Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[IBeL34f]

Which Teams has he visited?

I'm assuming just the Leafs - Any others and that's some serious tampering.

 

[ACC1224]

Odds are Dubas ****s up as per usual.

I'll shoot you a message when I have time, let you in on something.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah, and Kuch was bridged for under $5 million and then signed for less than $10 million.

Marner looks incredibly selfish no matter who you compare him to. His side has taken an incredibly unreasonable position that may destroy the team and LEAFS fans are on his side?

Agreed, IF these rumors are coming from Marner's camp directly.

Who knows with these insiders now though, most of the time they frame personal opinion like it came from some source.

 

[MyBudJT]

$8m is too high on a bridge IMO. Also I don't see how $2m more gets you 50% more term. At that rate his AAV is very close to Matthews which does the team no favours.

I'd have a bit of an issue with his AAV being higher than Nylander's on bridge.

Fair enough. I was just trying to come up with an approximate figure based on the Kucherov comparable.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'll shoot you a message when I have time, let you in on something.

Appreciate it as always my man.

Just want to see what is best for this team, if everyone is going for a grand slam with their contract negotiations, I have a feeling there won' be a cup to celebrate.

 

[Kiwi]

Is it a fact that this happened, or is it just speculation based on something Dreger or someone like that said?

It would seem that this was "leaked" to Dreger because as much as I dislike Dreger I seriously doubt he's just leapt to an RFA visiting other organizations to solicit offer-sheets all on his own, I believe it's a negotiation tactic myself

Just the treat of that being out there is pretty bloody aggressive

Which Teams has he visited?

It's was put out there that when he's allowed to which is the 26th of June he will

You can call Dreger a liar but this does seem very specific

 

[Rare Jewel]

I'll shoot you a message when I have time, let you in on something.

What was the first offer then?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Not my image, someone else actually had this but difference is bigger then I would have thought.

 

[kb]

Ppg. I guess you never knew that Marner out produced Mathews I guess you now know. Your welcome

212 games, 205 points

241 games, 224 points.

Try again.

 

[kb]

View attachment 232119

Not my image, someone else actually had this but difference is bigger then I would have thought.

Tavares doing what Tavares always does. Make his linemates significantly better.

 

[Kiwi]

View attachment 232119

Not my image, someone else actually had this but difference is bigger then I would have thought.

Good players make each other better, unless you have a breakdown on who each guy is playing with when there not together those stats still need some context imo

 

[WTFMAN99]

Tavares doing what Tavares always does. Make his linemates significantly better.

Good players make each other better, unless you have a breakdown on who each guy is playing with when there not together those stats still need some context imo

First thing I would say is it is a relatively small sample size and Marner would likely show better then this if there were more minutes.

The other thing I would say like KB mentioned is that Tavares has a history of getting his linemates paid, Okposo, PAP, Bailey etc. Marner is pretty special though and produced some good numbers before Tavares arrived.

 

[AreBe]

Marner has no desire to leave, the offer sheet stuff is not an issue.
Everyone knows this. A deal will be done once they can figure out how everyone can save face.

I will try to explain this, rather than in the form of an interpretative dance, in the form of a badly written poem

Basket of comparables! Basket of comparables! In the bin with yee! For we are paying for tomorrow's, not yesterday's success! Paying today for yesterday's success - the old way- is now such a disgrace!

Which is why you have an analytics team. The New Way is to pay for tomorrow today and have increasing returns with each expenditure by paying for tomorrow today, rather than getting stuck with the law of diminishing returns, paying for yesterday's success today and tomorrow, our souls filled with sorrow, -we must break free! And never again be stuck with bad contracts by getting older, slower, more injury prone, and weaker, at ever escalating cost and ever decreasing value! We will pay our players today for tomorrow- the new way! Leafs Nation will protest loudly, but we must acknowledge their ignorance as they lament the Nylander contract, and know we are correct in paying today for tomorrow, and in the end, Dubas will show 'em!

You have to consider idiots. You have to consider giving Marner a qualifying offer. You have to consider 4 consecutive first round picks. You have to consider the complete and utter stupidity of a GM offering 4 consecutive first round picks in the salary cap era. You have to like your chances, say, if Edmonton or Ottawa signs him, to take those 4 picks. And you need analytics, because you need to hit on your picks. But if you get 4 consecutive lottery picks from a badly run team with a fool for a GM, you got to think of it- you could really, really set yourself up to win the American Stanley Cup race!

 

[Kiwi]

First thing I would say is it is a relatively small sample size and Marner would likely show better then this if there were more minutes.

The other thing I would say like KB mentioned is that Tavares has a history of getting his linemates paid, Okposo, PAP, Bailey etc. Marner is pretty special though and produced some good numbers before Tavares arrived.

Tavares is one hell of a player, if your centers can carry wingers it does make you question giving guys like Nylander and Marner huge money instead of using that money elsewhere on the roster

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Yeah, and Kuch was bridged for under $5 million and then signed for less than $10 million.

Marner looks incredibly selfish no matter who you compare him to. His side has taken an incredibly unreasonable position that may destroy the team and LEAFS fans are on his side?

Marner had better ELCs than Point or Rantanen, yet 10ish numbers are tossed out for them as well. It's not selfish when most NHL personalities are agreeing on numbers for these players.

I already know that Marner will step in before crap hits the fan. It's already happened for te ELC signing, it will happen again. Marner has a number, and Ferris and his Dad mean a lot less than people are making it out to be.

Marners girlfriend, family, and well over a mil in endorsements are here in the Toronto Area.

Everyone wants to keep using Kuch.... anyone every think maybe Kuch is a F**** bargain? Maybe the exception to the rule?????????

