Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[Kiwi]

At the end of the day, you need to realize what value the player is providing to the team, whether he is a UFA or RFA. Marner will likely live up to a deal even if its an overpay. The only complaint is that he's signing it as an RFA and not a UFA. Really, its about how does their production match what they are doing. Even at a 11m dollars, Marner is likely to play up to that value. It is inconvenient for us that RFA's are now getting paid. But, you can't let an elite talent like Marner walk. You are highly unlikely to win that scenario. Its better to overpay, then shop one of he, Matthews or Nylander in a year, where they likely hold more value.

You cannot build a winning team that way, if you pay more for the same talents you will end up with less talent than your competitors, that is a fundamental fact if your going to overpay players

If there is no comparable for an 11M+ Marner and no offersheet coming in to force us to pay Marner 11M+ why the he'll are we paying him 11M+ exactly? He's an RFA so that looks like straight up capitulation to me when Marner has a lot less leverage than he did before the offersheet threat fizzled out

I say sit his ass and make him take something in line with the rest of the league, then it's up to him, sign an offersheet and we get some resolution and can match if we want or he doesn't play NHL hockey for the foreseeable future

I'm OK either way

 

[93LEAFS]

You cannot build a winning team that way, if you pay more for the same talents you will end up with less talent than your competitors, that is a fundamental fact if your going to overpay players

If there is no comparable for an 11M+ Marner and no offersheet coming in to force us to pay Marner 11M+ why the he'll are we paying him 11M+ exactly? He's an RFA so that looks like straight up capitulation to me when Marner has a lot less leverage than he did before the offersheet threat fizzled out

I say sit his ass and make him take something in line with the rest of the league, then it's up to him, sign an offersheet and we get some resolution and can match if we want or he doesn't play NHL hockey for the foreseeable future

I'm OK either way

If you want to sit him, lets have him come back mid-year and play half-ass like Nylander because he completely missed camp, in a year we are built to go in considering 2 of our top 3 D-men are going to be UFA's next summer. We also can't absorb that type of cap hit. If Marner really wanted to screw us, he'd sign an offer-sheet in November where it will take a massive amount of adjustment to be able to absorb the inflated cap-hit.

And, again, we don't know what is inline with the rest of the league considering almost no other RFA's have signed outside of Aho, and the last deal prior to that was the Matthews deal.

 

[93LEAFS]

would $11M be a slight overpayment though? I think you absolutely need to get 8 years if you're going to that number, and even with that it looks like a new high water mark for RFA wingers. Ultimately I think being willing to play chicken with Marner pays off, I'm fine with slightly overpaying him compared to his peers but I think that extra $1.5M makes a big difference in keeping the compete window open

And I think that keeping guys like Tyson Barrie is important, it's not the 34-35 years where you can probably move on from them if you need to that are important, it's having them from 28-32 or 33 while the team's core is really good that you're after, getting the team firing on all cylinders kind of thing

I'd rather pay Marner 12mx8, then pay Barrie 8x8 given the years we are buying, and the players overall skill levels.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'd rather pay Marner 12mx8, then pay Barrie 8x8 given the years we are buying, and the players overall skill levels.

I'd rather pay Marner $10x8 and Barrie $8x8 though, that's sort of the point, we need some money to supplement the core. It would be one thing if that was lowballing Marner, but that's still a high water mark for RFA wingers at $10Mx8

Barrie is a good bet to age well, dmen typically last longer until the big declines and he skates well. RHD is and will continue to be one of the more rare commodities so I think you can offload him fairly easily when you get to those years that you don't really want at the back end of that contract if the team isn't in a place where it needs him, so you help the team a lot over the next 6 or so years by not over committing to the core players

I think Chicago is a great example of how that can go bad

 

[93LEAFS]

I'd rather pay Marner $10x8 and Barrie $8x8 though, that's sort of the point, we need some money to supplement the core. It would be one thing if that was lowballing Marner, but that's still a high water mark for RFA wingers at $10Mx8

