Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

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Nylander88

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Marner's a year younger and has notably out produced Nylander at comparable ages. He also had a higher pedigree as a prospect.
Yeah so did Nail Yakupov. Means **** all. Also super curious as to how you compared production at ages when one was playing against men in Sweden and one was playing with his peers in the OHL. 2015 world Juniors Nylander had 10 points in 7 games against his peers. Marner in 2016 (same age as Nylander in 2015) had 6 points in 5 games. Very very curious what these comparisons are based off of outside of draft spot which means....(see Nail Yakupov)
 
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93LEAFS

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Yeah so did Nail Yakupov. Means **** all
No, it means a fair amount. I mean, Marner put up a higher point per game both years despite being a year younger. Excelling at a younger age, generally means you are going to be better. It doesn't have an 100% co-relation, but there is a co-relation.
 

Walshy7

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Not sure what you are getting at, which team in the NHL can make an offer to Marner and not give up assets?

you said "not team is offering more than the leafs", well its possible teams could be thinking they'd offer him more than the leafs but when factoring in the 4 x 1sts that's the part where its too expensive
 

Kiwi

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I have a very hard time seeing a scenario where we win out giving up a 21-year-old who just put up 94 points and the highest point total in a single season by a Leaf since 1993-94.

I don't see how we win with him not playing or being willing to sign something in line with his potential comparables either
 
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93LEAFS

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you said "not team is offering more than the leafs", well its possible teams could be thinking they'd offer him more than the leafs but when factoring in the 4 x 1sts that's the part where its too expensive
He's also ignoring that teams could have offered Marner more and he didn't sign it.
 

Macallan18

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No, the only reason he hasn't signed an offer-sheet is he hasn't found an offer he finds worthy of signing. That doesn't mean teams haven't offered more than the Leafs have.
And maybe Columbus isn't the most attractive place in the world either.
 

Walshy7

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He's also ignoring that teams could have offered Marner more and he didn't sign it.

yeah possibly, no one knows. I think Marner would be terrified of the backlash of signing an offersheet matched or unmatched. So for him to do it itd have to be a stupid overpay where he could say "I would be stupid not to sign this contract"
 

Notsince67

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He's also ignoring that teams could have offered Marner more and he didn't sign it.
Not a lot of credibility for a person who in the last week claimed that the Leafs had no injuries at the end of last year and that Marner has never faced the top players from other teams
 

93LEAFS

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I don't see how we win with him not playing or being willing to sign something in line with his potential comparables either
I'd rather slightly overpay him to his comparables and buy out his prime years, than trade a kid who got 94 points as a 21 year-old. Even at 11m a year, he'll probably provide a better return than that money spent on UFA's due to the years you are buying. Unless you are somehow getting Seth Jones in return (and that isn't happening) or we luck out on an offer sheet and the team completely bottoms out like we did with Kessel, I have a very hard time seeing us come out of any deal ahead. Like, we won't overpay by 1.5 to 2m, so we can pay Tyson Barrie 8m a year when he's 35? You don't give up players like Marner. You almost never ever win those deals.
 
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ajp4to

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And maybe Columbus isn't the most attractive place in the world either.
Yes, because Columbus that wouldn't pay Parinen would give up assets to overpay Marner. Give up 4 frists, destroy their cap structure with their own unsigned RFA Werenski, and await the Jones contract coming up.
 

Kiwi

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I'd rather slightly overpay him to his comparables and buy out his prime years, than trade a kid who got 94 points as a 21 year-old. Even at 11m a year, he'll probably provide a better return than that money spent on UFA's due to the years you are buying. Unless you are somehow getting Seth Jones in return (and that isn't happening) or we luck out on an offer sheet and the team completely bottoms out like we did with Kessel, I have a very hard time seeing us come out of any deal ahead. Like, we won't overpay by 1.5 to 2m, so we can pay Tyson Barrie 8m a year when he's 35? You don't give up players like Marner. You almost never ever win those deals.

