Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Legion34]

EvolvingWild (a Wild blogger) who has a decent track record of predicting contracts has Marner getting a hair over 9.7 mil aav

We will see where these end up. I find them interesting. I wonder if Dubas has his own

 

[HoweHullOrr]

2nd sentence is quite possible.

But, RH's anticipated salary is not surprising at all. It's "market conditions" for a defenseman, especially a RD.

$1.0 - 1.5 m for RH is for all intents & purposes another dream.

38 year old players don't usually get a raise.

Forest versus trees.

Focus should be on (mine is) is on the last sentence. I bolded it to sharpen the focus on what's relevant for the Leafs.

I'm not trying to quibble on a few thousand dollars/year.

 

[Notsince67]

Forest versus trees.

Focus should be on (mine is) is on the last sentence. I bolded it to sharpen the focus on what's relevant for the Leafs.

I would certainly sign him for 1.5MM

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I would certainly sign him for 1.5MM

Sure, but the only thing that's relevant is what Hainsey will do.

There's often a huge disparity on what we'd like to do, and what really happens. Players aren't paying attention to you or any other fan.

 

[MyBudJT]

Ya he never gets paid 45 million. He gets 41.77 over 6 seasons.

Dubas specifically said that they went and purposely structured the contract so that he would be front loaded for the future.

Unless you think Willy really won 45 million and gave back 3.23 of it because he is a great guy. If he really got that much. He would have back loaded it so that he got more of it.

Again ehlers signed with one 60 pt season. Willy had two. Forsberg signed for 8.22 in a tax free state.

There are multiple models that predicted exactly what he got.

Even if you are right. .005 percent of the cap is 400k. If you really want to be upset about like half of Frederick Gauthier’s salary.

Be my guest

Nylander's cap hit this season was 12.96%. You simply cannot just ignore that. Nylander holding impacted our season in many ways. You cannot just ignore that. Its largely Nylanders fault that he "gave back 3.23 million"... you cannot just ignore that.

Ehlers at U22 had two 60 points seasons, Nylander at U22 had two 60 point seasons. They're great comparisons. To suggest otherwise is foolish.

Forsberg also was a better goal scorer, which tends to go for more of a premium. That puts the "tax free state" factor as a wash, IMO.

Its not just that Nylander is ~750K overpaid (give or take 250K). Its that he above market demands set a new precedent for our organization that made us overpay Matthews and the rest of our RFAs. We had a pretty good internal comparison to Nylander in Rielly. Both were similar calliber players (albiet played different positions) during their ELC years. Rielly got 5 million... Nylander really shouldn't have got more than 6.25.

 

[Notsince67]

Sure, but the only thing that's relevant is what Hainsey will do.

There's often a huge disparity on what we'd like to do, and what really happens. Players aren't paying attention to you or any other fan.

I'm not sure how this is relevant.
I've already stated that I am skeptical about a contract like that being dished out to Hainsey considering he is 38 and it would be a pay increase. That addresses him signing with another team. As for the leafs, they can't pay him that much. So what exactly is your point...that hainsey will do what he wants?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm not sure how this is relevant.
I've already stated that I am skeptical about a contract like that being dished out to Hainsey considering he is 38 and it would be a pay increase. That addresses him signing with another team. As for the leafs, they can't pay him that much. So what exactly is your point...that hainsey will do what he wants?

Yes. IF RH believes he is being offered a low-ball contract from the Leafs, he'll sign elsewhere. He's a UFA and can go wherever he wants to go.

If you haven't figured out what I'm saying after all this, its not worth discussing any further.

 

[Nithoniniel]

You cannot just ignore the fact that he ate up a high amount of cap % this season. It effected our ability to add at the TDL, and aquire depth that could have helped in the playoffs.

That's not how it works. Nylander cost us $6.96M towards the cap from the moment he signed until the season ended.

The league decided that they didn't want to create a situation where signing later meant a lower cap hit, so they devised a system where the first year was artificially higher so that the cap hit from the moment of signing was the same.

The higher number that you are referring to is what the artificially increased one would be over the whole season. But Nylander didn't have a contract the whole season.

 

[Legion34]

Nylander's cap hit this season was 12.96%. You simply cannot just ignore that. Nylander holding impacted our season in many ways. You cannot just ignore that. Its largely Nylanders fault that he "gave back 3.23 million"... you cannot just ignore that.

Ehlers at U22 had two 60 points seasons, Nylander at U22 had two 60 point seasons. They're great comparisons. To suggest otherwise is foolish.

Forsberg also was a better goal scorer, which tends to go for more of a premium. That puts the "tax free state" factor as a wash, IMO.

