Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[KPower]

10.5x5 will be the number...

an overpay compared to around the league but fair considering Matthew’s contract.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Just stopped in to say...good for you guys for following this odyssey of nonsense on a daily basis despite no real end being evident for several more weeks.

I'm proud of y'all.

Carry on.

 

[al secord]

are those the iPhones that recharge if you put them in the microwave? Not a lot of people know you can do that so just pointing it out

You owe me a phone!

 

[zeke]

As long as that actually is the precedent, then I'm fine with it. Which means, as you wrote, that Marner shouldn't be paid as a 94 point player because he only did it once on his elc (just like Pastrnak wasn't paid as a 34 goal/70 point player, because he did it only once).

My problem is, that for a lot of posters here (and maybe Dubas himself), the narrative for how a player is paid keeps changing depending on which leaf player we're discussing.

With 20 goal Nylander vs 34 goal Pastrnak, goals weren't allowed to count in the slightest. It was just points.

Then with Matthews, it was JUST goals. Points didn't matter in the slightest when looking at comparables.

Now with Marner, we're back to goals just not counting again (pretty much every one of his rfa comparable this year scores significantly more goals).

It seems Dubas finds each individual leaf players strength, and uses THAT to figure out how to pay them. Ignoring each leaf players faults and each comparable players strengths is just a silly way to negotiate.

I think what you've proven to be by the end of your elc is how you should be paid. So Pastrnak deserved a lot more than Nylander, and Marner deservers HUGE money for his 94 points.
However, that is NOT the precedent that's been set. So Marner should be in or around the Aho contract.

oh is all you wanted was CONSISTENCY which explained the matthews, nylander, and impending Marner contracts?

why didn't you just ask?

here you go:


Here is the ELC performance of all $5+m (or expected $5+m) forwards, in the last 3 years (including this one), sorted into approximate order and approximate groupings based on actual performance:

C McDavid (22, 12.5): 222gms, ES 16:13 (A+ qoc), 2.93p/60, 2.27p1/60, +3.5cfrel, +7.5xgfrel ---- PP 2:57, 5.85p/60, 3.20p1/60 -- PK 0:56
C Matthews (22, 11.6): 232gms, ES 15:13 (A qoc), 2.60p/60, 2.29p1/60, +0.8cfrel, +2.2xgfrel --- PP 2:22, 6.31p/60, 4.90p1/60 -- PK 0:01

W Marner (22, ????): 261gms, ES 14:19 (A qoc), 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60, -0.5cfrel, -0.0xgfrel ------ PP 2:21, 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60 -- PK 0:30
C Point (23, ????): 250gms, ES 14:59 (A qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.77p1/60, +0.4cfrel, +0.8xgfrel -------- PP 2:39, 5.79p/60, 3.44p1/60 -- PK 0:48
W Pastrnak (21, 6.7): 178gms, ES 13:46 (B+ qoc), 2.20p/60, 1.74p1/60, +3.9cfrel, +4.1xgfrel --- PP 1:45, 5.76p/60, 4.22p1/60 --- PK 0:01

W Rantanen (23, ???): 246gms, ES 15:07 (A+ qoc), 1.98p/60, 1.44p1/60, +1.7cfrel, -1.0xgfrel -- PP 3:29, 5.67p/60, 4.20p1/60 -- PK 0:01
C/W Aho (22, 8.5): 256gms, ES 14:40 (A qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.52p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +1.4xgfrel ------ PP 2:38, 5.07p/60, 3.47p1/60 -- PK 0:32
C/W Drai (22, 8.5): 204gms, ES 14:08 (A qoc), 2.04p/60, 1.50p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +3.2xgfrel ------ PP 2:34, 5.04p/60, 4.00p1/60 -- PK 0:12
C/W Nylander (22, 7.0): 198gms, ES 13:45 (B+ qoc), 2.09p/60, 1.54p1/60, +2.4cfrel, +2.0xgfrel - PP 2:14, 5.71p/60, 4.62p1/60 -- PK 0:01
W Ehlers (22, 6.0): 251gms, ES 13:52 (B+ qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60, +2.1cfrel, +0.2xgfrel ----- PP 2:15, 3.73p/60, 2.77p1/60 --- PK 0:01
W Connor (23, ???): 201gms, ES 14:09 (A qoc), 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60, -2.1cfrel, -2.6xgfrel ----- PP 2:44, 3.71p/60, 2.73p1/60 --- PK 0:20

