Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Confucius]

You want to come to a resolution where everyone is happy.
Sitting for 2 years isn't an outcome either side will want.

It will be all up to Mitch and he wont choose sitting. That's all we got to offer, so sorry.

 

[ACC1224]

It will be all up to Mitch and he wont choose sitting. That's all we got to offer, so sorry.

Looks like you missed the point.

 

[Craig Button]

Quite the range you've got there.

Lol. My bad
100-110

 

[Confucius]

Looks like you missed the point.

Once he starts getting his cheques, He'll be plenty happy with his 9.5 x 8. Lol

 

[Notsince67]

Lol. My bad
100-110

I understood it. For the record I think Kucherov is great. I just know a lot of people will be talking about his decline next year but it really isn't a decline. He had some incredible luck IMO but I really don't expect sustained output like that from anyone not named McDavid. To @Mess point, he is easily worth his contract at 100 points. It's a bargain and the lens should then be that Marner doesn't need 128 points to be paid near that or above.

 

[Craig Button]

I understood it. For the record I think Kucherov is great. I just know a lot of people will be talking about his decline next year but it really isn't a decline. He had some incredible luck IMO but I really don't expect sustained output like that from anyone not named McDavid. To @Mess point, he is easily worth his contract at 100 points. It's a bargain and the lens should then be that Marner doesn't need 128 points to be paid near that or above.

I agree and for the record I think Marner can obtain 110+ Points easily if he played with both Matthews and Tavares.
Matthews can get 50+ goals if healthy and Tavares can get ~40. Marner~30.
No reason not to think he can put up those numbers

 

[Kurtz]

Not interested in an appeal to authority argument. Go for it if you want. Hardly scientific either way

Are you dismissive of all opinion polls, or just this one in particular? Why do you think me potentially citing a hockey poll on this site to measure opinion constitutes an appeal to authority fallacy? Did you mean the bandwagon fallacy?

I know that aging curves suggest that a player's absolute prime is 21-25, but Kuch has already taken the leap and has sustained it for 3 years, whereas Mitch has only shown it for 1, which could very well represent an outlier season.

 

[lottster14]

Do you want to play in Toronto or not Mitch? Sign for the leafs and quit going to the ends of this earth for an extra few pennies. Ridiculous. "i'm 22 and pretty much guaranteed 8 million a year, but if i could possibly make 10, why not try?" Sad state of things nowadays. All greed and you can argue that all you want.. but it's all about money always period.

 

[Heisen]

Hope, no matter what, he is puck-touch boo’d all season long.

 

[Notsince67]

Once he starts getting his cheques, He'll be plenty happy with his 9.5 x 8. Lol

There are some real reason why Marner does not want to sign long term and I completely get it. All things in, The Canadian teams represent 24% of league revenues based on what they are reporting. The TV deals are distributed in a way I really dont understand but the US rights only yield $200MM annually while the Canadian TV deal around 436MM annually. When Seattle comes on board, will be US will have 78% of all of the games. A new US TV contract will be huge
Add the Seattle revenue.

Now look at significant non TV Canadian revenue and consider what happens when the Canadian dollar normalizes.

The Cap is likely going to move up significantly in a period far less than 8 years. A player who in unlikely to decline will look at this if he has a decent agent and balk at a long term deal now

 

[Ratboy]

I don't believe Marner even wants an offer sheet.. not worried about him going anywhere else but I don't want another nylander debacle.

 

[mikeyz]

It will be all up to Mitch and he wont choose sitting. That's all we got to offer, so sorry.

We said the same thing about Nylander.

 

[Suntouchable13]

He wants to hold the Leafs hostage and still expect the fans to like him?

 

[Notsince67]

Are you dismissive of all opinion polls, or just this one in particular? Why do you think me potentially citing a hockey poll on this site to measure opinion constitutes an appeal to authority fallacy? Did you mean the bandwagon fallacy?

I know that aging curves suggest that a player's absolute prime is 21-25, but Kuch has already taken the leap and has sustained it for 3 years, whereas Mitch has only shown it for 1, which could very well represent an outlier season.