Its not just that Nylander is ~750K overpaid (give or take 250K). Its that he above market demands set a new precedent for our organization that made us overpay Matthews and the rest of our RFAs. We had a pretty good internal comparison to Nylander in Rielly. Both were similar calliber players (albiet played different positions) during their ELC years. Rielly got 5 million... Nylander really shouldn't have got more than 6.25.

When Ehlers signed. He had one. He signed BEFORE his second season

You also can’t Ignore the tax advantages in Nashville.

Nylander had a higher hit this year by design. They specifically said so. Dubas was NOT going all in this year. Tampa was running away with the cup this year. Remember?

Dubas made his move. He got muzzin. He wasn’t going to give up a ton of picks For forwards etc this year

Many independent models predicted the contract. One did it exactly.

Back in the summer. Look them up. There was a whole reddit thread that was fascinating. They also came up with 6.9 x 6

His contract was fine. Bob McKenzie himself came out this week and laughed at the fans who thought he would get less than 6.5.

400k is not the end of the world. And it didn’t make matthews sign for more.

Matthews has the 4th highest elc goals since the lockout in 30 less games. He has gone toe to toe with ovechkin

As a rookie. With 3’less min per game. Playing with rookies.

You really think that Matthews decided he was worth more because of Nylander?

Really?

 

[Nineteen67]

Its mind boggling that any e legitimately believes they arent using external comparables for contracts lol

Then again folks do that kind of stuff all the time - treating these brief media snippets without anti of skepticism as long as it fits their argument

It’s not an argument. I’m simply stating what the agent said....with RFAs he uses the internal salary’s to slot the player. Really not hard to comprehend.

 

[Notsince67]

Yes. IF RH believes he is being offered a low-ball contract from the Leafs, he'll sign elsewhere.

If you haven't figured out what I'm saying after all this, its not worth discussing any further.

I point out that 38 year olds don't usually get a raise and you redirect to another obscure pointin an obvious attempt to dodge an obvious fact . Then you spin back and say that he will sign elsewhere if he believes the leafs are lowballing him which indicates that you don't support the premise that 38 year olds don't usually get a raise. Either shit or get off the pot.

 

[MyBudJT]

That's not how it works. Nylander cost us $6.96M towards the cap from the moment he signed until the season ended.

The league decided that they didn't want to create a situation where signing later meant a lower cap hit, so they devised a system where the first year was artificially higher so that the cap hit from the moment of signing was the same.

The higher number that you are referring to is what the artificially increased one would be over the whole season. But Nylander didn't have a contract the whole season.

I could be wrong, but I thought the fact that he got 10 million + 2 million signing bonus this year would mean that his cap hit would still be quite a bit higher than the 8.75 on years 2-6. Regardless, it still impacted us, because there was a player taking Nylander's spot that also used cap space. Cap space is accumulative when you don't use LTIR, so even cap space for someone at 850K (Leivo) would have opened up ~3 mil in potential cap space at the TDL.

Bottom line is, if Nylander signed in October, even at 7 mil AAV, we would have still potentially have had extra cap space that could have been used to aquire depth at the TDL.

 

[dangomon]

EvolvingWild (a Wild blogger) who has a decent track record of predicting contracts has Marner getting a hair over 9.7 mil aav

Hainsey has earned another contract with his play, but he isn't getting nearly 4M, and I doubt Johnsson gets nearly double what Kap gets. Some numbers seem very reasonable, some seem a bit outlandish. I'd be a-ok with that Marner contract, but I don't see it happening for that $ at max term.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I point out that 38 year olds don't usually get a raise and you redirect to another obscure pointin an obvious attempt to dodge an obvious fact . Then you spin back and say that he will sign elsewhere if he believes the leafs are lowballing him which indicates that you don't support the premise that 38 year olds don't usually get a raise. Either **** or get off the pot.

There was more than one idea being expressed in my original post. I've bolded the most important one and already stated that the point of my post wasn't to quibble about a few hundred thousand dollars e.g. $3.2 m/year versus $3.7 m/year. See #1148 & #1152, but this time, read the entire post(s).

You stated "I would certainly sign him for 1.5MM". That certainly seems to indicate that you think its possible he'll sign with the Leafs @ $1.5 m AAV.

I don't.

 

[MyBudJT]

When Ehlers signed. He had one. He signed BEFORE his second season

That really doesn't matter a whole lot... Statistically, Ehlers is Nylander's best comparison.

You also can’t Ignore the tax advantages in Nashville.

You also can't ignore that Forsberg produced more (goals and points) without a franchise talent like Matthews centering him.

Nylander had a higher hit this year by design. They specifically said so. Dubas was NOT going all in this year. Tampa was running away with the cup this year. Remember?