You can certainly "win" a Marner trade, you just need to know what your doing with what your getting back, Lindros would be an example of that since he was clearly the best piece traded when he was a kid and the Quebec/Av's did very nicely so this we're giving up the best guy so we lose narrative needs to die

I'm completely against overpaying another player like we did Matthews, it's a hard cap league and paying more for comparable talents around the league isn't going to give us any competitive advantage, in fact it's a disadvantage and I'd rather he sit for the entire season or be traded than be given more money than other comparable players around the league

Things don't get better making the same mistakes continually
 
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93LEAFS

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You can certainly "win" a Marner trade, you just need to know what your doing with what your getting back, Lindros would be an example of that since he was clearly the best piece traded when he was a kid and the Quebec/Av's did very nicely so this we're giving up the best guy so we lose narrative needs to die

I'm completely against overpaying another player like we did Matthews, it's a hard cap league and paying more for comparable talents around the league isn't going to give us any competitive advantage, in fact it's a disadvantage and I'd rather he sit for the entire season or be traded than be given more money than other comparable players around the league

Things don't get better making the same mistakes continually
You heckle heavily for average replacable players. You don't give up an elite talent. The Lindros trade is a one off. You are more likely to end up in a Seguin type situation. No one is giving us a Lindros haul.

Yes, it is a hard cap league, but slightly overpaying a 21-year-old is probably smarter than trading him when said player is elite. The goal then is to make the savings back on other players, similar to how we saved on Kadri and Rielly. Realistically, Marner being paid like he's a UFA and not an RFA doesn't significantly hurt us competitively because we are buying up prime years, compared to the middle-end of prime to the early 30's like a team bought with Panarin. I'd rather overpay elite talents, then end up spending more in the UFA market on generally overpriced goods.
 

ULF_55

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This view doesn’t factor in the natural progress of a young player. It’s a static comparison, as though he’s some vet, as opposed to a blossoming player. Now JT having a 10 year sample set, wherein you could argue he’s on the downside of prime, and yet we saw an big uptick, that’s relevant. Look at most all star players, were their rookie or early second year numbers indicative of future production? NO.

Tavares 5 v 5 numbers with Marner are a total eye popper compared to the rest of his career. Marner scored an impressive 61 points in his last 50 NHL games-a 100 point pace- prior to JT signing, why wouldn’t we expect that to continue or improve? A second year pro peaked?

Sure it does factor in the natural progress of a young player.

Rank the centers: Bozak, Kadri, Tavares

Do you think Marner scores 94 points last year with Bozak?
 

Kiwi

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You heckle heavily for average replacable players. You don't give up an elite talent. The Lindros trade is a one off. You are more likely to end up in a Seguin type situation. No one is giving us a Lindros haul.

Yes, it is a hard cap league, but slightly overpaying a 21-year-old is probably smarter than trading him when said player is elite. The goal then is to make the savings back on other players, similar to how we saved on Kadri and Rielly. Realistically, Marner being paid like he's a UFA and not an RFA doesn't significantly hurt us competitively because we are buying up prime years, compared to the middle-end of prime to the early 30's like a team bought with Panarin. I'd rather overpay elite talents, then end up spending more in the UFA market on generally overpriced goods.

Slightly overpaying? I don't class what's probably going to be millions more a year as slightly overpaying

I see that as vastly overpaying for comparable talents in relation with the rest of the league which doesn't look like a particularly good strategy in a hard cap league if I'm being honest

We've trimmed our roster of the overpaid crap and now we're talking about trading good players on good deals to overpay Marner, no he can get paid something in line with the rest of the league or not play, it's that simple
 
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93LEAFS

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Slightly overpaying? I don't class what's probably going to be millions more a year as slightly overpaying

I see that as vastly overpaying for comparable talents in relation with the rest of the league which doesn't look like a particularly good strategy in a hard cap league if I'm being honest

We've trimmed our roster of the overpaid crap and now we're talking about trading good players on good deals to overpay Marner, no he can get paid something in line with the rest of the league or not play, it's that simple
Well, we don't really know what in-line is, considering we haven't seen what Rantanen, Point and to a lesser extent Laine get. I'd classify overpaying an elite player by the extent of a decent bottom-sixer which is 1.5-2m not that dramatically different. You can't let elite young talent go. You figure out where to trim elsewhere. You trade a Kapanen, Johnson or Kerfoot and see what you have with a Bracco. You rarely lose out overpaying elite young players who are RFA. The deals that historically burn you are buying up 28-35 from players who are fringe first liners to middle-sixers. If we gave Marner the exact same deal as Tavares, I would say the Tavares deal is more likely to haunt us due to the ages we are buying up. It is not ideal the RFA market has shifted on us, but we can't lose sight of the need to retain elite talent. The hope is, that as elite young players start to get paid, it then drives down the UFA prices into more realistic prices. We will see if the whole league starts to shift like this. Marner, Provorov, Werenski, Boeser, Point, Rantanen and next year Barzal and Hischier will be very telling in that regard.
 

