Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Xanner]

Actually Marner camp was willing to sign in the off season, it was leaked it was $8.5 for long term. Dubas rejected, then Marner camp said they won't negotiate during season.

I heard kip mention that Marner asked for 9x8 years and that dubas countered with 7.5x8.

 

[hector morrison]

Marner would be $8-8.5 x 6-8 years.
Nylander $6.5-6.6 x 6/7
Matthews at his current salary is fine but at 7/8 years.

I don't think anyone is getting offer sheeted, that is pure media driven scare tactics.

Wouldn't have gotten what? He wouldn't agreed or you wouldn't have signed him to $8.5? Because that's the number I remember hearing his agent offered. I know I'm seeing $9 now, but it was $8.5 in off season or training camp I recall.

Marner,would not/will not accept that offer..imho! The prospect of playing with JT changed all that.

I think he is in a group of players that would/could be worth an offer sheet ,because I think there are teams that are desperate for high end talent (apparently,compensation is relative to the cap...so,some team could offer Marner 10.5 say and the penalty would be 2 firsts plus,if the cap goes up enough).

Also,it seems ,by your offer to Willy,he wasn't overpaid that much after all. He just needs to produce to make that an after thought,so guess we will see next year.

However, I really don't like the Matthews term either...it smells bad!The money is what it is,there was no escaping having to pay the top 1 or 2 goal scorer (since he entered the league).

Having high end talent really is a double edged sword! A good problem to have as they say!

They (Dubas) will need to be smart /creative...I suspect they will ask Marleau to comply...if no,then I expect Johnsson or Kappanen to be dealt, some farm team inserts perhaps.

One thing for sure...the pressure on the top money makers will be heavy. I hope they can handle having not so talented team mates because of their salary...It is cool that you did respond with numbers as well as thoughts...Cheers!

 

[DarkKnight]

I heard kip mention that Marner asked for 9x8 years and that dubas countered with 7.5x8.

8.25 x 8 man now that's a "steal".

 

[Sonny21]

I heard kip mention that Marner asked for 9x8 years and that dubas countered with 7.5x8.

Correct.

Marner,would not/will not accept that offer..imho! The prospect of playing with JT changed all that.

I think he is in a group of players that would/could be worth an offer sheet ,because I think there are teams that are desperate for high end talent (apparently,compensation is relative to the cap...so,some team could offer Marner 10.5 say and the penalty would be 2 firsts plus,if the cap goes up enough).

Also,it seems ,by your offer to Willy,he wasn't overpaid that much after all. He just needs to produce to make that an after thought,so guess we will see next year.

However, I really don't like the Matthews term either...it smells bad!The money is what it is,there was no escaping having to pay the top 1 or 2 goal scorer (since he entered the league).

Having high end talent really is a double edged sword! A good problem to have as they say!

They (Dubas) will need to be smart /creative...I suspect they will ask Marleau to comply...if no,then I expect Johnsson or Kappanen to be dealt, some farm team inserts perhaps.

One thing for sure...the pressure on the top money makers will be heavy. I hope they can handle having not so talented team mates because of their salary...It is cool that you did respond with numbers as well as thoughts...Cheers!

It was $9 million x 8, but if that's the opening offer, pretty confident Dubas could of had him locked up at $8.5.
That definitely wasn't an easy decision, I will admit. But the option was there and you knew he was going to play with Tavares at that point. So he could of locked up Marner at $8.5 - $9.

 

[DarkKnight]

Correct.



It was $9 million x 8, but if that's the opening offer, pretty confident Dubas could of had him locked up at $8.5.
That definitely wasn't an easy decision, I will admit. But the option was there and you knew he was going to play with Tavares at that point. So he could of locked up Marner at $8.5 - $9.

For 8 years too, 3 UFA years.

 

[DarkKnight]

Marner at Raps game.

 

[Xanner]

8.25 x 8 man now that's a "steal".

Yeah its just a lost opportunity, i don't believe that dubas could have thought that marner wasn't going to have a great season with tavares, he should have offered at least 8.5 mill per, i don't think marners camp would have turned that down but who knows at this point.

 

[Sonny21]

For 8 years too, 3 UFA years.

Yep. Again, I won't pretend like it was an easy call per se. BUT, everyone knew he was going to play with Tavares and his numbers would be going up.

Buying 3 UFA years looks huge, we can barely get 1 with our current extensions.

 

[DarkKnight]

Yep. Again, I won't pretend like it was an easy call per se. BUT, everyone knew he was going to play with Tavares and his numbers would be going up.

