Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[Doug Gilmour]

I've been out all day and need sparks notes on all the drama today..

Anyone refuting dreger? Anyone believe him?
Additional reports?

I haven’t seen any rebuttals, so someone can correct me if wrong.

I think Dreger is trying to stay relevant in Toronto/NHL and just throwing stuff at the media and fans and hoping for it to stick. At the same time it is Captain Obvious moment because that’s the agent job to to get the best possible deal for his client

 

[biotk]

Would the Leafs match a 10.5m x 5 year contract? And would Marner sign one? It would bring him to age 27 which would be a great time for him to sign a new 7-8 year deal.

Compensation would be two 1sts , one 2nd and one 3rd

The Leafs would probably match because that compensation is not great. Which is why if the Leafs don't think that Marner is worth 10.5Mx5 (and I definitely don't think he is) they should be giving him a deadline of around June 10th and then looking for trades.

 

[trellaine201]

The Leafs would probably match because that compensation is not great. Which is why if the Leafs don't think that Marner is worth 10.5Mx5 (and I definitely don't think he is) they should be giving him a deadline of around June 10th and then looking for trades.

Hmm so any RFA can be traded up until July 1?

 

[ottawa]

I haven’t seen any rebuttals, so someone can correct me if wrong.

I think Dreger is trying to stay relevant in Toronto/NHL and just throwing stuff at the media and fans and hoping for it to stick. At the same time it is Captain Obvious moment because that’s the agent job to to get the best possible deal for his client

Last post here, I promise. But Dreger is relevant (and speculative at the same time)...here's a copy paste of another post I made

Here are some headlines Dregger broke:

Rick Nash to the Rangers
Marcus Kruger to the Golden Knights
Daniel Winnik to the Penguins
James Neal to the Predators
Cam Talbot will be traded (he was)
Curtis Glencross to the Capitals
Jordan Eberle will be traded (he was)
Kevin Shattenkirk will be traded (he was)
Nick Schultz to the Blue Jackets
Mikkel Boedker will be traded (he was)
Kyle Turris may be traded (he was)
Lars Eller may be traded (he was)
Curtis Lazar may request a trade (he did)
Hjalmarsson may be traded (he was)
PL Dubois signs an ELC
Nazem Kadri signs an extension
Coyotes may trade for a goalie (they did)
Oilers will sign Lucic (they did)
David Perron to the Penguins
Preds, Avs, Sens talked about three-way Duchenen trade (just fookin happened)
Sharks pushing hard for Polak (they traded for him)
Mike Smith signs an extension
Ryan Johansen may be traded (he was)

His dumb tweet in question is his opinion and not an actual rumour, maybe he should do that less so people wouldn't think he's such a hack. But he DOES have connections (outside Nonis), to state he is irrelevant is foolish, he is well connected whether we like it or not.

These headlines are based on a search someone else did 1.5 years ago, and does not cover the last 1.5 years so I'm sure more headlines can be added to this list.

 

[Bomber0104]

The Leafs would probably match because that compensation is not great. Which is why if the Leafs don't think that Marner is worth 10.5Mx5 (and I definitely don't think he is) they should be giving him a deadline of around June 10th and then looking for trades.

As long as the offer sheet threat exists, why would a team feel the need to trade major assets for Marner when they could just ink him 20 days after your self-imposed deadline, and give up nothing but draft picks?

He's not making less than $10.5M on his next contract, and I think it's becoming clearer the closer we get to July 1st.

 

[Brown Dog]

Dang, do these guys not realize this is a cap league? I get that they are professionals and this is how they earn a living.

But are they not also competitors, presumably gunning to win a championship? The cap pie is only so big and squeezing every last dollar means the roster will suffer and quality teammates will have to be sacrificed, just as the team is poised to do something truly special.

Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, I can't think of another drought more significant than the Leafs'. Or a championship that would be more rewarding to its fan base. You really want to trade a chance to be part of that for a few extra million bucks tacked onto what will already be a contract that sets you and your family up for life?

This is really discouraging. First Nylander, then Matthews, now Marner. Hate to say it, but this is just plain greed.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Dave f***chuk or Darren Dreger has a handshake agreement to break the Marner deal when it happens.

Any bets?

 

[Brown Dog]

As long as the offer sheet threat exists, why would a team feel the need to trade major assets for Marner when they could just ink him 20 days after your self-imposed deadline, and give up nothing but draft picks?

