Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Notsince67]

What are your error bars for raw points?

Zero

 

[zeke]

Zero

Same.

 

[Notsince67]

Same.

Ahhh...a fan of pin the tail on the donkey then. Without ever verifying that the donkey wasnt pinned to your backside.

 

[zeke]

Ahhh...a fan of pin the tail on the donkey then. Without ever verifying that the donkey wasnt pinned to your backside.

You don't even know what you're trying to criticize anymore.

 

[Notsince67]

You don't even know what you're trying to criticize anymore.

If you believe there are no errorbars on expected goals, it explains a lot about why you believe they are zero

 

[zeke]

If you believe there are no errorbars on expected goals, it explains a lot about why you believe they are zero

Why are you talking about expected goals?

 

[Notsince67]

Why are you talking about expected goals?

You cite the stat regularly and then lay out that points tell you less about what is going on not more.

 

[zeke]

You cite the stat regularly and then lay out that points tell you less about what is going on not more.

1. I never use expected goals for as an isolated stat, ever.

2. Every comp I have used in this thread has been built on comparing p/60 numbers for offense.

3. Yes, points are less informative than the numbers I have been using.

 

[Notsince67]

1. I never use expected goals for as an isolated stat, ever.

2. Every comp I have used in this thread has been built on comparing p/60 numbers for offense.

3. Yes, points are less informative than the numbers I have been using.

xGFrel is not a derivation of expected goals?.....ok

 

[zeke]

xGFrel is not a derivation of expected goals?.....ok

1. Xgfrel does use xgf but only within the context of a) overall 2 way impact, b) teammate quality c) team systems.

2. While I always include that kind of contextualized overall impact number in any comparison I do (along with other factors like quality of competition), as it's necessary to consider, you'll notice that the comparisons I made were ranked and grouped primarily on the offensive numbers - points and primary points per minute. The impact numbers were included to give us a snapshot of each player's overall impact aside from pure point production, which I assume we all think is important.

 

[hoglund]

Simmons from the Sun said that the Leafs won't sign Marner until the beginning of the season, meaning he'll miss training camp and the first few games.

 

[Al14]

Simmons from the Sun said that the Leafs won't sign Marner until the beginning of the season, meaning he'll miss training camp and the first few games.

Missing training camp should work out well.

 

[hoglund]

Missing training camp should work out well.

Similar to Nylander, well not as bad as that, he won't miss half the season.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Simmons from the Sun said that the Leafs won't sign Marner until the beginning of the season, meaning he'll miss training camp and the first few games.

Why in the actual f*** is this what will happen. What changes from before camp and after camp other than a bad start for both player and team. Damn this is getting annoying. Just sign.

 

[horner]

Why in the actual **** is this what will happen. What changes from before camp and after camp other than a bad start for both player and team. Damn this is getting annoying. Just sign.

He can't sign till they can put Clarkson and Horton cap hit on long term injury .

 

[TML Dynasty]

He can't sign till they can put Clarkson and Horton cap hit on long term injury .

which they can do today right? LTIR can be used in off season especially in cases like these two who are locks. (more convoluted than that, but that's the idea)

 

[hoglund]

Why in the actual **** is this what will happen. What changes from before camp and after camp other than a bad start for both player and team. Damn this is getting annoying. Just sign.

I agree, this is what Steve Simmons from the Sun is saying, who knows what will happen.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

Let's see...

Two consecutive seasons in which two smug pukes who've won nothing sit out demanding more than they're worth. Obviously no guarantee Marner sits out, but at this point, it looks likely. It's all about face now (in fact, it always was). This is extremely bad for hard-to-measure, but very important, factors like team chemistry.

Has there ever been another team in which two players who've helped their team to win exactly sweet f-all have pulled a stunt like this in two consecutive seasons? It beggars belief.

If he does extend the tantrum into the season, hopefully the Leafs have a fantastic start and make him expendable. As for sitting out--a player who does that has to be essentially hoping his own team does poorly without him.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Let's see...

