Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[ToneDog]

I hope Dubas puts the hammer down on Marner. Sign within the next two weeks or you’re traded. If we have to trade him we’re going to get quite the haul and ideally a very talented defenseman.

I don’t care anymore. If little Marner doesn’t want to play in front of his friends and family anymore, ship him to Columbus Ohio or Long Island.

I doubt it because of what it will take to sign him. Some teams will balk and the teams that do not will offer less because they will have to pay him.

 

[socko]

I wouldn't doubt the NHL head office sent an email out prior to this summers free agency to all teams warning them to not do anything dumb with the offer sheets

That would definitely be collusion. I'm giving Robert Mueller a heads up.

 

[Mess]

So the Leafs pay a luxury Leaf tax for the privilege of having said player?

It may not be fair and it may not be right, but unfortunately its a reality.

Marner wants the Matthews similar deal. There is no reasonable argument to be made to compare himself directly to a #1 overall pick and 2-way big franchise centre and elite goal scorer to boot as his best NHL comparable in contract demands. Different style, different size, different position, different goal scoring ability etc etc. . As player comparables they couldn't be more different in almost every aspect but 1, they both play for the Toronto Maple Leafs, so its their environment and their statistical success within it that drives contract prices.

The only way you get there is to use his points produced and the market in which he produced them, to others in his own market, where the rules for a star player in Toronto has its own set of market rules.

 

[Legendary]

Marner for Pesce and Faulk would be ok with me. Build a solid deep D, roll with two elite centers and hope to god Nylander bounces back to become the Marner replacement.

Rielly, Pesce, Faulk, Barrie, Dermott, lilly/sandin

Looks pretty good to me

 

[Confucius]

Or if the GM knew what he was doing, Marner needed to be signed first before Matthews, to remove that Leafs internal cap ceiling from Marner's leverage.

Without it, Marner would be working from the Nylander up contract which is $7.5 mil X 6 (without the delayed signing). Comparibles: Willy (62 +62 points last 2 seasons) Marner (62 + 69 points last 2 seasons).

If Dubas says we'll give you +$2 mil more than Willy, with about similar comparable numbers (before the season) but on a 8 year term. You get Marner for $9.5 mil X 8 last summer and problem solved.

Timing in everything!

Now Marner 94 points - Matthews 73 points = +21 points differential last year.

Only an inexperienced GM would sign his most expensive player contract 1st and then attempt to tell his teams leading scorer that he is worth only $9.5 mil or over $2 mil less per season, despite recording >20 points more. Even if you factor in Matthews injury his 1.07 PPG x 82 games = 88 points on full season, Marner still has a solid case for equal pay for equal play.

I guess you were encouraging Dubas to give marner 9.5 last summer? If timing is everything, what's hindsight?

 

[MLSE]

Mathews not greedy ?

Greedy players don't win cup.
Mathews Marner Nylander all greed, haven't done **** yet .
Can't even win a Rd verses Boston.
I wish we could redo this rebuild get players that actually have the heart and guts to play for each other not themselves .
Our core will not get it done.

I think Matthews is greedy, I just know Nylanders and Marners camps are.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It has not been debunked. It's true. Nylander carried a $10,277,778 cap hit this past season because of his holdout.

No he didn’t.

His cap hit was 10.27 over 4 months. It prorates to 6.96 over a full season.

Capfriendly has sent tweets clarifying this. You can also look at the leafs 2018-19 cap breakdown by player. Nylander only counted 6.96 against the cap last year.

Note: I don’t think this is off topic. It’s specifically in reference to what happens if Marner doesn’t sign by oct 2nd.

 

[RoadWarrior]

$10.5 mil X 5 years would be 2 X 1sts + 2nd + 3rd.

Leafs are not willing to give him that but an OS at those levels would.

$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

My understanding is that the leafs already offered something close to $10.5M AAV over 8 years and it was rejected.

Any offer sheet on Marner would be closer to $12M AAV or the leafs are guaranteed to match. That equals 4 first round picks. No team will do that on a shorter term contract.