He's not making less than $10.5M on his next contract, and I think it's becoming clearer the closer we get to July 1st.

I really think Dubas has put himself in an impossible position here. If Marner is hell bent on hitting the jackpot (and it sounds like he is), the Leafs pretty much have to pay up. It's the final act of the overpayment drama that started with the Nylander saga and must be played out to its natural conclusion.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Dang, do these guys not realize this is a cap league? I get that they are professionals and this is how they earn a living.

But are they not also competitors, presumably gunning to win a championship? The cap pie is only so big and squeezing every last dollar means the roster will suffer and quality teammates will have to be sacrificed, just as the team is poised to do something truly special.

Now that the Cubs have won a World Series, I can't think of another drought more significant than the Leafs'. Or a championship that would be more rewarding to its fan base. You really want to trade a chance to be part of that for a few extra million bucks tacked onto what will already be a contract that sets you and your family up for life?

This is really discouraging. First Nylander, then Matthews, now Marner. Hate to say it, but this is just plain greed.

While I do agree with you, I have to admire the new generation for putting the players first. Why is there an unknown rule that states young hockey players shouldn't get paid properly? Why do UFA players get paid a shit ton more money than young hockey stars hitting their peaks? What makes Matthews more selfish than Tavares? What makes Marner more selfish than Tavares? What makes Nylander more selfish than Tavares, or any other UFA star signing for shit ton of money?

It's not selfish, it's putting the player's needs ahead of the team needs. Hockey players get paid nothing compared to other leagues. It is supply and demand, but owners make WAY too much money compared to the players.

Hopefully star players demanding shit ton of money forces the league to increase cap-size.

 

[Kiwi]

As long as the offer sheet threat exists, why would a team feel the need to trade major assets for Marner when they could just ink him 20 days after your self-imposed deadline, and give up nothing but draft picks?

He's not making less than $10.5M on his next contract, and I think it's becoming clearer the closer we get to July 1st.

Marner is an incredibly valuable asset, it's seems highly unlikely there wouldn't be multiple teams bidding for his services so I doubt teams are just going to sit back presuming his ass will even get to the point when they can offersheet him

If this gets past the draft and Marner isn't signed Dubas should be fired for gross negligence, either he signs before the draft or he gets traded on the draft floor but there is no way in hell we can let this drag on in our situation

 

[Kiwi]

I really think Dubas has put himself in an impossible position here. If Marner is hell bent on hitting the jackpot (and it sounds like he is), the Leafs pretty much have to pay up. It's the final act of the overpayment drama that started with the Nylander saga and must be played out to its natural conclusion.

No they do not, he can and should be traded if he won't sign something acceptable

Jesus, you are allowed to trade people and think of the defenseman you'd get back

 

[Brown Dog]

While I do agree with you, I have to admire the new generation for putting the players first. Why is there an unknown rule that states young hockey players shouldn't get paid properly? Why do UFA players get paid a **** ton more money than young hockey stars hitting their peaks? What makes Matthews more selfish than Tavares? What makes Marner more selfish than Tavares? What makes Nylander more selfish than Tavares, or any other UFA star signing for **** ton of money?

It's not selfish, it's putting the player's needs ahead of the team needs. Hockey players get paid nothing compared to other leagues. It is supply and demand, but owners make WAY too much money compared to the players.

Hopefully star players demanding **** ton of money forces the league to increase cap-size.

Isn't that the definition of "selfish?"

 

[kthomasf]

Dreger certainly has connections and is relevant, but when it comes to Marner, he has been one of the members in the media driving up his price. He is the one that has continually reported ridiculous numbers, which has made all of us feel 9 to 10 would be fine, whereas realistically, based on the fact he is an RFA and he is a winger, he should be in the 8 range.

I just do not get what is in it for him here, because it is one thing when you break trade deals, he is basically acting as a second agent.

 

[Bomber0104]

Marner is an incredibly valuable asset, it's seems highly unlikely there wouldn't be multiple teams bidding for his services so I doubt teams are just going to sit back presuming his ass will even get to the point when they can offersheet him

If this gets past the draft and Marner isn't signed Dubas should be fired for gross negligence, either he signs before the draft or he gets traded on the draft floor but there is no way in hell we can let this drag on in our situation

If they want to bid for him, then the bidding starts at the $10.6M compensation of four 1st round picks or the equivalent.

