Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[43Kadri43]

Centers vs wingers are a bit of a myth.

Only in your head. Centres are significantly more involved in the game; they deserve to be paid more

 

[thewave]

This thread is suffering from TMP (Too many Paul's)

 

[Mess]

Just sign already!!!

The sides are so far apart that an OS is really the only logical way out now to end this.

Leafs are said to have offered a $10.5 mil X 8 year deal (buying up 4 years of UFA status) to Marner, but Mitch wants a deal similar to Matthews of $10.5-11 mil X 5 years only (selling off only 1 year of UFA status)

So if Marner gets a team to give him his $10.5 mil X 5 years OS and Leafs match its a WIN WIN for him as he gets his contract and his team of choice, and forced the GMs hand to his will.

Without the OS what logical reason would Dubas have to change positions from wanting 8 years if Marner wants double digits to agreeing to get to 5 years at the same rate?

So your post should be just sign the offersheet already!!

 

[Big Shot]

Sorry if you’ve explained this already, but I’d like to understand why you believe 10.5 x 5 is a ‘Fair’ offer for Mitch? To clarify, I’m not being condescending, I’m genuinely curious. Although I can see the leafs ultimately giving into a deal like that (maybe), I definitely don’t believe it to be fair. It’s an Overpayment in my books. I don’t see him as being worth 2 mil more then Aho or only 1 mil less then Matthews. He should be at most 9.5 x 5 in my opinion

Sign him and either trade him or Nylander or both for another defender and winger. Then move on. Reduce the drama and uncertainty in the clubhouse.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

The sides are so far apart that an OS is really the only logical way out now to end this.

Leafs are said to have offered a $10.5 mil X 8 year deal (buying up 4 years of UFA status) to Marner, but Mitch wants a deal similar to Matthews of $10.5-11 mil X 5 years only (selling off only 1 year of UFA status)

So if Marner gets a team to give him his $10.5 mil X 5 years and Leafs match its a WIN WIN for him as he gets his contract and his team of choice.

Even if you think Marner is a little better than Aho (which I think is VERY debatable)... is he really two million aav and 1 extra first round pick better?

Cheap/poor Carolina probably wouldn't have matched Aho 10.5x5, and the leafs almost certainly will for Marner. So why wouldn't they have just offered it to Aho? It doesn't make any sense.

I also don't think Tampa would match 10.5x5 for Point, and I question if the Avs' would for Rantanen. So why on earth would they go for Marner?

None of this makes any sense. It's not going to happen.

 

[Superstar]

The sides are so far apart that an OS is really the only logical way out now to end this.

Leafs are said to have offered a $10.5 mil X 8 year deal (buying up 4 years of UFA status) to Marner, but Mitch wants a deal similar to Matthews of $10.5-11 mil X 5 years only (selling off only 1 year of UFA status)

So if Marner gets a team to give him his $10.5 mil X 5 years and Leafs match its a WIN WIN for him as he gets his contract and his team of choice.

Not sure how an OS would be the way out if no other team is overpaying Marner on an OS...if he doesn't sign and it goes into the start of the season, he's going to have to sit out and lose money because the Leafs won't have the cap space to sign him then. He's got alot to lose if his camp can't come to an agreement...I'm thinking it's going to be a 3 year bridge deal.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I just can't see another organization willing to offer sheet a Leaf player, I think the revenge factor will stop teams, Leafs Org carries a big hammer in the hockey world

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not sure how an OS would be the way out if no other team is overpaying Marner on an OS...if he doesn't sign and it goes into the start of the season, he's going to have to sit out and lose money because the Leafs won't have the cap space to sign him then. He's got alot to lose if his camp can't come to an agreement...I'm thinking it's going to be a 3 year bridge deal.

The leafs can sign Marner up to Dec 1st. There is no cap penalty. That has long ago been debunked.

This misinformation needs to be corrected.

 

[Marshy]

No team is helping the Leafs to get Marner signed.

Only a massive overpayment OS will the Leafs walk away from and take the 4 X first rounders. No team is overpaying in $ and picks and furthermore Marner won't even be signing an overpayment OS because he knows he's gone if he does. He's not going anywhere as everyone knows. It's a bluff.

Now you can say you don't know that to be a fact. To that I would say - time will tell if I am wrong or right.

 

[RoadWarrior]

The sides are so far apart that an OS is really the only logical way out now to end this.

Leafs are said to have offered a $10.5 mil X 8 year deal (buying up 4 years of UFA status) to Marner, but Mitch wants a deal similar to Matthews of $10.5-11 mil X 5 years only (selling off only 1 year of UFA status)

So if Marner gets a team to give him his $10.5 mil X 5 years OS and Leafs match its a WIN WIN for him as he gets his contract and his team of choice, and forced the GMs hand to his will.

Without the OS what logical reason would Dubas have to change positions from wanting 8 years if Marner wants double digits to agreeing to get to 5 years at the same rate?

So your post should be just sign the offersheet already!!

Basically if Marner doesn't get an offer sheet for a 4 or 5 year deal he will have to capitulate or hold out like Nylander.

The reality is that no team is gong to give up 4 1st round picks on a 5 year contract. The earlier proposed offers from NYI or NJ was 7 years and rejected by Marner as too long.

 

[Marshy]

Teams might give Marner his $11M AAV but not for 5 years. They will want 7. Just like the Leafs do.

