Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Nineteen67]

So just to be clear. Your take is that the leafs And Lewis just decided to use team comparables that don’t exist.

And Nylander just happened to end up with a cap hit of 8.75 percent. Which was in line with other similar RFA wingers. And Exactly What several models using other teams Rfas
Predicted

That’s what you believe?

I believe what he said and that’s how they took Dubas to the cleaners.

 

[Legion34]

I believe what he said and that’s how they took Dubas to the cleaners.

Except nylander ended up exactly where he was projected to.

Believe what you want. Without any evidence i guess

 

[Mickey Marner]

Lewis Gross said he was only using the Leafs salary structure in negotiating Nylander’s contract. Dubas should have held firm, but he didn’t.

They were reportedly asking for Draisaitl money, who isn't a Maple Leaf.

 

[Nineteen67]

Except nylander ended up exactly where he was projected to.

Believe what you want. Without any evidence i guess

20 million in 7 months?
Don’t know why he’d make up a story. Makes no sense.

 

[Nineteen67]

They were reportedly asking for Draisaitl money, who isn't a Maple Leaf.

That’s not what he said.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I have a feeling, purely speculation, that Dubas pretty much said "Don't worry about things like PP time and how Babcock plays you. I'm going to pay you based on your p/60 5v5 type stats compared to other players".

What he didn't expect was how much that skewed things. Playing far less minutes every game of course gives you extra energy/stamina for the shifts you play. Which ends with the leaf players having incredible 5v5 p/60 type stats, but with very mediocre actual REAL stats. You know. The REAL goals and assists that determine which team wins.

Now Dubas has to sleep in the bed he made. It's ended with leaf players getting paid FAR more than comparables for far less actual real production. Dubas gambled and lost. Unfortunately, there are no "good tries" in the big leagues. He f***ed up, and going to cost this team dearly.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

20 million in 7 months?
Don’t know why he’d make up a story. Makes no sense.

Yep, Clark ignores the parts of the contract he doesn't like. 1 or 2 less ufa years signed than comparables. FAR more front loaded/paid in signing bonuses than comparables. Those perks for Nylander were supposed to lower the aav.

 

[Menzinger]

EvolvingWild (a Wild blogger) who has a decent track record of predicting contracts has Marner getting a hair over 9.7 mil aav

 

[Brown Dog]

EvolvingWild (a Wild blogger) who has a decent track record of predicting contracts has Marner getting a hair over 9.7 mil aav

And Johnsson at $3.7 million! Yikes!

 

[Menzinger]

And Johnsson at $3.7 million! Yikes!

Likely on another team if that's the case.

 

[bikemike66]

And Johnsson at $3.7 million! Yikes!

0.0% of Johnsson signing for eight years, but a 2.4% chance of Joe Thornton doing so!

 

[bentharbs]

AJ will not make 3.7 and if he does he will not be on the leafs for long.

Edit: Also, that Marner contract would be utterly fine to me.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I don't see how you can follow the development of contracts and somehow come to the conclusion that league-wide peers isn't the main comparable. The correlation is uncanny. The average contract is well in line with comparables per cap hit percentage. It continues to be that way through the years and cap range. Meanwhile, there's only one clear example where you can make an argument that in-house contracts determine future ones, and that's Tampa.

I'm amazed that some just swallow Gross saying they looked at internal comparables when there are no good ones and the contract ended up perfectly in line with Willy's league-wide comparables.

 

[Notsince67]

Is Mitch Marner Worth Four First-Round Picks For Flyers?

 

[MyBudJT]

So just to be clear. Your take is that the leafs And Lewis just decided to use team comparables that don’t exist.

And Nylander just happened to end up with a cap hit of 8.75 percent. Which was in line with other similar RFA wingers. And Exactly What several models using other teams Rfas
Predicted

That’s what you believe?

Nylander's cap% isn't 8.75% though, it averages to 9.4%... and regardless, its much higher than his closest comparables...

Ehlers, the best comparable was 8% for 7 years (1 extra) and 1 extra RFA year....

Forsberg, the 2nd best comparable was 8.22%, but even then, he was a much better goal scorer (he had 26 and 33G seasons under his belt).

 

[Menzinger]

I don't see how you can follow the development of contracts and somehow come to the conclusion that league-wide peers isn't the main comparable. The correlation is uncanny. The average contract is well in line with comparables per cap hit percentage. It continues to be that way through the years and cap range. Meanwhile, there's only one clear example where you can make an argument that in-house contracts determine future ones, and that's Tampa.

