Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[nuck]

The reason some people are wary of it is because we have a history of comparisons leading to opposite camps that stop at nothing to win, including taking constant potshots at the other guy. It was bad enough with Bozak vs Kadri. I don't want to see this place if we do the same with Matthews and Marner.


I've always thought the idea of driving a line to be a difficult one. What does it actually entail? If it's that you need to be the best player on a successful line, then a Nylander is a yes for me. I can see him centering a third line with some talent on his wings being a huge success. If you add that you need to be able to do that irregardless of type and quality of your linemates, then you're basically looking at Crosby and nobody else. It's just to check McDavid's performance away from Draisaitl to see what can happen even to a guy like him when he has crap for wingers.

Personally, I'm a bit in the middle ground there. My criterias for being able to drive a line would be:
1) Be the best player on the line.
2) Carry a large portion of the work load.
3) The line needs to actually be successful.
4) Make do with what quality you can expect for the line usage.
5) Be able to have that success no matter what type of player you put on the line.

Someone like Nylander is then only a half yes for me. I'm not sure about #5. Getting bad results with only grinders is one thing (there's actually research on this that showed that lines with two players like that, irregardless of quality, just does not fare well) but I think he might need a good goalscorer on the line to turn possession and chances into production. Marner is a probably to me, he's got a similar case but we haven't seen him with only grinders, and I think his creativity could mean that he's not as dependent on goalscorers. Matthews and Tavares are both definitely yes. And so is Kadri, to be honest. It's perhaps the most amazing thing about him.

I think Nylander could drive a line, just the club has 3 guys better at it so we will never see it in TO. If you imagine they lost the draft lottery and ended up with Laine it would have been Willie and him with Mitch and Kadri on a second line. Marner with Kadri plus a power LW like Ferland would be extremely effective. Willie, Laine and Hyman I expect

 

[FraumBallard]

Who said the picks are high? Could easily be 4 picks in the 25-31 range.

The cap space will be eaten up quickly or will sit there and not make the team any better.

That could be true too.
We may never know.
Too much $ on 4 players if Marner gets paid over 10.
Tough to compete for a cup I think.
At least near term without a big move to create space.

 

[Duke Silver]

I hope Rantanen is signed before Marner. He performed better during the regular season and playoffs. Mitch can not ask more than Rantanen.

Mitch had a more impressive ELC: played at a 76-point pace over that timeframe, to Rantanen's 71.

Rantanen had a slightly better point pace this season: 96 to Marner's 94.

 

[Kiwi]

The Islanders are exactly the type of the team we should allow to give us 4 1st rounders. They could easily be in the lottery for the near future, even with Marner.

Nothing would make me happier than to have 4 first round picks from the Islanders (who I view as a playoff bubble team... at best) and have 11 million in cap space to spend 5.5 each on a defender and forward.

It's a dream come true. Make it happen Lou.

The Islanders would be insane to even contemplate that idea

Image that offer sheet getting signed, we take the picks and they pull an Ottawa for 4 years (which doesn't seem impossible)

That's franchise and fan base crushing

How many elite teams have 12 mil in cap space and all 4 1st round picks?

Not many, maybe Colorado but they have a lot of young guys to sign over the next few years and giving huge money to Marner would effect there RFA contracts for the foreseeable future

Offer-sheets sound awesome but once you start drilling down you see why teams aren't keen

There really are no winners

 

[nuck]

No, it won't be the signing of Tavares that results in Marner leaving. What would be unreasonable to pay Marner would be unreasonable regardless of where Tavares was playing hockey. If Tavares wasn't here the Leafs wouldn't suddenly be fine paying him 11 or 12 million per season. The only offersheets that are tough to deal with are the ones I doubt anyone wants to give out. I doubt many if any teams are ready to hand over 4 first round picks and make him the winger in the league with the highest cap hit. Because that's the offersheet that will be bothersome to work around. On top of that need to find a team that Marner actually wants to play for since you can't offersheet someone against their will. And that's going to require finding a team that gives him a chance to win, so much money he's willing to leave and will allow him to get similar amounts in endorsement deals.

The Marner offersheet discussion is a joke that is there to keep TSN, Sportsnet, and fear mongers getting attention once the offseason arrives. Any offersheet that doesn't result in a team giving up 4 first rounders aren't likely to appeal to Marner and would be matched. And any that does will likely be too rich for the limited number of teams that could both offer the contract and still appeal to Marner. Little doubt he ends up signed with the Leafs. And in the only case where he doesn't it won't be the Tavares deal that leads to him going. It will just be simple greed and signing a ridiculous contract that won't be worth it for any team that ends up stuck with it.

