Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[zeke]

For the record, I think Mitch Marner will be present when camp opens.

I tend to think it'll be a 3 year deal.

I tend to think it'll be in the 8.5M range.

10M of it will be paid in the final year as base salary, ensuring the Marner's qualifying offer for the 4th year is 10M. Similar to Timo Meier's deal.

8M of it will be paid as a signing bonus July 1st 2020, to ensure Marner gets paid if their is a lockout. 750K will be base salary.

Leaving 6.75M for this season, I imagine 6M will be paid immediately, and 750K will be the base salary.



Neither side is really happy with the deal, as that's probably 500K-1M more than TOR would like to pay for that term, and the Marner camp was hoping to be in the double digits on a 5 year term.

But it gets a deal done. Marner is in camp, which is what Toronto wants, and for Marner, he gets lockout protection, he gets that 10M qualifying offer, which he can sign, essentially making this a 4 year deal worth 35.5M, or close to 9M per.

I'll bet on 5yrs x $10.3.

 

[ToneDog]

For the record, I think Mitch Marner will be present when camp opens.

I tend to think it'll be a 3 year deal.

I tend to think it'll be in the 8.5M range.

10M of it will be paid in the final year as base salary, ensuring the Marner's qualifying offer for the 4th year is 10M. Similar to Timo Meier's deal.

8M of it will be paid as a signing bonus July 1st 2020, to ensure Marner gets paid if their is a lockout. 750K will be base salary.

Leaving 6.75M for this season, I imagine 6M will be paid immediately, and 750K will be the base salary.



Neither side is really happy with the deal, as that's probably 500K-1M more than TOR would like to pay for that term, and the Marner camp was hoping to be in the double digits on a 5 year term.

But it gets a deal done. Marner is in camp, which is what Toronto wants, and for Marner, he gets lockout protection, he gets that 10M qualifying offer, which he can sign, essentially making this a 4 year deal worth 35.5M, or close to 9M per.

Makes sense. Leafs print money. Overpay on a bridge and everybody is happy.

And it leaves enough cap space to sign a veteran dman on the cheap.

 

[zeke]

your threadly reminder of the amazing job Dubey has done with our cap situation:

By the numbers: Grading every team's contract efficiency

By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency

Today, we rank (almost) every contract on every team in the league based on the same methodology in an attempt to figure out which teams are the most efficient with the money they spend.

The contracts included in the exercise are every healthy, non-ELC skater that my model has a projection for, as well as any dead money a team has on their cap via buyouts, salary retention and cap recapture penalties. That means no RFAs without a deal, no players on an entry-level deal, no players without a significant NHL sample, no players on LTIR and no goalies. My model doesn’t currently spit out future win projections for goaltenders or expected contract value either, so they were unfortunately omitted. Unused cap space is also not considered as there’s no knowing how that space would be used. This is about the value of each contract currently on the books.

Teams will be graded empirically based on the surplus value they bring in per player contract (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

What’s being assessed is the future value of the remainder of each contract, meaning what a player has already done holds no merit here. Future value means age is crucial in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more seasons give more opportunity to compound value. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection which depends on how much variance there has been in the player’s past numbers. Longer term means that uncertainty increases.

Each contract will be graded based on where their combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of July 15.

#3 - Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto ranking so high may come as a surprise, but that’s mostly because the local media juggernaut tends to blow everything out of proportion in the centre of the hockey universe.

The Auston Matthews deal looks pricey compared to McDavid’s, but that’s an unfair bar to be compared to as both players will be vastly underpaid for their services given their current projected value and trajectory. Matthews is one of the most efficient players in hockey and projects to be the league’s second most valuable player during the life of his contract. The William Nylander deal is far from a problem – assuming he can bounce back with a proper training camp. Signing John Tavares, an obviously elite player, to a very fair deal is not the reason the team has cap issues. The grass is always greener on the other side. Spending to the cap is what contenders have to do.

What the Leafs have going for them is their youth. They’re one of the youngest teams in the league and their core will only get better, meaning surplus value only grows in the coming seasons. The chance that they provide positive value collectively as a result is high. The average 65 percent rate is the second-highest in the league behind Carolina. That they have five forwards locked into positive value deals for four more seasons is a big plus, as is having Rielly on one of the league’s best contracts for three. Those deals will only look better going forward.