Barrie is a good bet to age well, dmen typically last longer until the big declines and he skates well. RHD is and will continue to be one of the more rare commodities so I think you can offload him fairly easily when you get to those years that you don't really want at the back end of that contract if the team isn't in a place where it needs him, so you help the team a lot over the next 6 or so years by not over committing to the core players

I think Chicago is a great example of how that can go bad

I don't think Barrie is a great bet to age well. He's also a good but not great 5v5 player, and we already have a high-end PP defenceman. At the end of the day, if it comes down to those to options, I'm low-balling Barrie. I'm gambling on the 22-year-old winger to remain elite until 30, over a good defender being good from 29-37. It sucks how RFA has shifted on us. But, you rarely get crushed overpaying your elite players as long as they stay elite, which is likely for a 22 year old with the career Marner has had so far. You get burned by paying average to good players too much with average term. What killed the Blackhawks really isn't the Toews or Keith deal, but Seabrook, Saad and Crawford.

 

[MyBudJT]

Not sure if Trouba has been brought up here yet, but Trouba gets 8, and people here don’t think Marner deserves 11+?

 

[Randy Randerson]

I don't think Barrie is a great bet to age well. He's also a good but not great 5v5 player, and we already have a high-end PP defenceman. At the end of the day, if it comes down to those to options, I'm low-balling Barrie. I'm gambling on the 22-year-old winger to remain elite until 30, over a good defender being good from 29-37. It sucks how RFA has shifted on us. But, you rarely get crushed overpaying your elite players as long as they stay elite, which is likely for a 22 year old with the career Marner has had so far. You get burned by paying average to good players too much with average term. What killed the Blackhawks really isn't the Toews or Keith deal, but Seabrook, Saad and Crawford.

I think you need to use your leverage where you have it, you don't have it with Barrie who's a UFA but you do with Marner, and it's not like anyone is being unreasonable except for his camp.

I do agree that it sucks that we didn't beat this RFA's getting paid trend by like 2 years though, that's not a stroke of good luck. I wish we could just give each of them something like the Ovechkin contract (in principal not specifics) so they would be locked up until near the end of their careers so we could concentrate on being fans of the team rather than mull painfully over who's going to hold out or leave next.

I'll disagree on Chicago though, Toews & Kane eating more than 30% of their cap in the signing year has been a stumbling block with Toews not staying elite. I get that you don't want to be the side in the deal that's losing the best player, but I also think you need to control your cap commitments where you can and use the leverage you have because it goes away too soon. Paying Marner what he wants, rather than what he's worth now will make things difficult over the next 4 years, and at that point you'll likely see big declines from Tavares and the end of the peaks for the young stars, so it's important to be good over the next little while.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think you need to use your leverage where you have it, you don't have it with Barrie who's a UFA but you do with Marner, and it's not like anyone is being unreasonable except for his camp.

I do agree that it sucks that we didn't beat this RFA's getting paid trend by like 2 years though, that's not a stroke of good luck. I wish we could just give each of them something like the Ovechkin contract (in principal not specifics) so they would be locked up until near the end of their careers so we could concentrate on being fans of the team rather than mull painfully over who's going to hold out or leave next.

I'll disagree on Chicago though, Toews & Kane eating more than 30% of their cap in the signing year has been a stumbling block with Toews not staying elite. I get that you don't want to be the side in the deal that's losing the best player, but I also think you need to control your cap commitments where you can and use the leverage you have because it goes away too soon. Paying Marner what he wants, rather than what he's worth now will make things difficult over the next 4 years, and at that point you'll likely see big declines from Tavares and the end of the peaks for the young stars, so it's important to be good over the next little while.

The only reason Marner isn't worth 11, is because he's an RFA. On a per-dollar basis he will live up to that contract.

