Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[SeaOfBlue]

Someone on another board posted:

Toronto isn't losing because of offence they are losing because of defence and you are better off spending that $9-11.5m on defence.
Marner trade would net us a top4 RHD + 3C + 1st (depending on the pieces obviously but even if this is too low I'm going to use it as an example), imagine how balanced the lineup would be with those pieces and that isn't even taking into account the cap flexibility so if Barrie does play well Toronto will have the cap room to resign

Makes sense to me, especially since those guys would probably have to be younger NHLers.

 

[93LEAFS]

of course there is blame to go round. But when you start seeing and reading how marner thinks he is Matthews level the blame can slightly shift back onto marners camp. He is not worth elite goal scoring 1C money, if he scored more goals in his 94 points like say ~40 then maybe you could say:
he drives the play
scores the goals and points
he is worth Matthews money.

Please don't reply with "bUt Da tAp Ins Jt GoT" that's garbage, they both helped each other JT scored more goals than a usual season but points didn't raise much at all, because Marner is the best winger he has ever played with he didn't have to pretty much score the goals and set up the goals anymore.

I see this argument about Tavares point totals not dramatically rising, but I can't help but realize this argument is terribly flawed or people don't understand how he was used in Long Island. Tavares had his best 5v5 season of his career. He set new p/60 at 5v5 highs in both goals, primary points and points. In p/60 by a fairly large number. The reason Tavares overall point totals didn't improve dramatically has little to do with Mitch. The first one being, in Long Island the PP ran through him, here he got significantly fewer touches on the PP due to playing closer to the net and not running it from the sidewall like Marner. The only time he played the sidewall was when Matthews got injured. The 2nd major factor is that Tavares played the fewest PP minutes of his career due to Babcock's PP usage patterns outside of the shortened lockout season in 2012-13. At 5v5, Tavares had actually one of the best assist rates of his career. But, I guess people only look at the overall box score without acknowledging these factors.

Tavares beat his previous high totals at 5v5 by 12 points, 11 goals, and 10 primary points. Which is around a 20% increase or higher on most things.

 

[Walshy7]

At this point, I'm at least considering it if I'm Dubas.

Like if someone calls up asking for him, I'm listening to whatever they have to offer. And if I get a top flight young RD for him, then I'm seriously considering moving him.

I just wonder what Marner would say to Ferris if it got to that point...

same goes for every single player on the leafs. Of course you listen on marner, hed bring back that legit Rielly partner we have been dreaming of.

 

[Pookie]

Makes sense to me, especially since those guys would probably have to be younger NHLers.

Not losing because of offence now but trade that star offence away and it becomes an issue.

That said, listen to everything. Everything is on the table.

Except sitting all year

 

[ULF_55]

Be careful what you wish for. Marner could easily be on the way out.

We can only hope the return is very good.

If some team thinks he's worth 11 million a year they'd likely give up quite the haul for him.

Goal is Leafs win Cup.

 

[ULF_55]

I don’t know why people are arguing that he shouldn’t have been asked questions about his contract. It would derelict of the media not to ask, equally so, Marner should expect questions about his contract.
His answers were exactly what I expected.

Pretty obvious he should be asked about his Leafs scenario ... the Leafs are why he's there in the first place. Marner the civilian doesn't have that fund raiser.

Yes, I didn't expect him to say anything either.

 

[Mess]

We can only hope the return is very good.

If some team thinks he's worth 11 million a year they'd likely give up quite the haul for him.

Go is Leafs win Cup.

The return in trade trying to be less than 4 X 1sts or they would simply OS him at $11 mil.

I agree any team interesting in acquiring Marner and willing to pay him $11 mil per would first exhausts all trade options with the Leafs and if the teams couldn't come to an successful deal then they would consider the OS offer last.

This is actually what might be happening between Columbus rumoured interest in Marner (considering OS) and the Leafs right now. Serious trade talks are underway.

 

[ULF_55]

It is really the only way to get max value.

When I buy a new car I negotiate with one foot out the door. I make it clear that I have a price from someone else, I have already test driven it (i never buy where I test drove), and you have 30 minutes to give me your best price. If I like it I am buying at that price, if not I am walking out not to return. It usually works if they take you seriously. If they don't you walk out and don't go back. One time I did that and his price was crap, I said thank you and started walking out. He goes what is your other price we will beat it. I politely told him that we laid the ground rules - your best price- obviously you didn't give it to me as now you are ready to deal, too bad I am buying elsewhere.