The team wouldn’t be here though without the efforts of the front office this summer, clearing most of the team’s bad money off the books in dropping Patrick Marleau and exchanging seven years of a terrible defenceman for one. The Leafs are one of six teams in the league without a contract in the D-range and should see 83 percent of their deals provide positive value. That’s the second-highest in the league. They also saved space where necessary by downgrading on Kadri, but gaining a capable right shot defenceman on a cheap deal, as well as allocating fourth-line resources to league minimum veterans rather than an expensive Connor Brown.

 

[Marshy]

Kudos to Dubas for a job well done. Crap contracts out....Ceci 1 year prove it deal and space to sign Marner. Only the most ardent naysayers could find fault with Dubas' offseason thus far. Marner won't be overpaid greatly if at all. Assuming a fair deal for both sides materializes-- Dubas deserves an A this offseason.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Kudos to Dubas for a job well done. Crap contracts out....Ceci 1 year prove it deal and space to sign Marner. Only the most ardent naysayers could find fault with Dubas' offseason thus far. Marner won't be overpaid greatly if at all. Assuming a fair deal for both sides materializes-- Dubas deserves an A this offseason.

Dubas will be judged next summer on all his transactions ... it could be a job well done or it could be bad

 

[ToneDog]

Kudos to Dubas for a job well done. Crap contracts out....Ceci 1 year prove it deal and space to sign Marner. Only the most ardent naysayers could find fault with Dubas' offseason thus far. Marner won't be overpaid greatly if at all. Assuming a fair deal for both sides materializes-- Dubas deserves an A this offseason.

He just has failed to complete his #1 priority task

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas will be judged next summer on all his transactions ... it could be a job well done or it could be bad

He should be judged by the collection of players he is putting on the ice and how well they do. With the moves he has made on D, things are looking good. Just sign Mitch and a vet RHD dman that can kill penalties and get into the face of the opposition.

 

[Confucius]

I think his point is the Marner is far better than Trouba.

you think the rangers would trade Trouba for Marner today? I think not.

 

[Marshy]

He just has failed to complete his #1 priority task

It could be done ...only at Paul's valuation - therefore again, thank you KD.

 

[ULF_55]

Point is a fantastic player but he has limited value on the leafs. It is analogous to having a starting goaltender play a backup role to another starting goaltender.
Great but it is suboptimum

Moving from center to wing isn't exactly difficult.

 

[ULF_55]

Jury is out on Nylander. Reset may help him if he comes in with the right mindset. Marner is a fantastic talent but if he refuses to come down to earth and accept that the Leafs cannot afford him at Matthews money, what do you do ??? I have said it before, one of the 3 amigos needs to go.

You see which of them wants to stay and trade the one who is more interested in his own glory, driven by his ego, whether that is Matthews, Marner or Tavares. These are the contracts that restrict the team.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I'll bet on 5yrs x $10.3.

I think the Leafs will do whatever they can to avoid the 5 year term. If that's the case you would have Matthews, Marner and Nylader have their deals all expire at the same time.

I'll bet 3 x 9, or 6 x 10.16

 

[Kiwi]

I'll bet on 5yrs x $10.3.

If Marner gets that AAV with anything less than 6 years attached to it it's a gigantic fail, that makes the Aho contract look like the greatest deal in the history of the world in comparison

 

[Notsince67]

Moving from center to wing isn't exactly difficult.

So you will pay arguably more for a center at even strength with less p/60 than Marner to replace him at wing.
Makes sense to me

 

[horner]

With all of these rival team coaches going gaga over Marner, you would think that at least one of them would be able to convince their GM to OS Marner.

They have there own RFA's to deal with.
All it says is this player is elite.
Contrary to some people's opinions.

 

[Pookie]

For the record, I think Mitch Marner will be present when camp opens.

I tend to think it'll be a 3 year deal.

I tend to think it'll be in the 8.5M range.

10M of it will be paid in the final year as base salary, ensuring the Marner's qualifying offer for the 4th year is 10M. Similar to Timo Meier's deal.

8M of it will be paid as a signing bonus July 1st 2020, to ensure Marner gets paid if their is a lockout. 750K will be base salary.

Leaving 6.75M for this season, I imagine 6M will be paid immediately, and 750K will be the base salary.



