Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[Subway Schenn]

Marner has no desire to leave, the offer sheet stuff is not an issue.
Everyone knows this. A deal will be done once they can figure out how everyone can save face.

Exactly. He was born to be a Leaf and he knows it.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

I still come back to $9.5M for 8 years.

That deal puts him with Ovechkin, Stone and Kucherov. Stone and Kucherov had to wait until their 3rd contract. Patrick Kane has 10.5M but he has a hell of a lot of hardware, he also needed to wait until contract #3 for that pay day.

Kucherov had 4.7-4.9M on a 3 year deal so if Marner was fine with $5.25M on a 3 year deal, that works too. I'd honestly prefer to just tell him, $9.5Mish, 8 years, NMC for all the UFA years and you structure it (bonuses, front loaded etc) any way you would like.

Yea except Marner crushes Kucherov's ELC numbers........

Kuch
211 GP, 68 Goals, 81 Assists = 149 Points = 0.71 PPG

Marner
241 GP, 67 Goals, 157 Assists = 224 Points = 0.93 PPG

Which is about 30% increase in production. Kuch was a year younger though. Which matters quite a bit at that age.

 

[4thline]

Yea except Marner crushes Kucherov's ELC numbers........

Kuch
211 GP, 68 Goals, 81 Assists = 149 Points = 0.71 PPG

Marner
241 GP, 67 Goals, 157 Assists = 224 Points = 0.93 PPG

Which is about 30% increase in production. Kuch was a year younger though. Which matters quite a bit at that age.

Kuch was a year older

 

[Brobust]

I guess his agent told them how much he made...not!

What a joke. They have no idea and it is propaganda spread by Dubas to attempt to get fans in his side.

Propaganda?

LOL. You're a joke. Not wanting Marner to be the highest paid winger in the game is listening to propaganda?

Marner fans undergo a lobotomy or something? This is a new level of idiocy.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Kane's 88 point (U22) season put him 9th in league scoring, Marner was 11th this. Scoring went down for a while before going back up. And it's not like Marner's 17 in 20 playoff games is anything to sneeze at. Even if you say "Kane but a little less" you're still looking at 8.5-9 x 5, then adding to extend.

I'd go off more recent comparables.

(Leon, Stone, Kucherov) - 2/3 have outproduced him and on their 3rd contracts got paid this money. Stone is arguably the best defensive winger in the league right now.

It would be 9.5M for 8 years, after that Mitch can sit. Unlike the Nylander situation, we need to let Marner sit the entire season rather then cave at the last second. Time to stop getting taken to the cleaners.

 

[Brobust]

Yea except Marner crushes Kucherov's ELC numbers........

Kuch
211 GP, 68 Goals, 81 Assists = 149 Points = 0.71 PPG

Marner
241 GP, 67 Goals, 157 Assists = 224 Points = 0.93 PPG

Which is about 30% increase in production. Kuch was a year younger though. Which matters quite a bit at that age.

Yeah, and Kuch was bridged for under $5 million and then signed for less than $10 million.

Marner looks incredibly selfish no matter who you compare him to. His side has taken an incredibly unreasonable position that may destroy the team and LEAFS fans are on his side?

 

[Rare Jewel]

Nothing to do with his credibility

His words were I believe

Most times if he hears something

It’s I’m hearing that negotiations etc etc

But not this time

Key words being I believe

Which is JUST his opinion

Ok, but again what's his advantage by offering that up? He does risk agitating Leafs management by the story and his own credibility if it has no basis of truth.

It seems as if he was tipped into that opinion, and that Leafs management are aware of that possibility.

 

[Brobust]

Marner has no desire to leave, the offer sheet stuff is not an issue.
Everyone knows this. A deal will be done once they can figure out how everyone can save face.

Sorry, but this is the first time I'm hearing of an RFA actually visiting other teams. The first time.

Mitch Marner does not care about being a leaf.

 

[4thline]

I'd go off more recent comparables.

(Leon, Stone, Kucherov) - 2/3 have outproduced him and on their 3rd contracts got paid this money. Stone is arguably the best defensive winger in the league right now.

