Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIII

[Marshy]

Dubas is young. He admitted making mistakes on the Nylander contract/holdout. Facing offersheet potential for Matthews he gave 8 year term money to him on a 5 year deal.

Anyone think he needs this Marner contract to be a win? I mean he can't be taken to the woodshed again. No agent will ever take him seriously. It would be career suicide.

So what can he do? There are no good options. I'm reminded of the fictional character Keyser Söze. As the story goes...

Rival Hungarian gangsters invade his house while he is away, rape his wife, and hold his children hostage. When Söze arrives, the gangsters kill one of his children and demand he surrender his business. Instead, Söze kills his own family and all but one of the Hungarians, who he knows will tell his cohorts what has happened. Once his family is buried, Söze massacres the Hungarian Mafia, killing them, their families, their friends, and even people who owe them money.


Dubas needs to kill one of his family. Ferris will tell the tale how he had Dubas cornered but rather than overpay the hometown hero he sent him packing while Marner sobbed and offered to take $8.5M X 8 - but it was too late.

 

[biotk]

What about injuries? If a Marlie comes up to replace...say, an injury to a bigger salary player - Leafs bank the difference in salaries on the cap? How does it work does the injured player have to miss a certain amount of time for the Leafs to get the cap break?

As far as I know:

1) If the Leafs place a player on IR it must be for a minimum of 7 days. It provides no cap relief, but opens up a roster spot. As I don't think the Leafs will be running a full 23 player roster this wouldn't make a difference and any injury resulting in a player being brought up would simply cost the team more cap space, unless

2) If the Leafs place a player on LTIR it must be for a minimum of 24 days and a minimum of 10 games. It would provide cap relief for the duration of the LTIR if the player going on LTIR was a higher salary. So for instance if the Leafs place a player on LTIR for 20% of the season who had a cap hit of 3M and replaced that player with a player from the Marlies making 1M then the Leafs would get a max of (3M - 1M) x 20% = 400K cap relief (and note that max would only occur if the Leafs were right against the cap).

Hyman and Dermott may start the season on LTIR. Depends on if Marner is signed. During the season for routine short-term injuries - those are going to cause huge headaches with the cap.

 

[biotk]

I think Cody Ceci was signed not because he's actually wanted but to bring the cap space available inline to what Dubas wants to pay Marner...Dubas: "Mitch, you can see the cap room we have." Ceci will end up traded or on waivers and with a 1 year contract someone will claim him

Ceci was signed because he is actually wanted. The Leafs for the first time in the forever have 2 top-4 RHD.

 

[Notsince67]

Ceci was signed because he is actually wanted. The Leafs for the first time in the forever have 2 top-4 RHD.

You have a lot more confidence in him than I do.

 

[biotk]

You have a lot more confidence in him than I do.

The confidence, or lack thereof, that posters have is irrelevant. What Dubas has said both pre-trade and post-trade is relevant.

 

[Notsince67]

The confidence, or lack thereof, that posters have is irrelevant. What Dubas has said both pre-trade and post-trade is relevant.

That he cant pick top pairing D's very well?

 

[Nineteen67]

No he didn’t.

His cap hit was 10.27 over 4 months. It prorates to 6.96 over a full season.

Capfriendly has sent tweets clarifying this. You can also look at the leafs 2018-19 cap breakdown by player. Nylander only counted 6.96 against the cap last year.

Note: I don’t think this is off topic. It’s specifically in reference to what happens if Marner doesn’t sign by oct 2nd.

Thanks for the clarification. Makes more sense now.

 

[biotk]

That he cant pick top pairing D's very well?

You are free to believe whatever you want.

 

[HolyCrap]

That he cant pick top pairing D's very well?

They don’t grow on trees and he at least added Barrie. Top pairing Ds are hard to get. Do you suggest trading Marner for one?

 

[Notsince67]

They don’t grow on trees and he at least added Barrie. Top pairing Ds are hard to get. Do you suggest trading Marner for one?

Ceci barely passes as a third pair on a crap defense

 

[HolyCrap]

Ceci barely passes as a third pair on a crap defense

I wasn’t talking about Ceci. Lol. That was very obvious.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Ceci barely passes as a third pair on a crap defense

He played over 22 minutes a game last season.

He played poorly against top opposition while playing big minutes. Let’s see how he does as our #4/5 guy before we write him off.

He’s a big question mark, but I’m excited to see what he can do. And if he fails - it’s only a one year deal. We have Sandin, Liljegren, and possibly Kivihalme who should be able to jump in soon

 

[Notsince67]

He played over 22 minutes a game last season.

He played poorly against top opposition while playing big minutes. Let’s see how he does as our #4/5 guy before we write him off.

He’s a big question mark, but I’m excited to see what he can do. And if he fails - it’s only a one year deal. We have Sandin, Liljegren, and possibly Kivihalme who should be able to jump in soon

I can forgive rookies.

 

[hfman]

Dubas is young. He admitted making mistakes on the Nylander contract/holdout. Facing offersheet potential for Matthews he gave 8 year term money to him on a 5 year deal.

Anyone think he needs this Marner contract to be a win? I mean he can't be taken to the woodshed again. No agent will ever take him seriously. It would be career suicide.

So what can he do? There are no good options. I'm reminded of the fictional character Keyser Söze. As the story goes...

Rival Hungarian gangsters invade his house while he is away, rape his wife, and hold his children hostage. When Söze arrives, the gangsters kill one of his children and demand he surrender his business. Instead, Söze kills his own family and all but one of the Hungarians, who he knows will tell his cohorts what has happened. Once his family is buried, Söze massacres the Hungarian Mafia, killing them, their families, their friends, and even people who owe them money.


