Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[ShaneFalco]

I think Shanny stepped in and put a stop to the media games...... or tried to:

This was back in May of this yr
The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to run into salary cap issues and team president Brendan Shanahan wouldn’t have it any other way.
“When we’re not dealing with cap issues we’re probably rebuilding,” Shanahan said Tuesday during an appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan’s Prime Time Sports.
Among the team’s top off-season priorities, according to general manager Kyle Dubas, is reaching an agreement on a new contract with pending restricted free agent Mitch Marner.
It appears the two sides are still in the early stages of negotiations but Shanahan said he had a positive meeting with Marner’s agent on Tuesday.
“I have a lot of respect for Darren Ferris,” Shanahan explained. “Obviously, our admiration for Mitch and how he plays the game and how he evolved this year and how he developed, rounded out his game and added, not even just his offensive creativity and prowess but penalty killing and just his overall game has improved so much, so it was a positive meeting.
“Beyond that, you’re not going to hear anything from Kyle and I or Mitch’s camp. … There’s no point in playing this out through the press.”

Maple Leafs' Shanahan says team will have salary cap issues - Sportsnet.ca

 

[93LEAFS]

I think Shanny stepped in and put a stop to the media games...... or tried to:

This was back in May of this yr
The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to run into salary cap issues and team president Brendan Shanahan wouldn’t have it any other way.
“When we’re not dealing with cap issues we’re probably rebuilding,” Shanahan said Tuesday during an appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan’s Prime Time Sports.
Among the team’s top off-season priorities, according to general manager Kyle Dubas, is reaching an agreement on a new contract with pending restricted free agent Mitch Marner.
It appears the two sides are still in the early stages of negotiations but Shanahan said he had a positive meeting with Marner’s agent on Tuesday.
“I have a lot of respect for Darren Ferris,” Shanahan explained. “Obviously, our admiration for Mitch and how he plays the game and how he evolved this year and how he developed, rounded out his game and added, not even just his offensive creativity and prowess but penalty killing and just his overall game has improved so much, so it was a positive meeting.
“Beyond that, you’re not going to hear anything from Kyle and I or Mitch’s camp. … There’s no point in playing this out through the press.”

Maple Leafs' Shanahan says team will have salary cap issues - Sportsnet.ca

To be honest, Shanahan is the one who started (or at least heavily inflamed) the media games with his whole statement about Detroit players taking less money in a non-cap era. Completely ignoring what Sergei Fedorov did when he was an RFA. That was the complete opposite of a discount. For those not familiar, Fedorov signed a deal with Carolina that contained a poison pill. It was mid-year and Carolina was unlikely to make the playoffs, so Carolina put an insane amount of bonuses. Carolina made Fedorov's signing bonus 14 million dollar upfront, and 2m dollar is base salary for the next 6 years. The remaining 12m was to be paid in bonuses over the life of the contract, unless, the team Fedorov was on made the conference finals in the first year of the deal, in that case, the 12m had to be fully paid that year. I honestly really wished someone in the media had the balls to ask Shanahan that in response.

 

[ajp4to]

We can only hope the return is very good.

If some team thinks he's worth 11 million a year they'd likely give up quite the haul for him.

Goal is Leafs win Cup.

Only one problem; no team, other than leaf management thinks he is worth 9m, never mind 11m.

 

[Legion34]

There is risk and reward for term for both parties.
Signing a year early for term gives Marner insurance bought by selling term. The team would buy price insurance. The team felt the insurance was too high and now pays the full price. Marner will pay a full price should he get injured in the future.

Signing now buys nothing except a projection based on what one has performed. Marner now sees his price as too high for an 8 year term. Insurance is too expensive. He sees an arbitrage opportunity to maximize his earnings by taking a shorter deal. I don't know why this is difficult to understand.

There is risk and reward for term for both parties.
Signing a year early for term gives Marner insurance bought by selling term. The team would buy price insurance. The team felt the insurance was too high and now pays the full price. Marner will pay a full price should he get injured in the future.

Signing now buys nothing except a projection based on what one has performed. Marner now sees his price as too high for an 8 year term. Insurance is too expensive. He sees an arbitrage opportunity to maximize his earnings by taking a shorter deal. I don't know why this is difficult to understand.

What is difficult to understand is that the current reports are now indicating that he has no interest in a long term deal.

