Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Ziggdiezan]

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantee's they are done improving their team going forward.

Ya I would say the Vasa signing just burst the bubble on the 'Tampa gets all their players to sign discounts' idea.

Cant see Point willing to take a discount now, honestly he is by far the best offersheet target in the league.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantees they are done improving their team going forward.

They for sure have to start unloading some good players

 

[justafan22]

Ya I would say the Vasa signing just burst the bubble on the 'Tampa gets all their players to sign discounts' idea.

Cant see Point willing to take a discount now, honestly he is by far the best offersheet target in the league.

Point refused to sign with Montreal.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ya I would say the Vasa signing just burst the bubble on the 'Tampa gets all their players to sign discounts' idea.

Cant see Point willing to take a discount now, honestly he is by far the best offersheet target in the league.

I don't get how people take the "state taxes" angle seriously. Like any money-motivated player is going to look at a comparable player in another market that pays more tax and think "I should make the same net dollars as that guy" instead of "I should make the same gross dollars as that guy, and take more home"

 

[IPS]

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantee's they are done improving their team going forward.

Seems to be dwindling away more and more with each signing around the league.

I'm sure the panic merchants will find something else to move onto though.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantee's they are done improving their team going forward.

They really dodged a bullet with Callahan... now theyve been able to kick the can down the road till next year when Vasi kicks in and they have to sign Sergachev and Cierelli

 

[ACC1224]

Why would an offersheeting team rather make a trade with us? You think they would want to give us more value than 4 1sts and the 10.5 million in cap space.
4 1sts and 10.5 million in capspace > werenski

It allows them to sign Marner to 8 years instead of 7.
Moot, IMO. Marner doesn't want to play anywhere but here.

 

[Craig Button]

predicting +/- 10% isn't a big stretch. He could also see a season where he scores 90

If Kuch and Stamkos get injured that can happen.
If all 3 are healthy that’s very unlikely

 

[Dough72]

Based on what level?

Lets put down some tangible and measurable hard stat production figures that would warrant a $10 mil mil AAV.

Milan Lucic scored 6 goals and makes 6 million therefore Marner needs to sore 10 goals to earn 10 million

 

[Kiwi]

Why would an offersheeting team rather make a trade with us? You think they would want to give us more value than 4 1sts and the 10.5 million in cap space.
4 1sts and 10.5 million in capspace > werenski

Because it makes more sense than an offersheet for both sides

We would get "win now" pieces which fits our timeline better and nobody wants to give up 4 unprotected 1st round picks

There's a reason you see trades every year and an offersheet every half decade, a trade is a better more palatable option for everybody involved

 

[Menzinger]

It's the times. League-wide trend. Every single high profile RFA is doing this right now, with the exception of Matthews and Aho. The only difference with us is that we had the first case, and is one of only two teams to have two of these right now.

Plenty of talk that we might have a couple of Nylanders this year, unfortunately.

If the League had given rfas arbitration rights immediately post ELC contrscte thered be zero holdouts. Looks like we may get a couple.this season depending on how things unfold

 

[CDN24]

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantee's they are done improving their team going forward.

Okay Matthews,Tavares and Nylander make a combined 29.6, lets add Marner at 11.6 (matthews money for arguments sake -he won't get quite that much) thats $41.2M not 45.

Kuch/Vasi/stamkos/ hedman/ Mcdonough make a combined $42.1M, give point matthews money too and its 53.75 not 55M. Realistically I think Toronto will have about $40M tied up in 4F. and Tampa will have 51 or or 52M tied up in 3F, 2D and their No 1 Goalie. There is a difference.

After Point Tampa does not have any significant pieces due major raises. Toronto has 3, The top 2 d men and the no 1 goalie. Just add Rielly and Anderson at their current cap hits of $5M each and both Toronto and Tampa will have about $52M tied up in 6 guys. The Leafs problem will be that the two non forwards will need a significant raise in 2 and 3 years.
Tampa is still in a better position. At the end of the day 50% of you cap tied up in 4F is too much, one has to go.

Tampa does provide some interesting compareables though. Can you see Anderson getting less than 8.5 or 9 (based on Vasi's number?) Which Tampa forward would you prefer to have (ignoring salary) Stamkos or Kuch. I think I prefer Kucherov but Stamkos is the goal scoring centre who is supposed to be more important positionaly. Then you have point who brings the best of both worlds.

I think Tampa will get point done for something similar to kucherov's dollars, There is room for that this year with Callahan LTIR. Next year is tight when Vasilisky's new deal kicks in- about 77M tied up in 8F 4D and 2 G. With Cap where it currently is that leaves $4M for 6 guys plus a couple spares- not enough. They may have to move another player in the 4 to 5M range like Killhorn Johnsson or Palat.

 

[Confucius]

and nobody wants to give up 4 unprotected 1st round picks

It's why Marner is going nowhere and he will have to take Dubas best offer. We wont trade him.

 

[Mess]

Well they just signed their goalie to 9.5 AAV so I suspect Tampa is just about done as a contender. For all the doom and gloom over Matthews + Marner + Tavares + Nylander making 45M, Tampa will have 6 players making 55M. On top of that they have several RFA's due for a new deal next year.

It basically guarantee's they are done improving their team going forward.

