Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[DarkKnight]

I'm not trying to take that away from him. The point made was that Marner did just as well with Kadri. To judge that we have to look on even strength production, and that's where you see a big difference.

So what happened was that Marner started to become the elite PP QB he is now, and put up a torrid pace because of it. And then he got Tavares to play with, which brought up his even strength numbers while he produced under more sustainable circumstances.


Good point. I think they are benefiting rather equally; in my haste to disprove, I took a stance I don't stand for. My bad.

JT scored 13 more goals even strength this year than any year in his career, so who exactly brought up who's even stength points? How you look at half the equation and fail to recognize JT, who's been in the league for a decade, just had his best even strength season, shows a serious flaw in your argument. Gee maybe Marner had something to do with it.

 

[Notsince67]

Is Marner off to the worlds?

I don't see his name there yet.

Someone who scores 90 points should be there.

I understand that he wont risk playing without a contract

 

[GLobello]

Marner's my favourite player and for me, he's among my 3 favourite Leafs to watch all-time along with Gilmour and Salming. Having said that, team success is more important to me than anything else and I'll be pissed off if we overpay him. If he asks for too much money and we have to move on from him because of that sure I'll be pissed but it won't be at Dubas.

This is my feelings as well. If Marner's camp holds firm at 10.5-11.5 than either move him or let him go via offersheet and fix your defense. We'll still have two of the best centre's in the game a potential high scoring winger, very good goaltending, and an upgraded D core. Everybody was pissed when the Leafs traded Wendel Clark but that one worked out in the end and this situation can too if it comes to that.

 

[ULF_55]

I understand that he wont risk playing without a contract

So with some players it is just about the money?

 

[Notsince67]

Has nothing to do with Nylander, who has a very manageable contract.

Overpaying Marner by 2 million is the concern.

How so? Assuming Willy increases his points next year to 70 which is almost 15% higher than his career high Marner improves to 100 which is 6% higher, the equivalent contract on points alone is 10MM and that doesnt account for tougher usage and the PK. You really need to stretch the assumptions to make Nylanders contract look better.

 

[Notsince67]

So with some players it is just about the money?

Yup. Might be a 5 to 12MM mistake over 6 years

 

[Menzinger]

JT scored 13 more goals even strength this year than any year in his career, so who exactly brought up who's even stength points? How you look at half the equation and fail to recognize JT, who's been in the league for a decade, just had his best even strength season, shows a serious flaw in your argument. Gee maybe Marner had something to do with it.

He benefited playing with Marner, but just that he really didn't see a noticeable jump in production from when he was playing alongside lesser linemates with the Islanders.

With the Leaf he has the ability to focus on shooting more rather than playmaking due to the composition of his line

 

[ULF_55]

How so? Assuming Willy increases his points next year to 70 which is almost 15% higher than his career high Marner improves to 100 which is 6% higher, the equivalent contract on points alone is 10MM and that doesnt account for tougher usage and the PK. You really need to stretch the assumptions to make Nylanders contract look better.

Hopefully the Leafs get some PK guys for the upcoming season and they can move into the top 10, and overcome the post season historic failure.

 

[ULF_55]

Yup. Might be a 5 to 12MM mistake over 6 years

Somebody should have told those players last year but I suppose they played because they love the game more than the money?

 

[DanM]

JT scored 13 more goals even strength this year than any year in his career, so who exactly brought up who's even stength points? How you look at half the equation and fail to recognize JT, who's been in the league for a decade, just had his best even strength season, shows a serious flaw in your argument. Gee maybe Marner had something to do with it.

Marner had something to do with it for sure, but I also see many people underestimating the impact JT had on Mitch, 25 points above his best season. JT has always made players around him better, how would this year be any different?

They both have great chemistry for sure, but the impact goes both ways.

 

[DanM]

This is my feelings as well. If Marner's camp holds firm at 10.5-11.5 than either move him or let him go via offersheet and fix your defense. We'll still have two of the best centre's in the game a potential high scoring winger, very good goaltending, and an upgraded D core. Everybody was pissed when the Leafs traded Wendel Clark but that one worked out in the end and this situation can too if it comes to that.

I agree, if Mitch is paid 11.5m, we would have zero wiggle room until the cap increases. Theoretically we can still make it work, but we would have zero room for error. We would need to hit on all picks, develop perfectly, and not pay a single role player a penny more than they are worth.

It would be too tight.

 

[The CyNick]

This is my feelings as well. If Marner's camp holds firm at 10.5-11.5 than either move him or let him go via offersheet and fix your defense. We'll still have two of the best centre's in the game a potential high scoring winger, very good goaltending, and an upgraded D core. Everybody was pissed when the Leafs traded Wendel Clark but that one worked out in the end and this situation can too if it comes to that.

The picks will likely be in the 20s so you're not going to get help from those picks for years. JT will be on the backend of his deal before those fruits are on the table.

So then you gotta hope you can package some picks for upgrades on D. But wait, we're cap crunched, so you can maybe only get one $7M+ guy. It's highly unlikely a team will trade a young D on an ELC or team friendly deal for a pick.

It's one of those things that's fun to say, turn assets into an upgrade. But it's hard to put names to these things that make sense for all parties involved.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Take Kadri off it was what I requested.

Kadri taking himself off the PP doesnt count.

