Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Randy Randerson]

I would think most of the ones following hockey so closely in the summer would be the ones listening to those shows.
The average fan isn't worrying about such things.

a lot of the call ins to these shows are definitely what I would characterize as "average fans", drive time radio still has a big listenership. I think average fans are more emotional than most of HFLeafs, but also have shorter memories

 

[ShaneFalco]

ACC with the pulse on society

 

[ACC1224]

Someone needs to start a movement and get a rally going in front of the ACC.
Get a big toilet and flush their iPhones.
That'll show Marner and Apple.

 

[IPS]

If you are following my lead, make sure to CC your messages to Ferris and Marner himself. Added pressure when they know fans are actively messaging their sponsors.

I'd say to do the same thing with Ferris' other clients.. just start smacking their endorsers (if they even have any, lol).

Maybe we can get Mitch to fire the man.

This fanbase can be so god damn awesome sometimes.

Someone needs to start a movement and get a rally going in front of the ACC.
Get a big toilet and flush their iPhones.
That'll show Marner and Apple.

Support your Maple Leafs cup aspirations by switching to Samsung!

 

[ACC1224]

a lot of the call ins to these shows are definitely what I would characterize as "average fans", drive time radio still has a big listenership. I think average fans are more emotional than most of HFLeafs, but also have shorter memories

Yeah, just my impression perhaps it is a little more widespread.
Seems from what I've read the ones with the biggest froth are forming their impressions on a bunch of imagined information.
They are entertaining though.

 

[Dough72]

Someone needs to start a movement and get a rally going in front of the ACC.
Get a big toilet and flush their iPhones.
That'll show Marner and Apple.

are those the iPhones that recharge if you put them in the microwave? Not a lot of people know you can do that so just pointing it out

 

[57 Years No Cup]

its as high as they would loke to go? and would only like to in case of offersheet? seems pretty reasonable to me. If no offersheet they try to get him lower.

Marner at $10.5M would be my ceiling too, i would be ok with it not happy its an overpay but not too much

EXACTLY. $10.516 is the number I've been predicting all along.

 

[Walshy7]

I've yet to see anyone have an issue with Marner other than here.
I think the views held here represent such a small percentage of the fan base that it really has no affect.

you haven't been reading twitter comments after a Paul dreger post then. there are a lot closer to 50-50 on most social media posts than just a minority here

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm really not a fan of the conduct that Marner camp has had so far. I don't appreciate using OS as threats either. But I think there's some perspective needed here. It's still very possible that he's signed to a fair contract in time for camp to start. And if that happens, all that has happened are fairly minor. I think a lot of us simply need to take a vacation from the Leafs over the summer, we can worry when it's time for camp, be upset in time for regular season to start.

 

[CDN24]

I would think paying a player during a potential work stoppage, wouldn't be something MLSE would be on board with on just a 2 year deal, where Marner would once again be unsigned coming out of it. IMO

What value is there to MLSE Owners and shareholders to pay Marner millions to sit at home and play video games during a potential work stoppage?

If its say 2 years @$8 mil per, you're essentially potential paying Marner $16 mil for 1 season of work, with a lockout eating up the other year of service. Then right back to where you're at today in 3 years time and in another contract negotiation.

So that wouldn't be something Dubas is likely to toss on the table as an option, but rather use it as leverage, so Marner signs for 3 or more, as a 1 year deal means Marner is not getting paid to sit home and not play so he also would want his contract to expand beyond the potential lockout.

Only paying him if it is all bonus money. Would a 2 year deal make sense if there is minimal lockout protection in year 2? Using a 2 year 16M total would something like

10M/6M work with no bonus in yr 2 (marner guarentees 10M in year 1) cash does not matter to leafs its cap hit. Marner probably does not like the lower number at back end as basis for qualifying offer or arbitration.
Or $7M/9M (same 8M AAV) with 3M of year 2 as bonus and guarenteed to be paid to him (same 10M as above) but Now a 9M base for QO or arbitration.

There has to be a way to structure a 2 year deal that fits both. MLSE should not mind a few extra dollars pd in potential lockout year if it keeps AAV down.

 

[Walshy7]

EXACTLY. $10.516 is the number I've been predicting all along.

i say f*** him and his $16K on top, $10.5 is it

 

[Mess]

He wouldn't offer it because there is zero chance Marner would sign it.

So process of elimination it appears.