I doubt a team's going to give us that in assets unless they're sure they're getting Marner under contract.

 

[Hclass47]

Unfortunately the pay me now trend is in full swing Is the the new nhl. Obviously if he meets with anyone it’s a bargaining chip and will use those numbers to inflate his value but I don’t believe he’s a real threat to leave it’s all a feeling out process. He’s a local kid with countless endorsements he would probably lose leaving this market

 

[hector morrison]

As long as the offer sheet threat exists, why would a team feel the need to trade major assets for Marner when they could just ink him 20 days after your self-imposed deadline, and give up nothing but draft picks?

He's not making less than $10.5M on his next contract, and I think it's becoming clearer the closer we get to July 1st.

What is really becoming clear ...is that Dubas is thinking about what is best for the team.Where as Marners Daddy and agent are not!

Wait and see what his peers sign for first! Or if an offer sheet comes in that pays 4 first rounders,take it! and spend the 9 or 10 million on another top asset. Or trade him for best package available ..likely a decent return will be coming back. Maybe Marner ends up somewhere he doesn't want to be! He should be thinking of more than just money!

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Isn't that the definition of "selfish?"

When I say "player's needs", I mean ALL hockey players. McDavid asking for 12.5 (getting offered 13+) set a new standard for the league. Matthews asking for 11.6 set a new standard. Etc. Because of these players, the new generation (I.e Rantanen, Laine, Matthews, Marner, Point, etc) will get paid in similar ranges.

The unspoken rule around the league that you should get paid less if you're young is pretty dumb to me.

If you go to any other league, you will very rarely find star players taking discounts. But in hockey, it happens 90% of the time. Young hockey players hit their peak 23-25 years old, continue in their prime till 30, and then either continue in their prime or being decline. Why do players get paid less when they're 22-27, when those are supposed to be their best years?

I 100% want Marner to get signed to a team-friendly deal but I don't blame him for asking for more money.

 

[Kiwi]

If they want to bid for him, then the bidding starts at the $10.6M compensation of four 1st round picks or the equivalent.

I doubt a team's going to give us that in assets unless they're sure they're getting Marner under contract.

No, what they will do is make an offer around the draft rather than risk 4 1sts, multiple teams are going to be in and that's why it's my belief this won't get to July 1st

 

[Ciao]

I truly believe they may be open to the idea of trading him if they can't get him signed by July 1st.

I like that idea and I wish it were true, but I really don't believe it.

 

[Smif]

Anyone have any idea what the 3-year cost per season would be, roughly?

Feels like a bridge deal might be the best option in this case.

 

[biotk]

Hmm so any RFA can be traded up until July 1?

They can trade his rights as long as they have them - that would extend beyond July 1st as was the case with the Leafs shopping Nylander in the fall before he signed.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Anyone have any idea what the 3-year cost per season would be, roughly?

Feels like a bridge deal might be the best option in this case.

I'd go off of Kucherov's previous contract. So likely between $5-6m.

 

[biotk]

As long as the offer sheet threat exists, why would a team feel the need to trade major assets for Marner when they could just ink him 20 days after your self-imposed deadline, and give up nothing but draft picks?

He's not making less than $10.5M on his next contract, and I think it's becoming clearer the closer we get to July 1st.

Because you are either giving up 4 firsts or the Leafs would match. A lot of teams would prefer to give up assets than 4 firsts, and the Leafs would probably prefer to get assets than 4 firsts. I do hope that if Marner signs an offer sheet and the Leafs match that he becomes so unpopular that he loses all his endorsements and the team trades him the first day he is eligible to be traded.

 

[Kiwi]

Anyone have any idea what the 3-year cost per season would be, roughly?

Feels like a bridge deal might be the best option in this case.

I'd say 7M is fair, so maybe 7.5M-8M in Dubas world?

I'd go off of Kucherov's previous contract. So likely between $5-6m.

That was universally regarded as a bad contract and he fired his agent pretty much straight afterwards so I wouldn't say that's a great comparable

7M-8M×3 is how I'd ballpark it

 

[Rare Jewel]

I'd say 7M is fair, so maybe 7.5M-8M in Dubas world?



That was universally regarded as a bad contract and he fired his agent pretty much straight afterwards so I wouldn't say that's a great comparable

7M-8M×3 is how I'd ballpark it

Well, at $7 or $8m you're not a great deal off of where he probably should be.

That does seem a bit steep for a bridge.