Buying 3 UFA years looks huge, we can barely get 1 with our current extensions.

Now we're paying more cap and less term. That's a disaster.

 

[thewave]

Yeah its just a lost opportunity, i don't believe that dubas could have thought that marner wasn't going to have a great season with tavares, he should have offered at least 8.5 mill per, i don't think marners camp would have turned that down but who knows at this point.

I noticed scoring up with equipment changes the year prior. I said Nylander regressed because of that. He knew JT was coming in, he knew equipment changes to promote scoring were being implemented. Dubas dropped the ball and overpayed kicking the can down the line to the next GM to deal with. The guy is already a failure in his first season.

 

[jrgtml67]

We knew Dubas screwed up in the off season on Marner...not a clue how he didn't see that Marner would murder his best numbers, and be our best player..so now Dubas has no choice he has to trade several guys he may not have wanted too..only consolation is Bracco deserves a shot and looks real good

 

[A1LeafNation]

We knew Dubas screwed up in the off season on Marner...not a clue how he didn't see that Marner would murder his best numbers, and be our best player..so now Dubas has no choice he has to trade several guys he may not have wanted too..only consolation is Bracco deserves a shot and looks real good

Marner knew he was playing Tavares or Matthews. He chose not to sign until now.

 

[biotk]

I'm confident we could of gotten a better deal with him.

Of course you are. 99.99% of hf posters are confident that they know best about everything.

 

[biotk]

We knew Dubas screwed up in the off season on Marner...not a clue how he didn't see that Marner would murder his best numbers, and be our best player..so now Dubas has no choice he has to trade several guys he may not have wanted too..only consolation is Bracco deserves a shot and looks real good

Dubas has lots of choices. He could trade Marner for a great return as he is overvalued due to playing the year with a world class C.

 

[AreBe]

What else would you call all our overpayments then?

Good value for money next year or the year after, piss our pants laughing at how Dubas ripped off the player agents or representatives

Remember- the Leafs have an actual analytics department- a department! - and this is the Golden Age of Reason in Leafs management- why this matters is that they Leafs hope to both project where their players will be in the future and where the salary cap will be. This matters so as to pay players for tomorrow's reasonably anticipated and not merely hoped for production and not pay them for yesterday's production and the future drop -off which is the old way of doing things, over and again.

Paying players today for tomorrow's uncertain success has to be more than guesswork and you need real Newtonian or better calculus and margins of error and think about them long and hard, and fluke things like injuries. But injuries happen randomly, and perhaps that too can be factored in. But what we do know for certain, is that for veterans, and paying veterans for yesterday's success must raise the law of diminishing returns- that player is getting older and slower. Whereas paying for future success, you are paying today for what you project you will have tomorrow. The risk is different- but in a salary cap era, paying for the future today is like playing blackjack and you may need to logically need to double-down, (that means you, Mitch Marner) but if you hit it, and you are counting cards (Analytics) you can win big, and going for veterans and paying for past accomplishments and hope they can be repeated means you are stuck at the end of the deal with dead weight- Praise be to future looking Dubas and the new methods, the Age of Reason, and math as stupid move preventatives

Remember too the explosive growth of the salary cap. If Bettman can keep delivering big US Northeast markets to the Stanley Cup, along with another top 10 or 15 US market, keep the Canadian reality at bay (You know that the Stanley Cup is American property that Canadians culturally worship, right?) resulting that big, fat US TV deal, then that cap is going to keep on booming. Today's stupid deal has great trade value for its cheapness in 2 years time. That's how it is, even if it seems insane.

 

[Sonny21]

Good value for money next year or the year after, piss our pants laughing at how Dubas ripped off the player agents or representatives

Remember- the Leafs have an actual analytics department- a department! - and this is the Golden Age of Reason in Leafs management- why this matters is that they Leafs hope to both project where their players will be in the future and where the salary cap will be. This matters so as to pay players for tomorrow's reasonably anticipated and not merely hoped for production and not pay them for yesterday's production and the future drop -off which is the old way of doing things, over and again.

