Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[PromisedLand]

How do you calculate error bars then?

interesting point. I've never seen a "margin of error" with any statistical metric associated with hockey; in the world of academia these results would be laughed at. I have never seen any academic paper that presents a model without a section on "Limitation", "power of interpretation"; and standard errors presented.

Metcalf was the only analytics guy (he also ran extraskater website); who always talked about the limitations of all the metrics being presented and every analytics guy in hockey is pissed at him for doing so. Am glad Leafs hired him; he knows what to take but more importantly what "not" to take from these analytics

 

[Nylander88]

That depends on what Marner actually wants.

If he wants to sign an offer sheet, but wants the leafs to match, then he has less leverage by waiting till November.

I think this one is pretty cut and dry. He's signed before the season starts or he's sitting the year. They aren't rewarding Marner for twisting their arm by desperately needing that extra million and having to unload Johnsson or Kapanen for cap space. If Marner isn't under contract for game 1, this is the year you see a guy sit the entire season imo. I think Dubas is through playing games

 

[Mr Hockey]

I’ve looked at natural stat-trick and I’m not sure how they chart.
I can’t imagine NHL teams use these same stats because they don’t account for everything that happened.

natural stat-trick, Corsica and any other public analytics hock3y site get all there stats from the same database ...

 

[Nineteen67]

I think this one is pretty cut and dry. He's signed before the season starts or he's sitting the year. They aren't rewarding Marner for twisting their arm by desperately needing that extra million and having to unload Johnsson or Kapanen for cap space. If Marner isn't under contract for game 1, this is the year you see a guy sit the entire season imo. I think Dubas is through playing games

Nylander sat out all last year and dangled at the WHC, maybe Mitch will do he same. Go Canada...

 

[Nylander88]

Nylander sat out all last year and dangled at the WHC, maybe Mitch will do he same. Go Canada...

I remember Nylander playing though lol As do a lot of others that love to bash and label him for a bad half season lol we don't have the cap luxury to let Mitch drag into the season

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I remember Nylander playing though lol As do a lot of others that love to bash and label him for a bad half season lol we don't have the cap luxury to let Mitch drag into the season

Remember... Nylander apparently was 100% going to suck last year, and it wasn't his fault. Why? He missed camp/preaseason/and 2 months of the season.

Dermott and Hyman are missing camp/preseason/and at least 1 month of the season. So they're useless all year. and it's not their fault. And it's entirely 100% unreasonable to expect them to play competently at any point in the season. These are the lessons are learned from Nylander fans on these boards.

And Marner? If he misses the beginning of the season, expect a Nylander drop off (even though there is no precedent of this spanning nhl history OTHER than Nylander himself). 20 goals/60 points turned into a 10 goal/35 point pace. So with Marner, I guess we can expect a 13 goal/50 point pace next year, if he holds out.

 

[Confucius]

If someone decides to OS Mitch over 10.7M then Leafs will take the 4 1st rounders. But no one has done it. Why it is Marner himself. You are going to have to go to 13.5M AAV to get him. and even likely a little higher depending on state tax situation. Bottom line is no one wants to pay him that kinda money. But he requires that to come out better than Leafs deal. The whole thing is a big joke when you really get into the $$$. The Leafs are well aware of the hockey and non hockey comp. If he was best player in league sure what da h*ll do it. But he is not even a top 5 winger. It is a total joke. Complete game of BS Ferris is playing while he nickels and dimes Dubie up from 10M for 8 years.

Just once I would love to see a GM, preferably Dubas, say, this is it that's all your getting and watch the smart guy explain to his client why he is making zero dollars in the NHL, the next year, or more.

Ya could have been a star, so much potential.

 

[Notsince67]

natural stat-trick, Corsica and any other public analytics hock3y site get all there stats from the same database ...

natural stat-trick, Corsica and any other public analytics hock3y site get all there stats from the same database ...

When you are looking at the more complicated metrics such as expected goals, there is more than one calculation and the regressions are done on a sample of data....they dont regress variables on the fly. Many need to be recalibrated regularly. Shot angle coefficients is one that can really mess up stuff if not adjusted over a period of time...minimally every season.

 

[Nineteen67]

When you are looking at the more complicated metrics such as expected goals, there is more than one calculation and the regressions are done on a sample of data....they dont regress variables on the fly. Many need to be recalibrated regularly. Shot angle coefficients is one that can really mess up stuff if not adjusted over a period of time...minimally every season.

Does this mean; when a guy gets a chance in a High Danger Scoring Area he doesn’t get his shot off because the D did something to prevent that chance yet it still counts as a HDSC?
Watching it, you knew there was no way there would be a a goal, but the stats count a chance?

 

[Notsince67]

Does this mean; when a guy gets a chance in a High Danger Scoring Area he doesn’t get his shot off because the D did something to prevent that chance yet it still counts as a HDSC?
Watching it, you knew there was no way there would be a a goal, but the stats count a chance?

No but that is another problem. I haven't read about any calculations that account for blocked shots. This is merely shot angle that have varying degrees of success year over year.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Just once I would love to see a GM, preferably Dubas, say, this is it that's all your getting and watch the smart guy explain to his client why he is making zero dollars in the NHL, the next year, or more.

