Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Notsince67]

never watched a game in my life.

you guys that actually watch hockey games have such an advantage over me.

No. By all means, describe a game and the talent the way you have been for awhile. With zero qualitative descriptions and with problematic metrics that have known year to year problems due to things such as uncalibrated obscure variables such as angular coefficients. All for the satisfaction of achieving less than a .5 r^2 when running optimally. This is some serious 3d chess.

 

[ToneDog]

No. By all means, describe a game and the talent the way you have been for awhile. With zero qualitative descriptions and with problematic metrics that have known year to year problems due to things such as uncalibrated obscure variables such as angular coefficients. All for the satisfaction of achieving less than a .5 r^2 when running optimally. This is some serious 3d chess.

Checkers and Xs and Os are my games. What the hell are you talking about ??

 

[mouser]

Think it’s safe to say Marner’s offer sheet leverage is close to gone.

Just get a deal signed FFS

I think the offer sheet leverage is gone for the moment. If he's still unsigned by day 1 of the season then that offer sheet leverage will increase with each day he misses.

 

[ToneDog]

I think the offer sheet leverage is gone for the moment. If he's still unsigned by day 1 of the season then that offer sheet leverage will increase with each day he misses.

Why is a team more likely to offersheet him once the season starts as opposed to today ?? Seems to me me his $10+M cap hit would be much easier to get in now than once the season has begun. No ??

 

[ACC1224]

never watched a game in my life.

you guys that actually watch hockey games have such an advantage over me.

Curious, when watching are you constantly checking stats or do you just watch and look at those things after the game is over?

There is no wrong way to enjoy something. I know how I watch, just wondering how others do.

 

[Nylander88]

If someone decides to OS Mitch over 10.7M then Leafs will take the 4 1st rounders. But no one has done it. Why it is Marner himself. You are going to have to go to 13.5M AAV to get him. and even likely a little higher depending on state tax situation. Bottom line is no one wants to pay him that kinda money. But he requires that to come out better than Leafs deal. The whole thing is a big joke when you really get into the $$$. The Leafs are well aware of the hockey and non hockey comp. If he was best player in league sure what da h*ll do it. But he is not even a top 5 winger. It is a total joke. Complete game of BS Ferris is playing while he nickels and dimes Dubie up from 10M for 8 years.

There's no sheet coming and Dubas has set himself up beautifully to match to the 4 firsts threshold. And no team wants to give that up for Marner, because that poor GM doesn't want to have to explain to his wife and children why hes out a job and they have to put their house up for sale lol Dubas has apparently tabled a very reasonable offer of 10mil per x 8yrs, and Marner should take that if he truly loves being a Leaf. Loving Dubas' summer so far. Without having to say it, he's made it quite clear he's ready and willing to let Marner go for over that 10.6 mark. Contract should be fairly simple at this point. Only leverage Marner has is to withhold his services. Which will hurt the player far more than the organization.

 

[zeke]

Curious, when watching are you constantly checking stats or do you just watch and look at those things after the game is over?

There is no wrong way to enjoy something. I know how I watch, just wondering how others do.

i check them most games. sometimes even between periods. i like to learn how the numbers compare to what I see out there.

 

[mouser]

Why is a team more likely to offersheet him once the season starts as opposed to today ?? Seems to me me his $10+M cap hit would be much easier to get in now than once the season has begun. No ??

Because once the season has begun the amount of cap space the Leafs have to fit Marner in effectively decreases with each passing day. That increases the possibility that another team could assemble an offer sheet that the Leafs won't have the space to match, and it doesn't have to be above the 4x first round pick threshold.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Curious, when watching are you constantly checking stats or do you just watch and look at those things after the game is over?

There is no wrong way to enjoy something. I know how I watch, just wondering how others do.

Just chiming in, as someone who uses a lot of stats too.

I don't really think or look at numbers during games. It's all focused on impressions. And enjoying the hockey, of course. But over time, I compare those impressions with what the stats say. If they don't line up, I usually try to keep that in mind for the next time I watch. If it still feels wrong, I go back and look deeper into the numbers to see if there's some reason they might be off. I feel like I understand the game and players better by that process, so it becomes part of enjoying the sport for me.

