Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[ACC1224]

He is the Leafs best player. Let’s be honest here. Marner carried the team for most of the season and he played a huge role. On the pp and pk while playing against the leagues best players all year. Mathews got more favourable matchups and despite this did not score more points per game then Marner nor did his linemate pwho did not play on the pk thus having more energy for 5on5 play. If Marner was not playing on the pk he would have had more points. He was worn down by seasons end playing hard minutes on a bad pk. Marners pk minutes increased when we traded away a pk player that Babs used a lot to Winnipeg for Petan.

I think a lot of his teammates feel the same way which is why he will be paid comparable to Matthews.
Dressing room harmony.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Tavares had a 4 point improvement from upgrading Bailey to Marner.
Marner had a 25 point improvement from upgrading Bozak/Kadri to Tavares.

They're both excellent players who fit very well together, but it seems clear to me which one is benefiting most. As for outproducing, the two had equal amount of points at even strength so I'm not sure that argument works either. Are you seriously calling the idea that playing with a franchise center might be a boost for Marner a joke?

Or maybe Marner is now a year older, already put that 90pt pace with Kadri for half a season, and OUTSCORED the person that "carried" him.
It's funny with Marner, no advanced stats pumping his tires from many of the same posters who could find obscenely obscure stats before.
Please tell me the effects of "Boost" that Matthews had on Nylander. Was 60pts inflated due to playing with a franchise center????

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Agree on the first paragraph, disagree on the second. From what I've heard, Nylander would have been signed before season started if they had offered him the $7M over 6 years deal at that point. It's an average contract that both parties could be fine with. Dubas tried to make him come in at significantly lower than that, failed, and the cost was a pretty ruined season for Willy. Nothing wrong with the contract, but the way it was handled has to go down as a fail for him.

.

Ya, if Dubas thought $7 m X 6 years was a good contract all along, why does Shanny need to say the things he did about players being reasonable, and why wasn't the contract signed before the season began? Makes no sense.

Why do folks feel the need to defend management on everything they do? Are they not human and can they not be expected to make mistakes from time to time?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Again, Nylander's salary this coming season is 700k after the bonuses are paid, plus 6 mill per for the remaining years, nylander cap hit being close to 7 mill means nothing when the actual salary is 6 mill, any team whether its toronto or some other team will navigate and work with that easily.

Right now it doesn't matter what he was paid yesterday the only thing that matters is what he is being paid tomorrow.

AAV and contract term matter.

 

[Mess]

I'd rather have marner than 2 five million dollar players.

If that is the case then perhaps dealing $7 mil Nylander and $3 mil Kapanen for 2 five million dollar Dmen becomes Plan B.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Leafs advantage is big market team with endless money and the ability to front load and payout signing bonuses and structure contracts to their own and players liking. Small market teams, budget teams and non traditional hockey markets have to use other tools like state tax breaks to their advantage to lure and sign players.

The downside of being rich like Toronto is that players that want to sign deals with Leafs like Marner, Matthews, Tavares etc know Leafs have the ability to pay more than other markets and have a real desire to freely spend in hopes of winning..

That is why Leafs players and their agents don't use market comparable players of small market teams or tax break states as their comparables, they simply use the Toronto market and Leafs depth chart and where they see their player ranking and getting paid accordingly. JT signing set the Leafs market at $11 mil now Auston argued and won and said I'm better and younger and deserve more than Johnny, and now Mitch is up and he too is using his teammates and where he fits on the depth chart as his negotiating position.

It wouldn't even likely matter if the NHL CBA tax adjusted the Toronto market, the players would still ask for top $$, and if it wasn't tax breaks they would simply argue cost of living is higher in TO than TB or Dallas. Try and buy a similar house in TO, TB or Dallas and you would see what I mean.

ie If Marner took the Kucherov deal, and the CBA adjusted for taxes for players that both took home identical net pay, then Mitch buying his house in Toronto for $1 mil and Kucherov getting the same home for $500k in TB, would say he needs more take home money to offset that, and so on and so forth ..

I'd also say that motivation for an agent could be to get best deal for their client from one of the richest organizations in the NHL (and professional sports). That would be something you'd like to market & promote to potential new clients you'd think ......

 

[HoweHullOrr]

What was wrong?

Lou didn't give 6.25M to Marleau for 3 years on a 35+ contract with an NMC?
Lou didn't give 4.5M to Zaitsev for 7 years after 1 year in the NHL?
Lou didn't trade a 2nd rounder for Boyle?
Lou didn't trade a 2nd rounder for Plekanec?

Lou didn't cave into the demands of Marleau, Zaitsev, Yzerman and Plekanec when he easily could have just not made those foolish deals?

Dubas didn't wait Nylander out and end up getting him for 7M when reports indicated he was asking for 8.5?
Nylander didn't call at the last minute and take the deal that was on the table?

