Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[hector morrison]

If they agree to 3 years, this contract conversation does not stop until that one expires.

Likely true! I don't see the advantage of a 3 year deal anyway. It seems risky for both sides. An unhappy agreement.

 

[Sypher04]

Dubas had 2 jobs. Sign the young studs at a reasonable contract and improve the defense. We have lost Gardiner and Kadri, have only 1 dman signed next year, have overpaid Matthews and Nylander because somehow Dubas learned from Lou to take your time in negotiations and will now lose Marner. That is not on Babs.

1. We won't lose Marner
2. Dubas has improved the defense. We lost a couple guys, but getting Barrie is a big win as it provides balance at the top end. The bottom end of the defense can be filled.
3. Nylander's contract is completely fine as long as he bounces back to even 60+ point forward production which I have little doubt he will
4. Matthews is kinda overpaid, but only based on term. I still suspect that deal will be okay in the long run but point granted here.

I don't love the slow play negotiations either but Dubas by and large has done a good job here.
Obviously remains to be seen how it all comes together on the ice.

 

[Notsince67]

Nobody's asking him to leave $20M (over 8 years) on the table, nor should they. All he needs to do is sign for FMV and stop trying to pretend he's worth Top 5 money in the league. He's not and it's a farce.

Then sign him to a 4 year deal and take your chances. If he isn't top 4 in the league, you let him walk. There are only 3 players locked up for that 5th year. The leafs gave up Kadri to essentially sign Barrie for 1 year and get a replacement level player like Kerfoot. You can't really say Marner is worth big money and then say he is too good to only sign for 4 years

 

[Notsince67]

you rarely make sense.

Ok dude. Explain how it makes sense that missing training camp reduces his pay when training camp isn't paid
Waiting

 

[Marshy]

Then sign him to a 4 year deal and take your chances. If he isn't top 4 in the league, you let him walk. There are only 3 players locked up for that 5th year. The leafs gave up Kadri to essentially sign Barrie for 1 year and get a replacement level player like Kerfoot. You can't really say Marner is worth big money and then say he is too good to only sign for 4 years

I think he'll be signed to a 3 year bridge between 8 and 9M AAV.

 

[Notsince67]

it is so incredibly funny that you can say "well, Kucherov MIGHT not score 40 goals or 100+ pts", but what if Marner scored 7 less goals than last season and 14 pts less also? (Marner 2018-2019 26goals and 94pts)

then what is he worth?

19goals and 80pts should net Marner what?

Kucherov got paid and then set career highs. Applaud then man for his talent. NOT, its not sustainable. LMAO

some people are a complete joke.

Explain how you think his shooting percentage stats look to be sustainable

 

[Notsince67]

I doubt that! I wouldn't fire my GM because of some spoiled brat holding the team hostage. The numbers /money available are no secret....Mitch is looking bad here...not Dubas.

As far as Babs job security,well ,he already has 2 new assistants,that I am not sure he had any say in. Either that or maybe he blamed the former assistants for the teams shortcomings,so they found him new ones.Since he hasn't shouldered any blame himself ,I would say he is on a short leash this year!

So you believe the current state of the leafs right now are what you expected last summer. This is the best you hoped for?

 

[Notsince67]

1. We won't lose Marner
2. Dubas has improved the defense. We lost a couple guys, but getting Barrie is a big win as it provides balance at the top end. The bottom end of the defense can be filled.
3. Nylander's contract is completely fine as long as he bounces back to even 60+ point forward production which I have little doubt he will
4. Matthews is kinda overpaid, but only based on term. I still suspect that deal will be okay in the long run but point granted here.

I don't love the slow play negotiations either but Dubas by and large has done a good job here.
Obviously remains to be seen how it all comes together on the ice.

On point 4.
I only disagree with the qualifier "but only". This is pretty big IMO.

 

[Sypher04]

I feel like a lot of our improvement next season should be expected in the form of:

- functional special teams
- players being played appropriately, be it positionally, role or TOI
- growth of young players like Kapanen/Johnsson/Dermott
- full, proper and highly motivated year from Nylander
- a more balanced top 4 defense
- be gone stretch pass... please?

 

[Sypher04]

On point 4.
I only disagree with the qualifier "but only". This is pretty big IMO.

Based on an 8 year term he would have been somewhere in the ballpark of 11M (less than McDavid, more than Eichel) so 11.6M doesn't seem crazy, especially when you consider he's scored goals at a higher rate than anyone in the entire NHL over his 3 years in the league.
It's only an overpayment because we only got 5 years for that price.

 

[Notsince67]

I think he'll be signed to a 3 year bridge between 8 and 9M AAV.