C Eichel (22, 10.0): 209gms, ES 15:19 (B+ qoc), 1.88p/60, 1.44p1/60, -0.1cfrel, +0.1xgfrel ----- PP 3:10, 5.69p/60, 3.79p1/60 --- PK 0:28
C Larkin (22, 6.1): 246gms, ES 14:18 (B+ qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.43p1/60, +0.9cfrel, -2.1xgfrel ------ PP 1:58, 2.34p/60, 1.72p1/60 --- PK 0:46
W Meier (23, 6.0): 228gms, ES 13:20 (B+ qoc), 1.92p/60, 1.48p1/60, +3.2cfrel, +4.3xgfrel ----- PP 1:21, 3.49p/60, 3.29p1/60 --- PK 0:21
W Laine (21, ????): 260gms, ES 13:40 (B qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.57p1/60, -3.4cfrel, -6.6xgfrel ------ PP 3:03, 5.31p/60, 4.40p1/60 --- PK 0:01
C Schmaltz (23, 5.9): 183gms, ES 13:15 (B qoc), 1.86p/60, 1.41p1/60, -2.5cfrel, -3.0xgfrel ---- PP 2:09, 3.37p/60, 1.99p1/60 --- PK 0:38


1) There are two clear outliers on this list by these numbers, which I would probably just throw out when it comes to comparables:

• Pastrnak seems to be well underpaid, and probably should have a caphit a couple mil higher. There is something to be said, though, about him possibly padding some numbers thanks to being on one of the most dominant lines in hockey. But he was even younger than most of these guys when he signed so this one just looks like a steal to me.
• Eichel seems to be well overpaid. He is probably a couple mil overpaid. It could be argued that the Sabres kinda had to overpay him to make sure he stayed, though. Still, though, this shows the importance of being a true center.

2) Neither of the Leafs already signed are overpaid in the least. Their caphit slots in perfectly with their performance:

• Matthews' performance is simply far, far better than anyone there other than McDavid. It's not even a close call - he's just been at a level his entire ELC that the others have only touched on.
• Nylander performed at a very similar level as Drai and Aho on their ELC's. Drai and Aho, though, have a better case to make that they are legit centers, and as we know, centers get more than wingers, so their 1.5m higher caphit makes sense. Willy is just a bit more impressive than Ehlers there, and has more C potential, so the slightly higher caphit there also makes sense.

3) How do the current RFA slot in here?

• Laine really shouldn't be paid more than $6m, in my opinion, but I'm sure he's asking for much more. He's one of the few 21yr olds here so that's a boost, but even his offensive numbers aren't as good as most of the guys here, and his possession metrics are horrific.
• Connor as well I think the Jets really want to keep under Ehler's number. Their production is identical, but even though connor's qoc is tougher, it's still too huge a gap in possession numbers for my tastes. Also, Connor is a year older, making those numbers a bit less impressive. I'm sure the Jets really, really want to keep these guys under $6m and IMO they're right on both of them.
• Rantanen is a really tough call. First thing to notice is that he's one of the "old" guys on this list, having no teenager years included in those numbers. But, on the other hand, he has played a legit topline role against topline competition consistently, unlike many of the others. BUT, more importantly for me, and probably surprising to some, is that his offensive productivity isn't as good as you'd think it was just looking at his standard numbers. And given that he's strictly a winger, I really wouldn't want to give him as much as Aho and Drai got. Heck I'd have a hard time giving him much more than Willy got.
• Point is really damn good, though again he's one of the "old" guys with no teenage years counted in these numbers. Still, his production is a clear step up here from the bulk of the guys, and he playes legit topline C minutes against top compeition, and holds his own possession wise. 8.5 would have to be the floor here based on comparables I think, but I think 9.5 would probably be deserved.
• Marner is awesome. His production is a clear step above everyone here not named McDavid or Matthews. He's also not one of the old guys, and (kinda) holds his own possession wise against top competition. Also, he's a pure winger, not a center. And, of course, he is a clear and large step down from Matthews productivity wise. Marner has only come close to matthews-level productivity in one of the three years, and that's the one he spent fulltime with Tavares. Looking at where he sits on this list, you can see why Dubas places his value at around $9.5m. And I'm sure, to get a deal done, Dubas would be willing to go to $10m or even a tick over and still feel ok with the deal, based on these comparables.

