Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Mess]

Marner SHOULD NOT get more than Kucherov.

Kucherov put up 128 points as a winger, won the Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsey as he was voted league MVP and he is locked in for 8 years at $9.5 mil.

I'm OK with Marner if he gets more on an 8 year deal as long as he puts up more points and brings home the hardware as the leagues best player, because then he earned it and deserves it.

If 128 points is worth $9.5 mil = $74,219 per cap hit point then;
$10.0 mil = 135 points
$10.5 mil = 141 points
$11.0 mil = 148 points

So if Mitch can put up about 45-50 more points than he did last year's 94 he will have proven he is worth that $10.5 mil deal on 8 years.

 

[Bomber0104]

Kucherov put up 128 points as a winger, won the Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsey as he was voted league MVP and he is locked in for 8 years at $9.5 mil.

I'm OK with Marner if he gets more on an 8 year deal as long as he puts up more points and brings home the hardware as the leagues best player, because then he earned it and deserves it.

If 128 points is worth $9.5 mil = $74,219 per cap hit point then;
$10.0 mil = 135 points
$10.5 mil = 141 points
$11.0 mil = 148 points

So if Mitch can put up about 45-50 more points than he did last year's 94 he will have proven he is worth that $10.5 mil deal on 8 years.

Probably worth noting that Kucherov signed his deal with the Lightning before he put up his monster 128 point season.

At the time Kucherov signed his contract, he just turned in a 39 goal/100 point campaign. Also elite and still more productive than Marner's 26 goal/94 point season.

Advantage goes to Kucherov for goals.
Advantage goes to Marner for being 4 years younger.

 

[ACC1224]

Kucherov put up 128 points as a winger, won the Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsey as he was voted league MVP and he is locked in for 8 years at $9.5 mil.

I'm OK with Marner if he gets more on an 8 year deal as long as he puts up more points and brings home the hardware as the leagues best player, because then he earned it and deserves it.

If 128 points is worth $9.5 mil = $74,219 per cap hit point then;
$10.0 mil = 135 points
$10.5 mil = 141 points
$11.0 mil = 148 points

So if Mitch can put up about 45-50 more points than he did last year's 94 he will have proven he is worth that $10.5 mil deal on 8 years.

Didn't he win all those awards etc after he had signed his contract?

 

[Mess]

Probably worth noting that Kucherov signed his deal with the Lightning before he put up his monster 128 point season.

At the time Kucherov signed his contract, he just turned in a 39 goal/100 point campaign. Also elite and still more productive than Marner's 26 goal/94 point season.

Advantage goes to Kucherov for goals.
Advantage goes to Marner for being 4 years younger.

So what you're saying is you want to sign players to contract amounts so that they can outperform their cap AAV and contracts.

Kuch's 39g & 100 points earn him $9.5 mil and then he put 41g & 128 points, which validated his contract.

So if Marner's wants +$10.5 mil per, then how many points should we expect so that he can validate his new contract?

Didn't he win all those awards etc after he had signed his contract?

Yes, so if Marner gets more $$ on his new deal in comparison, we can then also hope he brings him some hardware like the Hart and Conn Smythe.

 

[Nithoniniel]

So what you're saying is you want to sign players to contract amounts so that they can outperform their cap AAV and contracts.

Kuch's 39g & 100 points earn him $9.5 mil and then he put 41g & 128 points, which validated his contract.

So if Marner's wants +$10.5 mil per, then how many points should we expect so that he can validate his new contract?

This is some kind of absurd logic even for you, Mess.

To validate his contract, Marner needs to play at the level that warranted such a contract. That's all.

 

[Mess]

This is some kind of absurd logic even for you, Mess.

To validate his contract, Marner needs to play at the level that warranted such a contract. That's all.

Based on what level?

Lets put down some tangible and measurable hard stat production figures that would warrant a $10 mil mil AAV.

What are your #'s that would warrant that contract?

If Marner gets a double digit AAV contract putting him among the top 5-10 highest paid players in the game then he should perform at that level.. Hard to argue that point, as that is precisely what I'm saying myself, only defining level of play based on actual production. Contracts are based on production and comparables, so why wouldn't contract evaluation also?

I'm saying if Leafs are paying Marner $10 mil AAV per then what is their expected ROI (return on investment) statistically for the cap hit they're incurring?

The way the Leafs are paying Matthews as the 3rd highest paid player, and JT the 4th, and soon if Marner is joining them in the top 10, we're hoping for a 3 way tie for the Conn Smythe.

 

[zeke]

Check out you answer on post 864 of version XVI of the Marner thread from July 17th. That looks a lot like an expected GF stat. Have you an Dubas moved on from that stat in 2 weeks?

Salary Cap: - Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

not sure exactly which post you're referring to there but xGF is not the same as xGF% and is not the same as xGF% Rel.

 

[Notsince67]

So what you're saying is you want to sign players to contract amounts so that they can outperform their cap AAV and contracts.

Kuch's 39g & 100 points earn him $9.5 mil and then he put 41g & 128 points, which validated his contract.

So if Marner's wants +$10.5 mil per, then how many points should we expect so that he can validate his new contract?