Dubas will not offer 2, 4 or 5 year terms as their not in his/teams best interest. Marner would not sign 1, nor 7 and 8 year deals (because he wants similar money for shorter term)

That leaves only 3 years and 6 year deals options where both sides have equal gain and now it just comes down to how much money Marner is willing to sign for on those terms and Dubas willing to offer.

If Dubas current rumoured offer is $10.5 mil X 8 and you take off - $500k for each declining year that makes it;

$10.5 mil X 8 & $10 mil X 7, and $9.5 mil X 6 and $9 mil X 5 and $8.5 mil X 4 and $8 mil X 3, and $7.5 mil X 2 and $7 mil X 1 ..... taking out all the terms neither is offering/accepting..

We're left with $9.5 mil X 6 or $8 mil X 3 and is Marner going to accept either of those options?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah, just my impression perhaps it is a little more widespread.
Seems from what I've read the ones with the biggest froth are forming their impressions on a bunch of imagined information.
They are entertaining though.

well I'm sort of among them, I'm going to find it hard to romanticize Marner as a Leaf after this. And I did consciously know before that it's a business, but the (widely believed, that could change) unwillingness to take a deal that makes sense against the market rather than just one of his team mates really puts a damper on the story for me. I'm sure he'll be here for a long time and even if he signed the contract he's looking for that he would probably play up to it, but now he's just a hired gun like Nylander in my eyes.

 

[ACC1224]

you haven't been reading twitter comments after a Paul dreger post then. there are a lot closer to 50-50 on most social media posts than just a minority here

Yes I've seen misinformed opinions based on 'thoughts'.

 

[Havoc]

I wasn't comparing Pastrnak's elc to MARNER'S. I was comparing it to Nylanders. And in those comparison threads, Pastrnaks final season was CONSTANTLY called an outlier compared to his first 2 seasons. Afterall, I was told that's what ALWAYS happens when a final elc season is far better than the first two.

I'm going to be CONSISTENT with that, and say that this should also apply to Marner's final season.

Also, if Pastrnaks linemates are considered part of the equation when comparing to Nylander, then in being CONSISTENT with that, compare Marner's linemates to Aho's. Aho just signed for 8.5x5.

i DEMAND consistency on that. i DEMAND it.

The consistency exists with all players mentioned. Also the line mates thing is used on this board for Nylander's future numbers and future potential. It's not relavant to contract discussion. I only said that to show how better Marner was compared to Pastrnak during their ELC years.

Scheifele breaks out in his third year after not doing much in his first two years...gets 6 mil. Basically set the precedent for ELC players that can put up a 60 point season with no regression. Especially if you consider Mackinnon's ELC production got him 6.3 mil the same year. A year later, Pastrnak takes 6.6 after following a similar projection of Scheifele's. This precedent extends to Larkin and Meier as well. One 60 point season during ELC got their contracts into the 6 mil range.

Not everything works linearly either so numbers need to be taken within a certain context especially when venturing outside of ELC numbers. For example, Gaudreau's ELC production got him 6.75. He follows up his new contract with 18 goals. Pastrnak is now up for a new contract. He sees Gaudreau production dip to 18 goals. Perfect opportunity to get that extra 600k more than Scheifele. Agent makes a case about potential, the fact Scheifele needed two years of development before making the team and Pastrnak's shot that makes a goal regression unlikely etc. Actually, even if Gaudreau had no dip in his goal production, the fact Scheifele couldn't crack the roster until his third try is more than enough to get Pasta the extra 600k. If Gaudreau followed up his new contract with 80+ points, Pastrnak probably makes a push for some extra dollars based off potential since he has a better shot than Gaudreau.

Yes Gaudreau ended up showing his contract was a steal but nobody knew that yet during this specific time period so the consistency still isn't broken. Just like how Nylander can easily run and gun with Matthews next season and put up numbers that make his contract a steal. There's nothing inconsistent with Nylander's current deal. His ELC was better than Pasta, Larkin, Scheifele and even Mackinnon.

Consistency doesn't break if we move towards Marner. Way ahead of Pastrnak, Nylander and Gaudreau coming out of ELC.

Took Blake Wheeler his whole life to jump from 70 to 90. Marner did it during ELC. Wheeler signed last year. Marner already has precedent to be around 8 mil minimum. Their stats are almost the exact same if you compare Wheelers last two seasons before his new contract to Marner's final two. Moderate goal scorers but elite play makers.