 

[jaric1862]

10.250x6 would be the best contract I’d offer as the leafs. If he wants A 5 year deal, the absolute max should be 9.5, with expectation that it should be less.

 

[Marshy]

Just stopped in to say...good for you guys for following this odyssey of nonsense on a daily basis despite no real end being evident for several more weeks.

I'm proud of y'all.

Carry on.

It might be nonsense. It might even be circular logic epitomized and a collosol waste of time - but it's ours.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

What cap space did Dubas clear out?

He essentially has the exact same amount of money to pay Marner as he did at the start of the summer (which is a good thing - as they decided how much Marner was worth and have stuck to it):

Traded Kadri, Rosen, Marleau, Zaitsev and Brown (18.1M)
Signed or traded for: Kerfoot, Barrie, Ceci, Harpur, Johnsson and Kapanen (18.1M)

you forgot Spezza

 

[Jack Bauer]

From Marner's perspective but what about from Leafs and Dubas perspective?

Impossible to have a real conversation with you.

You've spent years telling us how we won't be able to afford all of them due to Dubas and other deals we've signed. Especially after Matthews signed.

Now you want term to be dictated by Dubas to suit this discussion? Based on almost 100% of your agenda Dubas' perspective is irrelevant to this as there's 2 sides and 1 is a player and an agent and the other is the side you've already told us can't do much right.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Today, we start slamming Marner's sponsors with messages saying we no longer like this person, and will never buy products affiliated from him. Nowadays, sponsors drop people for nothing. Just a little bit of negative pressure from a couple dozen of us could get Mitch to start losing endorsements.

Sure...let's completely sour the kid on Leaf Nation lol...here you aren't doing what we want let's screw with your endorsements in return...kinda childish...he knows damn well how good hes got it in T.O
He (or his agent/dad) want to get paid, yes he is over valuing himself but it's his ask...it's a negotiation...let's just stay out of it and not be too harsh on the kid (mind you if he Nylanders during the season then he should eat it hard from the fanbase)

 

[Mess]

Impossible to have a real conversation with you.

You've spent years telling us how we won't be able to afford all of them due to Dubas and other deals we've signed. Especially after Matthews signed.

Now you want term to be dictated by Dubas to suit this discussion? Based on almost 100% of your agenda Dubas' perspective is irrelevant to this as there's 2 sides and 1 is a player and an agent and the other is the side you've already told us can't do much right.

How is Dubas the Leafs GM perspective irrelevant to this discussion?

Dubas is the one offering the contract so of course he is driving the cost and the term.

Marner can only sign a players contract that is being offered. Dubas controls the situation ,not Marner and if Dubas has various years/terms he doesn't like he isn't obligated to give the to Marner as options.

 

[ACC1224]

either that or he'll be gone, but I don't like the approach he's taken and that pierces the veil for me, so unless something really changes it just won't be Marner at the top of my totem pole of favourites any more.

on the flip side, the Tavares story is the opposite

Is his approach any different than any other RFA out there?
Seems the same to me it's just getting more attention.

