Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[shakes]

I would send he and his agent a letter of intent. Basically set a deadline and if he isn't signed he won't be playing the season and not traded.

Or they could pull a Marner and say that they will not be negotiating during the season and that the deadline is training camp. They should do that anyway as I don't believe they get the same benefits that they did when Nylander held out.

 

[Marshy]

Or they could pull a Marner and say that they will not be negotiating during the season and that the deadline is training camp. They should do that anyway as I don't believe they get the same benefits that they did when Nylander held out.

Haha... karma is a bitch!

 

[The Man with a Plan]

But he is a 22 year old 90+ point player he is worth no less than 10.5 to me kuch is a bad compare able because he even at 9.5 is on a bargain contract

Yes he is on a bargain deal but the point remains He is worth 11 million and Mitch is around 9.5

 

[Mess]

There's more to the equation.

Is Marner at fair market value worth more than 2 firsts, a 2nd, and 3rd? Absolutely. But Marner would of course never sign a fair market value offer sheet.

But is a heavily overpaid Marner worth more than 2 firsts, a 2nd, and 3rd? Probably not.

Offerheets are not about fair market value, there intent is to price the player out of his own market and thus the original team from matching.

You're trying to successfully poach not trying to get him at market value, nor make it comfortable for his own team to match. That is the #1 objective behind an OS.

A $10.5 mil X 5 year OS is actually well above market value for Marner based on reasonable comparables, and ridiculous if you compare it to say Kucherov that put up 128 points and signed $9.5 mil X 8 (while bringing home the Art Ross, Hart trophies and Ted Lindsay Award as MVP and leading scorer of the league). Marner is not worth +$2 mil more then the OS inflated Aho price.

We have just become so desensitized in Toronto by the contracts their handing out to their players that threshold above seems like an obvious match for Leafs, and the compensation picks not enough to walk away even if you wanted or thought it was best business decision to do so.

 

[Gallagbi]

Exactly.

Dubas has arranged it that the leafs have the cap space to match up to 10.5

If Marner signs 10.5 with another team, the leafs insta match. So what would be the point?

At least with Aho, Montreal structured the contract in a way that made it difficult of Carolina to match. So there was hope.

What would be the point of a 10.5x5 offer sheet to Marner?

They thought they did, but not really

 

[Marshy]

Or they could pull a Marner and say that they will not be negotiating during the season and that the deadline is training camp. They should do that anyway as I don't believe they get the same benefits that they did when Nylander held out.

But in all seriousness....Leafs should take the high road and say you know what...that 10.5M cap hit is available for the taking until Dec 1st!

What is the 10.5M cap hit correspond to in real dollars on Dec 1? Anyone? Gotta be close to 6.96M LOL.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Offerheets are not about fair market value, there intent is to price the player out of his own market and thus the original team from matching.

You're trying to successfully poach not trying to get him at market value, nor make it comfortable for his own team to match. That is the #1 objective behind an OS.

A $10.5 mil X 5 year OS is actually well above market value for Marner based and reasonable comparables, and ridiculous if you compare it to say Kucherov that put up 128 points and signed $9.5 mil X 8. Marner is not worth +$2 mil more then the OS inflated Aho price.

We have just become so desensitized in Toronto by the contracts their handing out to their players that threshold above seems like an obvious match for Leafs, and the compensation picks not enough to walk away even if you wanted or thought it was best business decision to do so.

I’m just saying... a 10.5x5 offer sheet almost certainly won’t work on a Toronto star player... but probably would in Carolina. If the team actually wanted the offer sheet to work, wouldn’t they have tried it on Aho?

 

[paulhiggins]

Sign him and either trade him or Nylander or both for another defender and winger. Then move on. Reduce the drama and uncertainty in the clubhouse.

Wouldn't bother me if they got rid of all Nylander, Matthews AND Marner so I'd have some guys to cheer for that aren't greedy, soft and entitled. Did they get here like that our did we make them into that? Time to send a message for the future.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

But in all seriousness....Leafs should take the high road and say you know what...that 10.5M cap hit is available for the taking until Dec 1st!