It would be 9.5M for 8 years, after that Mitch can sit. Unlike the Nylander situation, we need to let Marner sit the entire season rather then cave at the last second. Time to stop getting taken to the cleaners.

Stone had like 9 points in 20 games at Marner's age. Kucherov just had his first 60 point season. Marner's not done growing as a player with his top U22 performance comparables being the likes of Hall and Kane. Lot's of hardware there. All three of Kucherov/Stone/Drai signed in limited tax jurisdictions, Drai immediately after McDavid's sweetheart stunted the market.

A line has to be drawn somewhere, but drawing it in the wrong place and hissy fitting away a Ross/Hart level player because of emotions and bad analysis is a far worse outcome than a couple hundred k in capspace. We get new cap space every year. Stars are hard to replace.

 

[The CyNick]

Most people in the media have been saying other guys are more likely to be targets for OS than Marner. Point is the name I hear brought up the most.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

What does Tampa's balls to the wall situation look like? First they need to clear 4+ million just to match the offer sheet. Then they need to find a way to turn 0 million into 2D and 2F.

What's my worst case scenario offer sheeting Point? I get a #1C for picks or Tampa has to run top heavy for the remainder of their cup window.

Toronto doesn't match Marner's offer sheet at a price point that would make him badly overpaid. If overpaying a winger by 2+ mil and giving up 4 unprotected 1sts for the privilege is somehow a win, go for it I guess.

Also it's not everyone out to get Toronto, but you have to admit we definitely have the most crazy ex's on these boards. No one gets excited about things potentially going bad in Tampa.

It's also because Tampa has 5.8M that they could deal pretty easily (Callahan), another close to 5 for JT Miller, and other similar pieces that can be moved for relatively small assets and won't dramatically kill the roster to lose. Whereas Toronto has BIG personnel needs on top of what they already have... and guys like Johnsson and Kapanen up for deals at the same time.

The two scenarios are very very different. Tampa has guys they can excise from the roster to give themselves relief or land some good futures who won't kill them. Toronto's players with good value are the guys they desperately want to keep. And then a couple of years down the line, they've got Morgan Rielly who is going to need a bookoo bucks extension.

Tampa is a mature team with fat they can cut away that won't wreck them. Toronto is a team in its competitive infancy with big time needs and a lesser amount of payroll fat to trim or that is trimmable (like Zaitsev is an anchor)

 

[MyBudJT]

Yeah, and Kuch was bridged for under $5 million and then signed for less than $10 million.

Marner looks incredibly selfish no matter who you compare him to. His side has taken an incredibly unreasonable position that may destroy the team and LEAFS fans are on his side?

Kucherov was bridged at 6.53% of the cap in a non-taxed state.

6.54% in todays NHL is 5.4 mil. Given that is a non-tax state, thats more like 6.25M... and given that Marner produced so much more than Kucherov did at a younger age, a Marner bridge should be about 3 yrs x 8 million.

At that point, I'd rather try and get him for 6 yrs x 10 million.

 

[The CyNick]

The stats don't go far back enough to include Ovechkin's ELC, so I also assume he's the last player to achieve the feat. Makes Matthews the only player in the last decade, and the only Center since Who Knows?

He is a two-way beast, when he wants to be. There was something real wrong with his motor this year, which I attribute mostly to his injuries and lingering pains, given everything I've seen over his entire (albeit short) career.
I assume a pro scout told you Rielly was nothing more than a #4-6 D?

He's yet to have a major injury. Everything he's had is relatively minor in the context of a physical sport. If those relatively minor injuries screws up his motor as you said, then he's going to be a disaster when he gets a real serious injury.

He's just lazy. That's the problem. He has another gear that he goes into from time to time when he feels like it. I loathe those types of players, but that's what he appears to be. Needs to grow up for this team to have success with him as the leader. Compare that to Marner who finds other ways contribute when the puck isn't going into the net for him, as rare as that is.

As for Rielly, I know there's a narrative on here about what I said about him in the past. I don't believe I ever once projected what I thought he would be in the future. I just stated at the time he was ineffective as a top 4 D based on his liabilities in his own zone coupled with his lack of offensive production in comparison (ie you can still be a disaster in your own zone but if you're a point a game you're considered effective overall). Which was 100% accurate. This past year Babcock smartly paired him with a rock in Hainsey and he's flourished, especially offensively (still has warts in his own zone). I hope he continues to produce if he loses Hollywood as a partner next year. Time will tell though.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Sorry, but this is the first time I'm hearing of an RFA actually visiting other teams. The first time.