 

[al secord]

Today, we start slamming Marner's sponsors with messages saying we no longer like this person, and will never buy products affiliated from him. Nowadays, sponsors drop people for nothing. Just a little bit of negative pressure from a couple dozen of us could get Mitch to start losing endorsements.

I think you need to step away for the rest of the summer. Mani/Pedi. A drink on the patio. Take some zoomba classes. Paint some clay pottery.

 

[ACC1224]

ohhh so you aren't looking, right so why make the comment then? Its like saying "im not sure the sun is shining today" while only sitting in your windowless office

I get out in the world and speak to people, give it a try.

 

[zeke]

Is his approach any different than any other RFA out there?
Seems the same to me it's just getting more attention.

If anything, Marner has let it be known more strongly than any of the other RFA that he very much prefers to stay with his team.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Is his approach any different than any other RFA out there?
Seems the same to me it's just getting more attention.

similar to a bunch in the same class I guess, but different than the norm until this point. His rumoured ask number is crazy compared to others though

 

[SeaOfBlue]

IMO 2 years at 6.75M (same % range as Panarin on his 2 year deal) and then negotiate an extension for 8 years with a ton of signing bonuses (especially year 1 that provides Mitch some lock out protection) - New TV deal kicks in, salary cap will go up etc, would likely see him get a higher AAV then Matthews by then, probably something around 12-13M which would be a high mark for a winger.

12 x 8 would be fair if the cap goes up enough. Would take him until he's 32, and after that he's not commanding that type of money again. 13.5% or lower long term if the cap reaches 90 mill by then, when he's also buying out his remaining RFA years in between, is fair for Marner barring him breaking his trend and scoring more goals.

Then bridge him for 2 years. Maybe with the impending lockout after next year he'll be motivated to sign July 1, 2020 instead of playing games.

 

[ACC1224]

similar to a bunch in the same class I guess, but different than the norm until this point. His rumoured ask number is crazy compared to others though

He is the best of the bunch.
His "rumoured" vs their "rumoured"

It's all just negotiating.

 

[al secord]

similar to a bunch in the same class I guess, but different than the norm until this point. His rumoured ask number is crazy compared to others though

You're holding his "rumoured ask" against him?

 

[CDN24]

I see your line of thinking here, but I'm assuming that if there is a lockout your basing that strategy above based on players/Marner not getting paid during a lockout year by making it base salary and not bonus money (lockout proof) in year #2.

Exactly, at the end of the day 8-10M does not make much difference to MLSE and is made up or lost in one playoff round ( maybe game) and having Marner there day 1 of camp improves the chances of that. Public perception pride may be another issue, don't want to be percieved as paying him $16M for 1 year on a 2 yr deal. I think the two sides can get around that by making year 2 a higher salary that helps Marner come arbitration time but less bonus dollars in year 2 so Dubas and co can sell it as a win if there is a lockout.

I remember Subbans 2 year bridge contract after the 12-13 lockout when he held out of 6 or 7 games being weighted heavy to the back end (year 2) to set him up better for arbitration. Especially has 1/2 the season was lost to lockout and then his holdout.

If a two year deal is what it takes to get this done they should be able to structure it to afford the leafs some lockout protection while still making it friendly for the player.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

10.5x5 will be the number...

an overpay compared to around the league but fair considering Matthew’s contract.

I love this.

Overpaying Marner is "fair" only because of other leaf player dramatic overpayments.

How anybody could be defending Dubas is beyond me.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

10.5x5 will be the number...

an overpay compared to around the league but fair considering Matthew’s contract.

It's an overpay on both accounts, but if it's forced, then it's forced.

Right now, it has not been forced... So the Leafs are not going to come anywhere near it. He's worth at least 2 mill less than Matthews on the same term, so he has to choose what he wants more.

