Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[WTFMAN99]

12 x 8 would be fair if the cap goes up enough. Would take him until he's 32, and after that he's not commanding that type of money again. 13.5% or lower long term if the cap reaches 90 mill by then, when he's also buying out his remaining RFA years in between, is fair for Marner barring him breaking his trend and scoring more goals.

Then bridge him for 2 years. Maybe with the impending lockout after next year he'll be motivated to sign July 1, 2020 instead of playing games.

Yeah, I put up to that 13 range just because you never know if the tv deal boosts it up a lot.

 

[Walshy7]

I get out in the world and speak to people, give it a try.

oh so now you speak to the majority of leaf fans in person? that's a lot of talking

 

[ACC1224]

oh so now you speak to the majority of leaf fans in person? that's a lot of talking

perhaps take a reading lesson while you're getting that fresh air

 

[crump]

Just re-watched Tavares' "all goals" video from last season. Holy bejesus Marner made some awesome dishes on a lot of those 47.
Probably deserves around 9-10 per year on an 8. Might need to do a pricey bridge to keep him. It would be a shame if he sat out a huge year from everyone elses contracts as well.

 

[81Leafs50]

 

[ShaneFalco]

oh so now you speak to the majority of leaf fans in person? that's a lot of talking

Thought police and knows what the public consensus is because he attends games and ya know, talks to people

 

[Randy Randerson]

Meant best of the remaining RFA's.

I think his value as a player is slightly below Matthews. His overall value to the organization is pretty close to Matthews.

I'd be satisfied with him being the top of the heap of 2nd contract wingers by a small margin, Rantanen+$500k let's say, Kucherov is the best comparison right now I think unless you want to go back to Patrick Kane and inflate for the cap so somewhere in the $8.5M-$9.5M for 5-9 years range, and if that was $10-$10.5M by 6-8 years for Marner I would give up my grudge. I do think he's going to be a Kane-like player in his career

I do think that centers tend to get a premium or at least they did until Aho, and a lot will depend on the guys that are left, especially Rantanen if he signs before Marner

 

[ACC1224]

I'd be satisfied with him being the top of the heap of 2nd contract wingers by a small margin, Rantanen+$500k let's say, Kucherov is the best comparison right now I think unless you want to go back to Patrick Kane and inflate for the cap so somewhere in the $8.5M-$9.5M for 5-9 years range, and if that was $10-$10.5M by 6-8 years for Marner I would give up my grudge. I do think he's going to be a Kane-like player in his career

I do think that centers tend to get a premium or at least they did until Aho, and a lot will depend on the guys that are left, especially Rantanen if he signs before Marner

I think this is probably where it heads to. He will slot in somewhere between Eichel and Matthews.

 

[Nineteen67]

I love this.

Overpaying Marner is "fair" only because of other leaf player dramatic overpayments.

How anybody could be defending Dubas is beyond me.

It’s not Dubas, it’s the market.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think this is probably where it heads to. He will slot in somewhere between Eichel and Matthews.

I think I'd put my money on a 2 year $9Mish deal right now, but $10M-10.5M x 6+ is something I can live with.

I think we get a lot of parallels drawn to the Blackhawks of around 2010/11 (post the Kane/Toews ELC's), which worked well for the term of their 2nd contracts but they got to cap hell on the following ones and haven't managed to get out of that pit yet. Kane/Toews 2nd contracts were 10.6% of cap in the first year they took effect, Matthews is already over 14% (though I think he's a rich man's Toews) and Marner is looking for something similar. Chicago's cap hell started when Kane/Toews were making 14.7% of cap each, so I think we need to tread really carefully to make sure we don't hurt our contention window during what should be our best few years

 

[Throw More Waffles]

"2 wrongs don't make a right", but 2 wrongs makes it fair.

Dubas is battling against himself because of past precedence, and his players want to be treated equally and fairly in their eyes among their own teammates when it comes to salary.

Unless Dubas is willing to overpay Marner, because he overpaid Matthews, how does he resolve this?

I know it will never happen, but I genuinely think this should be resolved by Shanahan firing Dubas. Then Dubas' horrible mistakes can't be held as leverage over the new gm.

You're right that Dubas has no choice but to dramatically overpay Marner as well. He already set the precedent with Nylander and Matthews.

But based on the precedent set by Dubas... won't Barry and Muzzin demand FAR above market value as well? Then Rielly the season after? Then everybody else?

How does one change the culture of unprecedented dramatic overpayments if not by getting fired/resigning?

 

[al secord]

I know it will never happen, but I genuinely think this should be resolved by Shanahan firing Dubas. Then Dubas' horrible mistakes can't be held as leverage over the new gm.

You're right that Dubas has no choice but to dramatically overpay Marner as well. He already set the precedent with Nylander and Matthews.

But based on the precedent set by Dubas... won't Barry and Muzzin demand FAR above market value as well? Then Rielly the season after? Then everybody else?

How does one change the culture of unprecedented dramatic overpayments if not by getting fired/resigning?

Lol.

 

[CDN24]

I know it will never happen, but I genuinely think this should be resolved by Shanahan firing Dubas. Then Dubas' horrible mistakes can't be held as leverage over the new gm.

You're right that Dubas has no choice but to dramatically overpay Marner as well. He already set the precedent with Nylander and Matthews.