Seems like Lou is the one that doesn't have the stomach to say "No" when demands are unreasonable.

I ask the question - who cares? Both Lou and Kyle are/were GMs of the TML. We have to live with the consequences of both of these people.

 

[Sypher04]

The very fact it took until December to even get to 7M AAV tells me that it probably wouldn't have happened before the season at that number despite the reports out there from people who, let's be honest, really don't know anything about this. What we do know, for fact, is that Kyle Dubas was not the one who phoned with minutes left to get the deal done at 7M, that clearly indicates to me that the bigger movement to get this done was Nylander's camp coming down to get to that number, not that the Leafs came up.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

If that is the case then perhaps dealing $7 mil Nylander and $3 mil Kapanen for 2 five million dollar Dmen becomes Plan B.

Marleau + Z would be ideal, not Nylander.

Pretty stupid plan to sign a guy a bit high, have him miss 1/3 of the season, play him with scrubs, and sell at his all time lowest value.

 

[Sypher04]

He is the Leafs best player. Let’s be honest here. Marner carried the team for most of the season and he played a huge role. On the pp and pk while playing against the leagues best players all year. Mathews got more favourable matchups and despite this did not score more points per game then Marner nor did his linemate pwho did not play on the pk thus having more energy for 5on5 play. If Marner was not playing on the pk he would have had more points. He was worn down by seasons end playing hard minutes on a bad pk. Marners pk minutes increased when we traded away a pk player that Babs used a lot to Winnipeg for Petan.

I think one can make an argument either way as to which of Matthews or Marner is the better player. It's certainly not decisive in either direction. That said, I'm not sure what good that really does to debate as much as people here try. Both are fantastic players and neither one has reached their ceiling yet. I think most people generally would agree they should be paid similarly IF wingers and centers had history of being paid at the same level. Maybe that trend is about to change in the NHL, maybe it isn't. Right now comparables would dictate that Marner's contract would come in below Matthews' but who knows how this all plays out tbh.

 

[Deebo]

I ask the question - who cares? Both Lou and Kyle are/were GMs of the TML. We have to live with the consequences of both of these people.

Just correcting those who seem to think Dubas' actions are what have the put the Leafs in the cap bind they are in and that somehow we'd be better off if Lou was still here.

Some of those same posters used to talk about past GM mistakes for years after they left and now refuse to acknowledge the issues that Lou's blunders have caused for the current team.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Or maybe Marner is now a year older, already put that 90pt pace with Kadri for half a season, and OUTSCORED the person that "carried" him.
It's funny with Marner, no advanced stats pumping his tires from many of the same posters who could find obscenely obscure stats before.
Please tell me the effects of "Boost" that Matthews had on Nylander. Was 60pts inflated due to playing with a franchise center????

1) Marner definitely improved.
2) He put up a 90 point pace because our PP1 got smoking hot. His even strength production improved significantly from playing with Kadri to Tavares.
3) I addressed the point about outscoring in the very post you quoted.
4) I have not made any claim that Tavares carried him. In fact, I pointed out that none of them did. I just find it silly that some claim Tavares has not helped Marner at all.
5) What obscenely obscure stats are you referencing? I'm pretty sure Marner will be doing well in them regardless.
5) Nylander has nothing to do with the topic. But yes, obviously playing with a franchise center helps. That's why Matthews and Nylander was one of the best producing even strength duos in the league last year.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Just correcting those who seem to think Dubas' actions are what have the put the Leafs in the cap bind they are in and that somehow we'd be better off if Lou was still here.

Some of those same posters used to talk about past GM mistakes for years after they left and now refuse to acknowledge the issues that Lou's blunders have caused for the current team.

OK - no worries. I guess I'm more interested in what's going to happen from this point forward.

In my mind, if you perform your job for a period of time, you're bound to make a mistake (or mistakes) at some point. "To err is human" as they say. The only people who don't make errors are the ones that do nothing.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Marleau + Z would be ideal, not Nylander.

Pretty stupid plan to sign a guy a bit high, have him miss 1/3 of the season, play him with scrubs, and sell at his all time lowest value.

Ideal = yes.

Harder to do without consequences (incentives for our trading partners), also = Yes!

 

[ULF_55]

Ideal = yes. Harder to do without consequences (incentives for our trading partners), also = Yes!

I would include a 1st. round pick to move Marleau.

IMO it is worth it to recover the cap.

Especially if Marner is drastically over paid.

 

[IBeL34f]

I think one can make an argument either way as to which of Matthews or Marner is the better player. It's certainly not decisive in either direction. That said, I'm not sure what good that really does to debate as much as people here try. Both are fantastic players and neither one has reached their ceiling yet. I think most people generally would agree they should be paid similarly IF wingers and centers had history of being paid at the same level. Maybe that trend is about to change in the NHL, maybe it isn't. Right now comparables would dictate that Marner's contract would come in below Matthews' but who knows how this all plays out tbh.