Dubas needs to kill one of his family. Ferris will tell the tale how he had Dubas cornered but rather than overpay the hometown hero he sent him packing while Marner sobbed and offered to take $8.5M X 8 - but it was too late.

dude




what are you on

 

[Notsince67]

dude




what are you on

Had to check calandar to make sure it wasnt April 20

 

[BertCorbeau]

At the end of the day I don’t think you should be paying 4 players half the cap and not one is a defensemen.

If you are taking up half the cap it should be spread out over 3 forwards, 2 D.
Say in the next 3 years (Rielly is UFA) the cap is going to 84-86 mil. That’s 43 mil half on the high end. This year it’s ok but moving forward:

Matthews 11.634
Tavares 11
Rielly (next deal 8)?
Barrie (next deal 7)?
Forward 7-10 mil. Not 2.

That’s 47 high end. Plus new deal Andersen.

The 4 forward thing, or 3 forwards double digits is pushing the team envelope.

I believe that the Leafs feel Marner is a better long-term piece than Nylander, but I also believe they're trying to manage to keep both of them for this season for a contending season .. The idea being that Nylander's value could really rebound this season, after he struggled coming out of his holdout. With rebuilt value the Leafs could really get a haul of picks/prospects next off-season to open up cap space and re-sign one of the defensemen (likely Barrie).

 

[Fogelhund]

I believe that the Leafs feel Marner is a better long-term piece than Nylander, but I also believe they're trying to manage to keep both of them for this season for a contending season .. The idea being that Nylander's value could really rebound this season, after he struggled coming out of his holdout. With rebuilt value the Leafs could really get a haul of picks/prospects next off-season to open up cap space and re-sign one of the defensemen (likely Barrie).

I don't think cap space is an issue for next year. They should easily be able to sign two of Barrie, Muzzin and Dermott.

Barrie at $7.5 and Muzzin at $6 is doable. They make $6.75 on the cap now, cap should go up by $2-3 mil. Remove Ceci's $4.5 add in Lily at $.863, remove Hyman and replace with $1 mil or less, and you are good. If it's Barrie and Dermott, you've got even more room..that's without moving Nylander.

 

[horner]

I think Cody Ceci was signed not because he's actually wanted but to bring the cap space available inline to what Dubas wants to pay Marner...Dubas: "Mitch, you can see the cap room we have." Ceci will end up traded or on waivers and with a 1 year contract someone will claim him

Mmmmmmm
Then we could have let him walk and us the money to sign another dman ,?
I don't think any team like to give away money.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

What? Kane had lead his team through deep playoff performances and had very similar numbers to Marner through this point of there careers, his deal over 5 years as a % of a 81.5M cap would be around 9M

11M isn't even the ballpark, it's the concourse outside the stadium and just saying he deserves it doesn't actually mean anything, give me an RFA winger straight out of there ELC thats got within 2M of 11M adjusted for an 81.5M cap?

If you massively overpay him, don't win the cup this season then start having to dismantle the roster because your cap structure is ****** what's your plan for winning then?

You won't need to dismantle your roster the pieces that matter are all locked up Marner is the last one.

I believe in keeping your core and when it is time, you switch out the depth that's what good teams do they pay their stars, yes it means some tough decisions down the road but that is what it is.

If keep Mitch Marner means Zach Hyman has to go in 2 years when his deal is up that sucks but it is what it is Mitch Marner is far more important.

Draft well and you can replace the Brown's the Hyman's even Kapanen and Johnsson when the time comes it is why I don't worry about replacing Brown because I know there is somebody on the Marlies that can do it.

But replacing the depth is a bridge you cross when it is time to cross it, right now the focus is a should be on winning a championship this season because they searson we are more loaded than we have been in 20 years or more and I didn't think that was possible after last season but here we are.

Worry but 20-2021 when it comes right we are heading into 19-20 and that is the focus.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Mmmmmmm
Then we could have let him walk and us the money to sign another dman ,?
I don't think any team like to give away money.

Have you seen Dubas's body of work?

 

[Sypher04]

lol Dubas has acquired 2 top pairing defensemen inside of 6 months and still gets shit on by people here.

 

[Dayjobdave]

lol Dubas has acquired 2 top pairing defensemen inside of 6 months and still gets **** on by people here.

Sure he acquired 2 top D but it’s not like he locked up two number one centres or fixed a cap challenge or anything.

 

[Sypher04]

Sure he acquired 2 top D but it’s not like he locked up two number one centres or fixed a cap challenge or anything.

Oh, I agree he's done a lot of good. I was merely addressing the subject that seemed to be on the last couple pages here.

 

[Fogelhund]

Oh, I agree he's done a lot of good. I was merely addressing the subject that seemed to be on the last couple pages here.

We just have to accept, that certain posters enjoy complaining, and always look for the downside of everything. Generally people who live in unhappy worlds. No logic, or proof, will ever change them from finding something to tear down.

 

[Bluelines]

Avg between goals and pts... 8,450,000 roughly. Easy peasy, it's basically the Aho contract. Assists are not important comparatively.

For Marner I think somewhere between $9.5 mil and $10.8 mil is a fair contract over 4 years.

I would agree for most players assists are not important but Marner is generating assists through purposeful control of the game, he is not just getting pigeon assists. With Marner he is purposefully breaking down the other teams defence to generate assists.