Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Bigmarycombo]

Businesses are run with budgets, and most businesses don't see things in such simplistic black and white terms. There is zero chance Dubas is fired this season, much less for the details of a Marner negotiation that Shanahan would be fully aware of. There is 0% chance that Dubas leaves before Babcock.


Dubas had countless jobs. He has to balance a ton of different things.

He signed 2 of his 3 star RFAs to reasonable contracts so far (while signing his lesser ones to bargains), and set himself up perfectly for the other one. Marner will not be "lost", even in a worst case scenario.
He has vastly improved the defence from when he took over, even doing it while maneuvering a difficult cap situation. We have balanced LHD-RHD for the first time in I don't know how long. We have two top-pairing defensemen since I think Kaberle-McCabe. We have considerable depth.
Gardiner was a mess last year. Kadri was good, but did not fit in his role, and we got a slight downgrade to get a younger, cheaper player with room to improve.
We have the money to re-sign Barrie or Muzzin next year, Dermott should be cheap, and our two best prospects are defensemen and should be more than ready by then. Everybody complained about our expiring defense this year, and we're entering the season way better than we ended the last one.


He did not slow walk anything. He took the proper patience to plan and get a deal that worked for all sides; the correct move.


Then you weren't paying attention. This is far from "worst case scenario".


A 4-year deal takes him straight to UFA. That would be beyond stupid.


Barrie makes 2.75m this year, which is incredible value. He is a major piece to upgrade the team this year, and he will likely be re-signed. Leafs also got a slightly worse player than Kadri, but one that is younger with room to improve, who is also cheaper and signed for longer.


Good lord.

There is no justification for calling Kerfoot a "replacement level player".

Well you point out that a four year deal takes marner to free agency and that is beyond stupid

But we signed our generational franchise player to a five year deal that takes him right to free agency but we gave him a no movement clause on the last year so basically we gave this player who is well above mariners skill level in everybody’s opinion a four year beyond stupid contract

 

[TheProspector]

Then sign him to a 4 year deal and take your chances. If he isn't top 4 in the league, you let him walk. There are only 3 players locked up for that 5th year. The leafs gave up Kadri to essentially sign Barrie for 1 year and get a replacement level player like Kerfoot. You can't really say Marner is worth big money and then say he is too good to only sign for 4 years

Why do you say that Kerfoot is a replacement level player? I don't see any evidence that Kerfoot is not a significantly better than replacement player. Evolving Hockey has him at 7.3 GAR/1.3 WAR. Corsica has him at a 1.69 ES GS/60.

 

[Marshy]

Why do you say that Kerfoot is a replacement level player? I don't see any evidence that Kerfoot is not a significantly better than replacement player. Evolving Hockey has him at 7.3 GAR/1.3 WAR. Corsica has him at a 1.69 ES GS/60.

I want to see him play with some better wingers that we can provide him before I pass judgement. I'm cautiously optimistic he'll improve his offensive production if he gets time on a decent PP2. I am also encouraged that he is above average defensively based on my readings about him despite what some Avalanche fans are espousing.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Based on an 8 year term he would have been somewhere in the ballpark of 11M (less than McDavid, more than Eichel) so 11.6M doesn't seem crazy, especially when you consider he's scored goals at a higher rate than anyone in the entire NHL over his 3 years in the league.
It's only an overpayment because we only got 5 years for that price.

You have to consider the conditions under which they all signed though.

Eichel and McDavid both signed in the 2017 offseason, before the biggest cap increase in years, and before Seattle was announced. McDavid (who didn't use an ounce of his potential leverage) very publicly took a 750k discount after the contract was agreed upon, so his comparable contract value is higher. Matthews signed under the assumption of an 83m cap, after the projection was announced, which only didn't happen because the NHLPA chose (in late June) to use the lowest escalator % ever (0.5%).

Signed under Matthews' conditions, using an educated estimate of what Edmonton/Buffalo would have thought the 2018-2019 cap would have been based on the previous few years, we are likely looking at an equivalent contract value of 10.8m X 8 for Eichel, and 14.3m X 8 for McDavid.

11.6 X 5 is about right based on where he fits in that scale, especially considering that he was on a 50 goal, 100 point pace playing with rookie Johnsson, rookie Kapanen, and Ennis, and he has some of the best rate of production stats in the entire NHL; 2nd only to McDavid among his peers, and the biggest separation in point pace with his closest linemate in the entire NHL (40).

 

[Dekes For Days]

But we signed our generational franchise player to a five year deal that takes him right to free agency

A 5 year deal does not take Matthews straight to free agency. Matthews had 4 RFA years left, just like Marner.

 

[4thline]

9.1693 x 3, backloaded to set him up with a 12.1693 QO which sets him up with the keys to a de facto 9.92 4 year deal taking him to UFA.

Offered along with the knowledge that he won't have a chance to accept that QO as a Leaf, if no extension can be reached he'll be traded at the draft.

 

[Notsince67]

If the Leafs are going to make Marner one of the highest paid wingers in the game, then you have to expect 100 points and a strong playoff contributions.