Kane has outplayed his contract by a larger extent than Toews has under-played his. Chicago is killed by Seabrook and Saad. And, to a larger extent, trading a high-end star winger for more cap certainty in Saad.

 

[Kiwi]

If you want to sit him, lets have him come back mid-year and play half-ass like Nylander because he completely missed camp, in a year we are built to go in considering 2 of our top 3 D-men are going to be UFA's next summer. We also can't absorb that type of cap hit. If Marner really wanted to screw us, he'd sign an offer-sheet in November where it will take a massive amount of adjustment to be able to absorb the inflated cap-hit.

And, again, we don't know what is inline with the rest of the league considering almost no other RFA's have signed outside of Aho, and the last deal prior to that was the Matthews deal.

It's about more than this year, it's about the entirety of his contract which should be at least the next half decade if he's not bridged

If he wants to poison pill us in November that's his decision, I'm perfectly fine taking the compensation and moving on rather than letting a mercenary prick dictate how the teams getting run

If he gets substantially more than Rantanen (500K more with the same term) the front office should be fired, that's completely unacceptable and I'm not comfortable with us being run so poorly

 

[Randy Randerson]

The only reason Marner isn't worth 11, is because he's an RFA. On a per-dollar basis he will live up to that contract.

Kane has outplayed his contract by a larger extent than Toews has under-played his. Chicago is killed by Seabrook and Saad. And, to a larger extent, trading a high-end star winger for more cap certainty in Saad.

I don't see Kane and Toews as a conglomerate though, they're individuals. I agree that Seabrook and Saad are albatrosses, but Toews is too

And yes I agree that Marner as a UFA is worth what Panarin is, but he's not that. You have to get your per-dollar efficiencies from the guys you have leverage over so you can afford the things that put you over the top to put around them

 

[93LEAFS]

It's about more than this year, it's about the entirety of his contract which should be at least the next half decade if he's not bridged

If he wants to poison pill us in November that's his decision, I'm perfectly fine taking the compensation and moving on rather than letting a mercenary prick dictate how the teams getting run

If he gets substantially more than Rantanen (500K more with the same term) the front office should be fired, that's completely unacceptable and I'm not comfortable with us being run so poorly

You'll regret letting a talent like Marner go. And, the team is built to go this year. As stated many times, Marner will live up to pretty much any contract between 11m and 12m barring a dramatic downturn in his performance. You are buying his absolute prime years. The complaint is he wants to be paid more than a typical RFA. But, the recent trend is that elite players who are RFA's aren't paid like RFA's if you look at McDavid, Matthews, Eichel, Draisaitl, Ekblad, etc. If he signed the exact same deal as Panarin, he is likely to provide more value over the life of the contract due to the disparity in age. Now, I don't think you break and hand everything over right now, but you have to be willing to overpay by the time it gets closer to camp. Which is why both sides are going to be in a holding pattern.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't see Kane and Toews as a conglomerate though, they're individuals. I agree that Seabrook and Saad are albatrosses, but Toews is too

And yes I agree that Marner as a UFA is worth what Panarin is, but he's not that. You have to get your per-dollar efficiencies from the guys you have leverage over so you can afford the things that put you over the top to put around them

You have to fight to try to get it down. But, at the end of the day, you have to be willing to accept an overpay and paying him like a UFA, because he will most likely live up to that deal. This is why we are likely in a holding pattern until atleast the start of camp.

The thing is the Toews and Kane contracts balance out. Toews only really had one down year. He was an 80 point player this season. Other years even when he hasn't been great he tilts the ice. Toews is far from an albatross. At most he's overpaid by about 1.5m.

 

[DarkKnight]

Sure it does factor in the natural progress of a young player.

Rank the centers: Bozak, Kadri, Tavares

Do you think Marner scores 94 points last year with Bozak?

He was on pace for 100 the last 50 including playoffs, so yes. Thing people aren’t factoring as well, JT had an off year on the PP compared to other years and they still put up the points.