93LEAFS

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Don't need to, where are those offer sheets? The leafs are already offering Marner more than any other team is willing to PAY; also, the leafs are the only team willing to overpay Marner.
He can get an offer-sheet and not sign it. They aren't just submitted and become public knowledge.
 

Kiwi

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Well, we don't really know what in-line is, considering we haven't seen what Rantanen, Point and to a lesser extent Laine get. I'd classify overpaying an elite player by the extent of a decent bottom-sixer which is 1.5-2m not that dramatically different. You can't let elite young talent go. You figure out where to trim elsewhere. You trade a Kapanen, Johnson or Kerfoot and see what you have with a Bracco. You rarely lose out overpaying elite young players who are RFA. The deals that historically burn you are buying up 28-35 from players who are fringe first liners to middle-sixers. If we gave Marner the exact same deal as Tavares, I would say the Tavares deal is more likely to haunt us due to the ages we are buying up. It is not ideal the RFA market has shifted on us, but we can't lose sight of the need to retain elite talent. The hope is, that as elite young players start to get paid, it then drives down the UFA prices into more realistic prices. We will see if the whole league starts to shift like this. Marner, Provorov, Werenski, Boeser, Point, Rantanen and next year Barzal and Hischier will be very telling in that regard.

You can justify practically anything with this line of thinking

He's young so who cares about boring things like comparables or the rest of the league, let's just give that young man his money

Jesus if were taking it to it's natural conclusion why not give him league max for 1 year? Since his awesomness knows no earthly bounds where he should he paid in line with the rest of the league

If his deal is substantially worse than Rantanens the front office should all be fired, him getting substantially more than his league wide comparables is completely unacceptable in a hard cap league and if he needs to be sat long term to be made aware of these facts he absolutely should

He's an RFA, not a UFA and he should be treated as such
 

93LEAFS

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You can justify practically anything with this line of thinking

He's young so who cares about boring things like comparables or the rest of the league, let's just give that young man his money

Jesus if were taking it to it's natural conclusion why not give him league max for 1 year? Since his awesomness knows no earthly bounds where he should he paid in line with the rest of the league

If his deal is substantially worse than Rantanens the front office should all be fired, him getting substantially more than his league wide comparables is completely unacceptable in a hard cap league and if he needs to be sat long term to be made aware of these facts he absolutely should

He's an RFA, not a UFA and he should be treated as such
At the end of the day, you need to realize what value the player is providing to the team, whether he is a UFA or RFA. Marner will likely live up to a deal even if its an overpay. The only complaint is that he's signing it as an RFA and not a UFA. Really, its about how does their production match what they are doing. Even at a 11m dollars, Marner is likely to play up to that value. It is inconvenient for us that RFA's are now getting paid. But, you can't let an elite talent like Marner walk. You are highly unlikely to win that scenario. Its better to overpay, then shop one of he, Matthews or Nylander in a year, where they likely hold more value.
 

93LEAFS

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Yes you got me, Marner is such a loyal guy, he wouldn't sign for more money somewhere else.
Are you actually this dense? A team could offer more, and he could think he could still get more from the Leafs later on or from another team later on. You seem to just ignore this fact. The fact he hasn't signed an offer-sheet just shows he and his representation haven't found a deal that is acceptable, even if another team is offering more.
 
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Randy Randerson

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I'd rather slightly overpay him to his comparables and buy out his prime years, than trade a kid who got 94 points as a 21 year-old. Even at 11m a year, he'll probably provide a better return than that money spent on UFA's due to the years you are buying. Unless you are somehow getting Seth Jones in return (and that isn't happening) or we luck out on an offer sheet and the team completely bottoms out like we did with Kessel, I have a very hard time seeing us come out of any deal ahead. Like, we won't overpay by 1.5 to 2m, so we can pay Tyson Barrie 8m a year when he's 35? You don't give up players like Marner. You almost never ever win those deals.
would $11M be a slight overpayment though? I think you absolutely need to get 8 years if you're going to that number, and even with that it looks like a new high water mark for RFA wingers. Ultimately I think being willing to play chicken with Marner pays off, I'm fine with slightly overpaying him compared to his peers but I think that extra $1.5M makes a big difference in keeping the compete window open

And I think that keeping guys like Tyson Barrie is important, it's not the 34-35 years where you can probably move on from them if you need to that are important, it's having them from 28-32 or 33 while the team's core is really good that you're after, getting the team firing on all cylinders kind of thing
 
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