It does seem unlikely there are any clubs out there that don't think TO wouldn't dump Willie and match anything that was offered. Especially with "we can and we will" at the helm. Dubas' lack of spine with the first two might make him chum for Marner's agent, but also shows he will pay what it takes to make the deal happen. If they REALLY needed it to happen they could move Zaits and probably even Marleau with the right incentives. Willie's first two seasons plus the front loading make him an easy move for a strong return, even with the off year. Not only could they match any stupid Marner offer they could do it and still add a decent FA.

 

[Mess]

No, it won't be the signing of Tavares that results in Marner leaving. What would be unreasonable to pay Marner would be unreasonable regardless of where Tavares was playing hockey. If Tavares wasn't here the Leafs wouldn't suddenly be fine paying him 11 or 12 million per season. The only offersheets that are tough to deal with are the ones I doubt anyone wants to give out. I doubt many if any teams are ready to hand over 4 first round picks and make him the winger in the league with the highest cap hit. Because that's the offersheet that will be bothersome to work around. On top of that need to find a team that Marner actually wants to play for since you can't offersheet someone against their will. And that's going to require finding a team that gives him a chance to win, so much money he's willing to leave and will allow him to get similar amounts in endorsement deals.

The Marner offersheet discussion is a joke that is there to keep TSN, Sportsnet, and fear mongers getting attention once the offseason arrives. Any offersheet that doesn't result in a team giving up 4 first rounders aren't likely to appeal to Marner and would be matched. And any that does will likely be too rich for the limited number of teams that could both offer the contract and still appeal to Marner. Little doubt he ends up signed with the Leafs. And in the only case where he doesn't it won't be the Tavares deal that leads to him going. It will just be simple greed and signing a ridiculous contract that won't be worth it for any team that ends up stuck with it.

NYR offersheet Marner at $13 mil X 7 years .. Would be too rich for Leafs to match !!

Next to Leafs the NYR are the 2nd richest team so money is no object, their highest paid forward makes $5.35 mil, and projected Cap space is $16 mil for next year (with 19 players already under contract).

They made 3 X 1st round picks last year and have 3 X 1sts this upcoming draft (including picking #2OA after lottery win) = 6 X 1st last 2 years. So giving away 4 X 1st starting in 2020 would matter little to them.

New York market and endorsements might be a place Marner would sign to play.

That is the team I'd be fearful of as they have the motivation and means and the draft capital to make that happen.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

NYR offersheet Marner at $13 mil X 7 years .. Would be too rich for Leafs to match !!

Next to Leafs the NYR are the 2nd richest team so money is no object, their highest paid forward makes $5.35 mil, and projected Cap space is $16 mil for next year.

They made 3 X 1st round picks last year and have 3 X 1sts this draft (including picking #2OA) = 6 1st last 2 years. So giving away 4 X 1st starting in 2020 would matter little to them.

New York market and endorsements might be a place Marner would sign to play.

That is the team I'd be fearful of as they have the motivation and means and the draft capital to make that happen.

Again, nothing would make me happier than having four first round picks from a bottom barrel team, and 13 extra mil in cap space.
Leafs could sign a defenceman for 6 mil, and another forward for 7. Plus the 4 first round picks.

A dream come true.

 

[diceman934]

I seriously question how many true Leaf fans post here. People hoping Marner getting offer sheeted and is getting 4 first round picks. Like they will all be top picks. Not a chance will they be. If it was the Islanders he instantly makes them a whole lot better. Same with the Flyers etc.

Next you sign Marner he just scored more points then any other Leaf has in a very long time still playing on his ELC. He is going no where. No way that Shanny will let him go. He gets signed and you make adjustments that is needed to ice a competitive line up.

If trades need to happen to improve our D then they are done. We can even keep Nylander if we shed Marleau otherwise he is likely gone. Hope he has a good World Championship.

He salary cap is going to be what ever it takes to get him under contract. We did great without Nylander as well as when Matthews was injured it would not be the same without Marner.

 

[diceman934]

NYR offersheet Marner at $13 mil X 7 years .. Would be too rich for Leafs to match !!

Next to Leafs the NYR are the 2nd richest team so money is no object, their highest paid forward makes $5.35 mil, and projected Cap space is $16 mil for next year (with 19 players already under contract).