Yes, so if Marner gets more $$ on his new deal in comparison, we can then also hope he brings him some hardware like the Hart and Conn Smythe.

I kind of laugh when people imply that Kucherov's season is sustainable.
He had a Jagr like year and is paid nowhere near what Jagr was. The thing is that everyone knew Jagr could repeat it. If Kucherov puts up 100 point year next year, he will have had an extremely good year.

 

[Craig Button]

Probably worth noting that Kucherov signed his deal with the Lightning before he put up his monster 128 point season.

At the time Kucherov signed his contract, he just turned in a 39 goal/100 point campaign. Also elite and still more productive than Marner's 26 goal/94 point season.

Advantage goes to Kucherov for goals.
Advantage goes to Marner for being 4 years younger.

Kuch also gave a discount to Tampa.
He can afford to because of the taxes.
Kuch can easily get a 13M contract.

 

[Craig Button]

I kind of laugh when people imply that Kucherov's season is sustainable.
He had a Jagr like year and is paid nowhere near what Jagr was. The thing is that everyone knew Jagr could repeat it. If Kucherov puts up 100 point year next year, he will have had an extremely good year.

Kucherov can sustain it.
He will score ~40 goals.
It depends more if Point scores~40 goals.
Stamkos should score ~40 goals.

It’s extremely likely that he will score at least 110 points.

 

[Mess]

I kind of laugh when people imply that Kucherov's season is sustainable.
He had a Jagr like year and is paid nowhere near what Jagr was. The thing is that everyone knew Jagr could repeat it. If Kucherov puts up 100 point year next year, he will have had an extremely good year.

Kucherov put up 39 goals 100 points (3rd n NHL scoring) and signed a year early for $9.5 mil X 8 years..

Then he produced 41 goals and 128 points (1st in NHL scoring) for that contract... I'd say even if he repeated his 2017-18 & 100 point season he would still be worth the return on investment.

If we now use Kucherov as the base line for all wingers statistically, when using him as direct comparable for Marner then what should his contract $$ be?.

Most in the industry would say below Kucherov and on 8 years, unless one believes Marner will exceed the production levels and then validate earning more and consuming more cap.

I think most Leaf fans are expecting the $$ numbers to be bigger and the term to be shorter.

 

[Notsince67]

Kucherov can sustain it.
He will score ~40 goals.
It depends more if Point scores~40 goals.
Stamkos should score ~40 goals.

It’s extremely likely that he will score at least 110 points.

No. Look at his shooting percentage and goals to expected goals differential. He usually manages to outscore expected goals but this year it wasn't even close.
Many would be surprised that Marner had a higher expected goals than Kucherov did in all situations.

 

[Notsince67]

Kucherov put up 39 goals 100 points (3rd n NHL scoring) and signed a year early for $9.5 mil X 8 years..

Then he produced 41 goals and 128 points (1st in NHL scoring) for that contract... I'd say even if he repeated his 2017-18 & 100 point season he would still be worth the return on investment.

If we now use Kucherov as the base line for all wingers statistically, when using him as direct comparable for Marner then what should his contract $$ be?.

Most in the industry would say below Kucherov and on 8 years, unless one believes Marner will exceed the production levels and then validate earning more and consuming more cap.

I think most Leaf fans are expecting the $$ numbers to be bigger and the term to be shorter.

Well I'd say that if Matthews is being paid 3.1MM more than Stamkos, it is a pretty good bit of evidence that Tampa players are taking a discount.
Second of all, do you really believe that 5 years from now, Kucherov will be outperforming Marner? A 31 year old Kucherov vs a 27 year old Marner?
We have already measured how Kucherov performed when he was Marner's age. Value wise, Marner is worth more that Kucherov over time. The only argument IMO that is relevant is the RFA leverage that needs to be monetized as a negative against Marner. This is an amount that looks to be rather small if one were to look at Matthews contract.

 

[Kurtz]

Well I'd say that if Matthews is being paid 3.1MM more than Stamkos, it is a pretty good bit of evidence that Tampa players are taking a discount.
Second of all, do you really believe that 5 years from now, Kucherov will be outperforming Marner? A 31 year old Kucherov vs a 27 year old Marner?
We have already measured how Kucherov performed when he was Marner's age. Value wise, Marner is worth more that Kucherov over time. The only argument IMO that is relevant is the RFA leverage that needs to be monetized as a negative against Marner. This is an amount that looks to be rather small if one were to look at Matthews contract.

I wonder what the results would be if we posted a: "Would you rather have Kucherov or Marner for the next 5-6 years" poll on the general board. I'd speculate that around 75% would opt for Kuch.

 

[Notsince67]

I wonder what the results would be if we posted a: "Would you rather have Kucherov or Marner for the next 5-6 years" poll on the general board. I'd speculate that around 75% would opt for Kuch.

Sure but they would be wrong. The problem is that you are already biasing results because you are shortening the contract. My point is that over the balance of the contract, even if everyone agrees that Kucherov is better now, Marner will overtake him at some point. You might see a different answer if you posted: who would you prefer?...Marner at 27, 28 and 29 or Kucherov at 31, 32 and 33?