True but the leap off point is significantly different. There are risks for sure but I will trust the underlying trend up until Marner gets significantly hurt. The game Marner is playing is far from a run and gun offense. He actually plays responsibly defensively. That points to a pretty sustained high performance level.

 

[DopeyFish]

With the NJ Gusev deal, that basically seals Marner's offersheet risk.

It's Ottawa or Toronto unless there's some salary movement. But considering NJ has Zacha and Butcher with $12.5 left, Philly has Provorov with $13.4, Columbus has Werenski with $15.7, Colorado has Rantanen with $16.4 and Winnipeg has Laine with $17.6

There is gonna be no room left.

 

[stickty111]

This is some kind of absurd logic even for you, Mess.

To validate his contract, Marner needs to play at the level that warranted such a contract. That's all.

Thats his way of criticizing Marner again when he doesn't live up to his unrealistic demands.
If Marner plays the way he did this season, he lives up to the contract. He doesn't need to get 150 points to make it a good contract.

 

[Confucius]

This is some kind of absurd logic even for you, Mess.

To validate his contract, Marner needs to play at the level that warranted such a contract. That's all.

Not in the last decade anyway. I've read Marner was willing to sign for 9 million per last summer. Do you think he was basing that on being a 20 goal 40 assist player? Desrving of 9 million per year for that performance?. Funny now that he has actually done what he forecast, he thinks he is worth even more.

 

[MyBudJT]

Not in the last decade anyway. I've read Marner was willing to sign for 9 million per last summer. Do you think he was basing that on being a 20 goal 40 assist player? Desrving of 9 million per year for that performance?. Funny now that he has actually done what he forecast, he thinks he is worth even more.

Why are you pretending Marner got 60 points in his sophomore season?

 

[Confucius]

Why are you pretending Marner got 60 points in his sophomore season?

Thought it was, alright is a 22 goal, 69 point player worth 9 million a year?

 

[IPS]

Who knows how legit this is, but if he's serious with his 11x3 demand, his ass needs to be traded pronto.

 

[Kiwi]

Who knows how legit this is, but if he's serious with his 11x3 demand, his ass needs to be traded pronto.

Who's trading for that contract headache?

I don't know about the 11M×3 thing (thats sounds completely insane and I can't see how it's correct) but Marner is an RFA that we are struggling to sign, I just don't see why anybody would trade assets for that particular noose

One thing about it, if 11M×3 is true Marner isn't playing anytime soon
For anybody because nobody is giving him that

 

[hector morrison]

Not in the last decade anyway. I've read Marner was willing to sign for 9 million per last summer. Do you think he was basing that on being a 20 goal 40 assist player? Desrving of 9 million per year for that performance?. Funny now that he has actually done what he forecast, he thinks he is worth even more.

This is a valid point...only has rumor status ,but if true,then it's a good question. Your numbers are low for Mitch,but not by much.

Maybe it was the term he didn't want? Like what is rumored now.

 

[hector morrison]

Who's trading for that contract headache?

I don't know about the 11M×3 thing (thats sounds completely insane and I can't see how it's correct) but Marner is an RFA that we are struggling to sign, I just don't see why anybody would trade assets for that particular noose

One thing about it, if 11M×3 is true Marner isn't playing anytime soon
For anybody because nobody is giving him that

I agree,but there are desperate teams/managers out there. I could see some teams trying their offer for trade...half the league sucks and are looking for ways to either' speed up a rebuild' or 'turn it around'.
I would be entertained to see some offers!

 

[BertCorbeau]

Who knows how legit this is, but if he's serious with his 11x3 demand, his ass needs to be traded pronto.

Tough to say.

You'd have to think that another team would consider OS'ing him if the Leafs were that dug at in at 5 years, for that reason. Doesn't necessarily add up. At that term I wouldn't be surprised if they're asking for $11+ mill AAV ...

 

[nuck]

Took a week of from the Marner show and it was so nice. He is not getting an offer sheet. He will sit out into the season and miss games. This doesn't end without some blood. Can you guys imagine if the Caps had to sign Backstrom right after the 101pt year?