Paying players today for tomorrow's uncertain success has to be more than guesswork and you need real Newtonian or better calculus and margins of error and think about them long and hard, and fluke things like injuries. But injuries happen randomly, and perhaps that too can be factored in. But what we do know for certain, is that for veterans, and paying veterans for yesterday's success must raise the law of diminishing returns- that player is getting older and slower. Whereas paying for future success, you are paying today for what you project you will have tomorrow. The risk is different- but in a salary cap era, paying for the future today is like playing blackjack and you may need to logically need to double-down, (that means you, Mitch Marner) but if you hit it, and you are counting cards (Analytics) you can win big, and going for veterans and paying for past accomplishments and hope they can be repeated means you are stuck at the end of the deal with dead weight- Praise be to future looking Dubas and the new methods, the Age of Reason, and math as stupid move preventatives

Remember too the explosive growth of the salary cap. If Bettman can keep delivering big US Northeast markets to the Stanley Cup, along with another top 10 or 15 US market, keep the Canadian reality at bay (You know that the Stanley Cup is American property that Canadians culturally worship, right?) resulting that big, fat US TV deal, then that cap is going to keep on booming. Today's stupid deal has great trade value for its cheapness in 2 years time. That's how it is, even if it seems insane.

Leafs can hope it can become good value, and there's a chance of that.

It was an overpayment at the time of the signing, and that's what other players looking to re-sign would use as leverage. Not that Leafs have analytics department or Nylander has a chance of improving or etc.

No one is saying it was a gross overpayment and he will never live up to the contract (who really knows). The bottom line is that it was an overpayment and it set a precedent and ripple effect for negotiations following it.

That's what other agents/players use to leverage getting overpaid as well. It's that simple really.

 

[Nineteen67]

it would be 4 first rounders as it is the avg of the contract that determines the compensation.

Over 5 years.

 

[diceman934]

Over 5 years.

Nope. It is total contract amount divided by the lessor of 5 years or the actual years. In the example you gave it would be 4 first rounds pick as the average would be 12m.

 

[Trapper]

Dubas has lots of choices. He could trade Marner for a great return as he is overvalued due to playing the year with a world class C.

Who do you think is better out of these 4?
Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander?

You keep the best 3 and make sure you have a team to support them with the other.

 

[Nineteen67]

Nope. It is total contract amount divided by the lessor of 5 years or the actual years. In the example you gave it would be 4 first rounds pick as the average would be 12m.

Ok. I’ll trust you’re correct.

ETA Just ran it through the capfriendly calculator and I stand corrected.

 

[18leafsfan18]

So the leafs pay more than anybody else (as usual), and instead of criticizing the gm, it’s just more excuses.

No it's basics of how the cap works. You can no longer give out 12 year contracts to players and front load them. Like the Crosby contract.

It's very simple.

 

[ToneDog]

Landsberg talking to Dregs this morning mentioned that Leafs might want to let Mitch go out and find a deal after July 1st and Leafs take the 4 firsts and use the money to go FA shopping. Dubas needs to plant that seed in the heads of the Marner camp. Funny how Dregs does not think a million or so more for Marner is no big deal when the team is up against the cap. I listen to this guy but I am starting to agree with those that believe this moron is a Leaf hater.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Landsberg talking to Dregs this morning mentioned that Leafs might want to let Mitch go out and find a deal after July 1st and Leafs take the 4 firsts and use the money to go FA shopping. Dubas needs to plant that seed in the heads of the Marner camp. Funny how Dregs does not think a million or so more for Marner is no big deal when the team is up against the cap. I listen to this guy but I am starting to agree with those that believe this moron is a Leaf hater.

He always seems to say the thing that will get him the most views. One day it's "Leafs should sign Marner to 15 mil contract", next day it's "Leafs should take the 4 first round picks". Obviously I'm over exaggerating a bit there.

Just getting closer and closer to a click bait hot takes machine.

 

[biotk]

Who do you think is better out of these 4?
Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander?

You keep the best 3 and make sure you have a team to support them with the other.

If you end up keeping three then you do not necessarily keep the best three. You keep the three that results in the best team when all is said and done.

First of all Tavares has a NMC so in reality if your situation results in your getting rid of one of the four, it is actually one of three.

I feel like Matthews' contract is a strong indication that the team has hitched their wagon to him and feel that the value of having 2 Cs like Tavares and Matthews is their vision going forward. I also feel that Matthews has proven to be a strong producer with lower quality linemates, whereas Marner has not. Still if the Leafs decided they were best off trading Matthews I would be completely fine with that.

When it comes to Marner and Nylander if the Leafs trade one it depends on what they get back in return and what Marner's contract demands are. Nylander's value in a trade is likely lower today than it would be a year from now. Marner's is likely higher. If Marner is set on Matthews' money I would trade him without a second thought.

 

[ToneDog]

Who do you think is better out of these 4?
Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander?

You keep the best 3 and make sure you have a team to support them with the other.

The simple answer is Nylander but the unknown is what can they get for Marner or Matthews (JT probably has NMC) and how much can they save in cap space??