What a load of bull.... Now your suggesting that Dubas didn't try to win this year? LOL

Dubas made his move. He got muzzin. He wasn’t going to give up a ton of picks For forwards etc this year

He didn't have to give up a ton... Nylander's contract impacted our ability to aquire more depth, while it wouldn't have if he didn't hold out.

Many independent models predicted the contract. One did it exactly.
Back in the summer. Look them up. There was a whole reddit thread that was fascinating. They also came up with 6.9 x 6

While, those models were shit. His best comparisons got paid significantly less.

His contract was fine. Bob McKenzie himself came out this week and laughed at the fans who thought he would get less than 6.5.

He's overpaid.... 7 mil > 6.5 mil.

400k is not the end of the world. And it didn’t make matthews sign for more.

It sure did. Dubas was already getting the reputation as a poor negotiator because of the Nylander holdout, and Matthews took advantage of that too.

Explain to me why other teams can sign their RFAs are fair market values, but we can't?

Matthews has the 4th highest elc goals since the lockout in 30 less games. He has gone toe to toe with ovechkin. As a rookie. With 3’less min per game. Playing with rookies. You really think that Matthews decided he was worth more because of Nylander?

Really?

I didn't say that. I said Nylander's holdout has a trickle down effect throughout the rest of our negotations. Its clear as day.

I love Matthews, but fact of the matter is, he got the best contract in the NHL, and he's probably not yet a Top 15 NHL player.

Both contracts were above market value.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I could be wrong, but I thought the fact that he got 10 million + 2 million signing bonus this year would mean that his cap hit would still be quite a bit higher than the 8.75 on years 2-6. Regardless, it still impacted us, because there was a player taking Nylander's spot that also used cap space. Cap space is accumulative when you don't use LTIR, so even cap space for someone at 850K (Leivo) would have opened up ~3 mil in potential cap space at the TDL.

Bottom line is, if Nylander signed in October, even at 7 mil AAV, we would have still potentially have had extra cap space that could have been used to aquire depth at the TDL.

Sure. I think that's a bit like saying we wasted cap space by running 23 players instead of 22, but you're not incorrect.

The next question would be whether we actually needed another depth piece. Ennis and Moore were some of our best, relative to ice time and expectations. We had a Rosén who didn't play. I don't think there was a whole lot on the market at the deadline that would have helped from a depth perspective.

It sure did. Dubas was already getting the reputation as a poor negotiator because of the Nylander holdout, and Matthews took advantage of that too.

That's completely hypothetical.

 

[Mess]

EvolvingWild (a Wild blogger) who has a decent track record of predicting contracts has Marner getting a hair over 9.7 mil aav

So he predicts $9.79 mil X 8 years for Marner.. That seems fairly reasonable and logical for 8 years.

What will you say when his deal aligns more with Matthews deal and Marner gets $10.5 mil X 5-6 years?

 

[MyBudJT]

Sure. I think that's a bit like saying we wasted cap space by running 23 players instead of 22, but you're not incorrect.

The next question would be whether we actually needed another depth piece. Ennis and Moore were some of our best, relative to ice time and expectations. We had a Rosén who didn't play. I don't think there was a whole lot on the market at the deadline that would have helped from a depth perspective.

You could be right here, but regardless, the extra cap flexibility could have made a trade avialable that wasn't at the TDL or throughout the season. We don't know what gets talked about between GMs, but you cannot deny that cap space and cap flexibility is a good asset for any organizaiton.

That's completely hypothetical.

If it is completely hypothetical, then explain how teams like Winnipeg, Boston, Tampa, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis, Calgary, etc all managed not to overpay their star players...

 

[Legion34]

That really doesn't matter a whole lot... Statistically, Ehlers is Nylander's best comparison.


You also can't ignore that Forsberg produced more (goals and points) without a franchise talent like Matthews centering him.


What a load of bull.... Now your suggesting that Dubas didn't try to win this year? LOL


He didn't have to give up a ton... Nylander's contract impacted our ability to aquire more depth, while it wouldn't have if he didn't hold out.


While, those models were ****. His best comparisons got paid significantly less.


He's overpaid.... 7 mil > 6.5 mil.


It sure did. Dubas was already getting the reputation as a poor negotiator because of the Nylander holdout, and Matthews took advantage of that too.

Explain to me why other teams can sign their RFAs are fair market values, but we can't?



I didn't say that. I said Nylander's holdout has a trickle down effect throughout the rest of our negotations. Its clear as day.

I love Matthews, but fact of the matter is, he got the best contract in the NHL, and he's probably not yet a Top 15 NHL player.

Both contracts were above market value.

1.) Ugh. Ok 2 60pt seasons is better than 1.
Otherwise guess William Karlson could have got 11 million right?