They made 3 X 1st round picks last year and have 3 X 1sts this upcoming draft (including picking #2OA after lottery win) = 6 X 1st last 2 years. So giving away 4 X 1st starting in 2020 would matter little to them.

New York market and endorsements might be a place Marner would sign to play.

That is the team I'd be fearful of as they have the motivation and means and the draft capital to make that happen.

He will not sign an offer sheet unless the Leafs tell him they are not signing him to a contract around 10-11 per.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I seriously question how many true Leaf fans post here. People hoping Marner getting offer sheeted and is getting 4 first round picks. Like they will all be top picks. Not a chance will they be. If it was the Islanders he instantly makes them a whole lot better. Same with the Flyers etc.

Next you sign Marner he just scored more points then any other Leaf has in a very long time still playing on his ELC. He is going no where. No way that Shanny will let him go. He gets signed and you make adjustments that is needed to ice a competitive line up.

If trades need to happen to improve our D then they are done. We can even keep Nylander if we shed Marleau otherwise he is likely gone. Hope he has a good World Championship.

He salary cap is going to be what ever it takes to get him under contract. We did great without Nylander as well as when Matthews was injured it would not be the same without Marner.

Market value for such a player is firmly set with the Kucherov contract. Sure, there's tax benefits there, but the fact that 7 ufa years are signed for MORE than offsets that (as well as Kucherov is currently the far better player).

Leaf fans are more than happy to pay Marner fair market value (9.5x8). But not to dramatically overpay. If another team wants to DRAMATICALLY overpay Marner (which I highly highly doubt), we'll be more than happy with the 4 first round picks.
It is what it is.

 

[nuck]

Mitch had a more impressive ELC: played at a 76-point pace over that timeframe, to Rantanen's 71.

Rantanen had a slightly better point pace this season: 96 to Marner's 94.

But assists (even the primary ones) do not equal goals. Mitch is an excellent player but Ranta is better, and Point is better than both.

 

[egd27]

Typical toronto media trolling leaf fans with a Marner offer sheet. Go look at TB. They have 5 million inpotential cap space and gotta sign Point. Then is 2 years Vasilivesky and sergachev.

Go look at Wpg. They gotta sign Trouba, Laine and connor.

So yeah Marner gets a mil more and we lose an AJ or Kappy in a trade but still get somethi g back

Not all doom and gloom like the TO media wants us to believe

Why would you expect the Toronto media to report on TB or Winnipeg?

 

[diceman934]

Market value for such a player is firmly set with the Kucherov contract. Sure, there's tax benefits there, but the fact that 7 ufa years are signed for MORE than offsets that (as well as Kucherov is currently the far better player).

Leaf fans are more than happy to pay Marner fair market value (9.5x8). But not to dramatically overpay. If another team wants to DRAMATICALLY overpay Marner (which I highly highly doubt), we'll be more than happy with the 4 first round picks.
It is what it is.

I am not going to have a long debate with you.

Internal cap is vastly more relevant that external Comparable players.

Look at Tampa for and example you need to compare them to us. Stammer and JT then add in Matthews. Marner is going to get more money then his external comparison players.

Matthews signed for over his value based on a 5 year deal as did Nylander. It comes down to context.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Why would you expect the Toronto media to report on TB or Winnipeg?

I think the point is that the Toronto media is all about the clicks. Offer sheet rumors get a lot of clicks. So now, a false "offer sheet hysteria" has been created in Toronto.

In Winnipeg, the media is far less predominant. So very little is said about offer sheets (even though they're just as susceptible). So NO false "offer sheet hysteria" has been created in Winnipeg.

There's nothing to worry about with these offer sheets.

Kapanen and Johnsson are FAR too unproven to get a 4x3 type offersheet. And no team is willing to give up 4 1st round picks to dramatically overpay Marner.

There is nothing to worry about.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I am not going to have a long debate with you.

Internal cap is vastly more relevant that external Comparable players.

Look at Tampa for and example you need to compare them to us. Stammer and JT then add in Matthews. Marner is going to get more money then his external comparison players.

Matthews signed for over his value based on a 5 year deal as did Nylander. It comes down to context.

So why would another team dramatically overpay for Marner (as well as give up 4 1st round picks) based on Toronto's overpayment of Matthews?
Wouldn't those teams follow their own internal cap structures?

 

[nuck]

I think the point is that the Toronto media is all about the clicks. Offer sheet rumors get a lot of clicks. So now, a false "offer sheet hysteria" has been created in Toronto.