What is the 10.5M cap hit correspond to in real dollars on Dec 1? Anyone? Gotta be close to 6.96M LOL.

On a dec 1st contract, if the aav is 10.5 years (let’s say) 2-5, it’s also 10.5 year one.

The “higher year one cap hit” theory was debunked long ago.

 

[LaPlante94]

Wouldn't bother me if they got rid of all Nylander, Matthews AND Marner so I'd have some guys to cheer for that aren't greedy, soft and entitled. Did they get here like that our did we make them into that? Time to send a message for the future.

So we're basically gonna become like the Ottawa Senators? I know Melnyk wants to relocate the team but damn.

 

[Notsince67]

Only in your head. Centres are significantly more involved in the game; they deserve to be paid more

Whatever that means.

 

[GrunbeldDragonKnight]

I also blame Mitch's other Dad, Marleau for this ordeal. He no doubt taught the kids how to fleece their GM just like he did. When I hear about Marleau's reputation I can't help but gag. This guy only signed here for the third year payout he had no intention of playing in. These guys learned how to put on a facade in the media but act like nothing but greedy assholes during negotiations. I doubt much of what we hear is true, but if Marner thinks he is or has been disrespected by a team and fanbase that has nothing but love for him I don't know what to say. If these guys truly cares about each other they would sacrifice a million or two to keep their 'Dad' on the roster and to allow the GM to do everything within his power to mould the team into a cup contender. These contracts have made us the laughing stock of the NHL. Unprecedented. I can't believe I ever criticized the Oilers.... We are worse.

 

[Mess]

I’m just saying... a 10.5x5 offer sheet almost certainly won’t work on a Toronto star player... but probably would in Carolina. If the team actually wanted the offer sheet to work, wouldn’t they have tried it on Aho?

Who knows maybe at $9.5 mil for Aho, Canes wouldn't have matched, different return and another million more than fair market in overpayment.

I don't disagree that a 10.5 X 5 mil OS won't work on a Toronto based star player, but ask yourself why that is ?

Its the #1 reason Marner is using his own teammates AM and JT in the Toronto market and ignoring league wide comparables in other markets. Prices in Toronto are not transferable at par, as Toronto market overpays to play.

Its also why you can't use the +$2 mil more than Aho reasonable argument as not fair market for Marner as a direct player comparable. He isn't worth +$2 mil more AAV per year, but that argument will not work on a Toronto star player, and he knows it.

If Marner played in Carolina he would likely be quite content playing for the new Aho contract, and couldn't leverage the Toronto market to his own financial gain.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Wouldn't bother me if they got rid of all Nylander, Matthews AND Marner so I'd have some guys to cheer for that aren't greedy, soft and entitled. Did they get here like that our did we make them into that? Time to send a message for the future.

Preposterous.

 

[Future]

I hope Dubas puts the hammer down on Marner. Sign within the next two weeks or you’re traded. If we have to trade him we’re going to get quite the haul and ideally a very talented defenseman.

I don’t care anymore. If little Marner doesn’t want to play in front of his friends and family anymore, ship him to Columbus Ohio or Long Island.

 

[nuck]

$10.5 mil X 5 years would be 2 X 1sts + 2nd + 3rd.

Leafs are not willing to give him that but an OS at those levels would.

$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

$10.5 x 5 they match. $10,569 x 5 maybe not. I don't know that the 5 year OS is very attractive to any club because that is absolute top dollar and then a bidding war for the next deal and he has already shown he will probably walk to the highest bidder. You could argue Aho just used the Habs to get the term he wanted, and that other teams are not going to be anxious to be used as levers.

Mitch is a special player but personally I let him walk for 4 firsts and circle back in five years. The next deal will likely cost the same and they can create a more balanced lineup with the cap savings this year and potentially be just as competitive. If RFAs are going are going to chase the dollar like in basketball then teams may be more prone to look for shorter term deals where you overpay but you pay for premium $ for peak years and when the player shows any decline the salary declines as well on their next deal. It will just take us a while to get used to not having players for their whole careers with one team. An evolution of the game following the lead of other sports.