12.5 x 7 is rumoured. But he only wants a 2-3 year deal. If that is true...

Why the switch. What’s the deal.

He wanted to fly around and get offer sheets. But none came.

Do teams not want him at those prices? Or is it a short term only option

If it is just that he wants short term only. Then why the switch?

 

[ajp4to]

Do we still have time to quickly overpay him before another team gives him an offersheet?

The only team willing to overpay Marner is the LEAFS.

 

[hullsy47]

Only one problem; no team, other than leaf management thinks he is worth 9m, never mind 11m.

and Larry tanenbaum lol
who Shanahan answers to
if some team gives up 4 firsts it better be 7 years or more
or 3 of those picks could be flourishing in the NHL when marner bolts

 

[93LEAFS]

and Larry tanenbaum lol
who Shanahan answers to
if some team gives up 4 firsts it better be 7 years or more
or 3 of those picks could be flourishing in the NHL when marner bolts

Tannenbaum is an empty power. Bell and Rogers control the board seats and part of their ownership agreement is they have to vote in unison on all issues. Tannenbaum has a nice BOG title and a 20% share but has no real power. All power essentially resides with George Cope and Joe Natale.

 

[ajp4to]

right but lets say they wanted $14M and dubas offered $10M to them that is lowballing is it not? when it reality the leafs are on the money and Marners camp is delusional. This is hypothetical obviously but without actual numbers who cares if ferris comes out crying about lowball offers?

There isn't a team in the league that is willing to pay Marner more than the leafs have already offered. If there was, an offer sheet would have been submitted. All this Media talk of offer sheet is BS.

 

[93LEAFS]

There isn't a team in the league that is willing to pay Marner more than the leafs have already offered. If there was, an offer sheet would have been submitted. All this Media talk of offer sheet is BS.

A player has to sign an offer-sheet. They aren't just submitted. We have no idea what other teams have offered and where it stands relative to the Leafs.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

To be honest, Shanahan is the one who started (or at least heavily inflamed) the media games with his whole statement about Detroit players taking less money in a non-cap era. Completely ignoring what Sergei Fedorov did when he was an RFA. That was the complete opposite of a discount. For those not familiar, Fedorov signed a deal with Carolina that contained a poison pill. It was mid-year and Carolina was unlikely to make the playoffs, so Carolina put an insane amount of bonuses. Carolina made Fedorov's signing bonus 14 million dollar upfront, and 2m dollar is base salary for the next 6 years. The remaining 12m was to be paid in bonuses over the life of the contract, unless, the team Fedorov was on made the conference finals in the first year of the deal, in that case, the 12m had to be fully paid that year. I honestly really wished someone in the media had the balls to ask Shanahan that in response.

Great question but the team is owned by same people that run the media. Unfortunately money talks. The guy who tries it gets blackballed. So it does not happen. Actually I think this is main reason why Toronto media sucks so bad. They have had to resort to clown games and popularity shows to build a name for themselves. It really is the only way to do it. Sad.

 

[Notsince67]

What is difficult to understand is that the current reports are now indicating that he has no interest in a long term deal.

12.5 x 7 is rumoured. But he only wants a 2-3 year deal. If that is true...

Why the switch. What’s the deal.

He wanted to fly around and get offer sheets. But none came.

Do teams not want him at those prices? Or is it a short term only option

If it is just that he wants short term only. Then why the switch?

The first part is my answer. Market prices can be imperfect. There are whole industries built around arbitrage opportunities.
Given the relatively higher value of short term deals vs long term deals driven in part by the recent leaf signings, it isn't a surprise. It is no difference between choosing a fixed or variable mortgage. If the yield curve is flat or inverted, you go long fixed...if not you go variable

 

[Walshy7]

There isn't a team in the league that is willing to pay Marner more than the leafs have already offered. If there was, an offer sheet would have been submitted. All this Media talk of offer sheet is BS.

well that's not entirely fair. What you should say is no team in the league is willing to pay Marner more than the Leafs AND give up 4 x 1sts or 2x1st, 2nd and 3rd. I think we would quickly match if its not 4 x 1sts though.

So it would be:
No team is willing to pay Marner $10.6 AND lose 4x 1st rnd picks at the same time

 

[Legion34]

The first part is my answer. Market prices can be imperfect. There are whole industries built around arbitrage opportunities.
Given the relatively higher value of short term deals vs long term deals driven in part by the recent leaf signings, it isn't a surprise. It is no difference between choosing a fixed or variable mortgage. If the yield curve is flat or inverted, you go long fixed...if not you go variable

So you think he is turning down 12.5 x 7 because he will make more long term?