Mitch Marner does not care about being a leaf.

Is it a fact that this happened, or is it just speculation based on something Dreger or someone like that said?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Is it a fact that this happened, or is it just speculation based on something Dreger or someone like that said?

Potato potato

 

[WTFMAN99]

Stone had like 9 points in 20 games at Marner's age. Kucherov just had his first 60 point season. Marner's not done growing as a player with his top U22 performance comparables being the likes of Hall and Kane. Lot's of hardware there. All three of Kucherov/Stone/Drai signed in limited tax jurisdictions, Drai immediately after McDavid's sweetheart stunted the market.

A line has to be drawn somewhere, but drawing it in the wrong place and hissy fitting away a Ross/Hart level player because of emotions and bad analysis is a far worse outcome than a couple hundred k in capspace. We get new cap space every year. Stars are hard to replace.

Mitch has no hardware and the team hasn't won anything with him yet. Stone and Kucherov are the top dog RWers right now, we're looking at what they've done in the last 2-3 years. Kucherov just put up 128 points. Marner gets significantly more endorsement opportunities in Toronto.

Draisitl isn't in a limited tax jurisdiction, Leon is about a year older and just killed it this year with 105 pts, again also the ability to play centre.

The line would be firmly drawn at $9.5M x 8 years (for me), compensate him like he's one of the best wingers in the league.

8 years a 9.5M or 3 years at 5.25M. Let him sit out as long as he likes

 

[IBeL34f]

He's yet to have a major injury. Everything he's had is relatively minor in the context of a physical sport. If those relatively minor injuries screws up his motor as you said, then he's going to be a disaster when he gets a real serious injury.

He's just lazy. That's the problem. He has another gear that he goes into from time to time when he feels like it. I loathe those types of players, but that's what he appears to be. Needs to grow up for this team to have success with him as the leader. Compare that to Marner who finds other ways contribute when the puck isn't going into the net for him, as rare as that is.

As for Rielly, I know there's a narrative on here about what I said about him in the past. I don't believe I ever once projected what I thought he would be in the future. I just stated at the time he was ineffective as a top 4 D based on his liabilities in his own zone coupled with his lack of offensive production in comparison (ie you can still be a disaster in your own zone but if you're a point a game you're considered effective overall). Which was 100% accurate. This past year Babcock smartly paired him with a rock in Hainsey and he's flourished, especially offensively (still has warts in his own zone). I hope he continues to produce if he loses Hollywood as a partner next year. Time will tell though.

He's had surgery this very off-season to remove plates that were causing him back pain as a result of a previously broken leg, and has also had a concussion and a separated shoulder - How is none of that major? Methinks you're judging a player too harshly based on post-injury play as opposed to the dominance he's most frequently displayed when fully healthy.

As for Rielly, no, that was not 100% accurate. He was a top-pairing D coming into this season and elevated himself to undisputed #1 status while playing with a 38-year-old Hainsey* that people thought was over-used last year.

(*For the record, I've been a fan of Hainsey's in his time here - I don't want to take away from how good he's been, but let's not pretend he's the reason Rielly's turned out the way he has.)

 

[Randy Randerson]

If Marner wants to be paid like top of the league 1cs give him a three or four year bridge to prove it. If he does the Leafs gladly pay him.

Helps the team get through next seasons cap crunch too.

ya I could see a bridge happening, but I think if he wants to be paid like a 100pt center he needs to be a 100pt center, or quite a bit better than that as a winger. As good as he is, wingers don't have the same impact

If that's the case we just need to move Horton and make sure that we keep the 9-10 million clear from the cap. The higher cap number is a per game proxy, but the actual annual cap hit doesn't change

when I ran it on capfriendly, we were a few hundred thousand above the cap if we traded Brown, signed Kapanen & Johnsson to bridge deals in the mid $2M's, used Dermott as a top 4D and filled the winger & bottom pair D spots with ELC guys from the Marlies and that included the relief from Horton. I think I had Marner at either $9.5M or $10M in that one, so I think if he holds out into the season we just won't have the space to sign him barring a big AAV guy getting injured

Marner is essentially looking for UFA money even though he will cost the signing club four 1sts. If he wants to go past July 1 to test the market it may be Aho, Ranta and Tkachuk are also out there too so it isn't like he will own the market. If he wants over $10M and they can sign Panarin for less the next move is a no brainer but the idea of the top two wingers being Willie and Skinner next season is much less appealing

Dubas doesn't play hardball, he will set the market with Marner.