Two consecutive seasons in which two smug pukes who've won nothing sit out demanding more than they're worth. Obviously no guarantee Marner sits out, but at this point, it looks likely. It's all about face now (in fact, it always was). This is extremely bad for hard-to-measure, but very important, factors like team chemistry.

Has there ever been another team in which two players who've helped their team to win exactly sweet f-all have pulled a stunt like this in two consecutive seasons? It beggars belief.

If he does extend the tantrum into the season, hopefully the Leafs have a fantastic start and make him expendable. As for sitting out--a player who does that has to be essentially hoping his own team does poorly without him.

It's the times. League-wide trend. Every single high profile RFA is doing this right now, with the exception of Matthews and Aho. The only difference with us is that we had the first case, and is one of only two teams to have two of these right now.

Plenty of talk that we might have a couple of Nylanders this year, unfortunately.

 

[horner]

which they can do today right? LTIR can be used in off season especially in cases like these two who are locks. (more convoluted than that, but that's the idea)

You are probably right.
That is why the pay for these specialists to find ever ounce of space.

 

[TML Dynasty]

If he sits, I just worry that the players see this as a slight to Marner....further pissing off his buddy AM leading to less likely resigning. Definitely overthinking it but Id rather the players who are here actually want and love to play here. I already see Babcock's usage and style maybe giving them reason to be unhappy.

 

[Mess]

If he sits, I just worry that the players see this as a slight to Marner....further pissing off his buddy AM leading to less likely resigning. Definitely overthinking it but Id rather the players who are here actually want and love to play here. I already see Babcock's usage and style maybe giving them reason to be unhappy.

Babcock's usage was due the luxury of team depth last year where he had a 3rd line of Marleau -- Kadri -- Nylander which allowed him to play the Matthews and JT lines less at ES and a better balanced top 9.

Now that has changed with the raises to Matthews and soon Marner that his 3rd line is now Moore -- Kerfoot -- Kapanen and they will see less TOI/g than Kadri's line which by default means;

Johnsson -- Matthews -- Nylander & Hyman (when healthy) -- Tavares -- Marner lines will see a bump in playing time simply because > 1/2 the teams salary cap resides on those 2 lines and if they don't produce steadily and regularly Leafs will be in serious trouble.

Marner and Matthews likely to see a spike in as much as +2 mins ATOI/g as a result of Leafs depth taking a big hit.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Babcock's usage was due the luxury of team depth last year where he had a 3rd line of Marleau -- Kadri -- Nylander which allowed him to play the Matthews and JT lines less at ES and a better balanced top 9.

Now that has changed with the raises to Matthews and soon Marner that his 3rd line is now Moore -- Kerfoot -- Kapanen and they will see less TOI/g than Kadri's line which by default means;

Johnsson -- Matthews -- Nylander & Hyman (when healthy) -- Tavares -- Marner lines will see a bump in playing time simply because > 1/2 the teams salary cap resides on those 2 lines and if they don't produce steadily and regularly Leafs will be in serious trouble.

Marner and Matthews likely to see a spike in as much as +2 mins ATOI/g as a result of Leafs depth taking a big hit.

For the bolded: I really hope so! And yeah I agree no real excuse I can see to not do it.....so over to you Babs.

 

[MyBudJT]

We need more Marner positivity around here. This popped up on my Youtube! Great Call by Joe Bowen too!

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Babcock's usage was due the luxury of team depth last year where he had a 3rd line of Marleau -- Kadri -- Nylander which allowed him to play the Matthews and JT lines less at ES and a better balanced top 9.

Now that has changed with the raises to Matthews and soon Marner that his 3rd line is now Moore -- Kerfoot -- Kapanen and they will see less TOI/g than Kadri's line which by default means;

Johnsson -- Matthews -- Nylander & Hyman (when healthy) -- Tavares -- Marner lines will see a bump in playing time simply because > 1/2 the teams salary cap resides on those 2 lines and if they don't produce steadily and regularly Leafs will be in serious trouble.

Marner and Matthews likely to see a spike in as much as +2 mins ATOI/g as a result of Leafs depth taking a big hit.

But Kadri, Nylander, and Marleau all had horrible seasons last year. So it should have been pretty clear to Babcock early that that depth wasn’t really there...