Maybe but what frustrates me is that these are insane numbers relative to what they could have signed him for last summer

 

[Sypher04]

Maybe but what frustrates me is that these are insane numbers relative to what they could have signed him for last summer

Maybe Marner could have been signed last summer... maybe he couldn't have.
We were told by a lot of good insiders that Marner specifically wanted to go last out of the 3 young guns, so who honestly knows how realistically he would have signed
After we signed Tavares July 1 the smart play for Marner was always to wait out this season

Obviously it'd have been nice to have all of Nylander, Matthews and Marner signed before we signed Tavares. No question that certainly would have been nice, but that would have been a lot to get done inside like 50 days of being named GM.

 

[hector morrison]

So you believe the current state of the leafs right now are what you expected last summer. This is the best you hoped for?

That's not an accurate assumption ! My interest ,has been mostly focused on Dubas and the unexpected moves . I think he has done better than anyone could have hoped in steering the teams personnel/ payroll,so far.

My expectations were for the Leafs to be worse(but not by a lot)this coming season. There were so many issues on the table for Dubas to deal with. Opinions obviously vary on how he went about achieving what he has ,but I applaud it. Not knowing what has really transpired in the Marner negotiation has understandably left a lot of fans feeling uneasy...as if,everything Dubas has done so far is meaningless ,if he doesn't get Marner on board. That said,the money available to sign Marner (at this point in time) seems to be generally agreed on by the fan base as being enough. The term,I guess is maybe the sticking point? I cannot know. I think Dubas gets it done though!

 

[Notsince67]

Based on an 8 year term he would have been somewhere in the ballpark of 11M (less than McDavid, more than Eichel) so 11.6M doesn't seem crazy, especially when you consider he's scored goals at a higher rate than anyone in the entire NHL over his 3 years in the league.
It's only an overpayment because we only got 5 years for that price.

I agree but you realize that the valuation of UFA years were done at max 20% of a higher cap. That would have put an 8 year equivalent contract around 13.5MM. Quite an eye opener considering some people here are advocating for a 9ish x 8 contract for Marner

 

[Notsince67]

Maybe Marner could have been signed last summer... maybe he couldn't have.
We were told by a lot of good insiders that Marner specifically wanted to go last out of the 3 young guns, so who honestly knows how realistically he would have signed
After we signed Tavares July 1 the smart play for Marner was always to wait out this season

Obviously it'd have been nice to have all of Nylander, Matthews and Marner signed before we signed Tavares. No question that certainly would have been nice, but that would have been a lot to get done inside like 50 days of being named GM.

The biggest piece of evidence was that Ferris called out a lowball last summer that was not challenged by anyone. Not once did Dubas relay that Marner was unwilling to negotiate.

 

[Notsince67]

That's not an accurate assumption ! My interest ,has been mostly focused on Dubas and the unexpected moves . I think he has done better than anyone could have hoped in steering the teams personnel/ payroll,so far.

My expectations were for the Leafs to be worse(but not by a lot)this coming season. There were so many issues on the table for Dubas to deal with. Opinions obviously vary on how he went about achieving what he has ,but I applaud it. Not knowing what has really transpired in the Marner negotiation has understandably left a lot of fans feeling uneasy...as if,everything Dubas has done so far is meaningless ,if he doesn't get Marner on board. That said,the money available to sign Marner (at this point in time) seems to be generally agreed on by the fan base as being enough. The term,I guess is maybe the sticking point? I cannot know. I think Dubas gets it done though!

No one has perfect knowledge of what happened. The rumors flying about what Marner has and has not asked for has been a bit much. The latest twitter post of other agents saying that only a 1 year 14MM contract and a resigning in January is the most absurd piece of crap I have heard yet. Why would marner sign a contract in January when he only needs to wait until Jul1 for an equal qualifying offer not to show and become a UFA?
The fact that people are buying into this is laughable.
People need to settle the f*** down and see how this plays out.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Even Shanny has someone to answer to. This is a business and this is what happens when things arent done

Businesses are run with budgets, and most businesses don't see things in such simplistic black and white terms. There is zero chance Dubas is fired this season, much less for the details of a Marner negotiation that Shanahan would be fully aware of. There is 0% chance that Dubas leaves before Babcock.

Dubas had 2 jobs. Sign the young studs at a reasonable contract and improve the defense. We have lost Gardiner and Kadri, have only 1 dman signed next year, have overpaid Matthews and Nylander because somehow Dubas learned from Lou to take your time in negotiations and will now lose Marner. That is not on Babs.

Dubas had countless jobs. He has to balance a ton of different things.

He signed 2 of his 3 star RFAs to reasonable contracts so far (while signing his lesser ones to bargains), and set himself up perfectly for the other one. Marner will not be "lost", even in a worst case scenario.
He has vastly improved the defence from when he took over, even doing it while maneuvering a difficult cap situation. We have balanced LHD-RHD for the first time in I don't know how long. We have two top-pairing defensemen since I think Kaberle-McCabe. We have considerable depth.
Gardiner was a mess last year. Kadri was good, but did not fit in his role, and we got a slight downgrade to get a younger, cheaper player with room to improve.
We have the money to re-sign Barrie or Muzzin next year, Dermott should be cheap, and our two best prospects are defensemen and should be more than ready by then. Everybody complained about our expiring defense this year, and we're entering the season way better than we ended the last one.