Consistency will horribly break if Marner gets Matthews money or gets paid like an elite goal scorer as well as an elite play maker. This hasn't happened yet so let's wait and see. What we DO know is Marner was always worth Wheeler minimum (8.25) which has now changed to Aho minimum.


You will probably be able to find counter arguments to my examples however the main point is that precedent/consistency does exist for whatever case you want to make.

 

[ACC1224]

well I'm sort of among them, I'm going to find it hard to romanticize Marner as a Leaf after this. And I did consciously know before that it's a business, but the (widely believed, that could change) unwillingness to take a deal that makes sense against the market rather than just one of his team mates really puts a damper on the story for me. I'm sure he'll be here for a long time and even if he signed the contract he's looking for that he would probably play up to it, but now he's just a hired gun like Nylander in my eyes.

They are all hired guns.
Best approach IMO, is to only believe news that you 100% trust. None of that will be found on twitter.

 

[Randy Randerson]

They are all hired guns.
Best approach IMO, is to only believe news that you 100% trust. None of that will be found on twitter.

They are in a way, like I understand guys wanting to be paid what's fair given the market. But if the ask for Marner is true that's nothing more than maneuvering for more than the market rate. And I agree that rationally we shouldn't romanticize any of them, but if you take the emotion out of sports fandom doesn't the purpose sort of disintegrate?

We're following a team owned by a private business that owns rights to a territory that we happen to fall into within a privately owned league. If you look at it entirely rationally, the premise of supporting the team at all goes up in smoke for me

 

[ACC1224]

I'm really not a fan of the conduct that Marner camp has had so far. I don't appreciate using OS as threats either. But I think there's some perspective needed here. It's still very possible that he's signed to a fair contract in time for camp to start. And if that happens, all that has happened are fairly minor. I think a lot of us simply need to take a vacation from the Leafs over the summer, we can worry when it's time for camp, be upset in time for regular season to start.

Seems more like a statement of reality than a threat.
The twitters made it seem much more evil than it actually is.

Marner, Ferris and Dubas all know he wants to stay here and the Team wants him to be here.
There is no animosity.

 

[Walshy7]

Yes I've seen misinformed opinions based on 'thoughts'.

"I've yet to see anyone have an issue with Marner other than here.
I think the views held here represent such a small percentage of the fan base that it really has no affect"

that was the post i quoted, i said people clearly have an issue with marner and team outside of here. That is all nothing to do with the relevance of dregers particular tweet in the comments many people aren't happy with Marner, so the initial post i quoted (and again above) is wrong that's all im saying.

Dreger is also very clearly getting fed info from Ferris too but that is an aside to this conversation

 

[ACC1224]

They are in a way, like I understand guys wanting to be paid what's fair given the market. But if the ask for Marner is true that's nothing more than maneuvering for more than the market rate. And I agree that rationally we shouldn't romanticize any of them, but if you take the emotion out of sports fandom doesn't the purpose sort of disintegrate?

We're following a team owned by a private business that owns rights to a territory that we happen to fall into within a privately owned league. If you look at it entirely rationally, the premise of supporting the team at all goes up in smoke for me

Save the emotion for game night.
Whatever he eventually signs for will be deemed 'fair' by both sides regardless of what some here decide is fair.

 

[ACC1224]

"I've yet to see anyone have an issue with Marner other than here.
I think the views held here represent such a small percentage of the fan base that it really has no affect"

that was the post i quoted, i said people clearly have an issue with marner and team outside of here. That is all nothing to do with the relevance of dregers particular tweet in the comments many people aren't happy with Marner, so the initial post i quoted (and again above) is wrong that's all im saying.

Dreger is also very clearly getting fed info from Ferris too but that is an aside to this conversation

How is it wrong? Are you claiming to know what "I've yet to see"?

 

[Mess]

Only paying him if it is all bonus money. Would a 2 year deal make sense if there is minimal lockout protection in year 2? Using a 2 year 16M total would something like

10M/6M work with no bonus in yr 2 (marner guarentees 10M in year 1) cash does not matter to leafs its cap hit. Marner probably does not like the lower number at back end as basis for qualifying offer or arbitration.
Or $7M/9M (same 8M AAV) with 3M of year 2 as bonus and guarenteed to be paid to him (same 10M as above) but Now a 9M base for QO or arbitration.

There has to be a way to structure a 2 year deal that fits both. MLSE should not mind a few extra dollars pd in potential lockout year if it keeps AAV down.