 

[Havoc]

As long as that actually is the precedent, then I'm fine with it. Which means, as you wrote, that Marner shouldn't be paid as a 94 point player because he only did it once on his elc (just like Pastrnak wasn't paid as a 34 goal/70 point player, because he did it only once).

My problem is, that for a lot of posters here (and maybe Dubas himself), the narrative for how a player is paid keeps changing depending on which leaf player we're discussing.

With 20 goal Nylander vs 34 goal Pastrnak, goals weren't allowed to count in the slightest. It was just points.

Then with Matthews, it was JUST goals. Points didn't matter in the slightest when looking at comparables.

Now with Marner, we're back to goals just not counting again (pretty much every one of his rfa comparable this year scores significantly more goals).

It seems Dubas finds each individual leaf players strength, and uses THAT to figure out how to pay them. Ignoring each leaf players faults and each comparable players strengths is just a silly way to negotiate.

I think what you've proven to be by the end of your elc is how you should be paid. So Pastrnak deserved a lot more than Nylander, and Marner deservers HUGE money for his 94 points.
However, that is NOT the precedent that's been set. So Marner should be in or around the Aho contract.

Pasta put up 34 in his final ELC year. Nylander had one more ELC season left and hit 60 points. If we're restricting to only ELC then no, Pastrnak does not deserve a lot more.

Then consider Pasta went 35 / 45 in 17 / 18. It's already clear he's on trend for having a bargain contract. Nylander has better ELC numbers plus just saw Pasta make himself worth more than 6.7 yet Pasta is stuck at 6.7 and can't do anything about it. Nylander's 6.9 makes a lot of sense if we're going to zoom in to 2018 summer. When he signs for 6.9 Pasta is already worth 7+ but has no freedom to get it. Nylander still has freedom to get a little more than 6.67.

If we want to settle and say fine, Nylander should have got less, it's not an amount worth worrying over.


I agree that the metric for success does change around here. However consider that Leafs didn't hesistate to overpay Matthews. In contrast, they are willing to let Nylander and Marner holdout. That tells us the Leafs don't accept Matthews as a factor and I'm sure majority of the league wouldn't.

Borderline generational talent franchise C's that are 6'3 and 220 pounds yet move like they weigh 140 set precedents for the next borderline generational player/generational player. Not the Marner's of the league. Leafs and any team will overpay always for Matthews types.

It's like saying the Karlsson trade set precedent for future trades involving elite D or Panarin contract set precedent for future 80-90 point wingers...These precedents hold little weight and the Leafs actions prove Matthews falls in this category.

Nylander aside we can agree that Marner's contract should be more reasonable than Matthews. I think we will only differ in our max terms. I'm willing to go as high as 10.5. I don't want a reality where we don't have Marner so I am willing to overpay a little.

edit- 10.5 x 8 that is

 

[Randy Randerson]

He is the best of the bunch.
His "rumoured" vs their "rumoured"

It's all just negotiating.

I don't agree, he's not the player that Matthews is even before you add the premium for being a center

You're holding his "rumoured ask" against him?

I think there's enough smoke around it from enough reputable sources. I did say that I would change my opinion if new information comes to light, like the signing of a contract that's similar to his comps

 

[ACC1224]

I don't agree, he's not the player that Matthews is even before you add the premium for being a center



I think there's enough smoke around it from enough reputable sources. I did say that I would change my opinion if new information comes to light, like the signing of a contract that's similar to his comps

Meant best of the remaining RFA's.

I think his value as a player is slightly below Matthews. His overall value to the organization is pretty close to Matthews.

 

[Mess]

I love this.

Overpaying Marner is "fair" only because of other leaf player dramatic overpayments.

How anybody could be defending Dubas is beyond me.

"2 wrongs don't make a right", but 2 wrongs makes it fair.

Dubas is battling against himself because of past precedence, and his players want to be treated equally and fairly in their eyes among their own teammates when it comes to salary.

Unless Dubas is willing to overpay Marner, because he overpaid Matthews, how does he resolve this?