The problem is that he decided to slow walk the negotiations

He did not slow walk anything. He took the proper patience to plan and get a deal that worked for all sides; the correct move.

Last summer, i would never have even considered the worse case being as bad as now.

Then you weren't paying attention. This is far from "worst case scenario".

Then sign him to a 4 year deal and take your chances.

A 4-year deal takes him straight to UFA. That would be beyond stupid.

The leafs gave up Kadri to essentially sign Barrie for 1 year

Barrie makes 2.75m this year, which is incredible value. He is a major piece to upgrade the team this year, and he will likely be re-signed. Leafs also got a slightly worse player than Kadri, but one that is younger with room to improve, who is also cheaper and signed for longer.

and get a replacement level player like Kerfoot.

Good lord.

There is no justification for calling Kerfoot a "replacement level player".

 

[Sypher04]

No one has perfect knowledge of what happened. The rumors flying about what Marner has and has not asked for has been a bit much. The latest twitter post of other agents saying that only a 1 year 14MM contract and a resigning in January is the most absurd piece of crap I have heard yet. Why would marner sign a contract in January when he only needs to wait until Jul1 for an equal qualifying offer not to show and become a UFA?
The fact that people are buying into this is laughable.
People need to settle the **** down and see how this plays out.

the media has been milking this situation for everything they possibly can.
we can't take 99% of the stuff we read, hear, watch at face value. It's so bad.

 

[Marshy]

Maybe but what frustrates me is that these are insane numbers relative to what they could have signed him for last summer

You have very strong opinions on matters where you have only pieces of the puzzle and are not privy to all the information. Great for internet debating though. You drive discussion I'll give you that.

 

[81Leafs50]

Explain how you think his shooting percentage stats look to be sustainable

explain to me why it isn't when he has already proved its possible? I'll wait.

 

[81Leafs50]

Explain how you think his shooting percentage stats look to be sustainable

You are putting it on me to prove that its possible, when the player has clearly proved that it is. HIS stats from last season as FACT. It happened and you cannot deny it that it did.

SO instead of arguing FACT with your opinion is "BLAH BLAH" based on historical evidence blah blah blah .... just say that while his stats are impressive and definitely repeatable it might be unlikely because of roster turnover/changes, maybe Point is not there next season or something like that.

But instead you again try to say your opinion as fact. "No way he repeats those numbers" is not fact. its probable. its an opinion.

 

[hector morrison]

No one has perfect knowledge of what happened. The rumors flying about what Marner has and has not asked for has been a bit much. The latest twitter post of other agents saying that only a 1 year 14MM contract and a resigning in January is the most absurd piece of crap I have heard yet. Why would marner sign a contract in January when he only needs to wait until Jul1 for an equal qualifying offer not to show and become a UFA?
The fact that people are buying into this is laughable.
People need to settle the **** down and see how this plays out.

Seriously? 14M ? Wow! I mean,it's easy to project great things for such a wonderful player ( I hope he has a fantastic career as a Leaf) but there are precedents,benchmarks and most importantly the fact that it is a team sport!

I don't want to believe that Mitch is dumb/greedy enough to handcuff the Leafs to the point of not being able to field competent complimentary players. But if the available cash isn't enough then what options does that leave Dubas? I have seen the recent rumored issue being the term of the contract ,so this makes me think Dubas can get it done. I feel that both sides are very aware that the Nylander option can't happen,as it helps no one!

Also,just curious as to how many potential endorsements are holding back,waiting to see if Mitch remains a Leaf.

 

[Mess]

I understood it. For the record I think Kucherov is great. I just know a lot of people will be talking about his decline next year but it really isn't a decline. He had some incredible luck IMO but I really don't expect sustained output like that from anyone not named McDavid. To @Mess point, he is easily worth his contract at 100 points. It's a bargain and the lens should then be that Marner doesn't need 128 points to be paid near that or above.

If the Leafs are going to make Marner one of the highest paid wingers in the game, then you have to expect 100 points and a strong playoff contributions.

 

[Marshy]

If the Leafs are going to make Marner one of the highest paid wingers in the game, then you have to expect 100 points and a strong playoff contributions.

Factoring in Marner's age, talent and the high octane offence he is about to enter his prime as a key member of - it's safe to assume Marner will put up top winger point production and justify a contract commensurate with same. Top winger contract being the key phrase. He doesn't deserve and should not be paid top franchise C dollars.

 

[Nineteen67]

Who knows how legit this is, but if he's serious with his 11x3 demand, his ass needs to be traded pronto.

3 yrs plus the qualifying offer for year 4 makes him a UFA....I doubt that’s what they agreed to.