Models that used total games. Points and ppg predicted Nylander exactly. Months before he signed.

You may not like or agree with it but that’s how many people who compared them all seem to think it works. And the prediction turned out to be exactly right. Maybe you should be the one to change it?

2.) Dubas got us our depth. He got muzzin. He said specifically that he liked our depth. And that he wasn’t going to do something that didn’t make sense. The plan is to compete for many years. Not just one. He wasn’t going to break the bank and deplete the prospect pool for 1 year...... remember when we used to do that?

But I’ll play along. Who did you want him to get that they couldn’t afford?

What trade happened that you think the leafs missed out on?

3.) he already had a reputation as a poor negotiator? When Tavares signed for 2 million less than reports?

4.) what other teams have signed their RFAs since last summer?

Who has got a better deal? Did Winnipeg get Connor to sign early? Did Tampa do well on point? What do you think about tkachuks new deal?

Wait. That’s right NO STAR RFA has signed This year. Except one

 

[Legion34]

You could be right here, but regardless, the extra cap flexibility could have made a trade avialable that wasn't at the TDL or throughout the season. We don't know what gets talked about between GMs, but you cannot deny that cap space and cap flexibility is a good asset for any organizaiton.




If it is completely hypothetical, then explain how teams like Winnipeg, Boston, Tampa, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis, Calgary, etc all managed not to overpay their star players...

Who has signed a star player this year?
Name 1 team. I can

 

[Nithoniniel]

If it is completely hypothetical, then explain how teams like Winnipeg, Boston, Tampa, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis, Calgary, etc all managed not to overpay their star players...

Dallas are paying $9.5M for a guy who hit 50 points playing on a line with two great players.

My counter would be this: there's a whole lot more that goes into negotiating a contract than arguable overpayments of other players on the team. And since we don't know all those factors, we can't really pick out one and say that's the reason. Hence, hypothetical.

My personal opinion is that Matthews got paid for what he is and not for the case he's made for himself. If you look at his performance with context taken into account, he got about what he should have. However, that's projected results and not actual results. Dubas paid for the former, and that's on him.

 

[Notsince67]

There was more than one idea being expressed in my original post. I've bolded the most important one and already stated that the point of my post wasn't to quibble about a few hundred thousand dollars e.g. $3.2 m/year versus $3.7 m/year. See #1148 & #1152, but this time, read the entire post(s).

You stated "I would certainly sign him for 1.5MM". That certainly seems to indicate that you think its possible he'll sign with the Leafs @ $1.5 m AAV.

I don't.

I made 2 simple points.
I am skeptical of Hainsey's cap projection and that at that price, he wouldn't be a leaf.
You said :
-----------------------------
"RH's anticipated salary is not surprising at all. It's "market conditions" for a defenseman, especially a RD.

$1.0 - 1.5 m for RH is for all intents & purposes another dream."
----------------------------

I said that it was unlikely that a 38 year old player would get a raise.

How is what I said incorrect. The reference was on my cap projection skepticism. If you are in support of the cap projection, stop running from the facts. Hainsey is unlikely to get that cap hit.
Even proposing that he is likelier to get signed at that cap hit by another team than signing with the leafs at 1.5MM is a bit absurd. He likely takes less or he retires. Completely consistent with my original post.
As for your strawman saying that I feel it's possible he will sign @1.5MM...I said I would sign him at 1.5MM....not that it couldn't be a bit higher. Chara made 2MM this year. I wouldn't think he is worth more than that.

 

[Trapper]

If you think Marner is "the guy", like the same class equivalent as Kucherov/Ovi/top end, then pay him.

But I would never pay any winger beyond that more than 5 million dollars.
Center/D. You build there and rotate the rest.
Wingers are the easiest to get and shed when you become a cap watching team.

 

[Notsince67]

If you think Marner is "the guy", like the same class equivalent as Kucherov/Ovi/top end, then pay him.

But I would never pay any winger beyond that more than 5 million dollars.
Center/D. You build there and rotate the rest.
Wingers are the easiest to get and shed when you become a cap watching team.

Most wingers of great skill get moved to center. Not all of them do. It is important to assess the overall skill level of the player because the generic classification of value should be defined not by the role but the completeness of the player's game.

 

[Legion34]

Most wingers of great skill get moved to center. Not all of them do. It is important to assess the overall skill level of the player because the generic classification of value should be defined not by the role but the completeness of the player's game.

So honest question. Why do you think babcock has Never happen played him at C?

Despite babcocks insistence that C are the most important.

Despite what 4 injuries to Matthews, Nylander missing 30’games. Kadri suspensions etc

Why do you think he never plays C. He has been on every line. But never a C