I'm amazed that some just swallow Gross saying they looked at internal comparables when there are no good ones and the contract ended up perfectly in line with Willy's league-wide comparables.

Its mind boggling that any e legitimately believes they arent using external comparables for contracts lol

Then again folks do that kind of stuff all the time - treating these brief media snippets without anti of skepticism as long as it fits their argument

 

[Bomber0104]

EvolvingWild (a Wild blogger) who has a decent track record of predicting contracts has Marner getting a hair over 9.7 mil aav

After the Nylander and Matthews contracts, it's pretty clear that Marner won't need to give the Leafs 8 years.

 

[Notsince67]

After the Nylander and Matthews contracts, it's pretty clear that Marner won't need to give the Leafs 8 years.

Really skeptical that Hainsey get signed for 2 more years at 3.7MM. At that price, he aint a leaf.

 

[Bomber0104]

Really skeptical that Hainsey get signed for 2 more years at 3.7MM. At that price, he aint a leaf.

I think those projections are just highlighting the team the player was with for the 2018/19 season.

But yeah, he likely won't be a Leaf next season which is ashame because he plays the right side well and was probably our grittiest dman.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

And Johnsson at $3.7 million! Yikes!

Other interesting predictions include:

• Hainsey, 2 years @ $3.7 m AAV
• Ratanen higher AAV than Marner

 

[Legion34]

Nylander's cap% isn't 8.75% though, it averages to 9.4%... and regardless, its much higher than his closest comparables...

Ehlers, the best comparable was 8% for 7 years (1 extra) and 1 extra RFA year....

Forsberg, the 2nd best comparable was 8.22%, but even then, he was a much better goal scorer (he had 26 and 33G seasons under his belt).

6.96/79.5 is 8.75

There have Been multiple articles with multiple comaparables. All ended up between 8.2 and 9.25. Willy’s numbers in elc and pedigreee. are comparable to all of them. Whether he ends up as good at the end who knows?

He got within the excepted and established range

Ehlers only had 1 60 pt season when he signed. Willy had 2

 

[MyBudJT]

6.96/79.5 is 8.75

There have Been multiple articles with multiple comaparables. All ended up between 8.2 and 9.25. Willy’s numbers in elc and pedigreee. are comparable to all of them. Whether he ends up as good at the end who knows?

He got within the excepted and established range

(45 million / 7 years ) / 79.5 = 9.4

You cannot just ignore the fact that he ate up a high amount of cap % this season. It effected our ability to add at the TDL, and aquire depth that could have helped in the playoffs.

Also, most of those "comparables" your referring two had more impressive ELC year(s) than Nylander. Nylander hasn't scored more than 22 goals or 61 points... not exactly screaming "elite".

Again, Nylander's CLOSEST comparables had 8% x 7 years and 8.22% x 6 years. Nylander should have been somewhere between them.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Really skeptical that Hainsey get signed for 2 more years at 3.7MM. At that price, he aint a leaf.

2nd sentence is quite possible.

But, RH's anticipated salary is not surprising at all. It's "market conditions" for a defenseman, especially a RD.

$1.0 - 1.5 m for RH is for all intents & purposes another dream.

 

[Notsince67]

2nd sentence is quite possible.

But, RH's anticipated salary is not surprising at all. It's "market conditions" for a defenseman, especially a RD.

$1.0 - 1.5 m for RH is for all intents & purposes another dream.

38 year old players don't usually get a raise.

 

[Legion34]

(45 million / 7 years ) / 79.5 = 9.4

You cannot just ignore the fact that he ate up a high amount of cap % this season. It effected our ability to add at the TDL, and aquire depth that could have helped in the playoffs.

Also, most of those "comparables" your referring two had more impressive ELC year(s) than Nylander. Nylander hasn't scored more than 22 goals or 61 points... not exactly screaming "elite".

Again, Nylander's CLOSEST comparables had 8% x 7 years and 8.22% x 6 years. Nylander should have been somewhere between them.

Ya he never gets paid 45 million. He gets 41.77 over 6 seasons.

Dubas specifically said that they went and purposely structured the contract so that he would be front loaded for the future.

Unless you think Willy really won 45 million and gave back 3.23 of it because he is a great guy. If he really got that much. He would have back loaded it so that he got more of it.

Again ehlers signed with one 60 pt season. Willy had two. Forsberg signed for 8.22 in a tax free state.

There are multiple models that predicted exactly what he got.

Even if you are right. .005 percent of the cap is 400k. If you really want to be upset about like half of Frederick Gauthier’s salary.

Be my guest