Our power play doesn’t work because there are too many left handed shooters. We should have a right handed shooter in the slot for a one timer. Kadri shoots left the puck coming from Mitch has to go all the way across his body for a shot. If Nylander was in the slot Mitch can just flip him a short pass for a one timer. Look at stamkos ovi laine all right handed shots waiting for the one timer. We didn’t have that because Babcock wouldn’t give willy a chance because he held out and Babcock is a guy who doesn’t forgive if he thinks your slighting him.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Our power play doesn’t work because there are too many left handed shooters. We should have a right handed shooter in the slot for a one timer. Kadri shoots left the puck coming from Mitch has to go all the way across his body for a shot. If Nylander was in the slot Mitch can just flip him a short pass for a one timer. Look at stamkos ovi laine all right handed shots waiting for the one timer. We didn’t have that because Babcock wouldn’t give willy a chance because he held out and Babcock is a guy who doesn’t forgive if he thinks your slighting him.

Our PP struggles because the other teams know they only have to defend the pass, so they stay low and keep the box tight. The Leafs PP will suck again next season because they have no one-timer threat from the wing or point,

 

[IBeL34f]

The picks will likely be in the 20s so you're not going to get help from those picks for years. JT will be on the backend of his deal before those fruits are on the table.

So then you gotta hope you can package some picks for upgrades on D. But wait, we're cap crunched, so you can maybe only get one $7M+ guy. It's highly unlikely a team will trade a young D on an ELC or team friendly deal for a pick.

It's one of those things that's fun to say, turn assets into an upgrade. But it's hard to put names to these things that make sense for all parties involved.

If Marner left via offersheet (something I have a hard time foreseeing) how would we still be cap crunched?

I agree with the rest, though - Getting 4 picks for Marner is far from ideal for a team looking to compete right now.

 

[Notsince67]

Somebody should have told those players last year but I suppose they played because they love the game more than the money?

Maybe they love the game for the money

 

[Notsince67]

If Marner left via offersheet (something I have a hard time foreseeing) how would we still be cap crunched?

I agree with the rest, though - Getting 4 picks for Marner is far from ideal for a team looking to compete right now.

Hold on there. For people advocating for the leafs to take an offersheet, they preface it with acquiring a panarin who will likely be looking for 12MM on a team like the leafs. Things are so dire if Marner gets 11 but apparently it is better with Panarin at 12MM.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Hold on there. For people advocating for the leafs to take an offersheet, they preface it with acquiring a panarin who will likely be looking for 12MM on a team like the leafs. Things are so dire if Marner gets 11 but apparently it is better with Panarin at 12MM.

It’s Panarin + 4 1sts or just Marner.

I’m not saying that’s what the leafs should be striving for... but Marner being offer sheeted isn’t the end of the world.

I still don’t think there is a chance in hell it happens though.

 

[DarkKnight]

He benefited playing with Marner, but just that he really didn't see a noticeable jump in production from when he was playing alongside lesser linemates with the Islanders.

With the Leaf he has the ability to focus on shooting more rather than playmaking due to the composition of his line

He scored 13 more even strength goals, it was his PP production that hadn't improved. That's a eye popping jump. That's not a noticeable jump?

Man.

 

[The CyNick]

If Marner left via offersheet (something I have a hard time foreseeing) how would we still be cap crunched?

I agree with the rest, though - Getting 4 picks for Marner is far from ideal for a team looking to compete right now.

If we sign Marner we have to shed something like $5M. Like trade Brown, let Gards and Hainsey walk, and then trade one of AJ/Kap, Marleau or Zaits. The last two guys will be very difficult to move.

If we lose Mitch, now you keep the Browns, Kaps, AJ's, but if you're upgrading the D, the assumption would be the $5M or so we are now under goes towards an upgrade on D. And that's without resigning a guy like Gardiner. So it could be even you just keep Gardiner.

It would improve the future pipeline with the picks but do very little good in the short term.

 

[DarkKnight]

Marner had something to do with it for sure, but I also see many people underestimating the impact JT had on Mitch, 25 points above his best season. JT has always made players around him better, how would this year be any different?

They both have great chemistry for sure, but the impact goes both ways.

It was a mutual benefit.

And the hilarity is good players play with good players, so is this some unique benefit? I don't get it.

 

[Brown Dog]

I think Panarin as a UFA is going to get stupid money. Maybe more than McDavid.

 

[ULF_55]

If Marner left via offersheet (something I have a hard time foreseeing) how would we still be cap crunched?

I agree with the rest, though - Getting 4 picks for Marner is far from ideal for a team looking to compete right now.

Leafs only have to compete with other teams for UFA's.
I doubt UFA's are going to say they have to make as much as Tavares or Matthews.

I'm sure the Leafs are looking at everything right now, including offersheets and trades.

It would be ideal to have Marner signed for a reasonable contract (less than 10), or traded before July 1st.

Obviously, those 4 1st. round picks wouldn't help without turning them into something, but they are still useful currency.

Leafs can afford a reasonable contract and that reasonable money would be what could land a top UFA.

 

[IBeL34f]

If we sign Marner we have to shed something like $5M. Like trade Brown, let Gards and Hainsey walk, and then trade one of AJ/Kap, Marleau or Zaits. The last two guys will be very difficult to move.

If we lose Mitch, now you keep the Browns, Kaps, AJ's, but if you're upgrading the D, the assumption would be the $5M or so we are now under goes towards an upgrade on D. And that's without resigning a guy like Gardiner. So it could be even you just keep Gardiner.

It would improve the future pipeline with the picks but do very little good in the short term.

Gotcha! Thanks

 

[The CyNick]

Leafs only have to compete with other teams for UFA's.
I doubt UFA's are going to say they have to make as much as Tavares or Matthews.

I'm sure the Leafs are looking at everything right now, including offersheets and trades.

It would be ideal to have Marner signed for a reasonable contract (less than 10), or traded before July 1st.

Obviously, those 4 1st. round picks wouldn't help without turning them into something, but they are still useful currency.

Leafs can afford a reasonable contract and that reasonable money would be what could land a top UFA.

Which top UFA though? EK?