I think Panarin will get $10-11M, and he should actually be a guy to set the high water mark as a top-ish tier winger with UFA leverage. I guess there's been a trend towards paying guys earlier in their careers but I don't think it will come to guys making whatever they want just because they want to.

We'll see what Dubas does, he made a small concession to Nylander probably because he was the first of the three and thought that he might have a chance at a cup before the big contracts hit like Chicago did, he made a larger concession the Matthews who's really the straw that will stir the drink if this team is going to win cups, and Marner I think he's in a much better position because the team still has star power without him and the combo of picks & cap space would fill the void left by Marner if that's what it comes to

I agree that the step down from Marner to Skinner would be less appealing, but that's still a pretty good team and Skinner won't cost what Marner will so maybe that lets us bet on Johnsson for a longer term contract that may become a steal, plus the picks you get from Marner would probably give us better reinforcements to sustain the contention window. I'd live with this if it happened honestly Skinner at $8Mx7 years + 4 1sts for Marner wouldn't be a bad open market trade in my view

 

[The CyNick]

Kucherov was bridged at 6.53% of the cap in a non-taxed state.

6.54% in todays NHL is 5.4 mil. Given that is a non-tax state, thats more like 6.25M... and given that Marner produced so much more than Kucherov did at a younger age, a Marner bridge should be about 3 yrs x 8 million.

At that point, I'd rather try and get him for 6 yrs x 10 million.

New US TV money will kick in for the 21-22 season. That's when you want to be a free agent, or as close to it as possible. The next time will be 2027 for the next CDN deal, which is what the McDavid camp went by.

Marner should be looking for $10M*3 or the Matthews deal but make it 11.616 for fun. I don't think the Leafs can stomach the number on a 7 or 8 year deal. I wouldn't go less than $13M if I were him.

 

[Kiwi]

You weren’t calling for Nylander to be traded in the same manner.in fact if I recall you were one of the posters who were ok with him holding out because the leafs were lowballing him.

This isn't last year genius, our cap situation is completely different and we cannot react the same way as we did last season

Our cap situation is dire, our defense is thin and we've got 2 other RFA'S to resign which are almost impossible to sort out without the Marner situation clarified

He's entitled to fight for every dollar possible but if he's going to be an absolute prick (like flying to other teams trying to solicit offer-sheets and slow rolling negotiations) we're well within our rights to trade him so we can actually sort out a team for next season

He decided to go last, we're short of money, he's getting squeezed, cry me a bloody river

Anything else that's obvious you need me to explain?

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Kuch was a year older

My bad.

Even more impressive for Marner than.....

 

[Rare Jewel]

Kucherov was bridged at 6.53% of the cap in a non-taxed state.

6.54% in todays NHL is 5.4 mil. Given that is a non-tax state, thats more like 6.25M... and given that Marner produced so much more than Kucherov did at a younger age, a Marner bridge should be about 3 yrs x 8 million.

At that point, I'd rather try and get him for 6 yrs x 10 million.

$8m is too high on a bridge IMO. Also I don't see how $2m more gets you 50% more term. At that rate his AAV is very close to Matthews which does the team no favours.

I'd have a bit of an issue with his AAV being higher than Nylander's on bridge.

 

[ACC1224]

Guess he'd be sitting out the year

Centre > Winger

That's not going to happen

 

[ACC1224]

Sorry, but this is the first time I'm hearing of an RFA actually visiting other teams. The first time.

Mitch Marner does not care about being a leaf.

Which Teams has he visited?

 

[WTFMAN99]

That's not going to happen

Odds are Dubas f***s up as per usual.