.

Marner has zero stomach for the slightest it of public scrutiny and criticism. This is a kid whose been showered with public adoration since he was in junior's. It's a pretty dramatic shift when you start getting trashed on social media and in the press. I doubt he will be willing to go through a nasty public spat with the team

 

[Duke Silver]

Again, Point is a #1C and teams are going to go balls to the wall to keep those guys. Marner is a 1W and those guys are routinely viewed as less important and potentially able to pry away from a team because they might not want to pay a wing that much money given their other needs.

Basically, there is the potential that Toronto might not want to match Marner's offer so they can get the picks. That is why everyone is laser focused on him. Also, Toronto needs badly to re-balance their top heavy lineup.

But hey, the real answer you want to get is everyone hates Toronto, so there you go.

Tampa's in a worse position than we are when it comes to fitting it all in. I'd argue they're more at risk of having a player poached than we are, due to available cap space.

Slightly unrelated but I feel it would be smart for us to allow Point to sign first before putting forward our best offer to Mitch.

 

[IBeL34f]

They don't record the G/60 stat as such, but you can figure out, since the NHL has been recording EV/PP/PK ice-time since the 90s.

Ovi had 101 EV goals in 3840 5v5 minutes (from NHL). That's 1.58 G/60.

Matthew had 86 goals in 3317 min., or 1.56 G/60.

Thank you! I was going to do the work later, but now I don't have to

That's actually quite a bit closer than even I would have assumed.

(EDIT: Didn't realize you were looking at 5v5 only - I imagine including PPG skews things in Ovi's favour quite a bit, which makes sense.)

 

[Menzinger]

Make a list of teams that actually have cap space to sign Marner. Then subtract the ones that Marner would have zero interest in joining (ie Arizona). Then subtract the teams that would likely have interest in offering one (ie the Avs are often mentioned as a possibilty, but folks need to realize is that whatever they'd offer Marner they'd be forced to pay rantanen, and so they'd be paying 22+ miion in two wingers.... ain't happening).

The offersheet is a bluff

 

[Martin Skoula]

Again, Point is a #1C and teams are going to go balls to the wall to keep those guys. Marner is a 1W and those guys are routinely viewed as less important and potentially able to pry away from a team because they might not want to pay a wing that much money given their other needs.

Basically, there is the potential that Toronto might not want to match Marner's offer so they can get the picks. That is why everyone is laser focused on him. Also, Toronto needs badly to re-balance their top heavy lineup.

But hey, the real answer you want to get is everyone hates Toronto, so there you go.

What does Tampa's balls to the wall situation look like? First they need to clear 4+ million just to match the offer sheet. Then they need to find a way to turn 0 million into 2D and 2F.

What's my worst case scenario offer sheeting Point? I get a #1C for picks or Tampa has to run top heavy for the remainder of their cup window.

Toronto doesn't match Marner's offer sheet at a price point that would make him badly overpaid. If overpaying a winger by 2+ mil and giving up 4 unprotected 1sts for the privilege is somehow a win, go for it I guess.

Also it's not everyone out to get Toronto, but you have to admit we definitely have the most crazy ex's on these boards. No one gets excited about things potentially going bad in Tampa.

 

[Menzinger]

It's weird to me that so many of the same posters who were livid that Nylander got arguably around $500K too much for his comparables, and Matthews got $1M too much compared to his, are somehow fine with Marner getting $2M more than his comparables.

Personally, I think all of these players are worth more than people seem to think. I mean, it's important to differentiate what players are worth and what they can make a case for. In terms of the former, I think all of these could live up to their contracts and more if they were given the kind of minutes, especially on the PP, that other top players get.

We're going to be leaning more on them going forward, and I expect them to blow most of those comparables out of the water.

It makes zero sense. All it boils down is "overpay my favorite player or else".

All the concern for the teams cap situation just disappeared into thin air suppose

 

[Menzinger]

Yes, but even the Kane contract was 9 years ago. Post-ELC RFAs have started to get paid even more than they would have ten years ago.

Not as much as youd think if you look at cap% instead of total money.

 

[ACC1224]

Its interesting there does seem to be a divide between Marners father/Agent vs Marner.

After the dad was quoted while venting to the media he promptly deleted his Twitter account. And after Ferris ran his mouth during that radio interview he was forced the very next day, tail between his legs to walk back exactly what he said.

Marner has zero stomach for the slightest it of public scrutiny and criticism. This is a kid whose been showered with public adoration since he was in junior's. It's a pretty dramatic shift when you start getting trashed on social media and in the press. I doubt he will be willing to go through a nasty public spat with the team

ding ding

 

[Randy Randerson]

This is more or less what I think. I'm pretty optimistic here, more than with Nylander, because if the Leafs don't get Marner for something sane (i.e. ~$9.5m on a long-term deal or an inflated but manageable bridge -- $8m?), they can trade him. And, if there are teams willing to sign him for what his side is demanding, the return on Marner would be a LOT higher than what was considered with Nylander.

Instead of a comparably talented and aged defenseman, negotiations start there. Or high-end forward prospect, decent defensive upgrade, and picks, one of which would be a first. That, imo, isn't a bad outcome for the Leafs in the short or longterm.

The difference this time, I think, is that the Leafs have to be serious about holding a line -- whatever it is they calculate it must be (I'd guess $9.5m)--and willing to trade him if that won't work for his side.

yep, I agree, Dubas should absolutely play chicken with Marner and be prepared for the (probably unlikely) case that he signs an offer sheet. The offer sheet compensation or trade value are high enough with Marner that we will be fine as a team regardless of what happens.