Stone, although a great 2-way player, just signed for Kuch money. Marners numbers are better offensively in most categories. 25yo Stone is barely putting up better offensive numbers than 20yo Marner.
21yo Marner puts up 24 more points, even scores as many goals, as a 26yo who just signed for 9.5.

I love Stone, and he is a top 10 winger all day, every day. One of the best defensively.............. Just pointing out that Marner has a legit argument he deserves more.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Tavares is one hell of a player, if your centers can carry wingers it does make you question giving guys like Nylander and Marner huge money instead of using that money elsewhere on the roster

Some of it is going to be that you don't get to pick what positions your home-grown talent pans out in - you take the best player available at the draft especially in top 10/top 5 scenarios, and who pans out near their ceiling is a game of odds. Once that talent pans out in whatever position it does, you have to pay it appropriately, but there's definitely a position adjustment for the price too. Marner as a center is probably worth the Matthews' contract (well, in the wake of the Matthews' contract anyway, probably none of us think that was a good deal).

Unfortunately (or fortunately?) the Leafs have a disproportionate number of premium talent players

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

How many people here would be surprised if Marner signs in NYI and puts up 70-75 pts without Tavares?

The Tavares effect is real people. The guy is a top 5 center in the NHL and kills it on both ends of the rink.

 

[Stephen]

I get that Marner likely had a chip on his shoulder from growing up as second fiddle to McDavid and overshadowed by Matthews on the Leafs but I wish he didn’t see redemption as taking the Leafs behind the woodshed and asking for a premium on top of a premium, if reports are true.

 

[Stephen]

How many people here would be surprised if Marner signs in NYI and puts up 70-75 pts without Tavares?

The Tavares effect is real people. The guy is a top 5 center in the NHL and kills it on both ends of the rink.

If Marner ends up on the Islanders I’d be pretty happy collecting their 4x first rounders and then stealing Barzal next summer when they’re vulnerable.

 

[Kiwi]

Some of it is going to be that you don't get to pick what positions your home-grown talent pans out in - you take the best player available at the draft especially in top 10/top 5 scenarios, and who pans out near their ceiling is a game of odds. Once that talent pans out in whatever position it does, you have to pay it appropriately, but there's definitely a position adjustment for the price too. Marner as a center is probably worth the Matthews' contract (well, in the wake of the Matthews' contract anyway, probably none of us think that was a good deal).

Unfortunately (or fortunately?) the Leafs have a disproportionate number of premium talent players

You can trade that talent for other talent in a different position though, is 10.5M for Marner a better investment of cap resources than trading him for a high end top pairing defenseman that costs much less? I'd use Nylander as well but I think his value has taken a major hit and I'm against selling low

If Tavares and to a lesser extent Matthews can carry middling wingers you can massively improve the blueline and theoretically improve the overall team

 

[Brobust]

Is it a fact that this happened, or is it just speculation based on something Dreger or someone like that said?

Dreger saying something like that, something that hasn't happened in a very long time, without having a good idea that it would happen would be extremely foolish. That's just my opinion. I do trust Dreger on this. We've seen that Ferriss is extremely talkative with media members.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You can trade that talent for other talent in a different position though, is 10.5M for Marner a better investment of cap resources than trading him for a high end top pairing defenseman that costs much less? I'd use Nylander as well but I think his value has taken a major hit and I'm against selling low

If Tavares and to a lesser extent Matthews can carry middling wingers you can massively improve the blueline and theoretically improve the overall team

I don't disagree with that on either the Marner or Nylander fronts. I do think we overestimate the value of being balanced as a team though as well, overwhelmingly good in one place can make up for being bad in another, but if Seth Jones was available then I'd be listening for sure, I just think that guys on that level don't come available that often.

I think the way that our lines are built, they get a lot of synergy value from not just the talent level of the players but also the archetypes in each position - we're built to enter the zone through the RW a lot with very fast, high possession time RWer's who are fairly pass-first and can either beat the defender around the outside with speed or back them off with speed and turn back to give themselves space to make a pass. Our top 3 centers are all shoot-first, dangerous from within 15 feet of the net without having to touch the puck for long, and or LW's are able to get to the ring-around dump in from the RW and are good secondary pass options for the RW if he gets in clean because they can also score from in tight. Interestingly, Bracco is also very much that archetype of RW so we may have a replacement if we traded one of them or if Kapanen is moved to the left

Ultimately I don't think a team with Andreas Johnsson as it's best winger would be that offensively effective, but we might have some talent to spare on the RW with how good the centers are and if Bracco turns out

 

[Brobust]

Kucherov was bridged at 6.53% of the cap in a non-taxed state.

6.54% in todays NHL is 5.4 mil. Given that is a non-tax state, thats more like 6.25M... and given that Marner produced so much more than Kucherov did at a younger age, a Marner bridge should be about 3 yrs x 8 million.

At that point, I'd rather try and get him for 6 yrs x 10 million.

The whole tax thing has been debunked a whole bunch of times. It's not as big as people make it seem. There are a whole bunch of loopholes to avoid it as well.

 

[Brobust]

Which Teams has he visited?

Dreger said that he will be visiting them post draft, during the week before July 1st.

 

[The CyNick]

I get that Marner likely had a chip on his shoulder from growing up as second fiddle to McDavid and overshadowed by Matthews on the Leafs but I wish he didn’t see redemption as taking the Leafs behind the woodshed and asking for a premium on top of a premium, if reports are true.

Why not blame Matthews the same thing? Tavares too for that matter? Even Nylander?

It's the blinders that people put on here thinking players should play for less to play here.