Our new guy, Kerfoot, is one guy I did this for. Didn't care a lot for him at first, noticed the stats, and had them in my mind when I saw him afterwards. Kept an eye on him, looking in particular for anything that could explain why he had so good defensive stats. Realized after a while that he really read the play well, kept just popping up in just the right spots, kept being in the way when chances were about to open up, and he did lots of smart little plays on the pick with few touches when he did get it.

 

[MyBudJT]

Because once the season has begun the amount of cap space the Leafs have to fit Marner in effectively decreases with each passing day. That increases the possibility that another team could assemble an offer sheet that the Leafs won't have the space to match, and it doesn't have to be above the 4x first round pick threshold.

1) It will have to be over the 10.5M threshold. Leafs can run a 20 man roster if they have to.
2) Leafs would also have a week where they can trade someone to make room for whatever the contract is. Johnsson/Kapanen/Kerfoot are all moveable contracts.

 

[mouser]

1) It will have to be over the 10.5M threshold. Leafs can run a 20 man roster if they have to.
2) Leafs would also have a week where they can trade someone to make room for whatever the contract is. Johnsson/Kapanen/Kerfoot are all moveable contracts.

Possibly, as an extreme example, if Marner signs a $10.5m AAV deal on dec 1st the inflated year one cap would be $15.5m The Leafs would have to move out $5m in contracts along with the LTIR to match, and thinking on it I'm not sure the math even then works out. LTIR is a funny beast--trading someone like Johnsson to match an offer sheet doesn't increase the Leafs's LTIR space. It could take them below the ACSL to have some payroll space though. Yeah, it's weird.

Either way, my point was more that Marner's leverage increases, and less whether the Leafs can match.

 

[zeke]

Curious, when watching are you constantly checking stats or do you just watch and look at those things after the game is over?

There is no wrong way to enjoy something. I know how I watch, just wondering how others do.

just wanted to add that one of the biggest reasons i believe in the analytics we have is that they actually do match up well with what I and other obsessive close game-watchers I know see and have seen for long before the stats were available - for example the stats instantly spotted the massive importance of puck moving dmen that I and others had always stressed was being overlooked all the way back to the early Kaberle days. this is a marked difference from more traditional stats which so often clashed hard with what I saw when watching.

 

[Mr Hockey]

just wanted to add that one of the biggest reasons i believe in the analytics we have is that they actually do match up well with what I and other obsessive close game-watchers I know see and have seen for long before the stats were available - for example the stats instantly spotted the massive importance of puck moving dmen that I and others had always stressed was being overlooked all the way back to the early Kaberle days. this is a marked difference from more traditional stats which so often clashed hard with what I saw when watching.

ok, explain why you considered Dermott to be already a top pairing d'man as of last season, is it because off stats or?

 

[PromisedLand]

No. By all means, describe a game and the talent the way you have been for awhile. With zero qualitative descriptions and with problematic metrics that have known year to year problems due to things such as uncalibrated obscure variables such as angular coefficients. All for the satisfaction of achieving less than a .5 r^2 when running optimally. This is some serious 3d chess.

I absolutely find it laughable when HDCF% is used to show some kind of competency LOL

meanwhile completely disregarding the fact that HDCF% = HDCF/(HDCF+HDCA)*100

and HDCF means an attempt at the net which could be:

• Shot wide and high
• Shot deflected because opposition D-man was in great position
• Opposition D-man or Opposition forward forced the shot/attempt by playing really well defensively
• Shot got blocked
• etc.....

A great pokecheck by the opposition D-man in the HD area would count as HDCF which freakin' laughable

just FYI don't even get me started on xGF and xGA those are some of the DUMBEST stats available

 

[Notsince67]

I absolutely find it laughable when HDCF% is used to show some kind of competency LOL

meanwhile completely disregarding the fact that HDCF% = HDCF/(HDCF+HDCA)*100

and HDCF means an attempt at the net which could be:

• Shot wide and high
• Shot deflected because opposition D-man was in great position
• Opposition D-man or Opposition forward forced the shot/attempt by playing really well defensively
• Shot got blocked
• etc.....