In Winnipeg, the media is far less predominant. So very little is said about offer sheets (even though they're just as susceptible). So NO false "offer sheet hysteria" has been created in Winnipeg.

There's nothing to worry about with these offer sheets.

Kapanen and Johnsson are FAR too unproven to get a 4x3 type offersheet. And no team is willing to give up 4 1st round picks to dramatically overpay Marner.

There is nothing to worry about.

KD has no sac with negotiations. He is already sleepless about offer sheets. His negotiation will be based on their existence and he will overpay Mitch accordingly. Dubas gotta Dubas.

 

[egd27]

I think the point is that the Toronto media is all about the clicks. Offer sheet rumors get a lot of clicks. So now, a false "offer sheet hysteria" has been created in Toronto.

In Winnipeg, the media is far less predominant. So very little is said about offer sheets (even though they're just as susceptible). So NO false "offer sheet hysteria" has been created in Winnipeg.

There's nothing to worry about with these offer sheets.

Kapanen and Johnsson are FAR too unproven to get a 4x3 type offersheet. And no team is willing to give up 4 1st round picks to dramatically overpay Marner.

There is nothing to worry about.

I agree with you about there being nothing to worry about, but I'm not sure why the poster I quoted was calling out the media for reporting a possible (though unlikely) story

 

[horner]

Again, nothing would make me happier than having four first round picks from a bottom barrel team, and 13 extra mil in cap space.
Leafs could sign a defenceman for 6 mil, and another forward for 7. Plus the 4 first round picks.

A dream come true.

We will wish we had Marner when he is gone .
Watching him at the top of the scoring leaders for the next 10 yrs.
Having 1 one of those top 10 picks being in the lottery position.
Getting two average prospects.
It would be one of the worst moves in leaf history .

Let him go for the difference of a million and a half .

For unknowns smart move.

 

[Gabriel426]

I would really wait till Boeser, Point, Laine and others sign before inking Marner, as those guys will set the market for Marner. If Point signs for 9mil, Laine signs for 9mil, Marner ain’t getting anything more than them.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

We will wish we had Marner when he is gone .
Watching him at the top of the scoring leaders for the next 10 yrs.
Having 1 one of those top 10 picks being in the lottery position.
Getting two average prospects.
It would be one of the worst moves in leaf history .

Let him go for the difference of a million and a half .

For unknowns smart move.

It's 4 first round picks as well as 12ish mil in cap space.

The leafs are in such cap hell that it wouldn't be the end of the world.

I'd much prefer if we found a way to keep Marner at a fair price. But overpayment of Marner vs 4 firsts and 12 mil cap space? I'm 50/50.

 

[diceman934]

But assists (even the primary ones) do not equal goals. Mitch is an excellent player but Ranta is better, and Point is better than both.

Not a chance. Look at 5 on 5 stats for the answer. Marner if our pp was even average would have had a lot more points.

 

[diceman934]

I would really wait till Boeser, Point, Laine and others sign before inking Marner, as those guys will set the market for Marner. If Point signs for 9mil, Laine signs for 9mil, Marner ain’t getting anything more than them.

Laine will not be signing a big deal this year at all.

 

[Gabriel426]

NYR offersheet Marner at $13 mil X 7 years .. Would be too rich for Leafs to match !!

Next to Leafs the NYR are the 2nd richest team so money is no object, their highest paid forward makes $5.35 mil, and projected Cap space is $16 mil for next year (with 19 players already under contract).

They made 3 X 1st round picks last year and have 3 X 1sts this upcoming draft (including picking #2OA after lottery win) = 6 X 1st last 2 years. So giving away 4 X 1st starting in 2020 would matter little to them.

New York market and endorsements might be a place Marner would sign to play.

That is the team I'd be fearful of as they have the motivation and means and the draft capital to make that happen.

That’s the team I think might just do it. They have enough 1st rounders to recover.
As for the Leafs, they can turn those 1st into a Dman through trade and then proceed to sign Ferland or maybe get a bargain deal for Simmonds.

 

[diceman934]

So why would another team dramatically overpay for Marner (as well as give up 4 1st round picks) based on Toronto's overpayment of Matthews?
Wouldn't those teams follow their own internal cap structures?

Who said they will. You have though.

 

[Gabriel426]

Laine will not be signing a big deal this year at all.

Won’t that be a good thing for the Leafs if that happens.