 

[Kurtz]

Sure but they would be wrong. The problem is that you are already biasing results because you are shortening the contract. My point is that over the balance of the contract, even if everyone agrees that Kucherov is better now, Marner will overtake him at some point. You might see a different answer if you posted: who would you prefer?...Marner at 27, 28 and 29 or Kucherov at 31, 32 and 33?

I suspect the percentages wouldn't shift all that much if we framed the question as the next 7-8 years instead of 5-6, to be honest - I wager we'd still be looking at 70 percent + opting for Kuch. If you disagree, we can post the poll and see what we get.

Unless you don't think that public opinion bares any import in this comparison.

 

[Craig Button]

No. Look at his shooting percentage and goals to expected goals differential. He usually manages to outscore expected goals but this year it wasn't even close.
Many would be surprised that Marner had a higher expected goals than Kucherov did in all situations.

Can a ~40 goal scorer continue being a ~40 goal scorer? Yes!

Will he get over 85 assists?
Well that depends on Brayden Point scoring ~40 goals.
Stamkos should score ~40 goals.

Will Kucherov get over 100 points?
Extremely likely.

Will Kuch get over 120 point?
Stamkos would have to be healthy and score 45+ goals
Point would have to score more than 40.
My guess it won’t happen again.

But, I expect Kuch to score 110-110 points.

 

[Craig Button]

Kucherov put up 39 goals 100 points (3rd n NHL scoring) and signed a year early for $9.5 mil X 8 years..

Then he produced 41 goals and 128 points (1st in NHL scoring) for that contract... I'd say even if he repeated his 2017-18 & 100 point season he would still be worth the return on investment.

If we now use Kucherov as the base line for all wingers statistically, when using him as direct comparable for Marner then what should his contract $$ be?.

Most in the industry would say below Kucherov and on 8 years, unless one believes Marner will exceed the production levels and then validate earning more and consuming more cap.

I think most Leaf fans are expecting the $$ numbers to be bigger and the term to be shorter.

You can’t use Kuch’s contract as a baseline because it was a hometown discount just as you wouldn’t use Stamkos as a baseline to determine how much Tavares was worth.

 

[Notsince67]

Can a ~40 goal scorer continue being a ~40 goal scorer? Yes!

Will he get over 85 assists?
Well that depends on Brayden Point scoring ~40 goals.
Stamkos should score ~40 goals.

Will Kucherov get over 100 points?
Extremely likely.

Will Kuch get over 120 point?
Stamkos would have to be healthy and score 45+ goals
Point would have to score more than 40.
My guess it won’t happen again.

But, I expect Kuch to score 110-110 points.

predicting +/- 10% isn't a big stretch. He could also see a season where he scores 90

 

[613Leafer]

Probably worth noting that Kucherov signed his deal with the Lightning before he put up his monster 128 point season.

At the time Kucherov signed his contract, he just turned in a 39 goal/100 point campaign. Also elite and still more productive than Marner's 26 goal/94 point season.

Advantage goes to Kucherov for goals.
Advantage goes to Marner for being 4 years younger.

Kucherov gave up far more UFA years, which are more expensive.

Kucherov also had two top 5 finishes in the league for points. Marner currently has zero top 10 finishes (let alone top 5). That's a substantial difference.

 

[Nithoniniel]

But, I expect Kuch to score 110-110 points.

Quite the range you've got there.

 

[Mess]

You can’t use Kuch’s contract as a baseline because it was a hometown discount just as you wouldn’t use Stamkos as a baseline to determine how much Tavares was worth.

TB seems to be getting their players signed at wholesale ticket prices, while Leafs seems to be paying full retail + markup for theirs.

With everyone playing by the same salary cap rules this does not bode well for our Leafs.

Similarly if TB gets Point locked up for $8.5 mil and Leafs are paying Marner $10.5 mil for similar production.

 

[Notsince67]

I suspect the percentages wouldn't shift all that much if we framed the question as the next 7-8 years instead of 5-6, to be honest - I wager we'd still be looking at 70 percent + opting for Kuch. If you disagree, we can post the poll and see what we get.

Unless you don't think that public opinion bares any import in this comparison.

Not interested in an appeal to authority argument. Go for it if you want. Hardly scientific either way

 

[Kamiccolo]

TB seems to be getting their players signed at wholesale ticket prices, while Leafs seems to be paying full retail + markup for theirs.

With everyone playing by the same salary cap rules this does not bode well for our Leafs.

Similarly if TB gets Point locked up for $8.5 mil and Leafs are paying Marner $10.5 mil for similar production.

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantee's they are done improving their team going forward.

 

[Confucius]

It's probably in everybody's best interests if the offersheeting team actually makes a trade with us instead

We're in win now mode so something or somethings that help us win now is probably in our best interests and the offersheet team would be better served giving up something less than 4 unprotected 1st round picks

Like Werenski or Werenski + for Marner

I seriously doubt it comes to that however, I still think Marner's going to be a Leaf long term

Why would an offersheeting team rather make a trade with us? You think they would want to give us more value than 4 1sts and the 10.5 million in cap space.
4 1sts and 10.5 million in capspace > werenski