 

[hullsy47]

Tannenbaum is an empty power. Bell and Rogers control the board seats and part of their ownership agreement is they have to vote in unison on all issues. Tannenbaum has a nice BOG title and a 20% share but has no real power. All power essentially resides with George Cope and Joe Natale.

tannenbaum has is the pulse of the sports teams
he made plenty of friends on both the leafs and raptor camps for years
and yes Shanahan answers his questions

 

[Randy Randerson]

You have to fight to try to get it down. But, at the end of the day, you have to be willing to accept an overpay and paying him like a UFA, because he will most likely live up to that deal. This is why we are likely in a holding pattern until atleast the start of camp.

The thing is the Toews and Kane contracts balance out. Toews only really had one down year. He was an 80 point player this season. Other years even when he hasn't been great he tilts the ice. Toews is far from an albatross. At most he's overpaid by about 1.5m.

I think you have to be willing to play chicken with him, because he's not losing anything yet and his camp will blink when it comes time that he starts losing the dollars that he's maneuvering for. The decision deadline looms a lot earlier for Marner than it did for Nylander because we don't have the space to fit that first year cap inflation for a late signing. By the same token, I don't see any reason that either side would cave until right before the season

I think the Kane & Saad contracts balance out too though, I'd certainly pay $16.5M for that combo. I think it's an artificial lift to lump Kane in with any of them, and I get why we associate him and Toews but I don't think it's really a fair way to look at it. I also don't see how all of Toews' 3 seasons under 60pts aren't considered down years by the benchmark of a $10.5M center. I realize he had a bounceback year and that he looks $1.5M overpaid right now, but I don't like betting on the small sample. I think a big part of that bounceback is Toews being flanked by good ELC/RFA players who are cap efficient as well

and I appreciate what Marner is, I've always said that Matthews/Marner is Rich man's Toews/Poor man's Kane but I think there's a good chance it turns out as Rich man's Toews/just as good Kane. Kane/Toews 2nd contracts were 10.6% of cap, Matthews is about 14.3% (probably expected to be closer to 14% when it was signed) and Marner is looking for the same. We're going to be more cap-strapped than the Blackhawks were when they were at their peak

 

[93LEAFS]

tannenbaum has is the pulse of the sports teams
he made plenty of friends on both the leafs and raptor camps for years
and yes Shanahan answers his questions

I mean, I'm sure Shanahan would answer Tannenbaum's questions, but he gets his orders from Frisdahl, who in turn gets his orders from Cope and Natale. Tannenbaum is an empty power. He wields no real authority on MLSE anymore since Bell and Rogers took over.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think you have to be willing to play chicken with him, because he's not losing anything yet and his camp will blink when it comes time that he starts losing the dollars that he's maneuvering for. The decision deadline looms a lot earlier for Marner than it did for Nylander because we don't have the space to fit that first year cap inflation for a late signing. By the same token, I don't see any reason that either side would cave until right before the season

I think the Kane & Saad contracts balance out too though, I'd certainly pay $16.5M for that combo. I think it's an artificial lift to lump Kane in with any of them, and I get why we associate him and Toews but I don't think it's really a fair way to look at it. I also don't see how all of Toews' 3 seasons under 60pts aren't considered down years by the benchmark of a $10.5M center. I realize he had a bounceback year and that he looks $1.5M overpaid right now, but I don't like betting on the small sample. I think a big part of that bounceback is Toews being flanked by good ELC/RFA players who are cap efficient as well

and I appreciate what Marner is, I've always said that Matthews/Marner is Rich man's Toews/Poor man's Kane but I think there's a good chance it turns out as Rich man's Toews/just as good Kane

Toews still was a high-end defensive center during those seasons and even prior to signing he never was that an elite offensive player. But you pointed to Kane and Toews being the primary reason for Chicago's issues. Which is the primary reason I lumped them togeather. Combined they our play what they are collectively paid. They are getting burned on secondary guys and the fact Crawford makes 6m but can't stay healthy.