 

[LaPlante94]

Goals per game are a bit of a joke. Why not total goals? Why not primary points? Because he has only hit 40 goals 3 years ago as a career high. He was 17th in goals this year and 44th in points. The torquing around here is something else.

This argument might be worth something if secondary assists weren't a thing.

 

[thewave]

No team is helping the Leafs to get Marner signed.

Only a massive overpayment OS will the Leafs walk away from and take the 4 X first rounders. No team is overpaying in $ and picks and furthermore Marner won't even be signing an overpayment OS because he knows he's gone if he does. He's not going anywhere as everyone knows. It's a bluff.

Now you can say you don't know that to be a fact. To that I would say - time will tell if I am wrong or right.

I would send he and his agent a letter of intent. Basically set a deadline and if he isn't signed he won't be playing the season and not traded.

 

[Mess]

Even if you think Marner is a little better than Aho (which I think is VERY debatable)... is he really two million aav and 1 extra first round pick better?

Cheap/poor Carolina probably wouldn't have matched Aho 10.5x5, and the leafs almost certainly will for Marner. So why wouldn't they have just offered it to Aho? It doesn't make any sense.

I also don't think Tampa would match 10.5x5 for Point, and I question if the Avs' would for Rantanen. So why on earth would they for Marner?

None of this makes any sense. It's not going to happen.

In real life Marner is only marginally better than Aho. Leafs should be getting Mitch on a deal similar to the OS the Aho just signed.

However offersheets are not based on player comparables, they're based on compensation levels to acquire that player.

If some team called up Dubas and offered him 2 X 1sts, 2nd and 3rd for Marner do you think he would take it? If the answer is NO then you have your answer if some team offersheets Marner and $10.5 mil X 5 years as to what Dubas would do.

Ditto for TB with point Point or Colorado with Rantanen. I believe all 3 teams wouldn't prefer the picks to their own player, as the compensation isn't high enough to walk away. IMO

 

[Mr Hockey]

Teams might give Marner his $11M AAV but not for a years. They will want 7. Just like the Leafs do.

cost to sign Marner:

• Leafs 10+ AAV
• Other teams 10+ AAV and four 1st round picks

 

[The Man with a Plan]

10mm per for how long. I was unaware of any offer.

I believe it was CJ who said it was a 8x10 offer that was turned down. madness

 

[Marshy]

cost to sign Marner:

• Leafs 10+ AAV
• Other teams 10+ AAV and four 1st round picks

Correct. Cost to aquire for other teams is just too high for a player of Marner's calibre.

 

[Mess]

Basically if Marner doesn't get an offer sheet for a 4 or 5 year deal he will have to capitulate or hold out like Nylander.

The reality is that no team is gong to give up 4 1st round picks on a 5 year contract. The earlier proposed offers from NYI or NJ was 7 years and rejected by Marner as too long.

$10.5 mil X 5 years would be 2 X 1sts + 2nd + 3rd.

Leafs are not willing to give him that but an OS at those levels would.

$8,454,872 to $10,568,589: Two first-round picks plus second and third-round picks
$10,568,590 and over: Four first-round picks

 

[Mr Hockey]

Correct. Cost to aquire for other teams is just too high for a player of Marner's calibre.

yep

 

[Throw More Waffles]

In real life Marner is only marginally better than Aho. Leafs should be getting Mitch on a deal similar to the OS the Aho just signed.

However offersheets are not based on player comparables, they're based on compensation levels to acquire that player.

If some team called up Dubas and offered him 2 X 1sts, 2nd and 3rd for Marner do you think he would take it? If the answer is NO then you have your answer if some team offersheets Marner and $10.5 mil X 5 years as to what Dubas would do.

Ditto for TB with point Point or Colorado with Rantanen. I believe all 3 teams wouldn't prefer the picks to their own player, as the compensation isn't high enough to walk away. IMO

There's more to the equation.

Is Marner at fair market value worth more than 2 firsts, a 2nd, and 3rd? Absolutely. But Marner would of course never sign a fair market value offer sheet.

But is a heavily overpaid Marner worth more than 2 firsts, a 2nd, and 3rd? Probably not.

In the modern nhl, a players trade value is primarily determined by the value of the contract, not overall skill of the player.
Kadri (who just got us Barrie and Kerfoot) would have gotten the leafs pretty much nothing if he made 8 million a year.

 

[Marshy]

Leafs are matching under 4 firsts threshold and everyone knows it so it's a waste of time to submit that OS unless your goal is to help the Leafs sign Marner and drive RFA salary costs up for every team.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Leafs are matching under 4 firsts threshold and everyone knows it so it's a waste of time to submit that OS unless your goal is to help the Leafs sign Marner and drive RFA salary costs up for every team.

Exactly.

Dubas has arranged it that the leafs have the cap space to match up to 10.5

If Marner signs 10.5 with another team, the leafs insta match. So what would be the point?

At least with Aho, Montreal structured the contract in a way that made it difficult of Carolina to match. So there was hope.

What would be the point of a 10.5x5 offer sheet to Marner?

 

[Mr Hockey]

I wouldn't doubt the NHL head office sent an email out prior to this summers free agency to all teams warning them to not do anything dumb with the offer sheets

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Only in your head. Centres are significantly more involved in the game; they deserve to be paid more

Yep. Matthews contributed to 85.5% of his team's goals while on the ice (1st among all players with >1000 minutes). Marner contributed to 73.4%, good for 38th. Matthews is incredible at driving offense

 

[Marshy]

C'mon Mitch. Fire Paul and sign on the dotted line!