Montreal did it because it was a lower cap hit on Aho and quite frankly his ask was lower.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It may not be fair and it may not be right, but unfortunately its a reality.

Marner wants the Matthews similar deal. There is no reasonable argument to be made to compare himself directly to a #1 overall pick and 2-way big franchise centre and elite goal scorer to boot as his best NHL comparable in contract demands. Different style, different size, different position, different goal scoring ability etc etc. . As player comparables they couldn't be more different in almost every aspect but 1, they both play for the Toronto Maple Leafs, so its their environment and their statistical success within it that drives contract prices.

The only way you get there is to use his points produced and the market in which he produced them, to others in his own market, where the rules for a star player in Toronto has its own set of market rules.

Do you consider the possibility that the rookie gm was at least partially at fault?

 

[Future]

I doubt it because of what it will take to sign him. Some teams will balk and the teams that do not will offer less because they will have to pay him.

A 22 year old 94 point forward is going to get quite the haul no matter what.

 

[Big Shot]

Wouldn't bother me if they got rid of all Nylander, Matthews AND Marner so I'd have some guys to cheer for that aren't greedy, soft and entitled. Did they get here like that our did we make them into that? Time to send a message for the future.

Yeah sure, but I wouldn’t get rid of MATTHEW’s, but I would definitely increase his ice time. He’s just not playing enough for my liking. Double shift him and you’ll see a difference.

Cheers!

 

[Marshy]

No he didn’t.

His cap hit was 10.27 over 4 months. It prorates to 6.96 over a full season.

Capfriendly has sent tweets clarifying this. You can also look at the leafs 2018-19 cap breakdown by player. Nylander only counted 6.96 against the cap last year.

Note: I don’t think this is off topic. It’s specifically in reference to what happens if Marner doesn’t sign by oct 2nd.

 

[socko]

No he didn’t.

His cap hit was 10.27 over 4 months. It prorates to 6.96 over a full season.

Capfriendly has sent tweets clarifying this. You can also look at the leafs 2018-19 cap breakdown by player. Nylander only counted 6.96 against the cap last year.

Note: I don’t think this is off topic. It’s specifically in reference to what happens if Marner doesn’t sign by oct 2nd.

Nov 29, 2018
McKenzie: It’s not impossible for the Toronto Maple Leafs to trade William Nylander, but as time has marched on, the market for Nylander and a trade with the Leafs has been shrinking for the reason we have been talking about for weeks now. When a player doesn’t sign at the beginning of the season and he signs partway through the year, it affects the way the cap hit is allocated. So if Nylander gets a contract in the high-sixes from the Leafs with an AAV (average annual value) of $6.8 or $6.9 million. The first-year cap hit is going to be up around $9.5 million. The Leafs love that because a high cap hit doesn’t hurt them and then you get lower cap hits in the remaining years. For teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild that have interest in Nylander, they can’t afford a $9.5 million cap hit this year. It has shrunk the market.

https://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-how-will-the-nylander-saga-end-1.1218355

 

[Throw More Waffles]

View attachment 243401

Like I said, they clarified in future tweets how that works.
Look at the following tweet from them. Leafs cap hit was $67 million total. After Nylander signed, it went up to $74 million (not 77 million).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Nov 29, 2018
McKenzie: It’s not impossible for the Toronto Maple Leafs to trade William Nylander, but as time has marched on, the market for Nylander and a trade with the Leafs has been shrinking for the reason we have been talking about for weeks now. When a player doesn’t sign at the beginning of the season and he signs partway through the year, it affects the way the cap hit is allocated. So if Nylander gets a contract in the high-sixes from the Leafs with an AAV (average annual value) of $6.8 or $6.9 million. The first-year cap hit is going to be up around $9.5 million. The Leafs love that because a high cap hit doesn’t hurt them and then you get lower cap hits in the remaining years. For teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild that have interest in Nylander, they can’t afford a $9.5 million cap hit this year. It has shrunk the market.

https://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-how-will-the-nylander-saga-end-1.1218355

Yeah, cap friendly made it confusing, and a lot of misinformation was spread.