Or he wasn’t offered that?

 

[Notsince67]

The only team willing to overpay Marner is the LEAFS.

You throw out that statement without defining what overpay is. What is the threshold....go to it.

 

[54thecup]

There isn't a team in the league that is willing to pay Marner more than the leafs have already offered. If there was, an offer sheet would have been submitted. All this Media talk of offer sheet is BS.

Exactly.

What player in the league would you be willing to give a >11M contract PLUS 4 firsts? Maybe Connor.

Would you be in favor of signing Panarin for 11.6 AND pay 4 1sts?
You'd have to be crazy!

Leafs will match under 10.5. Otherwise we wait.

 

[ajp4to]

A player has to sign an offer-sheet. They aren't just submitted. We have no idea what other teams have offered and where it stands relative to the Leafs.

The reason Marner hasn't signed an offer sheet is that no one has offered him more than the leafs. The only way Marner can get his insane demands is to hold out and do what Nylander did, get the leafs to cave in.

 

[93LEAFS]

The reason Marner hasn't signed an offer sheet is that no one has offered him more than the leafs. The only way Marner can get his insane demands is to hold out and do what Nylander did, get the leafs to cave in.

No, the only reason he hasn't signed an offer-sheet is he hasn't found an offer he finds worthy of signing. That doesn't mean teams haven't offered more than the Leafs have.

 

[93LEAFS]

Great question but the team is owned by same people that run the media. Unfortunately money talks. The guy who tries it gets blackballed. So it does not happen. Actually I think this is main reason why Toronto media sucks so bad. They have had to resort to clown games and popularity shows to build a name for themselves. It really is the only way to do it. Sad.

Someone should ask it at the annual state of the team event if they get the opportunity. Shanahan's statement was ridiculous at the time, and really did no favors for negotiations.

 

[Kiwi]

No, the only reason he hasn't signed an offer-sheet is he hasn't found an offer he finds worthy of signing. That doesn't mean teams haven't offered more than the Leafs have.

Leads me to believe this isn't going to be solved any time soon, this needs to be cleared up at some point and if we can't reach an agreement I hope We're looking at ALL available options

 

[54thecup]

No, the only reason he hasn't signed an offer-sheet is he hasn't found an offer he finds worthy of signing. That doesn't mean teams haven't offered more than the Leafs have.

The main reason Marner won't sign an offer sheet is because it permanently effects his legacy in TO. I believe this is the pressure point
Dubas has until camp. I heard a comment that Darnell Nurse's instructions to his camp last yr during last years rfa negotiations were.. get the best deal you can but I need to be in camp!

There is no doubt in my mind that Mitch wants ad feels some obligation to JT, Matty and company to be ready for what should be an exciting year.

And now Lucic's been traded...... new blood!

 

[93LEAFS]

Leads me to believe this isn't going to be solved any time soon, this needs to be cleared up at some point and if we can't reach an agreement I hope We're looking at ALL available options

I have a very hard time seeing a scenario where we win out giving up a 21-year-old who just put up 94 points and the highest point total in a single season by a Leaf since 1993-94.

 

[ajp4to]

well that's not entirely fair. What you should say is no team in the league is willing to pay Marner more than the Leafs AND give up 4 x 1sts or 2x1st, 2nd and 3rd. I think we would quickly match if its not 4 x 1sts though.

So it would be:
No team is willing to pay Marner $10.6 AND lose 4x 1st rnd picks at the same time

Not sure what you are getting at, which team in the NHL can make an offer to Marner and not give up assets?

 

[ajp4to]

No, the only reason he hasn't signed an offer-sheet is he hasn't found an offer he finds worthy of signing. That doesn't mean teams haven't offered more than the Leafs have.

Yes, he does seem to be a very loyal guy and just wants what's best for the TEAM...

 

[Notsince67]

So you think he is turning down 12.5 x 7 because he will make more long term?

Or he wasn’t offered that?

I think that if he turned it down, it wasn't with the leafs. I don't believe for a second that the leafs offered him that.

 

[Notsince67]

Only one problem; no team, other than leaf management thinks he is worth 9m, never mind 11m.

Source please