 

[GrunbeldDragonKnight]

Who knows maybe at $9.5 mil for Aho, Canes wouldn't have matched, different return and another million more than fair market in overpayment.

I don't disagree that a 10.5 X 5 mil OS won't work on a Toronto based star player, but ask yourself why that is ?

Its the #1 reason Marner is using his own teammates AM and JT in the Toronto market and ignoring league wide comparables in other markets. Prices in Toronto are not transferable at par, as Toronto market overpays to play.

Its also why you can't use the +$2 mil more than Aho reasonable argument as not fair market for Marner as a direct player comparable. He isn't worth +$2 mil more AAV per year, but that argument will not work on a Toronto star player, and he knows it.

If Marner played in Carolina he would likely be quite content playing for the new Aho contract, and couldn't leverage the Toronto market to his own financial gain.

So the Leafs pay a luxury Leaf tax for the privilege of having said player?

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I also blame Mitch's other Dad, Marleau for this ordeal. He no doubt taught the kids how to fleece their GM just like he did. When I hear about Marleau's reputation I can't help but gag. This guy only signed here for the third year payout he had no intention of playing in. These guys learned how to put on a facade in the media but act like nothing but greedy *******s during negotiations. I doubt much of what we hear is true, but if Marner thinks he is or has been disrespected by a team and fanbase that has nothing but love for him I don't know what to say. If these guys truly cares about each other they would sacrifice a million or two to keep their 'Dad' on the roster and to allow the GM to do everything within his power to mould the team into a cup contender. These contracts have made us the laughing stock of the NHL. Unprecedented. I can't believe I ever criticized the Oilers.... We are worse.

So excited for Marner to sign, never have to look at this thread again.

 

[ownal]

I hope Dubas puts the hammer down on Marner. Sign within the next two weeks or you’re traded. If we have to trade him we’re going to get quite the haul and ideally a very talented defenseman.

I don’t care anymore. If little Marner doesn’t want to play in front of his friends and family anymore, ship him to Columbus Ohio or Long Island.

Keep him out of the Metro please.

 

[Gallagbi]

Yep. Matthews contributed to 85.5% of his team's goals while on the ice (1st among all players with >1000 minutes). Marner contributed to 73.4%, good for 38th. Matthews is incredible at driving offense

Out of curiosity, is that this year or career ? If this year, how does it compare to the years prior?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Out of curiosity, is that this year or career ? If this year, how does it compare to the years prior?

This year. For careers, Matthews is at 80% and Marner is around 73. 68 is average for forwards

 

[ToneDog]

My problem is that those are the excuses for why other leaf players were overpaid. I'm just applying those arguments now to Aho vs Marner.

With Matthews, it was "goals matter more than points." That's what everybody said. So I'm now just applying that to Aho vs Marner. Aho scores more goals.

With Nylander vs Pastrnak, I was told that Pasta is on the best line in hockey, so his stats are inflated. I'm now just applying that argument to Aho vs Marner. Marner plays with TAVARES for heavens sake.

If you agree that Matthews and Nylander are heavily overpaid, then at least you're consistent in your argument. I'll give you that.

But it seems with each new leaf contract, the entire metric for how a player should be paid changes entirely.

LOL. You are chasing a moving target. When Freddy comes up, it will be number of shots faced over SV% or GAA or whatever favours him.

 

[ORRFForever]

Or...you play the 1 year and the Leafs ship you out into the hinterlands of hockey where you toil 3 years on a garbage team and all of your stats take a hit thus messing up your ask for that precious first year of UFA

Why would the Leafs do that? If they sign Marner for 4 @ $8M, they are better off to make the most of the extra Cap space and enjoy the run.

 

[Gallagbi]

This year. For careers, Matthews is at 80% and Marner is around 73. 68 is average for forwards

Perfect thanks. Was interested to know if the linemates played much of a factor since Marner saw an uptick there this year and vice versa for Matthews

 

[socko]

The leafs can sign Marner up to Dec 1st. There is no cap penalty. That has long ago been debunked.

This misinformation needs to be corrected.

It has not been debunked. It's true. Nylander carried a $10,277,778 cap hit this past season because of his holdout.