I'm a massive Marner fan, but it still seems to me that Matthews is The Guy in Toronto - He's not always as exciting to watch on the surface as Marner is, but he's scored goals at a higher rate than anyone else in the League over the course of his ELC, he plays the tougher position, and Marner barely out-produced him this year (P/60 - Adjusted for SHTOI) while playing with Tavares all season. All this while Matthews has missed 34 games over the last 2 seasons to injury.
Frankly, Matthews seems to be getting criminally underrated around here.

The beauty, though, is that we have both. And, as you mentioned, neither have reached the peaks of their respective careers - They should only keep going up from here.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Tavares had a 4 point improvement from upgrading Bailey to Marner.
Marner had a 25 point improvement from upgrading Bozak/Kadri to Tavares.

They're both excellent players who fit very well together, but it seems clear to me which one is benefiting most. As for outproducing, the two had equal amount of points at even strength so I'm not sure that argument works either. Are you seriously calling the idea that playing with a franchise center might be a boost for Marner a joke?

Tavares the elite goal scorer got paired with Marner the elite playmaker.

This resulted in Tavares getting FAR more goals than he’s ever gotten, and Marner getting FAR more points.

Tavares career average in goals is 30 (34 if you minus out injury seasons) He just scored 47.

 

[Mess]

Especially if Marner is drastically over paid.

Although a lot of fans won't like it, but it might be in the Leafs best interest long-term if another team does OS Marner to an amount that Leafs simply can't match. It might save the Leafs GM from himself.

Leafs not spending the $10 mil + themselves, but getting 4 X 1st round picks in exchange goes a long way to find quality young and cheap talent from the draft and build around the teams 2 X big #1Cs.

That cap space saved invested in improving the team around JT and AM.

If we're trading 2019 1st X 2 X former 2nd round picked prospects for Muzzin, and another 2020 1st to dump Marleau then where is all these surrounding players going to come from after AM + JT + MM + WN eat up 1/2 the cap for just 4 X forwards?

Losing MM to an offersheet would give the Leafs some breathing room and free cap to try and build up and improve the Dcore and have 4 X 1st rounders in the pipeline over time.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Who are the best right wingers in the game? Compare Marner to them. I’m not comparing apples to oranges any more (other words not comparing him to Matthews).

Compare and come up with a number.

 

[Deebo]

If we're trading 2019 1st X 2 X former 2nd round picked prospects for Muzzin, and another 2020 1st to dump Marleau then where is all these surrounding players going to come from after AM + JT + MM + WN eat up 1/2 the cap for just 4 X forwards?

Wouldn't 2 additional 2nd round drafted prospects be useful right now?

Too bad Lou had to piss those away for 4th line rentals.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Who are the best right wingers in the game? Compare Marner to them. I’m not comparing apples to oranges any more (other words not comparing him to Matthews).

Compare and come up with a number.

It is tough because Kuch just signed a contract that kick in this upcoming year at 9.5 million for 8 years and buys 7 UFA and all signs point to Mitch getting more AAV and giving up like 1 or 2 UFA years.

Seems pretty grim when you compare it to other top end wingers.

 

[Mess]

Who are the best right wingers in the game? Compare Marner to them. I’m not comparing apples to oranges any more (other words not comparing him to Matthews).

Compare and come up with a number.

McKenzie weighs in on the chances Marner signs the same deal as Matthews

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Who are the best right wingers in the game? Compare Marner to them. I’m not comparing apples to oranges any more (other words not comparing him to Matthews).

Compare and come up with a number.

Marners closest comparable would be Rantanen.

In the real world, both would sign for far less than Kucherov, due to him putting up far more points and signing 7 ufa years.

But the leafs aren’t dealing with the real word. They’re dealing with the Dubas world.

Marner will make significantly more than Kucherov. Many leaf fans here will make lame excuses for it (because that’s what they do best)... but it will be flat out unprecedented.

Rantanen doesn’t have Dubas as his gm, so he’ll probably have to settle for a fair market deal for less than what Kucherov signed for.

 

[ULF_55]

Marners closest comparable would be Rantanen.

In the real world, both would sign for far less than Kucherov, due to him putting up far more points and signing 7 ufa years.

But the leafs aren’t dealing with the real word. They’re dealing with the Dubas world.

Marner will make significantly more than Kucherov. Many leaf fans here will make lame excuses for it (because that’s what they do best)... but it will be flat out unprecedented.

Rantanen doesn’t have Dubas as his gm, so he’ll probably have to settle for a fair market deal for less than what Kucherov signed for.

8.5 for Draisaitl would be nice right about now.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Wouldn't 2 additional 2nd round drafted prospects be useful right now?

Too bad Lou had to piss those away for 4th line rentals.

You will really lose it if Muzzin walks next summer eh?