But based on the precedent set by Dubas... won't Barry and Muzzin demand FAR above market value as well? Then Rielly the season after? Then everybody else?

How does one change the culture of unprecedented dramatic overpayments if not by getting fired/resigning?

I think after Marner he is okay as there are no high end FW coming for a while. Barrie/Muzzin/ and then rielly are different animal as they are D-men with different comparables. Props for the Kappannen and Johnnson deals- he may have got a bit of a bargain on those two. Muzzin and Barrie are UFA next year and everyone overypays UFA d-men if they go to market (can't see how he can afford both) If Morgan Rielly continues at same pace as last year that one will cost a small fortune. 28 year old 20+ G dmen who put up 70+ points get paid like Marner and Matthews as a UFA

 

[Kiwi]

I think I'd put my money on a 2 year $9Mish deal right now, but $10M-10.5M x 6+ is something I can live with.

I think we get a lot of parallels drawn to the Blackhawks of around 2010/11 (post the Kane/Toews ELC's), which worked well for the term of their 2nd contracts but they got to cap hell on the following ones and haven't managed to get out of that pit yet. Kane/Toews 2nd contracts were 10.6% of cap in the first year they took effect, Matthews is already over 14% (though I think he's a rich man's Toews) and Marner is looking for something similar. Chicago's cap hell started when Kane/Toews were making 14.7% of cap each, so I think we need to tread really carefully to make sure we don't hurt our contention window during what should be our best few years

A 2 year 9M bridge? Are you ******* high?

In what world does any player in the league not named McDavid get a 9M bridge? At least take the team out to dinner before you **** them over

 

[Randy Randerson]

A 2 year 9M bridge? Are you ******* high?

In what world does any player in the league not named McDavid get a 9M bridge? At least take the team out to dinner before you **** them over

that's what I've seen for the suggestions for his 2/3 year bridge deal, $8.5-$9M. I agree that it's way too much

 

[IPS]

A 2 year 9M bridge? Are you ******* high?

In what world does any player in the league not named McDavid get a 9M bridge? At least take the team out to dinner before you **** them over

Here I was thinking that was pure insanity, and how he should take something around 5-6M on a 2 year bridge.

Glad to know I'm not alone

 

[Kiwi]

that's what I've seen for the suggestions for his 2/3 year bridge deal, $8.5-$9M. I agree that it's way too much

I've seen people write 13M+ as well, that doesn't mean there not completely insane because there is no comparable for it though

 

[CDN24]

A 2 year 9M bridge? Are you ******* high?

In what world does any player in the league not named McDavid get a 9M bridge? At least take the team out to dinner before you **** them over

If that happens, the next thing we'll be seeing is over $11M over 4 or 5 years to guys coming off ELC deals who are not named McDavid.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I've seen people write 13M+ as well, that doesn't mean there not completely insane because there is no comparable for it though

well, I hope you're right that we can make sense of Marner's next deal by way of his comparables

 

[Kiwi]

If that happens, the next thing we'll be seeing is over $11M over 4 or 5 years to guys coming off ELC deals who are not named McDavid.

We already have, Matthews contract is 11.6M×5 and that deal isn't exactly good either, yay to starting new precedents around the league

Bet you there regretting that right now as Marner quite rightly says where's my drastic overpay as well

well, I hope you're right that we can make sense of Marner's next deal by way of his comparables

So do I but I'm not holding my breath, people are so desensitized to the numbers there throwing around that 9M×2 looks like a bargain

I hope Leafs management isn't buying into this very media driven narrative

 

[Randy Randerson]

So do I but I'm not holding my breath, people are so desensitized to the numbers there throwing around that 9M×2 looks like a bargain

I hope Leafs management isn't buying into this very media driven narrative

you and me both. I hope Marner gets the Kucherov deal and we can all not have to think about this for another 8 years

 

[Kiwi]

you and me both. I hope Marner gets the Kucherov deal and we can all not have to think about this for another 8 years

That's the dream, our guys don't seem to think that way though so I can't see Marner trimming a little bit off the top to make things work

 

[Nooodles]

10.5x5 will be the number...

an overpay compared to around the league but fair considering Matthew’s contract.

Basically every number is an option between 2-8 but 5.
No chance he gets a 1 or a 5 year contract. He would be a fool to take a one year deal and we would be absolutely crazy to offer a 5 year deal and make Marner, Matthews and Nylander a UFA at the same time.

2, 3, 4, 6, 7 or 8 will be the number.

 

[Randy Randerson]

That's the dream, our guys don't seem to think that way though so I can't see Marner trimming a little bit off the top to make things work

we haven't been lucky in the mindsets of our core prospects, they have all pushed for the max in their ranges or more than their ranges.

on the flip side, we got good deals on Johnsson and Kapanen. It would be nice if we had a long term steal like Kadri/Rielly to add to that mix

 

[Randy Randerson]

Basically every number is an option between 2-8 but 5.
No chance he gets a 1 or a 5 year contract. He would be a fool to take a one year deal and we would be absolutely crazy to offer a 5 year deal and make Marner, Matthews and Nylander a UFA at the same time.

2, 3, 4, 6, 7 or 8 will be the number.

I think 4 is more off-the-table than 5, Dubas wants the next negotiation to be with RFA years left or having already bought some UFA years. 2-3 or 6-8 imo