I would also be telling Marner that because of how the cap mechanism works for signing after the start of the season, if it's not done before game 1 that he's sitting for the year - if he sat out until December like Nylander then signed a $9-10M deal the cap hit next year would be like $13-14M and there's no way that would work for us in 19/20.

I'd also be fine with like an $8-8.5M bridge deal, but I am a little weary of that being either 4 years because then he's a UFA or 5 years because that's when Matthews is up. $8Mx3 or $8.5-9Mx6 I'd be happy with

 

[Menzinger]

yep, I agree, Dubas should absolutely play chicken with Marner and be prepared for the (probably unlikely) case that he signs an offer sheet. The offer sheet compensation or trade value are high enough with Marner that we will be fine as a team regardless of what happens.

I would also be telling Marner that because of how the cap mechanism works for signing after the start of the season, if it's not done before game 1 that he's sitting for the year - if he sat out until December like Nylander then signed a $9-10M deal the cap hit next year would be like $13-14M and there's no way that would work for us in 19/20.

I'd also be fine with like an $8-8.5M bridge deal, but I am a little weary of that being either 4 years because then he's a UFA or 5 years because that's when Matthews is up. $8Mx3 or $8.5-9Mx6 I'd be happy with

If Marner wants to be paid like top of the league 1cs give him a three or four year bridge to prove it. If he does the Leafs gladly pay him.

Helps the team get through next seasons cap crunch too.

 

[MyBudJT]

I don't agree. Not over the next 5 years.

Seems like most takes on this are recency bias takes.

Recency bias is not involved at all:

U20 season:
Nylander: 22GP 6G 13P (on pace for 22G and 48P)
Marner: 77GP 19G 61P (on pace for 20G and 65P)
Matthews: 82GP 40G 69P

Marner shows he is closer to Matthews than Nylander

U21 season:
Nylander: 81GP 22G 61P
Marner: 82GP 22G 69P
Matthews: 62GP 34G 63P ( on pace for 45G and 83P)

Marner outproduced Matthews AND Nylander (albiet, Matthews had less games). Probably a little closer to Nylander than Matthews.


U22 season:
Nylander: 82GP 20G 61P
Marner: 82GP 26G 94P
Matthews: 68GP 37G 73P (on pace for 45G and 88P)

Marner is much closer to Matthews than he is Nylander, and arguably surpassed both.

Marner proved to be much closer to Matthews caliber than he is Nylander caliber throughout his ELC years.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Marner is an incredibly valuable asset, it's seems highly unlikely there wouldn't be multiple teams bidding for his services so I doubt teams are just going to sit back presuming his ass will even get to the point when they can offersheet him

If this gets past the draft and Marner isn't signed Dubas should be fired for gross negligence, either he signs before the draft or he gets traded on the draft floor but there is no way in hell we can let this drag on in our situation

You weren’t calling for Nylander to be traded in the same manner.in fact if I recall you were one of the posters who were ok with him holding out because the leafs were lowballing him.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If Marneres 3 year cost is under 8m, sign me up. Still is an RFA at the end of the deal, we have Matthews/Nylander for an additonal 2 seasons, and Tavares for 4 more before we need to worry about contracts.

I think the most important thing we can do is stagger the big contracts. The newest one will be at value, and the ones half way done will be either good value or regualr value depending on the cap increases.
If Everyone is up at once (like now) than every contract is just the regular value, and 3 years in they should be good deals, 5 years really good, and going into the final years steals.

But if they’re all up at once, they’re all good value the couple years before you have to resign

 

[4thline]

yep, I agree, Dubas should absolutely play chicken with Marner and be prepared for the (probably unlikely) case that he signs an offer sheet. The offer sheet compensation or trade value are high enough with Marner that we will be fine as a team regardless of what happens.

I would also be telling Marner that because of how the cap mechanism works for signing after the start of the season, if it's not done before game 1 that he's sitting for the year - if he sat out until December like Nylander then signed a $9-10M deal the cap hit next year would be like $13-14M and there's no way that would work for us in 19/20.

I'd also be fine with like an $8-8.5M bridge deal, but I am a little weary of that being either 4 years because then he's a UFA or 5 years because that's when Matthews is up. $8Mx3 or $8.5-9Mx6 I'd be happy with

If that's the case we just need to move Horton and make sure that we keep the 9-10 million clear from the cap. The higher cap number is a per game proxy, but the actual annual cap hit doesn't change

 

[nuck]

yep, I agree, Dubas should absolutely play chicken with Marner and be prepared for the (probably unlikely) case that he signs an offer sheet. The offer sheet compensation or trade value are high enough with Marner that we will be fine as a team regardless of what happens.

I would also be telling Marner that because of how the cap mechanism works for signing after the start of the season, if it's not done before game 1 that he's sitting for the year - if he sat out until December like Nylander then signed a $9-10M deal the cap hit next year would be like $13-14M and there's no way that would work for us in 19/20.

I'd also be fine with like an $8-8.5M bridge deal, but I am a little weary of that being either 4 years because then he's a UFA or 5 years because that's when Matthews is up. $8Mx3 or $8.5-9Mx6 I'd be happy with

Marner is essentially looking for UFA money even though he will cost the signing club four 1sts. If he wants to go past July 1 to test the market it may be Aho, Ranta and Tkachuk are also out there too so it isn't like he will own the market. If he wants over $10M and they can sign Panarin for less the next move is a no brainer but the idea of the top two wingers being Willie and Skinner next season is much less appealing

Dubas doesn't play hardball, he will set the market with Marner.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Marner has no desire to leave, the offer sheet stuff is not an issue.
Everyone knows this. A deal will be done once they can figure out how everyone can save face.

Do the other teams he may be meeting with know this as well?

Or is it a bluff/threat?