You really think he will hit Panarin or Kane Cap% numbers? I doubt it

 

[Notsince67]

Why do you say that Kerfoot is a replacement level player? I don't see any evidence that Kerfoot is not a significantly better than replacement player. Evolving Hockey has him at 7.3 GAR/1.3 WAR. Corsica has him at a 1.69 ES GS/60.

I only have 2 classifications. Core and replacement level as there should be.

 

[Marshy]

I only have 2 classifications. Core and replacement level as there should be.

And below replacement level.

See Holl/Marnicin/et al

 

[Notsince67]

And below replacement level.

See Holl/Marnicin/et al

Yeah....the scrub list

 

[4thline]

I only have 2 classifications. Core and replacement level as there should be.

Ridiculous

 

[Mess]

You really think he will hit Panarin or Kane Cap% numbers? I doubt it

Those are UFA numbers and free market prices, Marner has 4 more years of RFA years ahead first before we starting talking UFA purchasing years by Leafs management in 5 years and beyond.

Leafs are paying UFA prices for RFA years, and that is where the problem is. That is what happened with Matthews and now are facing similar situation with Marner.

 

[Notsince67]

Ridiculous

He is a third line player at best on the team. I don't even think it is a given that he even plays the third

 

[Notsince67]

Those are UFA numbers and free market prices, Marner has 4 more years of RFA years ahead first before we starting talking UFA purchasing years by Leafs management in 5 years and beyond.

Leafs are paying UFA prices for RFA years, and that is where the problem is. That is what happened with Matthews and now are facing similar situation with Marner.

You said highest paid and I pointed to a few of the highest paid wingers from a cap perspective. Didn't even touch on Ovie

 

[4thline]

He is a third line player at best on the team. I don't even think it is a given that he even plays the third

That's not what is ridiculous.

What's ridiculous is
A. A classification of stars/core - > everyone else completely ignoring the middle of the lineup
B. Using replacement level in conversation as a completely different purpose than it's known and accepted definition

 

[Mess]

You said highest paid and I pointed to a few of the highest paid wingers from a cap perspective. Didn't even touch on Ovie

If Marner gets $10.5 mil AAV it ties him with Kane and only behind Panarin a recent 2019 UFA signing as the highest paid winger in the game.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The biggest piece of evidence was that Ferris called out a lowball last summer that was not challenged by anyone. Not once did Dubas relay that Marner was unwilling to negotiate.

Dubas is not negotiating publicly, like Marner's stupid agent. He is negotiating privately, because that is what professional people do.

Dubas not talking or responding to nonsense in the media is not evidence of anything.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Those are UFA numbers and free market prices, Marner has 4 more years of RFA years ahead first before we starting talking UFA purchasing years by Leafs management in 5 years and beyond.

Leafs are paying UFA prices for RFA years, and that is where the problem is. That is what happened with Matthews and now are facing similar situation with Marner.

Key difference is that it makes a lot more sense to do it with Matthews than with Marner, especially when that is where Matthews' comparables match up.

Marner just wants to break the market and compare himself with guys he has no business comparing himself with.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I agree but you realize that the valuation of UFA years were done at max 20% of a higher cap. That would have put an 8 year equivalent contract around 13.5MM.

Matthews' UFA years are not worth max contract each year.

There is no basis to suggest that his contract is equivalent to 13.5m x 8.

 

[Dekes For Days]

People need to settle the **** down and see how this plays out.

This would be great advice for yourself.

 

[Notsince67]

That's not what is ridiculous.

What's ridiculous is
A. A classification of stars/core - > everyone else completely ignoring the middle of the lineup
B. Using replacement level in conversation as a completely different purpose than it's known and accepted definition

Replacement means easily replacable. I wouldn't have classified Kadri or Gardiner as elite but would not have called them replacement level. You can easily find a Kerfoot anywhere in the league that is available for trade. He isn't free but he isn't rare. You have a harder time for a core piece.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I only have 2 classifications. Core and replacement level.

Lol, what? That makes zero sense at all.

By that definition, Kadri was replacement level too.

 

[Notsince67]

If Marner gets $10.5 mil AAV it ties him with Kane and only behind Panarin a recent 2019 UFA signing as the highest paid winger in the game.

Patrick Kane was signed for 15.22% of the cap or 12.4MM in todays dollars.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He is a third line player at best on the team. I don't even think it is a given that he even plays the third

There is zero chance that Kerfoot is on the 4th line or below.

Are you thinking of a different player?

 

[4thline]

Replacement means easily replacable. I wouldn't have classified Kadri or Gardiner as elite but would not have called them replacement level. You can easily find a Kerfoot anywhere in the league that is available for trade. He isn't free but he isn't rare. You have a harder time for a core piece.

Here's the thing though.. that's not what replacement level means. Think waiver wire, AHL call up, AAAA, tweener. Close to league minimum player that is completely interchangeable with a myriad of others available at no cost and providing little to no positive impact.

That is not a young 40 point top 9 forward.