Look at my post above, where capfriendly themselves clarify.

 

[Marshy]

Cap hit was 10..277 last year. The 6.96 is the money he was paid. Honestly how do people not know this?

 

[Mess]

Do you consider the possibility that the rookie gm was at least partially at fault?

This was post from last summer prior to any on the 3 Amigo's signing.

Inexperience at the GM level is going to be exploited by seasoned player agents.

As I have been saying from the start prior to all 3 signings that the Tavares UFA contract will act as a magnet and draw all Leafs RFA contracts upwards, where AM will claim he is worth more than JT and his salary/AAV will be higher, and then MM will use Matthews as his reference point, and decide how much less than Auston the Marner camp is willing to take (as a hometown discount). Leafs internal pay scale far more significant than any of the other 30 NHL team direct player comparables.

My last summer predictions were;

Matthews @ $12 mil X 8 years
Tavares @ $11 mil X 7 years
Marner @ 10 mil X 8 years
Nylander @ $7.5 mil X 8 years.

PS. The outcome that has shocked me most is not the $$$ but rather Dubas getting only 5-6 years and not the full 8 years at those levels. The fact what other teams are doing with their RFA and league wide comparables might as well be tossed out the window, comes as no surprise to me at all.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Cap hit was 10..277 last year. The 6.96 is the money he was paid. Honestly how do people not know this?

Read that tweet over again. It clearly states the leafs total cap hit last year was $67 pre Nylander, and $74 million after Nylander.

74-67
Does that equal 10 or 7?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

This was post from last summer prior to any on the 3 Amigo's signing.

Oh, well kudos.

In other words, dubas made his bed with a nylander and Matthews, and now has to sleep in it with Marner.

 

[socko]

Yeah, cap friendly made it confusing, and a lot of misinformation was spread.

Look at my post above, where capfriendly themselves clarify.

Well if you can't trust Bob McKenzie to give accurate info, then I give up.

 

[Marshy]

Read that tweet over again. It clearly states the leafs total cap hit last year was $67 pre Nylander, and $74 million after Nylander.

74-67
Does that equal 10 or 7?

Buddy. Go look on Capfriendly. They have it right. You are wrong.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Buddy. Go look on Capfriendly. They have it right. You are wrong.

I just sent you a tweet DIRECTLY form capfriendly.
They couldn’t be any clearer.

The leafs total cap hit last year went up $7 million after Nylander signed, not $10.2 million.

I’m fully aware that they list his cap hit as 10.2. But they themselves clarified that’s over FOUR months, and prorates to 6.96 over the full season.

This reddit thread from last week also explains it well.

www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/c6avme/clarification_on_prorated_salary_cap_hits_on/

Listen, I was like you a couple months ago. I was making your precise argument. Then somebody showed me the facts, and I just admitted I was wrong.

That’s what you should do as well. Actually read the clarifications I’ve linked that capfriendly themselves have made.

 

[Kiwi]

I doubt it because of what it will take to sign him. Some teams will balk and the teams that do not will offer less because they will have to pay him.

Pretty much, it's the Nylander conundrum all over again

I say if no offersheet is coming in or he won't sign one that already been offered just sit and wait

I genuinely believe the kid wants to be a Leaf and the team wants to keep him, as long as negotiations don't turn toxic and emotional I think something can be worked out even if it is just a bridge

 

[Sypher04]

Why the f*** is this even an argument. It doesn't matter in the slightest (regarding Nylander's first year hit vs salary)

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Well if you can't trust Bob McKenzie to give accurate info, then I give up.

It’s not just Mackenzie. It was initially misunderstood, and it’s spread like wild fire. I heard a tsn panel make the same mistake just the other day.

Everybody in the world saw the Nylander signing capfriendly tweets. But almost nobody saw the clarification follow up tweets. And that’s left us where we are.