 

[supermann_98]

No, the only reason he hasn't signed an offer-sheet is he hasn't found an offer he finds worthy of signing. That doesn't mean teams haven't offered more than the Leafs have.

Maybe, or maybe he doesn’t have the guts to sign an OS and potentially land in a dump like Columbus Ohio away from his family and GF for the next 5+ years wasting away on a rebuilding team.

He bluffed at signing an OS, threatening to jump on the first available plane to listen to offers, whether one never came that he thought was worth signing or whether he chickened out when an acceptable offer came doesn’t matter. Dubas called his bluff and now Marner is betting on a better offer coming from the Leafs which at this point likely isn’t coming because they re-signed all the other RFA’s and extended Kerfoot, leaving Mitch the table scraps, ~9.5m or whatever is left.

I still think they’ll agree on a bridge deal, 3years at around 8.5m AAV, where if he proves his past season wasn’t a fluke he can really cash in on his next deal and make more than his good buddy Auston, which seems to be his true goal instead of .... you know, bringing a cup to Toronto.

By that point (hopefully) the cap has gone up high enough that the team can afford all the greed going around because Reilly is gonna get PAID and has put in the service time where he actually deserves it.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Toews still was a high-end defensive center during those seasons and even prior to signing he never was that an elite offensive player. But you pointed to Kane and Toews being the primary reason for Chicago's issues. Which is the primary reason I lumped them togeather. Combined they our play what they are collectively paid. They are getting burned on secondary guys and the fact Crawford makes 6m but can't stay healthy.

Oh I agree that Toews has always been worth something like Ryan O'Reilly money, but I think that's a lot more than $1.5M overpaid

I more pointed to Kane/Toews because of the parallels for Marner/Matthews, I wouldn't downplay the overpayment of Seabrook as their biggest issue, but I think Toews is the next biggest issue for them. Crawford I agree with but less because of him being overpaid and more because that contract has prevented them from being able to find a better goalie. Saad is a little overpaid, but less so than Toews, still an excellent two way player that produces at a good 2nd line clip. I think they knew they were going to regret the Seabrook and Keith contracts by their design, but they expected to be better than they were for the last 5 years or so and I think that's largely due to mismanaged cap

 

[93LEAFS]

Oh I agree that Toews has always been worth something like Ryan O'Reilly money, but I think that's a lot more than $1.5M overpaid

I more pointed to Kane/Toews because of the parallels for Marner/Matthews, I wouldn't downplay the overpayment of Seabrook as their biggest issue, but I think Toews is the next biggest issue for them. Crawford I agree with but less because of him being overpaid and more because that contract has prevented them from being able to find a better goalie. Saad is a little overpaid, but less so than Toews, still an excellent two way player that produces at a good 2nd line clip. I think they knew they were going to regret the Seabrook and Keith contracts by their design, but they expected to be better than they were for the last 5 years or so and I think that's largely due to mismanaged cap

The Keith deal wasn't a mistake. You re-do that deal 10 times out of 10. His and Hossa's deals at a depressed number was intramental in allowing them to win 3 cups. They netted so much extra value from Keith even if he's overpaid on the back-end of the deal it is pointless. Keith paid market value when they won the cups would be like 9m a year.

 

[Kiwi]

You'll regret letting a talent like Marner go. And, the team is built to go this year. As stated many times, Marner will live up to pretty much any contract between 11m and 12m barring a dramatic downturn in his performance. You are buying his absolute prime years. The complaint is he wants to be paid more than a typical RFA. But, the recent trend is that elite players who are RFA's aren't paid like RFA's if you look at McDavid, Matthews, Eichel, Draisaitl, Ekblad, etc. If he signed the exact same deal as Panarin, he is likely to provide more value over the life of the contract due to the disparity in age. Now, I don't think you break and hand everything over right now, but you have to be willing to overpay by the time it gets closer to camp. Which is why both sides are going to be in a holding pattern.