Neither side is really happy with the deal, as that's probably 500K-1M more than TOR would like to pay for that term, and the Marner camp was hoping to be in the double digits on a 5 year term.

But it gets a deal done. Marner is in camp, which is what Toronto wants, and for Marner, he gets lockout protection, he gets that 10M qualifying offer, which he can sign, essentially making this a 4 year deal worth 35.5M, or close to 9M per.

That’s some specific thinking and reasoning there.

I’m trying to work out how I can get a round of golf in tomorrow and still finish painting the house.

So far my debate is with logic that says one coat is enough as we’ll repaint again in 10 years when we downsize the house.

 

[ULF_55]

So you will pay arguably more for a center at even strength with less p/60 than Marner to replace him at wing.
Makes sense to me

No I think Point will sign a reasonable contract, large but reasonable. I doubt he would be hung up on how much Matthews makes.

 

[zeke]

If Marner gets that AAV with anything less than 6 years attached to it it's a gigantic fail, that makes the Aho contract look like the greatest deal in the history of the world in comparison

it's a bit of an overpay, as I have Marner probably worth $9.5m.

but he's far better than Aho.

 

[MyBudJT]

For the record, I think Mitch Marner will be present when camp opens.

I tend to think it'll be a 3 year deal.

I tend to think it'll be in the 8.5M range.

10M of it will be paid in the final year as base salary, ensuring the Marner's qualifying offer for the 4th year is 10M. Similar to Timo Meier's deal.

8M of it will be paid as a signing bonus July 1st 2020, to ensure Marner gets paid if their is a lockout. 750K will be base salary.

Leaving 6.75M for this season, I imagine 6M will be paid immediately, and 750K will be the base salary.



Neither side is really happy with the deal, as that's probably 500K-1M more than TOR would like to pay for that term, and the Marner camp was hoping to be in the double digits on a 5 year term.

But it gets a deal done. Marner is in camp, which is what Toronto wants, and for Marner, he gets lockout protection, he gets that 10M qualifying offer, which he can sign, essentially making this a 4 year deal worth 35.5M, or close to 9M per.

Why the change in heart Cor? I proposed the same thing on Wednesday (well, close to it... 3x8.616)

And you responded with the following

Change it to 7.9316M and I’m on board

At least we’re getting closer to an agreement!

 

[Cor]

Why the change in heart Cor? I proposed the same thing on Wednesday (well, close to it... 3x8.616)

And you responded with the following



At least we’re getting closer to an agreement!

Because what I want and when I logically think about things, generally come out to two different things.

 

[hullsy47]

it's a bit of an overpay, as I have Marner probably worth $9.5m.

but he's far better than Aho.

why far better?
we have no idea if marner outperforms aho playing with AHOs linemates

 

[Kiwi]

it's a bit of an overpay, as I have Marner probably worth $9.5m.

but he's far better than Aho.

So you admit it's an overpay but want to do it anyway? That doesn't seem like a good way to do business in a hard cap league

Aho is a PPG center that scored more goals, is the same age, lead his team through 3 rounds of the playoffs with no Tavares tied to his hip

Are you sure he's far better because that seems unlikely on the face of it

 

[Timothy Liljegren]

I think its the terms the Marner's camp is holding back on. 4 - 5 years and cashing in as an UFA. No way Dubas is going to do it.

 

[zeke]

why far better?
we have no idea if marner outperforms aho playing with AHOs linemates

I don't think their offense is close enough for that to matter too much.

Marner has produced primary points at the same rate as Aho has produced total points.

 

[zeke]

So you admit it's an overpay but want to do it anyway? That doesn't seem like a good way to do business in a hard cap league

Aho is a PPG center that scored more goals, is the same age, lead his team through 3 rounds of the playoffs with no Tavares tied to his hip

Are you sure he's far better because that seems unlikely on the face of it

yeah it's a bit of an overpay but our cap situation is so good and marner is such a good fit on and off the ice that he's a guy i wouldn't nickel and dime to harshly.

but Marner has been far more productive than Aho and it's not all that close, really.

ELC

Marner: ES 2.39p/60, 1.94p1/60 --- PP 6.94p/60, 4.63p1/60
Aho: ES 1.99p/60, 1.55p1/60 -------- PP 5.30p/60, 3.56p160
Willy: ES 2.11p/60, 1.56p160 -------- PP 5.93p/60, 4.92p1/60