So TB locking up their Vezina winning goalie Vas + Norris trophy winning Dman Hedman + 2 X Rocket Richard winning captain Stamkos + the NHL's Hart, Art Ross and Lindsey league MVP and leading scorer for $35 mil now makes then done as a competitor, while Leafs signing Matthews + Tavares + Marner (~$10.5) for ~ $33 mil is seen as the equivalent but all is fine.

Not sure I can agree with that.

TB's players are the elite by their positions and taking less than cap than Leafs.

 

[Heisen]

Gusev is a winger who just signed for 4.5 x 2, he has 0 goals in the NHL. Paul has adjusted his son's asks to ∞ x 4 accordingly.

 

[Albi34]

So TB locking up their Vezina winning goalie Vas + Norris trophy winning Dman Hedman + 2 X Rocket Richard winning captain Stamkos + the NHL's Hart, Art Ross and Lindsey league MVP and leading scorer for $35 mil now makes then done as a competitor, while Leafs signing Matthews + Tavares + Marner (~$10.5) for ~ $33 mil is seen as the equivalent but all is fine.

Not sure I can agree with that.

TB's players are the elite by their positions and taking less than cap than Leafs.

TB killed it with their contracts..you can compare that to almost any team and say "see how much better this is?" Everyone knows their stars are underpaid. Vasi is the first questionable one imo.

 

[Mess]

Milan Lucic scored 6 goals and makes 6 million therefore Marner needs to sore 10 goals to earn 10 million

You're using a bad contract to validate Marner's contract so if Marner scores 10 goals for $10 mil it will be equally bad.

I was working under the premise we we're trying to sign Marner to the a GOOD contract in a Cap World and get a good return in investment..

 

[Kamiccolo]

So TB locking up their Vezina winning goalie Vas + Norris trophy winning Dman Hedman + 2 X Rocket Richard winning captain Stamkos + the NHL's Hart, Art Ross and Lindsey league MVP and leading scorer for $35 mil now makes then done as a competitor, while Leafs signing Matthews + Tavares + Marner (~$10.5) for ~ $33 mil is seen as the equivalent but all is fine.

Not sure I can agree with that.

TB's players are the elite by their positions and taking less than cap than Leafs.

Well, Matthews > Stamkos pretty easily. Hedman is pretty damn over rated as well. He got Norris votes last year and he wasn't very good. Rielly is just as good as he is, and if not for the Leafs defensive reputation, would have a better rep around the league.

Tavares > Kucherov due to position.

 

[Havoc]

Tampa does provide some interesting compareables though. Can you see Anderson getting less than 8.5 or 9 (based on Vasi's number?)

Vasilevskiy isn't precedent for Andersen. He just won a vezina.

Andersen's current comparable is Connor Helleybuck. Jets are pretty much the Leafs of the West. Buck had vezina worthy numbers when he signed his contract as well.

The team that is truly screwed in terms of goalie cap space is Washington. Holtby will have a vezina and a cup when he needs a new contract.

If Fred plays his way into 8-9 mil range I'm not going to complain. That most likely means a cup for us.

 

[LaPlante94]

TB killed it with their contracts..you can compare that to almost any team and say "see how much better this is?" Everyone knows their stars are underpaid. Vasi is the first questionable one imo.

The thing that bothers me is that people say that their state tax is why these players take lower AAV in TB, yet we can give our players massive signing bonuses and all that to make them get paid way more than any other player in the league and we're still getting screwed with AAV that hurt our cap. Oh well, I have faith in the management group so we just gotta wait and see.

 

[Kiwi]

It's why Marner is going nowhere and he will have to take Dubas best offer. We wont trade him.

I've always said I don't think Marner is going anywhere

I'd also like to point out however that this deal probably isn't going to be very pretty when all is said and done, we don't "win" deals with our upper end RFA'S so let's not pretend that marner is going to be a "good boy" and take Dubas "best offer"

 

[Confucius]

I've always said I don't think Marner is going anywhere

I'd also like to point out however that this deal probably isn't going to be very pretty when all is said and done, we don't "win" deals with our upper end RFA'S so let's not pretend that marner is going to be a "good boy" and take Dubas "best offer"

I guess that's where I differ from most other posters, I say he has to and that's the way I'd handle it. There's my best offer Marner, sign or sit that is going to be your only options. Id also bet he wont sit, especially since sitting may be for 2 years if there is a lockout. I'm not trading you. So as I said he really has no choice.

 

[NCoRe]

Theres so many comments... Cant seem to find, what is the latest rumour for the number and term, or is there?

 

[ACC1224]

I guess that's where I differ from most other posters, I say he has to and that's the way I'd handle it. There's my best offer Marner, sign or sit that is going to be your only options. Id also bet he wont sit, especially since sitting may be for 2 years if there is a lockout. I'm not trading you. So as I said he really has no choice.

You want to come to a resolution where everyone is happy.
Sitting for 2 years isn't an outcome either side will want.

 

[Craig Button]

TB seems to be getting their players signed at wholesale ticket prices, while Leafs seems to be paying full retail + markup for theirs.

With everyone playing by the same salary cap rules this does not bode well for our Leafs.

Similarly if TB gets Point locked up for $8.5 mil and Leafs are paying Marner $10.5 mil for similar production.

They’ll get him locked for that or less.
Kucherov has chemistry with everyone.
Point is replaceable.
I can’t see TB signing him for more than 8M