I see your line of thinking here, but I'm assuming that if there is a lockout your basing that strategy above based on players/Marner not getting paid during a lockout year by making it base salary and not bonus money (lockout proof) in year #2.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Save the emotion for game night.
Whatever he eventually signs for will be deemed 'fair' by both sides regardless of what some here decide is fair.

either that or he'll be gone, but I don't like the approach he's taken and that pierces the veil for me, so unless something really changes it just won't be Marner at the top of my totem pole of favourites any more.

on the flip side, the Tavares story is the opposite

 

[Walshy7]

How is it wrong? Are you claiming to know what "I've yet to see"?

ohhh so you aren't looking, right so why make the comment then? Its like saying "im not sure the sun is shining today" while only sitting in your windowless office

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The consistency exists with all players mentioned. Also the line mates thing is used on this board for Nylander's future numbers and future potential. It's not relavant to contract discussion. I only said that to show how better Marner was compared to Pastrnak during their ELC years.

Scheifele breaks out in his third year after not doing much in his first two years...gets 6 mil. Basically set the precedent for ELC players that can put up a 60 point season with no regression. Especially if you consider Mackinnon's ELC production got him 6.3 mil the same year. A year later, Pastrnak takes 6.6 after following a similar projection of Scheifele's. This precedent extends to Larkin and Meier as well. One 60 point season during ELC got their contracts into the 6 mil range.

Not everything works linearly either so numbers need to be taken within a certain context especially when venturing outside of ELC numbers. For example, Gaudreau's ELC production got him 6.75. He follows up his new contract with 18 goals. Pastrnak is now up for a new contract. He sees Gaudreau production dip to 18 goals. Perfect opportunity to get that extra 600k more than Scheifele. Agent makes a case about potential, the fact Scheifele needed two years of development before making the team and Pastrnak's shot that makes a goal regression unlikely etc. Actually, even if Gaudreau had no dip in his goal production, the fact Scheifele couldn't crack the roster until his third try is more than enough to get Pasta the extra 600k. If Gaudreau followed up his new contract with 80+ points, Pastrnak probably makes a push for some extra dollars based off potential since he has a better shot than Gaudreau.

Yes Gaudreau ended up showing his contract was a steal but nobody knew that yet during this specific time period so the consistency still isn't broken. Just like how Nylander can easily run and gun with Matthews next season and put up numbers that make his contract a steal. There's nothing inconsistent with Nylander's current deal. His ELC was better than Pasta, Larkin, Scheifele and even Mackinnon.

Consistency doesn't break if we move towards Marner. Way ahead of Pastrnak, Nylander and Gaudreau coming out of ELC.

Took Blake Wheeler his whole life to jump from 70 to 90. Marner did it during ELC. Wheeler signed last year. Marner already has precedent to be around 8 mil minimum. Their stats are almost the exact same if you compare Wheelers last two seasons before his new contract to Marner's final two. Moderate goal scorers but elite play makers.


Consistency will horribly break if Marner gets Matthews money or gets paid like an elite goal scorer as well as an elite play maker. This hasn't happened yet so let's wait and see. What we DO know is Marner was always worth Wheeler minimum (8.25) which has now changed to Aho minimum.


You will probably be able to find counter arguments to my examples however the main point is that precedent/consistency does exist for whatever case you want to make.

As long as that actually is the precedent, then I'm fine with it. Which means, as you wrote, that Marner shouldn't be paid as a 94 point player because he only did it once on his elc (just like Pastrnak wasn't paid as a 34 goal/70 point player, because he did it only once).

My problem is, that for a lot of posters here (and maybe Dubas himself), the narrative for how a player is paid keeps changing depending on which leaf player we're discussing.

With 20 goal Nylander vs 34 goal Pastrnak, goals weren't allowed to count in the slightest. It was just points.

Then with Matthews, it was JUST goals. Points didn't matter in the slightest when looking at comparables.

Now with Marner, we're back to goals just not counting again (pretty much every one of his rfa comparable this year scores significantly more goals).

It seems Dubas finds each individual leaf players strength, and uses THAT to figure out how to pay them. Ignoring each leaf players faults and each comparable players strengths is just a silly way to negotiate.

I think what you've proven to be by the end of your elc is how you should be paid. So Pastrnak deserved a lot more than Nylander, and Marner deservers HUGE money for his 94 points.
However, that is NOT the precedent that's been set. So Marner should be in or around the Aho contract.