Again, that's justifying throwing out president and comparables to get the outcome you want, that is not a way to stay competitive in a hard cap league, why is he so special that he deserves more than Ratanen exactly? His charming smile? His awesomeness? Do normal league practices and comparables not apply to him now? Anybody else you dont want those things to matter with or is Marner the only player deserving special treatment?

No you don't, I'm struggling to see why exactly were going to roll over and be his ***** because camps soon, there's this thing called leverage and when his offersheet threat didn't eventuate his went down and the fact that certain segments of this fan base can't wait to give these kids everything they want blows my mind

How about paying him in line with comparables and not folding? Bold strategy I know but seems like a solid idea if you like being competitive long term

Your RFA list was franchise centers and defenseman, we've got those so that makes giving into a RFA winger even worse, which is really saying something

 

[93LEAFS]

Again, that's justifying throwing out president and comparables to get the outcome you want, that is not a way to stay competitive in a hard cap league, why is he so special that he deserves more than Ratanen exactly? His charming smile? His awesomeness? Do normal league practices and comparables not apply to him now? Anybody else you dont want those things to matter with or is Marner the only player deserving special treatment?

No you don't, I'm struggling to see why exactly were going to roll over and be his ***** because camps soon, there's this thing called leverage and when his offersheet threat didn't eventuate his went down and the fact that certain segments of this fan base can't wait to give these kids everything they want blows my mind

How about paying him in line with comparables and not folding? Bold strategy I know but seems like a solid idea if you like being competitive long term

Your RFA list was franchise centers and defenseman, we've got those so that makes giving into a RFA winger even worse, which is really saying something

Kane got the same as his franchise center and has been the best player for 3 cup teams. You can't just dismiss him as being just a winger. He's an elite playmaking winger who drives play. Ovechkin has always made more than Backstrom and Kuznetsov. You can't just dismiss someone because they are a winger.

Its not like we can swap Marner for a lesser paid Rantanen. You have to work with what you have to make a deal eventually work. Being spiteful, and digging in is pointless, if the player can legitimately live up to the dollars he is going to be paid, even if you deem it an over-payment for an RFA.

 

[Scott Stevens]

I don't see Kane and Toews as a conglomerate though, they're individuals. I agree that Seabrook and Saad are albatrosses, but Toews is too

And yes I agree that Marner as a UFA is worth what Panarin is, but he's not that. You have to get your per-dollar efficiencies from the guys you have leverage over so you can afford the things that put you over the top to put around them

Make sure you don’t tell any Hawks fans you think this. You wouldn’t even believe how pissy they get over it.

 

[Randy Randerson]

The Keith deal wasn't a mistake. You re-do that deal 10 times out of 10. His and Hossa's deals at a depressed number was intramental in allowing them to win 3 cups. They netted so much extra value from Keith even if he's overpaid on the back-end of the deal it is pointless. Keith paid market value when they won the cups would be like 9m a year.

I agree, but I think those deals were signed with the knowledge that they may be bad at the end. I believe they thought the team would be better in the 5 years or so prior to last one

I wish we could still circumvent the cap like that

 

[Nylander88]

End of the day this all comes down to money. We need to get Marner for 10 or less. Anything else you move along. Yeah it sucks, yeah you may not win the deal because "you never win the deal when you move a young star". But it happens all the time. It's necessary now more than ever in a cap world. I'm sure Chicago didn't want to have to give up Panarin. Winnepeg didn't want to lose Trouba. Seguin and Hall got moved for other reasons. Colorado didn't want to move Barrie, they didn't want to pay him next year. Cap creates tough situations. Be it you can't fit the player in long term (Marner?) Or you try to balance your team Hall for Larsson (bad deal), or Seth Jones for Ryan Johanson. Tough decisions will need to be made if Marner wants "Matthews Money". And whether we "win or lose" a trade or offer-sheet, it's sometimes a necessary evil of the game