I have the luxury of leaving that dealership at any time, these RFAs only leverage other than an offersheet is withhold services, not buying a car in our analogy above. If you don't negotiate like you want to leave the team will try to take advantage of it. I would submit Matthews negotiated with one foot out the door on its way to arizona or they never would have caved as bad as they did.

Of course the big difference is the car dealership can't restrict you from buying elsewhere.

Marner can withhold services, but that's about the extent of his negotiation power.

Just like the 'Canes, Leafs would accept any reasonable offersheet, and an unreasonable offersheet gives the Leafs 4 1st. round picks, and cap space.

 

[ULF_55]

I see this argument about Tavares point totals not dramatically rising, but I can't help but realize this argument is terribly flawed or people don't understand how he was used in Long Island. Tavares had his best 5v5 season of his career. He set new p/60 at 5v5 highs in both goals, primary points and points. In p/60 by a fairly large number. The reason Tavares overall point totals didn't improve dramatically has little to do with Mitch. The first one being, in Long Island the PP ran through him, here he got significantly fewer touches on the PP due to playing closer to the net and not running it from the sidewall like Marner. The only time he played the sidewall was when Matthews got injured. The 2nd major factor is that Tavares played the fewest PP minutes of his career due to Babcock's PP usage patterns outside of the shortened lockout season in 2012-13. At 5v5, Tavares had actually one of the best assist rates of his career. But, I guess people only look at the overall box score without acknowledging these factors.

Tavares beat his previous high totals at 5v5 by 12 points, 11 goals, and 10 primary points. Which is around a 20% increase or higher on most things.

He wasn't the only player the other team had to focus on.

Was there ever another line on the Islanders that had a Matthews calibre player on it?

 

[57 Years No Cup]

"Show me quotes!"
Quotes given
"Show me quotes!"

You have posturing agent- speak and a goofy father. You have nothing from Mitch Marner.

 

[93LEAFS]

He wasn't the only player the other team had to focus on.

Was there ever another line on the Islanders that had a Matthews calibre player on it?

No. But, his usage really didn't change, and he also put up big numbers during the stretch Matthews was injured. He still faced among the toughest usage of his career by QOC measures. Marner was huge in JT having the best 5v5 season of his career by a significant margin. The reason he didn't shatter his previous career highs in total points is almost exclusively down to the two major factors I pointed to. Role on the PP and ice-time given on the PP. I don't know how anyone can look at what JT did at ES and 5V5 this year, and not think Marner was the primary reason for it.

 

[ULF_55]

No. But, his usage really didn't change, and he also put up big numbers during the stretch Matthews was injured. He still faced among the toughest usage of his career by QOC measures. Marner was huge in JT having the best 5v5 season of his career by a significant margin. The reason he didn't shatter his previous career highs in total points is almost exclusively down to the two major factors I pointed to. Role on the PP and ice-time given on the PP. I don't know how anyone can look at what JT did at ES and 5V5 this year, and not think Marner was the primary reason for it.

I'm positive Marner had an impact, it just wasn't the same impact as Tavares had on Marner.

Marner played with:

van Riemsdyk - Bozak 2 vets (van Riemsdyk 30 goal scorer before Marner)
Marleua - Kadri 2 vets (Kadri 30 goal scorer before Marner)
Hyman - Tavares 1 vet and one 26 year old in his 4th. pro season. (Tavares 38 goal score before Marner)

He's earned those minutes, but they haven't been with rookies, 1st. and 2nd. year forwards.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm positive Marner had an impact, it just wasn't the same impact as Tavares had on Marner.

I'd say its hard to tell. One, Marner tore it up on the back half of last year producing at a ridiculous rate when he played with Kadri. Post-all-star game last season he played at a 79 point pace. Add in the Playoffs to those 33 games he played at an 86 point pace. Unlike Tavares, Marner is also a still developing player. Players tend to improve between their 20 and 21-year-old season. Obviously, its a mutually beneficial pairing. But, people trying to downplay Marner's season by implying it was primarily caused by JT are really ignoring basic facts. JT's production at 5v5 dramatically improved, and this is not a player who is expected to make a significant improvement being that he is in the middle of his prime. He improved his career highs in goals, primary points, and total points at 5v5 by 20%. People just overlook that and look at total points, ignoring that his PP usage and role were changed, which is the primary cause of his not completely blowing by his previous career-high in point totals.