Ya could have been a star, so much potential.

He's done that implicitely at this point. There's 10.5 to spend, any more and you have to explain to your teammate that he's being traded so you can make a million more for your ego.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Two things for what it’s worth

First can you guys start an analytical metric argument in a separate thread instead of in the Marner thread.The same three or four posters (who I like to read their posts-not analytics themed) are not sticking to the subject at hand.

Second I know there is a done deal with marner in principal. Just sorting out the small stuff .im not saying how I know. Don’t ask. I don’t care if you don’t believe it. Just letting you know marner is not going anywhere via offer sheet or trade.

 

[Notsince67]

Two things for what it’s worth

First can you guys start an analytical metric argument in a separate thread instead of in the Marner thread.The same three or four posters (who I like to read their posts-not analytics themed) are not sticking to the subject at hand.

Second I know there is a done deal with marner in principal. Just sorting out the small stuff .im not saying how I know. Don’t ask. I don’t care if you don’t believe it. Just letting you know marner is not going anywhere via offer sheet or trade.

So hypothetically, if such a deal exists, would it be correct to say a short term deal is likely agreed to and they are just exploring opportunities of trying to negotiate the possibility of a longer deal?

 

[zeke]

How do you calculate error bars then?

What are your error bars for raw points?

 

[Bigmarycombo]

So hypothetically, if such a deal exists, would it be correct to say a short term deal is likely agreed to and they are just exploring opportunities of trying to negotiate the possibility of a longer deal?

Just ironing out details but yes length is the last to be negotiated

 

[PromisedLand]

According to Rick Dhawliwal of Sportsnet, President Brendan Shanahan stepped in and blocked a contract that was ready to be signed between the two sides.
Dhawliwal says Shanahan wouldn't approve the deal that happened about two weeks ago.
Shanahan stepping in could be a good thing though as Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period appeared on TSN690 Friday and said that Shanahan is taking a much more active role in the negotiations and believes Shanahan will do his best to make sure Marner is suited up for Game 1 of the season.


Shanny has had enough of inflated contracts?

 

[shakes]

According to Rick Dhawliwal of Sportsnet, President Brendan Shanahan stepped in and blocked a contract that was ready to be signed between the two sides.
Dhawliwal says Shanahan wouldn't approve the deal that happened about two weeks ago.
Shanahan stepping in could be a good thing though as Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period appeared on TSN690 Friday and said that Shanahan is taking a much more active role in the negotiations and believes Shanahan will do his best to make sure Marner is suited up for Game 1 of the season.


Shanny has had enough of inflated contracts?

So Shanahan apparently blocked a contract (again? or is this the same BS that people argued about on here a few weeks ago), and now is in charge of the negotiations and will do his best to make sure Marner suited up for Game 1? Sounds... unlikely

 

[PromisedLand]

So Shanahan apparently blocked a contract (again? or is this the same BS that people argued about on here a few weeks ago), and now is in charge of the negotiations and will do his best to make sure Marner suited up for Game 1? Sounds... unlikely

Its dated July 19th so its old; I just saw it so posted it

 

[Mr Hockey]

According to Rick Dhawliwal of Sportsnet, President Brendan Shanahan stepped in and blocked a contract that was ready to be signed between the two sides.
Dhawliwal says Shanahan wouldn't approve the deal that happened about two weeks ago.
Shanahan stepping in could be a good thing though as Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period appeared on TSN690 Friday and said that Shanahan is taking a much more active role in the negotiations and believes Shanahan will do his best to make sure Marner is suited up for Game 1 of the season.


Shanny has had enough of inflated contracts?

I'm thinking all the other GM's sent Shanny a text after the Matthews deal and told him to put a leash on the kid with the glasses

 

[DueDiligence]

According to Rick Dhawliwal of Sportsnet, President Brendan Shanahan stepped in and blocked a contract that was ready to be signed between the two sides.
Dhawliwal says Shanahan wouldn't approve the deal that happened about two weeks ago.
Shanahan stepping in could be a good thing though as Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period appeared on TSN690 Friday and said that Shanahan is taking a much more active role in the negotiations and believes Shanahan will do his best to make sure Marner is suited up for Game 1 of the season.


Shanny has had enough of inflated contracts?

So Shanahan steps in and blocks a contract before it is signed and that is a good thing? Sounds like the opposite.

 

[FlareKnight]

At this point we should just be ready for more stupid rumors being thrown around with zero basis behind them. Just in a phase of trying to imply that Shanahan is involved in contract negotiations. When that passes it will be back to offer sheets or trade rumors.

 

[tmlfan98]

At this point I think it's gonna be either 10.416x6 or 8.416x3. If it's the former we would have to dump Ceci.

 

[Metroid]

I'm thinking all the other GM's sent Shanny a text after the Matthews deal and told him to put a leash on the kid with the glasses

Maybe they should do the same with your posts

 

[Mr Hockey]

Maybe they should do the same with your posts

like they have with you?

 

[Metroid]

like they have with you?

No one's done anything with me