A great pokecheck by the opposition D-man in the HD area would count as HDCF which freakin' laughable

just FYI don't even get me started on xGF and xGA those are some of the DUMBEST stats available

I dont think anything is dumb but to depict this stuff as some magical insight is a bit much. The whole..."you dont know what metrics to use like me and Dubas" schtick is really grating.

 

[Joey Hoser]

i check them most games. sometimes even between periods. i like to learn how the numbers compare to what I see out there.

Personally I never check stats, because sometimes the facts don't line up with my opinion. And when that happens, rather than reconsider my opinion, I prefer to be offended and start insulting the people who look at the facts.

 

[stickty111]

 

[Randy Randerson]

man, for a 35yo that's made ~$30M playing hockey you have to wonder why this guy is still grinding away at it. He's still a good AHL player but if he really just doesn't want to give up playing for the love of being in high level hockey you'd figure there would be better options than moving from California to Hershey PA

 

[zeke]

ok, explain why you considered Dermott to be already a top pairing d'man as of last season, is it because off stats or?

We would have been better off with Dermott on the top pair before hainsey. At least before the injury. He's really good.

 

[PromisedLand]

I dont think anything is dumb but to depict this stuff as some magical insight is a bit much. The whole..."you dont know what metrics to use like me and Dubas" schtick is really grating.

Using a metric that has many holes to paint the picture as absolute IMO is quit dumb.

If pharmaceutical firms justifying the drugs based on psuedo metrics that have explanatory power of 5% or there abouts to proclaim it is the best medicine ever wouldn’t you call that dumb?

 

[Notsince67]

Using a metric that has many holes to paint the picture as absolute IMO is quit dumb.

If pharmaceutical firms justifying the drugs based on psuedo metrics that have explanatory power of 5% or there abouts to proclaim it is the best medicine ever wouldn’t you call that dumb?

I've made a career in data science and I know first hand about the dangers and downright fabrications that this stuff brings in the wrong hands. At the end of the day, the lift with quantitative analysis is incrementally marginal. It never proves to be a replacement for real life events that have happened. That is the whole basis of margin of error calculations.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Possibly, as an extreme example, if Marner signs a $10.5m AAV deal on dec 1st the inflated year one cap would be $15.5m The Leafs would have to move out $5m in contracts along with the LTIR to match, and thinking on it I'm not sure the math even then works out. LTIR is a funny beast--trading someone like Johnsson to match an offer sheet doesn't increase the Leafs's LTIR space. It could take them below the ACSL to have some payroll space though. Yeah, it's weird.

Either way, my point was more that Marner's leverage increases, and less whether the Leafs can match.

That depends on what Marner actually wants.

If he wants to sign an offer sheet, but wants the leafs to match, then he has less leverage by waiting till November.

 

[Notsince67]

There's nothing magical about realizing that raw points are are a bad stat.

It's simple and obvious.

How do you calculate error bars then?

 

[Nineteen67]

just wanted to add that one of the biggest reasons i believe in the analytics we have is that they actually do match up well with what I and other obsessive close game-watchers I know see and have seen for long before the stats were available - for example the stats instantly spotted the massive importance of puck moving dmen that I and others had always stressed was being overlooked all the way back to the early Kaberle days. this is a marked difference from more traditional stats which so often clashed hard with what I saw when watching.

Here do get your analytics? What do you look at between periods?

 

[PromisedLand]

I've made a career in data science and I know first hand about the dangers and downright fabrications that this stuff brings in the wrong hands. At the end of the day, the lift with quantitative analysis is incrementally marginal. It never proves to be a replacement for real life events that have happened. That is the whole basis of margin of error calculations.

Yup! Can't argue with that. The conditional probability of on ice events are just way to hard to model given the randomness from one shift to the next.

And your comments about the "dangers and downright fabrications that this stuff brings in the wrong hands" honestly it can't be said enough not only just for hockey but any subject matter.

Well said!