 

[CDN24]

Of course the big difference is the car dealership can't restrict you from buying elsewhere.

Marner can withhold services, but that's about the extent of his negotiation power.

Just like the 'Canes, Leafs would accept any reasonable offersheet, and an unreasonable offersheet gives the Leafs 4 1st. round picks, and cap space.

Exactly, No world Hockey association to blow him out of the water with a $20m offer.

But if a player wants to maximize his value he has to make the team believe that he will do anything including sit out to get what he wants. If he lets it be known that he wants to be Leaf and nothing but he will get the most team friendly contract in history.

Now lots of guys sign team friendly deals for a variety of reasons, be it family reasons, tax reasons, chance to win etc. Sometimes an entire team will be onboard with the team friendly approach if they think they are close to winning. It is hard to sell a star on team friendly when all the other stars are not on team friendly deals though. In the cap era if you don't have anyone on team friendly deals you are also probably not that close to winning as the cap ensures your roster will have holes if everyone is FMV or above.

I personnally don't think a team can win with half of its Cap spent on 4F. Then it would seem the best option is to move him, except I think that to is a mistake as he may be the most important of the 4 for long term success.

Not sure how much Dubas is being paid but if he successfully gets through this summer with his roster intact he has earned every penny. He's spent some futures and will probably be hard up against it again next year but he has improved the D without using much cap space. Eventually I think 1 of the 4 has to go but Marner would be a mistake.

 

[Legion34]

You have posturing agent- speak and a goofy father. You have nothing from Mitch Marner.

Marner pays his agent. His agent has chosen to speak to media and provide the message he has.

With direct quotes.

Marner has not fired or publicly reprimanded his employee. Therefore people are assuming he is approving of the strategy

If an employee of a restaurant were to openly make a negative statement/behaviour, the restaurant either fires or apologizes to minimize the blowback

This is pretty standard

 

[ULF_55]

Exactly, No world Hockey association to blow him out of the water with a $20m offer.

But if a player wants to maximize his value he has to make the team believe that he will do anything including sit out to get what he wants. If he lets it be known that he wants to be Leaf and nothing but he will get the most team friendly contract in history.

Now lots of guys sign team friendly deals for a variety of reasons, be it family reasons, tax reasons, chance to win etc. Sometimes an entire team will be onboard with the team friendly approach if they think they are close to winning. It is hard to sell a star on team friendly when all the other stars are not on team friendly deals though. In the cap era if you don't have anyone on team friendly deals you are also probably not that close to winning as the cap ensures your roster will have holes if everyone is FMV or above.

I personnally don't think a team can win with half of its Cap spent on 4F. Then it would seem the best option is to move him, except I think that to is a mistake as he may be the most important of the 4 for long term success.

Not sure how much Dubas is being paid but if he successfully gets through this summer with his roster intact he has earned every penny. He's spent some futures and will probably be hard up against it again next year but he has improved the D without using much cap space. Eventually I think 1 of the 4 has to go but Marner would be a mistake.

Has it come to the point that Marner believes $10 million a season is beneath him? That would be a team friendly deal?

A mistake to deal one of their best players? Perhaps, but how many Cups did Gretzky get after leaving the Oilers. How many did the Oilers win? 0 for Gretz and 1 for Oilers. Messier won 2 without Gretzky. But Gretzky was the best player.

It is always about team.

IMO Matthews could be the most important piece, but maybe he isn't. Maybe it is Marner ... maybe we don't know as none of them have really put the team on its back and carried it in big games.

 

[Sypher04]

Marner was willing to sign last summer for 8 years for a number between 8 and 9. Leafs balked expecting to get the price down or not as rapid improvement, and it will cost them either years or term. And to be honest, 8x8 would have been fair for a 20-year-old coming off a 69 point season considering they gave Nylander 7x6.

There isn't a single reputable source that ever corroborated that Kypreos story. Maybe it's true. Maybe it isn't. We simply don't know.

What we do know is however, as stated by many, repeatedly, was Marner's intent to go last.

Now argument could certainly be made we should have also signed Matthews earlier than we did, and I'd generally agree, but the point remains, best conclusion we can draw based on credible reporting is that without Matthews' figure done, we weren't getting a resolution to Marner.

 

[93LEAFS]

There isn't a single reputable source that ever corroborated that Kypreos story. Maybe it's true. Maybe it isn't. We simply don't know.

What we do know is however, as stated by many, repeatedly, was Marner's intent to go last.

Now argument could certainly be made we should have also signed Matthews earlier than we did, and I'd generally agree, but the point remains, best conclusion we can draw based on credible reporting is that without Matthews' figure done, we were trying a resolution to Marner.

I've heard from people connected to Ferris who have given me reliable info before which I've broken ahead of the news cycle. I'll choose to believe them. Whether you want to believe me is up to you.

 

[supermann_98]

About the interview, clearly Marner was nervous and tense.
His reaction was what he was trained to do for this interview, which was to say absolutely nothing but my agent is handling it.
I'm not at all concerned that there were no comments about loving Toronto, that was not part of the script he was provided.
Having said that, I no longer feel any great affection for individual leafs for the most part, like Matthews, Nylander or Marner. I don't think they give a rats a@@ about the team. It does lessen feelings for the Leafs.

Wendel on the other hand...........

Agreed on all parts. Wendel (and Dougie) had more heart than all three of these kids combined

 

[Sypher04]

I've heard from people connected to Ferris who have given me reliable info before which I've broken ahead of the news cycle. I'll choose to believe them. Whether you want to believe me is up to you.

I'm personally getting tired of every third person I discuss with in this thread claiming inside info or a personal connection to the Marner family or his agent

"I've heard from people connected to Ferris who have given me reliable info before" is just a fun way of saying I like making up internet rumours

 

[CDN24]

Has it come to the point that Marner believes $10 million a season is beneath him? That would be a team friendly deal?

A mistake to deal one of their best players? Perhaps, but how many Cups did Gretzky get after leaving the Oilers. How many did the Oilers win? 0 for Gretz and 1 for Oilers. Messier won 2 without Gretzky. But Gretzky was the best player.

It is always about team.

IMO Matthews could be the most important piece, but maybe he isn't. Maybe it is Marner ... maybe we don't know as none of them have really put the team on its back and carried it in big games.

I agree on the gretz vs messier, thing is I think Marner may be the Messier in this analagy. Matthews is the most talented but Marner may well be the more important player. I would have preferred moving Nylander last year when he held out and put the money in the D. To continue with the Oilers analagy Leafs have their Coffey but may need a Randy Gregg or 2.

 

[Mess]

There isn't a single reputable source that ever corroborated that Kypreos story. Maybe it's true. Maybe it isn't. We simply don't know.

What we do know is however, as stated by many, repeatedly, was Marner's intent to go last.

Now argument could certainly be made we should have also signed Matthews earlier than we did, and I'd generally agree, but the point remains, best conclusion we can draw based on credible reporting is that without Matthews' figure done, we weren't getting a resolution to Marner.

Inmates running the Asylum ??

Why is it Marner telling the GM what to do, by going last?

The GM is the one offering the contracts and in control, as he is managing the team not the inmates.

So you're saying Marner was smart enough to convince Dubas to get Matthews signed first to a big cap busting contract, so that he (Marner) could go afterwards, and now use that, as his 1-1 comparable next deal against Dubas in contract talks?

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm personally getting tired of every third person I discuss with in this thread claiming inside info or a personal connection to the Marner or agent

"I've heard from people connected to Ferris who have given me reliable info before" is just a fun way of saying I like making up internet rumours

I don't make things up. Believe me or don't. But, I've had many things here before the board and posted them. Such as saying Hunter would quit if they hired Dubas in November of 2017 (which a bunch of people didn't believe), saying which OHL player got Niagara fined and forfeiture of draft picks for, the Sabres hiring Jankowski as their scouting director, and Ryan Merkley being a complete headcase.

 

[Gabriel426]

The return in trade trying to be less than 4 X 1sts or they would simply OS him at $11 mil.

I agree any team interesting in acquiring Marner and willing to pay him $11 mil per would first exhausts all trade options with the Leafs and if the teams couldn't come to an successful deal then they would consider the OS offer last.

This is actually what might be happening between Columbus rumoured interest in Marner (considering OS) and the Leafs right now. Serious trade talks are underway.

Don’t get my hopes up about Seth Jones coming to play for the Leafs

 

[Legion34]

I've heard from people connected to Ferris who have given me reliable info before which I've broken ahead of the news cycle. I'll choose to believe them. Whether you want to believe me is up to you.

And when did you hear it? 8 months after the fact?